Manufacturing activity index pmi uk. See what the "PMI Index" is in other dictionaries. Euro Area PMI chart

Services index) and aims to study the impact of the economy on the formation of the price space and provides high-quality information about business trends, in fact, it is an index of optimism for the top and middle management of the economy. This index is used to measure changes in new manufacturing orders, industrial output, employment, and inventory and supplier speed.

The indicator is measured in% in the range from 0 to 100%, and depending on the values ​​of the components:

PMI= 0.30*(New Orders) + 0.25*(Production) + 0.20*(Employment) + 0.15*(Supplier Deliveries) + 0.10*(Inventories)

Formal responses to the questions of survey participants are limited to ratings "higher" (more), "lower" (less) or "no change" compared to the previous month, the respondent can also add their own comments. Each component of the report is compiled into a diffusion index, which is calculated as the sum of the simple percentage changes in the above and below values, plus half the percentage of the "same" or "no change" responses. The diffuse index can fluctuate between 0 and 100% with different characteristics of the ranges: a value of 50% means no change; above 50% - improvement; and below 50% means a decline. The business sentiment summary is a composite diffuse index called the Purchasing Managers' Index, based on a weighted average of new orders, products, employment, lead times and inventories.

The following items are included in the questionnaire:
· Production - Production;
· New orders (New orders from customers) - New orders;
· New - New export orders;
· Order backlogs - Backlog of Orders;
· Commodity Prices - Commodity prices;
· Inventories of purchased materials - Stocks of purchased materials;
· Imports (New import orders) - New import orders;
Employment - Employment;
· Vendor Deliveries (Delivery time) - Delivery time;
· Items in short supply (Supplier) - short-term supply goods.

The report is published at 10:00 a.m. Washington DC or 6:00 p.m. Moscow time, usually on the 1st business day of the month following the reporting month for logistics (National Association of Purchasing Managers), for the previous month.

Relationship with other indicators and features of the indicator behavior. According to the index dynamics, changes in industrial production, orders, industrial prices, employment, and, most importantly, dynamics for six months ahead are usually predicted - if the index value is above 50%, the growth rate will increase, if the index value is below 50%, then the growth rate will fall and when the index reaches 44%, negative GDP growth should be expected.
The indicator is very important for the analysis of the economy and financial markets. Data analysis is carried out at the following 5 levels:

1. Prospects for a reversal of the business cycle.
2. General prospects for economic growth.
3. Prospects for inflation.
4. PMI/NAPM index components.
5. The relationship between PMI, its components, and other indicators calculated by official government bodies.

3. Price Distribution Index(Prices diffusion index) is a leading indicator of inflation. The analysis showed that the Prices diffusion index predicts up to 59% of PPI fluctuations, incl. prices for semi-finished products and raw materials next month.

4. Predicting the state of the business cycle from the components of the NAPM report. provides a fairly complete display of the state of production. For example, at the exit from the recession phase, one should expect that the growth of the new orders component should predetermine the growth of production. The improvement of the economy will cause employment growth and growth of inventories. With some delay, prices will begin to reflect the strengthening of the economy. New orders (new orders index) is also a leading indicator of weakness in the economy. Also, a decline in the business cycle is predicted by the employment and inventory components.

5. Relationship with other indexes: for example, the employment diffusion index is very similar to the manufacturing employment diffusion index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The US manufacturing business index (PMI) improved last month and rose unexpectedly to 57.7% from 56% a month earlier, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

PHOTO: EPA/DEAN LEWINS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT

The index of business activity in the US industry (ISM Manufacturing) in February 2017 unexpectedly went up and reached 57.7% compared to 56% in January, such data is provided by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM).

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the index to remain at its January level. Thus, the data cheered up the market and suggests that the market is holding business activity and the economy is gaining momentum.

The situation has also improved with consumer incomes, which increased last month by 0.4%, and spending by 0.2%. Analysts had expected the pair of income and expenses growth in monthly terms to increase by 0.3%.

At the same time, according to the research organization Marit Economics, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US worsened in February 2017 to 54.2 points compared to 55.0 points a month earlier. So the indicators turned out to be lower than the forecasts of analysts who bet on 54.4 points.

The report states that manufacturing activity in the US is on course for expansion and development at a rapid pace. Although the latest recovery was slightly weaker than seen at the beginning of 2017, this largely reflected the moderation in the growth in new orders after reaching a 28-month peak in January, along with a slightly weaker increase in production volumes. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a solid rise in inventory levels, driven by longer production schedules and expected improvement in customer demand.

As previously reported, the eurozone manufacturing PMI is at its highest in 6 years. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of 19 eurozone countries in February 2017 rose to 55.4 points compared to 55.2 points a month earlier, according to final data from research organization IHS Markit.

The figure hit a 70-month high, reflecting the biggest improvement in operating conditions in almost six years.

The preliminary score was 55.5 points.

"Companies are clearly looking forward to continued favorable conditions. Firms are more optimistic about the outlook this year than at any time since the debt crisis in the region," said Chris Williamson, senior economist at IHS Markit. "Companies are reporting stronger demand both domestically and in export markets, with a weaker euro boosting sales."

EPA/RUNGROJ YONGRIT

Greece continues to show a decline in manufacturing activity, while in other countries there is a positive trend. At the same time, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany recorded the highest growth in manufacturing PMI, Williamson said.

The indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany rose from 56.4 points in January to 56.8 points in February. The indicator reached its highest level since May 2011.

France's manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.6 to 52.2 last month. The index reached its lowest level in three months.

Meanwhile, Italy's manufacturing PMI rose from 53 to 55, the highest since December 2015.

Spain's manufacturing PMI was 54.8 in February compared to 55.6 a month earlier. Despite the decline, the indicator continues to show a significant improvement in operating conditions in the manufacturing sector in Spain.

At the same time, the indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector of Greece rose from 46.6 points in January to 47.7 points in February. PMI showed a decrease in business activity in the country's manufacturing sector for the sixth month in a row, although the pace of decline was lower than in the previous month.

The data on the Russian market was also released today, the PMI index of the manufacturing industries of Russia in February fell to 52.5 points compared to 54.7 points in January, according to IHS Marit data.

Thus, Russia's manufacturing PMI reached a 4-month low last month, but continued to indicate a significant improvement in market conditions relative to the long-term average.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

Source: IHS Markit

Production volumes and new orders continued their strong growth in February. However, the increase in the corresponding indicators was the lowest since September, reflecting the slowdown in the sector as a whole.

The growth of new orders was once again held back by the fall in export orders, which has been observed for three and a half years.

Employment growth also slowed in February. Some companies hired additional staff to increase production capacity, while others streamlined operations through job cuts.

Purchasing activity in the manufacturing industry also declined, but growth remained strong and above the long-term average. At the same time, stocks of finished products and raw materials were reduced.

Purchase prices rose again in February, but inflation was the second lowest in four years.

Despite slowing activity last month, companies expect rising demand, new long-term contracts and a rebound in economic growth to boost production over the next 12 months.

"February data continues to point to a healthy sector. Market conditions are up in the context of long-term averages. Most encouragingly, the degree of optimism was the brightest since May 2015," said Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit.

At the same time, the growth of manufacturing activity in the US slowed down in February compared to the previous month, being less than analysts' expectations. Companies are spending and investing less.

The index of business activity (ManufacturingPMI) in the US manufacturing sector in February fell to 54.3 points from 55.0 points a month earlier, according to data from Markit Economics, which calculate this indicator. Analysts polled had expected a slight decline to 54.7 points.

The index of business activity (ServicesBusinessActivityIndex) in the US services sector went down from 55.6 points in January to 53.9 points in February. Although analysts had forecast a rise to 55.8 points, preliminary data from IHS Markit show.

Thus, the slowdown in the services sector in February suggests that there is a significant decline in new orders, and this was the worst indicator in the last five months. The Services PMI in February is also at its lowest level since September 2016.

“In February, we saw a sharp bounce back in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector. This suggests that companies have become more cautious in their spending and investments. In general, the indices remain at the level and correspond to an economic growth of 2.5 % year-on-year in the first quarter," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

As previously reported, the PMI of the US services sector rose in September to 51.9 points. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US services sector rose to 51.9 points in September 2016 from 51 points in August, according to preliminary data from IHS Markit.

An indicator below 50 points reflects a decrease in activity, above - an increase in activity.

The growth of business activity in the services sector in September was the highest since April.

At the same time, the US services sector registered a decline in business confidence.

"The services sector gave mixed signals in September, with faster growth in activity during the month offset by gloomy leading indicators. Although business activity posted the strongest gain since April, new business inflows slowed and employment growth was the weakest in three and a half years. Decline in optimism for over the coming year to near post-crisis lows cloud the outlook," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit.

“Moreover, even despite the recent surge in activity, overall economic growth remains weak. If you add these results in the services sector to the data on industrial production, business activity indexes indicate that the economy is growing at an annualized rate of only about 1% in III quarter," the expert said.

Definition of the term index of business activity

What are they talking about business activity indices

PMI business activity index

Faktura.ru business activity index

However, the main disadvantage of building stock indices based on a continuous sample is the problem of liquidity. The fact is that the last contract price is usually used to calculate the index. However, for some shares agreements may not be carried out for a long time, and the stock exchange index in such cases begins to “lag behind life”. If there are many such stocks, then the index becomes inertial and poorly meets the needs of investors.

The third problem of building an exchange index is related to the fact that the situation on the market is constantly changing - bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions occur, new organizations arise that rapidly increase capitalization. On the other hand, the longer the history of the index, the greater its value - it is possible to trace the reaction of the stock market in the past to certain events in different macroeconomic conditions, which gives good grounds for predicting further market movements. For this reason, a dilemma arises: if changes are made rarely, then the index begins to "lag behind the market", if often, the index "loses history", i.e., retaining its former name, it actually begins to reflect changes in another market sector. Therefore, from time to time, stock markets change the composition of the index - they withdraw some indices and introduce others to replace them. There are no formal criteria for changing the composition of the sample and taking into account ongoing changes in the market; in practice, these issues are resolved by the index calculation, with the involvement of authoritative experts.

Integral (composite) indices

Despite the relative simplicity and convenience of calculating stock indices, they do not always reflect the economic cycle and, accordingly, the current state and dynamics of business activity. This disadvantage is especially pronounced in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, where there are no pronounced economic cycles, there are no stock exchanges, or they are just beginning to develop. In addition, the stock index reflects past events. But investors are primarily interested in what may happen in the near future.

Given these limitations, the so-called integrated business activity indices are increasingly used in international practice. When developing such an index, an attempt is made to combine several indicators into one, which, due to its generality, would predict economic cycles most clearly. Therefore, the index is designed in such a way as to cover all the main components of business activity in the country: employment, production, income, consumption, trade, investments, stocks, prices, money and loan and etc.

The components of the index are selected based on their economic significance, statistical adequacy and the possibility of operational measurement and accumulate both quantitative and qualitative information in various industries and areas. Such indices have the properties of a leading (predictive) indicator and are able to indicate the moment of a change in the trend in economic activity. This is because the polls systematize the opinions of a large number of people who are professionally engaged in "their" business in different industries, who know and feel the development trends.

The best-known index of this group is the IFO index of the institute in Germany, according to which the level of business activity is assessed on a monthly basis, as well as expectations for the next six months. It is formed by polling more than 7 thousand managers. When calculating the index to assess business activity, companies use the following formulations: good; satisfactory; bad. And to express their business expectations: more favorable; unchanged; more unfavorable.

To calculate the index IFO four sectors are considered, which, through numerous surveys, have been recognized as sectors that form the “face” of business activity in Germany. These include: production of goods, construction, and retail(Fig. 2). Based on them, graphs are drawn up showing an assessment of business activity and an assessment of business expectations.

After that, a business activity trend vector and a vector of expectations are formed in general for four industries. The vector of development of the business environment is “added” to them, and as a result, three vectors are obtained that allow for a comprehensive assessment of the state and development of business activity in the country as a result of measures taken to create a favorable business environment2.

In such indices, the most important question is how to interpret their graphic meaning? After all, the index charts themselves IFO have no effect on the market. They only reflect the psychological, if you like, upward or downward trend that is currently taking over the market.

In general, the chart patterns that have been identified and classified over the past hundred years reflect important features of the PSYCHOLOGICAL state of the market. First of all, they indicate which mood - bullish or bearish3 - dominates the market at the moment. And if these models worked in the past, there is every reason to believe that they will work in the future, because they are based on human psychology, which does not change over the years. We can formulate the main signal of the index: the key to understanding the future lies in the study of the past. Or it can be quite different: the future is just a repetition of the past.

The semantic interpretation of the IFO index is carried out in points: the higher its value, the more favorable the forecasts of the economic condition. The value of the index can vary from 80 to 120; the level of business activity in 2000 is taken as 100. Changes in the index are tracked in dynamics (on a monthly basis) and are given as a percentage. Figures below 100 are an indicator of a slowdown in the rate of economic development compared to the base period (in our case, 2000) and are unambiguously considered by the market as a negative factor. A value above 100 shows growing optimism among entrepreneurs, which in turn causes the euro (EUR) to strengthen; SWISS FRANK().

The main purpose of the chart is to help you recognize a trend and follow it throughout its lifespan.

In this case, the correct assessment of the possible time for a trend reversal is important. To do this, any important signal to increase or decrease the rate in the market must pass through the values ​​of all indices. In other words, we can speak about the beginning of an upward trend only if the values ​​of all indices have covered their previous intermediate peaks. If this happens with only one index, then it is too early to talk about an uptrend in the market. The signals do not have to, of course, absolutely coincide with each other, but the less they are separated in time, the more reliable. If there is a discrepancy in the dynamics of the indices, it means that the previous trend is still in effect, the nature of the market has not changed. In particular, the graph of the IFO index clearly shows the moment when all three graphs (business activity, business expectations and business environment) rushed down sharply from the second half of 2008, indicating a sharp change in the trend in the negative direction and thus symbolizing the beginning of the crisis .

Another tool for "measuring" business activity is the ratings compiled by large consulting and international rating agencies based on surveys and studying the opinions of leaders of large companies around the world. Such indices do not reflect daily, weekly or monthly changes in business activity and have a number of significant differences from stock and integral indices:

The rating sets the classification criterion according to which a phenomenon is ranked, while the index itself is a criterion for assessing the development of this phenomenon in dynamics (i.e., a relative value);

Ratings have, as a rule, a universal methodology, which is based on the calculation of indicators with an unambiguous interpretation. Therefore, this methodology can be used for different countries. At the same time, all known business activity indices "inevitably" have elements of originality in their methodology, because they reflect the features of development and components of the business environment in each particular country.

These differences reduce the attractiveness of the ratings from the point of view of an operational tool for assessing business activity. However, their value lies in the fact that they provide a comprehensive picture of the development world economy and business around the world as a whole and on specific continents, regions, countries.

It is extremely important for governments and businesses to “see the future” and act on the challenges and opportunities that exist today and may arise tomorrow. According to the responses of managers of large companies to the questions of the annual PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) survey, 72% of respondents believe that the problem of scarcity of natural resources will only worsen over time. However, only 26% believe that increasing the efficiency of technology can solve this problem. This suggests that competition per Natural resources(primarily energy) will grow in the long term and lead to a tough struggle for access to them and, accordingly, an increase in the profitability of resource sectors.

The results of such surveys make it possible to determine the prospects for the growth of markets and individual companies, the emergence of new types of products and new customers. To maximize return on investment in the long term, determine the general directions for the development of the company, management needs to have an idea of ​​the risks and opportunities in various regions of the world, track the development of other companies both in terms of competition and cooperation opportunities in international markets. To gain access to such a “global vision” is especially important for big business operating at the transnational level (and for those who only plan to enter it), carrying out strategic investments calculated for the medium and long term.

At each stage of development, it is important for a business to understand what exactly is needed for “growth above oneself”. What are the limitations of development and what is important to change in order to achieve the goal. The answers to this question are not always simple and unambiguous.

Let's just give some examples. A rating based on a study by the McKinsey Global Institute showed that a third of the gap in the level labor efficiency in the Russian Federation compared to the United States is due to outdated production facilities. It would seem that a fairly simple conclusion suggests itself - it is necessary to modernize the existing capacities and thereby increase their productivity by 30%.

However, as the study shows, another important reason for the backlog is inefficient labor. It takes 3 times more people to produce a ton of rolled steel in the Russian Federation than in the US. Thus, even with investments in the modernization of the industry, success will largely depend on the skillfully carried out optimization of business processes, reducing the number of personnel and redistributing the workforce.

At the same time, comparison with leaders (in certain markets, in certain industries), often called benchmarking today, provides important indicators - both for the business itself and for the state. Continuing the example of productivity in the steel industry in the Russian Federation, the following comparison made by McKinsey experts can be made: . workers by 2020”. Obviously, the government and business need to solve this problem together, developing adequate options in order to ensure, if possible, a painless flow of surplus labor to other sectors of the economy.

Attempts to “measure” business activity in Uzbekistan

In 1996-2003 The Center for Effective Economic Policy (CEEP, now the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis under the Ministry of Economy), together with the State Committee on Statistics, conducted market research on the business activity of industrial enterprises.

When conducting research, it was used, developed and used by member countries of the company for economic cooperation and development (OECD). It is based on a survey and generalization of the opinions of respondents (heads of enterprises) on the main areas of activity of enterprises in comparison with the previous quarter and a forecast of the situation for the next quarter.

When processing questionnaires received from respondents on questions of a qualitative nature, the relative frequency of each answer option was calculated in percent. Next, the difference in the relative frequencies of positive and negative answers to questions, which is an index of changes, was calculated.

1. Traditional, contained in similar foreign questionnaires. This was supposed to achieve comparability of the results of market research in the cross-country context;

2. Related to the peculiarities of the development of the economy of Uzbekistan.

Generalization of the results of the study of business activity of industrial enterprises was carried out in the sectoral context for ten major industries: non-ferrous, chemistry and petrochemistry, mechanical engineering, metalworking, printing, construction industry, light industry, food, flour milling, forestry, woodworking and pulp and paper.

The assessment of economic changes at industrial enterprises was carried out in the following main areas:

Assessment of the economic situation;

Use of production capacities;

Benefits and privileges for foreign investors.

Production infrastructure;

non-production infrastructure.

The final list of indicators that shape the business environment can be formulated after joint consultations with a wide range of stakeholders, both among entrepreneurs and the expert community. Here, the support of such organizations as the Commercial and Industrial Private Banks annually conducts surveys to assess the business environment in Uzbekistan and therefore has the most complete “set” of expert assessments of the quality and constituent components of the business environment in Uzbekistan today.

The effectiveness of the impact of the business environment on business activity should be reflected in the dynamics of certain indicators (indicators of business activity). What should be the list of these indicators? While it is difficult to give a definitive list, it seems that the results of the change in the business environment in the industrial sector should be reflected in the dynamics of the following indicators:

The volume of the index of industrial production;

employment;

Investments;

export;

Modernization.

It should be noted that some of the above indicators may be interdependent with each other (for example, investments and). In addition, not all of them may be a reflection of business environment factors. Therefore, additional analysis is required 1) the relationship of these indicators to each other and 2) the relationship of each of the indicators with each of the factors of the business environment. Such an analysis requires numerous calculations and the establishment of the so-called “tightness” of the connection, which in the expert community is commonly called the “correlation coefficient matrix”. And the regression coefficients between the various components of the business environment and the resulting indicators will allow you to determine the weights of each of the business environment factors. This will make it possible to “deduce” the integral index of business activity in industry. In addition, the obtained coefficients correlations will allow predicting changes in business activity in the industrial sector in the short term.

After “working out” the construction of an index of business activity in industry, one can multiply this experience in constructing similar indices in other industries and in general throughout the economy.

The dynamics of the listed indicators is supposed to be analyzed in quantitative (Goskomstat data) and qualitative dimensions (surveys). Both quantitative and qualitative data will be generated from the same sample, which should reflect the characteristics of the general population. Based on IFC's business environment survey, this sample should include at least 500 representatives. However, the question of determining the sample is still open and requires additional consultations with the expert community.

Since a significant part of the calculations will be based on the data of the State Statistics Committee, which are formed mainly on a quarterly basis, it is advisable to calculate the business activity index on a quarterly basis as well.

Only an open dialogue and feedback with all stakeholders will help shape the final vision of the business activity index, which reflects the current state and development trends of business in Uzbekistan.

Notes:

1 The very first average price of the Dow Jones index (July 3, 1884) included only 11 stocks of different companies, 9 of which were railroad. In this form, the index successfully existed until 1897, and then it was divided into two components: an index of 12 industrial companies and an index of 20 railway companies. In 1928, the index of industrial companies included not 12, but 30 shares, and in 1929 there was also an index of public utilities.

2 The indexes of this group include the business activity index of the Association of Managers and Kommersant Publishing House in the Russian Federation, the Japanese Tankan business activity index, etc.

3, these terms are used primarily to characterize the general direction of price changes in the stock market (i.e., a trend) and mean the following: “Bullish” is rising, and “bearish” is falling.

4 According to the IFC, since 1991, more than 16,000 acts aimed at creating a favorable business climate have been adopted in Uzbekistan.

US Stock Indices Britain and the Russian Federation

IFO business activity index ().

IFO Industry and Business Survey, May 2009. (index, 2000=100 seasonally adjusted)

Sources

glossary.ru - glossary.ru

academic.ru - dictionaries and encyclopedias on Academician

fxeuroclub.ru - Forex currency market Euro club

business.compulenta.ru - Compulenta is an online publication dedicated to the news of the computer industry, science and technology.

subcontract.ru - information support portal for small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses

review.uz - magazine "Economic Review"

Encyclopedia of the investor. 2013 .

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Chicago Managers Association PMI- monthly index based on the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the field of industry from Chicago and surrounding regions. The index characterizes the state of production orders, prices for manufactured products and stocks in warehouses. By… … Financial vocabulary

Business Activity Index of the National Association of Service Managers- in the US, a monthly report on the results of a survey of managers in the service sector. The survey is organized to assess the changes taking place in the service sector. In English: National Association of Purchasing Managers services index English synonyms: NAPM… … Financial vocabulary

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PMI (Project Management Institute) - this is business activity in the industrial sector - It represents the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industrial sector. This index is used to estimate changes in new production orders, industrial production index volume, employment, as well as inventories and the speed of suppliers. Figures below "45-50" are an indicator of a slowdown in economic development. Often the amount of this index psychological factors have a greater influence than the actual state of affairs. Since the volume industrial production index is not automatically a source of consumer demand, then this indicator approach with caution. Has limited effect on . An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the exchange rate. The Eurozone summary is published on the first business day of each month at 09:00 GMT (GMT).

PMI (Project Management Institute) (services) - in the services sector - It represents the results of a survey managers in the service sector in order to assess the changes taking place in this industry. The numbers below "45-50" are indicator slowdown in economic development. Often, the value of this index is more influenced by psychological factors than by the actual state of affairs. consumption of services tends to change at a relatively constant rate, so it is psychological factors that influence sharp changes in the value of this indicator. Therefore, when analyzing the index, special attention is paid to this. Has a limited impact on the market. The growth of the value of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the euro. Composite index for Eurozone published on the first days of each month at 09:00 GMT one day after the publication of the index in the field industry.

The PMI (Project Management Institute) index is

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PMI manufacturing index - PMI (Project Management Institute) manufacturing. shows the level of business activity in the industrial sector. If, after a period of strengthening, the PMI (Project Management Institute) begins to show a decrease, then this anticipates a downward reversal of the business cycle and the curtailment of industrial activity. If the PMI (Project Management Institute), having reached a minimum, turns up, then this is a sign of a future economic recovery.

PMI (Project Management Institute) is an index of industrial enterprises in the Chicago region. Represents the results of a survey managers for procurement in the field industry from Chicago. This index affects the state of production orders, prices for manufactured products and inventory in warehouses. Figures below 50 are an indicator of a slowdown in the economy, and vice versa - it signals an increase in economic activity in the region if its value exceeds 50. It is closely monitored, as it is published shortly before the release of the National Managers Association Business Activity Index (ISI, formerly NAPM). This index has a fairly high impact on the market, as it can give an idea of ​​how business activity will turn out at the national level (ISI, formerly NAPM). An increase in the index value leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

PMI (Project Management Institute) manufacturing - Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector - a monthly report on the results of a survey of managers in the manufacturing sector, organized to assess the changes taking place in this area. Published monthly. The report is taken into account by the market. The growth of the index has a positive effect on the exchange rate of the national currency

Index of the National Association of Managers - in the US - a monthly report on the results of a survey of purchasing managers in the industry, characterizing the impact of the economy on the formation of price space. The report is used to evaluate changes in the area of ​​new production orders, volume industrial production index, employment, and inventory and speed work suppliers. The index is a fairly reliable indicator for predicting turning points in the business cycle.

Sources

Wikipedia - the free encyclopedia

WikiKnowledge - the free encyclopedia

Great Soviet Encyclopedia

Dictionaries and encyclopedias on academician

Encyclopedia of the investor. 2013 .

• Nikkei Index

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PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) business activity index in the manufacturing sector is calculated based on data provided by purchasing managers for production volume items, new orders, inventory levels and employment. PMI is one of the key indicators of the state of the economy of the country issuing the indicator.

PMI calculation

The PMI index consists of five important components, each of which has its own fixed percentage in the total value of 100%:

• the number of new orders in the production segment (new orders), which are assigned 30%;
• the employment rate is 20%;
• production volumes (production) 25%;
• inventory indicator (inventories) 10%;
• activity of suppliers (supplier deliveries) 15%.

In order to determine the values ​​of these individual factors, which add up to the total percentage value for a given period, all managers are asked a series of simple questions. At the same time, the answers do not imply a detailed nature, but must correspond to the option used in the tests, that is, “yes”, “has not changed” and “no”.

The questions themselves are designed in such a way that the structure of the answers allows you to make an objective logical conclusion regarding the current indicator, which will be demonstrated by the PMI index.

To compile an index of manufacturing activity PMI, managers - survey participants - will be asked their opinion on:

• intensity of production volumes (Production);
• the number of new orders for export (New export orders);
• commodity value (Commodity prices);
• employment level (Employment);
• deliveries (Vendor deliveries);
• import volumes (New import orders);
• the number of orders received from customers (New orders);
• volumes of goods for short-term deliveries (Items in short surply);
• status of the portfolio of unfilled orders (Order backlogs).

How does the publication of the manufacturing PMI index affect the exchange rate?

Excess value 50 indicates the growth of the manufacturing sector and is a positive factor for the national currency. A drop in the PMI below 50 is indicative of a slowdown.

PMI index in the manufacturing sector, it belongs to survey or diffusion indices and allows you to track the dynamics of the economic cycle, being a leading indicator. The observed close correlation of the manufacturing PMI index with economic dynamics makes it possible to predict future values ​​of growth rates.

It should be noted that the PMI index of business activity should be interpreted not based on its momentary values. The specificity of its influence lies in the accuracy of determining economic cycles in the long term. So, for example, if a value exceeds the 50% level, it can be expected that the largest increase in business cycles will be recorded after seven months.

It should also be taken into account that a decrease in the value to 35% is a sure economic stagnation, which indicates serious problems in the country's economy, which, of course, will find its direct reflection on the national currency rate. At the same time, if the index stays above the 44% mark, then the reaction of investors will be ambiguous, since such values ​​usually indicate the possibility of a quick recovery, which means that such data does not give serious reasons for concern.

When are manufacturing PMIs released?

Eurozone countries and the UK

• Publication date: twice a month (provisional and final indexes)
• Source: Markit Economics
• Website: www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
• Website: www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport

China

• Publication date: monthly
• Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
• Website: www.hsbc.com

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