UK manufacturing activity index PMI. See what the "PMI Index" is in other dictionaries. Euro Area PMI chart

Services index) and aims to study the influence of the economy on the formation of the price space and provides high-quality information on business trends; in fact, it is an index of optimism for senior and middle management of the economy. This index is used to measure changes in new factory orders, industrial output, employment, and supplier inventories and speed.

The indicator is measured in % ranging from 0 to 100%, depending on the values ​​of the components:

PMI = 0.30*(New Orders) + 0.25*(Production) + 0.20*(Employment) + 0.15*(Supplier Deliveries) + 0.10*(Inventories)

Formal responses to survey participants' questions are limited to ratings of "higher" (more), "lower" (less) or "no change" compared to the previous month, and the respondent can also add their own comments. Each report component is compiled into a diffusion index, which is calculated as the sum of the simple percentage changes in the "above" and "below" values ​​plus one-half percentage of the "same" or "no change" responses. The diffusion index can fluctuate between 0 and 100% with different range characteristics: a value of 50% means no change; above 50% - improvement; and below 50% means decline. The resulting measure of business optimism is a composite diffuse index called the Purchasing Managers' Index, based on a weighted average of new orders, output, employment, lead times and inventories.

The questionnaire includes the following items:
· Production - Production;
· New orders (New orders from customers) - New orders;
· New - New export orders;
· Order backlogs - Backlog of Orders;
· Commodity Prices - Prices for goods;
· Inventories of purchased materials - Inventories of purchased materials;
· Imports (New import orders) - New import orders;
· Employment - Employment;
· Vendor Deliveries (Delivery time) - Delivery time;
· Items in short supply (Supplier) - goods of short-term supply.

The report is published at 10:00 a.m. Washington time or 6:00 p.m. Moscow time, usually on the 1st business day of the month following the National Assosiation of Purchasing Managers reporting month for the previous month.

Relationship with other indicators and features of the indicator behavior. According to the dynamics of the index, changes in industrial production, orders, industrial prices, employment, and, most importantly, the dynamics for six months in advance are usually predicted - if the index value is above 50%, the growth rate will increase, if the index value is below 50%, then the growth rate will fall and When the index reaches 44%, negative GDP growth should be expected.
The indicator is very important for analyzing the economy and financial markets. Data analysis is carried out at the following 5 levels:

1. Prospects for a turnaround in the business cycle.
2. General prospects for economic growth.
3. Inflation prospects.
4. Components of PMI/NAPM index.
5. The relationship between PMI, its components, and other indicators calculated by official government bodies.

3. Price distribution index(Prices diffusion index - diffusion index) is a leading indicator of inflation. The analysis showed that the Prices diffusion index predicts up to 59% of PPI fluctuations, incl. prices for semi-finished products and raw materials next month.

4. Forecasting the state of the business cycle based on the components of the NAPM report. provides a fairly complete display of the state of production. For example, at the exit from the recession phase, one should expect that the growth of the component of new orders (new orders) should predetermine the growth of production. An improving economy will cause increased employment and increased inventories. With some delay, prices will begin to reflect the strengthening economy. New orders index is also a leading indicator of weakness in the economy. Also, a decline in the business cycle is predicted for the employment and inventories components.

5. Correlation with other indices: for example, the employment diffusion index is very similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' manufacturing employment diffusion index.

The US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) improved over the past month, unexpectedly rising to 57.7% from 56% a month earlier, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed.

PHOTO: EPA/DEAN LEWINS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT

The index of business activity in US manufacturing (ISM Manufacturing) unexpectedly increased in February 2017 and reached 57.7% compared to 56% in January, according to the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM).

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the indicator to remain at the January level. Thus, the data has encouraged the market and suggests that the market business activity is holding up and the economy is picking up pace.

The situation also improved with consumer incomes, which increased last month by 0.4%, and expenses by 0.2%. Analysts had expected the income-expenses growth pair to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis.

At the same time, according to the research organization Marit Economics, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States worsened in February 2017 to 54.2 points compared to 55.0 points a month earlier. Thus, the indicators turned out to be lower than the forecasts of analysts, who bet on 54.4 points.

The report states that manufacturing activity in the US is on track to expand and develop at a rapid pace. Although the latest recovery was slightly weaker than seen at the start of 2017, this largely reflected moderation in new orders growth after hitting a 28-month peak in January, along with a slightly weaker increase in output. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a steady rise in inventory levels, driven by larger production schedules and expected improvement in customer demand.

As previously reported, the eurozone manufacturing PMI is at a 6-year high. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of 19 eurozone countries rose to 55.4 points in February 2017 compared to 55.2 points a month earlier, according to final data from the research organization IHS Markit.

The indicator hit a 70-month high, reflecting the most significant improvement in operating conditions in nearly six years.

The preliminary estimate was 55.5 points.

"Businesses clearly expect favorable conditions to continue. Firms are more optimistic about the outlook this year than at any time since the region's debt crisis," said Chris Williamson, senior economist at IHS Markit. "Companies are reporting stronger demand both domestically and in export markets, with the weakening euro supporting sales growth."

EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT

Greece continues to show a decline in manufacturing activity, while other countries are showing positive dynamics. At the same time, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany recorded the maximum growth in manufacturing PMI, Williamson said.

An indicator of activity in the German manufacturing sector rose from 56.4 points in January to 56.8 points in February. The indicator reached its maximum since May 2011.

France's manufacturing PMI fell from 53.6 to 52.2 last month. The indicator reached its lowest level in three months.

Meanwhile, the Italian manufacturing PMI rose from 53 to 55 points, reaching its highest level since December 2015.

Spain's manufacturing PMI stood at 54.8 in February, down from 55.6 the month before. Despite the decline, the indicator continues to demonstrate a significant improvement in operating conditions in the Spanish manufacturing sector.

At the same time, the indicator of activity in the Greek manufacturing sector increased from 46.6 points in January to 47.7 points in February. The PMI showed a decline in business activity in the country's manufacturing sector for the sixth month in a row, although the rate of decline was lower than the previous month.

Today, data was also released on the Russian market; the PMI index of Russian manufacturing industries dropped to 52.5 points in February compared to 54.7 points in January, according to IHS Marit data.

Thus, Russia's manufacturing PMI hit a 4-month low last month, but continued to indicate a significant improvement in market conditions relative to the long-term average.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

Source: IHS Markit

Production volumes and new orders continued their strong growth in February. However, the increase was the smallest since September, reflecting slower growth in the sector as a whole.

The growth of new orders was again restrained by the fall in export orders, which has been observed for three and a half years.

The rate of employment growth also slowed in February. Some companies hired additional staff to increase production capacity, while others streamlined operations by cutting jobs.

Purchasing activity in the manufacturing industry also decreased, but growth rates remained significant and were above long-term averages. At the same time, inventories of finished products and raw materials decreased.

Purchase prices rose again in February, but inflation rates were the second lowest in four years.

Despite slower activity last month, companies expect rising demand, new long-term contracts and renewed economic growth to boost output over the next 12 months.

"February data continues to point to a healthy sector. Market conditions have improved in line with long-term averages. Most encouragingly, optimism was at its strongest since May 2015," said Paul Smith, senior economist at IHS Markit.

At the same time, earlier the growth of manufacturing activity in the US slowed down in February compared to the previous month, being less than analysts' expectations. Companies began to spend and invest less.

The manufacturing business activity index (ManufacturingPMI) in the US manufacturing sector fell to 54.3 points in February from 55.0 points a month earlier, according to data from Markit Economics, which calculates this indicator. Analysts surveyed expected a slight decline to 54.7 points

The Business Activity Index (ServicesBusinessActivityIndex) in the US service sector declined from 55.6 points in January to 53.9 points in February. Although analysts had predicted an increase to 55.8 points, preliminary data from IHS Markit shows.

Thus, the slowdown in growth rates in the services sector in February suggests that there is a significant decline in the volume of new orders, and this was the worst indicator in the last five months. The services business activity index in February is also at its lowest level since September 2016.

"In February, we saw a sharp rebound in the manufacturing and services business activity indexes. This suggests that companies have become more cautious in their spending and investments. Overall, the indices remain level and correspond to economic growth of 2.5 % year-over-year in the first quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

As previously reported, the US service sector PMI rose to 51.9 points in September. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US services sector rose to 51.9 points in September 2016 from 51 points in August, preliminary data from IHS Markit show.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

The growth in business activity in the service sector in September was the highest since April.

At the same time, the US service sector recorded a decline in business confidence.

"The services sector showed mixed signals in September, with faster growth in activity during the month offset by gloomy leading indicators. While business activity posted its strongest gain since April, new business flows slowed and employment growth was the weakest in three and a half years. Optimism weakened "The outlook for next year is clouding the outlook to near post-crisis lows," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

"Furthermore, even with the recent surge in activity, overall economic growth remains weak. When these services sector results are added to industrial production data, business activity indices indicate that the economy is growing at an annual rate of only about 1% in III quarter," the expert said.

Definition of the term business activity index

What are they talking about business activity indices

PMI

Business Activity Index Faktura.ru

However, the main disadvantage of constructing stock indices based on a continuous sample is the problem of liquidity. The fact is that the last contract price is usually used to calculate the index. However, for some shares agreements may not be implemented for a long time, and the stock exchange index in such cases begins to “lag behind life.” If there are a lot of such shares, then the index becomes inertial and poorly meets the needs of investors.

The third problem in constructing a stock index is related to the fact that the market situation is constantly changing - bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions occur, new organizations emerge that are rapidly increasing their capitalization. On the other hand, the longer the history of the index, the greater its value - you can trace the reaction of the stock market in the past to certain events in different macroeconomic conditions, which provides good grounds for predicting further market movements. For this reason, a dilemma arises: if changes are made rarely, then the index begins to “lag behind the market,” if often, the index “loses history,” i.e., while maintaining the same name, it actually begins to reflect changes in another market sector. Therefore, from time to time, stock markets change the composition of the index - they remove some indices and introduce others in their place. There are no formal criteria for changing the composition of the sample and taking into account changes occurring in the market; in practice, these issues are resolved by those calculating the index, with the involvement of authoritative experts.

Integral (composite) indices

Despite the relative simplicity and convenience of calculating stock indices, they do not always reflect the economic cycle and, accordingly, the current state and dynamics of business activity. This shortcoming is especially pronounced in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, where there are no pronounced economic cycles, there are no stock exchanges or they are just beginning to develop. In addition, the stock index reflects past events. But investors are primarily interested in what may happen in the near future.

Taking into account these limitations, so-called integral indices of business activity are increasingly used in international practice. When developing such an index, an attempt is made to combine several indicators into one, which, due to its generality, would predict economic cycles most clearly. Therefore, the index is designed to cover all the main components of business activity in a country: employment, production, income, consumption, trade, investments, stocks, prices, money And loan and etc.

The components of the index are selected based on their economic significance, statistical adequacy and the possibility of operational measurement and accumulate both quantitative and qualitative information on various industries and areas. Such indices have the properties of a leading (predictive) indicator and are able to indicate the moment of change in the trend in economic activity. This happens because surveys systematize the opinions of a large number of people who are professionally engaged in “their” business in different industries, who know and feel development trends.

The most well-known index of this group is the IFO Institute index in Germany, which monthly assesses the level of business activity, as well as expectations for the next six months. It is formed by surveying more than 7 thousand managers. When calculating the index to assess the business activity of a company, the following formulations are used: good; satisfactory; bad. And to express your business expectations: more favorable; unchanging; more unfavorable.

To calculate the index IFO Four sectors are examined that, through numerous surveys, have been recognized as sectors that form the “face” of business activity in Germany. These include: production of goods, construction, and retail(Fig. 2). Based on them, graphs are drawn up demonstrating an assessment of business activity and an assessment of business expectations.

After this, a vector of business activity trends and a vector of expectations in general for the four industries are formed. The vector of development of the business environment is “added” to them and as a result, three vectors are obtained that make it possible to give a comprehensive assessment of the state and development of business activity in the country as a result of measures taken to create a favorable business environment2.

In such indices, the most important question is how to interpret their graphical meaning? After all, the index graphs themselves IFO do not have the slightest impact on the market. They only reflect the psychological, if you like, upward or downward trend that is currently taking over the market.

In general, graphical models that have been identified and classified over the past hundred years reflect important features of the PSYCHOLOGICAL state of the market. First of all, they indicate which sentiment - bullish or bearish3 - is currently dominant in the market. And if these models worked in the past, there is every reason to assume that they will work in the future, because they are based on human psychology, which does not change over the years. We can formulate the main signal of the index: the key to understanding the future lies in studying the past. Or it can be completely different: the future is just a repetition of the past.

The semantic interpretation of the IFO index is carried out in points: the higher its value, the more favorable the economic forecasts. The index value can vary from 80 to 120; the level of business activity in 2000 is taken as 100. Changes in the index are tracked over time (on a monthly basis) and are given as a percentage. Numbers below 100 are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development compared to the base period (in our case, 2000) and are clearly considered by the market as a negative factor. A value above 100 shows growing optimism among entrepreneurs, which in turn causes the euro (EUR) to strengthen; SWISS FRANK().

The main purpose of the chart is to help recognize a trend and follow it throughout its entire period of existence.

In this case, a correct assessment of the possible time for a trend reversal is important. To do this, any important signal for an increase or decrease in the market rate must pass through the values ​​of all indices. In other words, we can talk about the beginning of an upward trend only if the values ​​of all indices have covered their previous intermediate peaks. If this happens with only one index, then it is too early to talk about an upward trend in the market. The signals should not, of course, absolutely coincide with each other, but the less they are separated in time, the more reliable. If there is a divergence in the dynamics of the indices, it means that the previous trend is still in effect and the nature of the market has not changed. In particular, the IFO index graph clearly shows the moment when all three graphs (business activity, business expectations and business environment) sharply went down from the second half of 2008, indicating a sharp change in the trend in a negative direction and thus symbolizing the beginning of the crisis .

Another tool for “measuring” business activity are ratings compiled by large consulting and international rating agencies based on surveys and studying the opinions of executives of large companies around the world. Such indices do not reflect daily, weekly or monthly changes in business activity and have a number of significant differences from stock and integral indices:

The rating specifies a classification criterion by which a phenomenon is ranked, while the index itself is a criterion for assessing the development of a given phenomenon in dynamics (i.e., a relative value);

Ratings, as a rule, have a universal methodology, which is based on the calculation of indicators with an unambiguous interpretation. Therefore this methodology can be used for different countries. At the same time, all known business activity indices “inevitably” have elements of originality in their methodology, since they reflect the development features and components of the business environment in each specific country.

The listed differences reduce the attractiveness of ratings from the point of view of an operational tool for assessing business activity. However, their value lies in the fact that they provide a comprehensive picture of development world economy and business around the world as a whole and for specific continents, regions, and countries.

It is critically important for governments and businesses to “take the long view” and act on the challenges and opportunities that exist today and may arise tomorrow. According to responses from managers of large companies to the annual PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) survey, 72% of respondents believe that the problem of natural resource shortages will only worsen over time. However, only 26% believe that increasing the efficiency of technology can solve this problem. This suggests that competition behind Natural resources(primarily energy) will grow in the long term and will lead to fierce competition for access to them and, accordingly, an increase in the profitability of resource sectors.

The results of such surveys make it possible to determine the growth prospects of markets and individual companies, the emergence of new types of products and new customers. To maximize return on investments in the long term, determine the general directions of development of the company, management needs to have an understanding of the risks and opportunities in different regions of the world, monitor the development of other companies both from the point of view competition, as well as cooperation opportunities in international markets. Gaining access to this “global perspective” is especially important for big business, working at the transnational level (and for those who are just planning to enter it), carrying out strategic investments, designed for the medium and long term.

At each stage of development, it is important for a business to understand what exactly is needed to “grow beyond itself.” What are the limitations of development and what is important to change to achieve the goal. The answers to this question are not always simple and unambiguous.

Let's give just a few examples. The ranking, based on a McKinsey Global Institute study, showed that a third of the gap in labor efficiency in the Russian Federation compared to the USA is explained by outdated production facilities. It would seem that a fairly simple conclusion suggests itself - it is necessary to modernize the existing capacities and thereby increase their productivity by 30%.

However, as the study shows, another important reason for the lag is ineffective labor. To produce a ton of rolled steel in the Russian Federation, 3 times more people are required than in the United States. Thus, even when investing in the modernization of the industry, success will largely depend on skillfully optimized business processes, reducing the number of personnel and redistributing labor.

At the same time, comparison with leaders (in certain markets, in certain industries), often called today benchmarking, provides important indicators - both for the business itself and for the state. Continuing with the example of productivity in the Russian steel industry, we can cite the following comparison made by McKinsey experts: “If productivity in the sector increases to the level of the United States in 2007, this could lead (taking into account the expected retirement of steel workers) to the release of about 140 thousand . workers by 2020." It is obvious that the government and business need to solve this problem together, developing adequate options in order to ensure as painless a flow of excess labor to other sectors of the economy as possible.

Attempts to “measure” business activity in Uzbekistan

In 1996-2003 The Center for Effective Economic Policy (CEEP, now the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis under the Ministry of Economy), together with the State Committee on Statistics, conducted market research on the business activity of industrial enterprises.

When conducting the research, we used the method developed and used by the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). It is based on a survey and generalization of the opinions of respondents (company managers) about the main activities of enterprises in comparison with the previous quarter and the forecast of the situation for the next quarter.

When processing questionnaires received from respondents on questions of a qualitative nature, the relative frequency of each answer option was calculated as a percentage. Next, the difference in the relative frequencies of positive and negative responses to questions representing an index of change was calculated.

1. Traditional, contained in similar foreign questionnaires. This was supposed to achieve comparability of the results of market research across countries;

2. Related to the peculiarities of the development of the economy of Uzbekistan.

The results of the study of business activity of industrial enterprises were summarized by industry in ten large industries: non-ferrous, chemical and petrochemical, mechanical engineering, metalworking, printing, construction industry, light industry, food, flour milling, forestry, woodworking and pulp and paper.

The assessment of economic changes at industrial enterprises was carried out in the following main areas:

Assessment of the economic situation;

Use of production capacity;

Benefits and privileges for foreign investors.

Production infrastructure;

Non-productive infrastructure.

The final list of indicators shaping the business environment can be formulated after joint consultations with a wide range of stakeholders, both among entrepreneurs and the expert community. Here, the support of such organizations as the Commercial and Industrial Banks annually conducts surveys to assess the business environment in Uzbekistan and therefore currently has the most complete “set” of expert assessments of the quality and components of the business environment in Uzbekistan.

The effectiveness of the impact of the business environment on business activity should be reflected in the dynamics of certain indicators (indicators of business activity). What should be the list of these indicators? It is still difficult to give a definitive list, but I think that the results of changes in the business environment in the industrial sector should be reflected in the dynamics of the following indicators:

Industrial production index volume;

Employment;

Investments;

Export;

Modernization.

It should be noted that some of the above indicators may be interdependent with each other (for example, investment and ). In addition, not all of them may reflect factors in the business environment. Therefore, additional analysis is required of 1) the relationship of these indicators with each other and 2) the connection of each of the indicators with each of the factors of the business environment. Such an analysis requires numerous calculations and the establishment of the so-called “closeness” of the connection, which in the expert community is generally called the “matrix of correlation coefficients.” And regression coefficients between various components of the business environment and the resulting indicators will allow us to determine the weight values ​​of each of the business environment factors. This will allow us to “derive” the integral index of business activity in industry. In addition, the obtained coefficients correlations will make it possible to predict changes in business activity in the industrial sector in the short term.

After “testing” the construction of an index of business activity in industry, this experience can be multiplied by constructing similar indices in other industries and throughout the economy as a whole.

The dynamics of the listed indicators are supposed to be analyzed in quantitative (Goskomstat data) and qualitative measurements (surveys). Both quantitative and qualitative data will be generated from the same sample, which should reflect the characteristics of the general population. Taking into account the study of the IFC business environment, such a sample should include at least 500 representatives. However, the issue of determining the sample remains open and requires additional consultations with the expert community.

Since a significant part of the calculations will be based on Goskomstat data, which is formed primarily on a quarterly basis, it is advisable to also calculate the business activity index on a quarterly basis.

Only open dialogue and feedback with all stakeholders will help form the final vision of the business activity index, reflecting the current state and trends in business development in Uzbekistan.

Notes:

1 The very first average price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (July 3, 1884) included only 11 stocks of different companies, 9 of which were railroads. In this form, the index successfully existed until 1897, and then was divided into two components: an index of 12 industrial companies and an index of 20 railway companies. In 1928, the index of industrial companies no longer included 12, but 30 stocks, and in 1929, an index of utility companies also appeared.

2 The indices of this group include the business activity index of the Association of Managers and the Kommersant Publishing House in the Russian Federation, the Japanese Tankan business activity index, etc.

3, these terms are used primarily to characterize the general direction of price changes in the stock market (i.e., trend) and mean the following: “Bullish” is increasing, and “bearish” is decreasing.

4 According to the IFC, since 1991, more than 16 thousand acts have been adopted in Uzbekistan aimed at creating a favorable business climate.

Stock indices of the USA, Britain and the Russian Federation

IFO business activity index ().

IFO industry and business survey, May 2009. (index, 2000=100, seasonally adjusted)

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glossary.ru - glossary.ru

academic.ru - dictionaries and encyclopedias on Academician

fxeuroclub.ru - Forex currency market Euro club

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subcontract.ru - information support portal for small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses

review.uz - “Economic Review” magazine

Investor Encyclopedia. 2013 .

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business activity index- An index characterizing the state of the economy or its individual sectors in a particular country, as well as the conditions of the investment market (see also Investment Index) at certain periods and points in time. Used in fundamental... ... Technical Translator's Guide

Business Activity Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX- an index used in economic analysis, an indicator of types of activity, the dynamics of which reflect changes in the economic environment... Large economic dictionary

Chicago Managers Association Business Activity Index- monthly index based on a survey of industrial purchasing managers from Chicago and surrounding regions. The index characterizes the state of production orders, prices for manufactured products and inventories in warehouses. By… … Financial Dictionary

Business Activity Index of the National Association of Service Industry Managers- in the USA, a monthly report on the results of a survey of managers in the service sector. The survey is organized to assess changes occurring in the service sector. In English: National Association of Purchasing Managers services index English synonyms: NAPM... ... Financial Dictionary

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PMI (Project Management Institute) - This business activity in the industrial sector - It presents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. This index used to assess changes in new production orders, industrial production index volume, employment, as well as inventory and supplier speed. Figures below "45-50" are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development. Often by the amount of this index Psychological factors have a greater influence than the actual state of affairs. Since the volume industrial production index is not automatically a source of consumer demand, then to this indicator approach with caution. Has limited effect on. An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the exchange rate. The Eurozone summary is published on the first business day of each month at 09:00 GMT (Greenwich Mean Time).

PMI (Project Management Institute) (services) - in the service sector - It represents the results of a survey managers in the service sector in order to assess changes occurring in this industry. The numbers below "45-50" are indicator slowdown in economic development. Often the value of this index is more influenced by psychological factors than by the actual state of affairs. consumption of services tends to change at a relatively constant rate, therefore, sharp changes in the value of this indicator are influenced by psychological factors. Therefore, when analyzing the index, special attention is paid to this. Has limited impact on the market. An increase in the value of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the euro. Summary index by Eurozone published on the first day of each month at 09:00 GMT one day after the publication of the index in the field industry.

The PMI (Project Management Institute) index is

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Manufacturing index PMI - PMI (Project Management Institute) manufacturing. shows the level of business activity in the industrial sector. If, after a period of strengthening, the PMI (Project Management Institute) begins to show a decline, then this anticipates a downward turn in the business cycle and a collapse in industrial activity. If the PMI (Project Management Institute), having reached a minimum, turns upward, then this is a sign of future economic recovery.

PMI (Project Management Institute) is an index of industrial enterprises in the Chicago region. Represents survey results managers for procurement in the field industry from Chicago. This index affects the state of production orders, prices for manufactured products and inventories in warehouses. Figures below 50 are an indicator of a slowdown in the economy, and vice versa - signals growth in economic activity in the region if its value exceeds 50. It is closely watched as it is published shortly before the release of the National Association of Managers Business Activity Index (ISI, former NAPM). This index has a fairly high impact on the market, as it can give an idea of ​​​​what business activity will be like at the national level (ISI, former NAPM). An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

PMI (Project Management Institute) manufacturing - Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector - a monthly report on the results of a survey of managers in the manufacturing sector, organized to assess changes occurring in this area. Published monthly. The report is taken into account by the market. Index growth has a positive effect on the national currency exchange rate

The National Association of Managers Index - in the USA - is a monthly report on the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industrial sector, characterizing the influence of the economy on the formation of the price space. The report is used to evaluate changes in the area of ​​new production orders, volume industrial production index, employment, as well as inventory and speed work suppliers. The index is a fairly reliable indicator for predicting business cycle turning points.

Sources

WikiPedia - the free encyclopedia

WikiKnowledge - free encyclopedia

Great Soviet Encyclopedia

Dictionaries and encyclopedias on academician

Investor Encyclopedia. 2013 .

• Nikkei index

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PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) business activity index in the manufacturing sector calculated based on data provided by purchasing managers on production volume items, new orders, inventory levels and employment. PMI is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy of the country issuing the indicator.

PMI Index Calculation

The PMI index consists of five important components, each of which has its own strictly fixed percentage ratio in the overall value of 100%:

• the number of new orders in the production segment (new orders), which are allocated 30%;
• the employment rate is 20%;
• production volumes 25%;
• inventory indicator 10%;
• activities of suppliers (supplier deliveries) 15%.

In order to determine the values ​​of these individual factors that add up to the total percentage for a given period, all managers are asked a series of simple questions. In this case, the answers do not imply a detailed nature, but must correspond to the option used in the tests, that is, “yes”, “has not changed” and “no”.

The questions themselves are designed in such a way that the structure of the answers allows you to make an objective logical conclusion regarding the current indicator that the PMI index will demonstrate.

To compile the PMI manufacturing activity index, managers - survey participants - will be asked for their opinions regarding:

• intensity of production volumes (Production);
• number of new orders for export (New export orders);
• commodity value (Commodity prices);
• level of employment (Employment);
• deliveries (Vendor deliveries);
• import volumes (New import orders);
• the number of orders received from customers (New orders);
• volumes of goods for short-term deliveries (Items in short suddenly);
• state of the portfolio of unfulfilled orders (Order backlogs).

How does the publication of the manufacturing PMI affect exchange rates?

Exceeding value 50 indicates the growth of the manufacturing sector and is a positive factor for the national currency. A PMI reading below 50 indicates a slowdown.

PMI index in the manufacturing sector, it refers to survey or diffusion indices and allows you to track the dynamics of the economic cycle, being a leading indicator. The observed close correlation of the manufacturing PMI index with economic dynamics allows us to predict future growth rates.

It should be noted that the PMI business activity index should not be interpreted based on its momentary values. The specificity of its influence lies in the accuracy of determining economic cycles in the long term. So, for example, if the output value exceeds the 50% level, you can expect that the greatest increase in business cycles will be recorded after seven months.

It is also necessary to take into account that a decrease in value to 35% is a sure economic stagnation, which indicates serious problems in the country’s economy, which, naturally, will be directly reflected in the exchange rate of the national currency. At the same time, if the index remains above the 44% mark, then the reaction of investors will be ambiguous, since such values ​​usually indicate the possibility of a rapid recovery, and, therefore, such data do not provide serious reasons for concern.

When are PMI manufacturing activity indices published?

Eurozone countries and Great Britain

• Publication date: twice a month (preliminary and final indexes)
• Source: Markit Economics
• Website: www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
• Website: www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport

China

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
• Website: www.hsbc.com

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