Nikita Krichevsky - Russia. Through sanctions - to prosperity! Nikita Krichevsky: an economist worth listening to! Nikita Krichevsky articles

, Moscow) - modern Russian economist and publicist, specialist in the field of public economic management, finance, risk management and social security, radio host.

Biography

Divorced; father of two children.

Main works

• Shabalin E. M., Krichevsky N. A., Karp M. V. How to avoid bankruptcy. - M.: Infra-M, 1996. - 140 p.
• Krichevsky N. A. Investment insurance. Tutorial. - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2005. - 256 p.
• Krichevsky N. A., Kuksin A. G. State regulation of social insurance. - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2006. - 137 p.
• Krichevsky N. A., Kalinin M. I. Mortgage housing lending. - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2006. - 227 p.
• Krichevsky N. A., Goncharov S. F. Corporate social responsibility - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2007. - 215 p.
• Krichevsky N. A., Soloviev A. K., Markushina I. Yu. et al. Social insurance. Textbook. - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2007. - 313 p.
• Krichevsky N. A., Kiryushkin R. A. Raiding risk: essence, assessment, management. - M.: Marketing, 2007. - 43 p.

Oksana Galkevich: Well now...

Konstantin Churikov: Well, now in this studio with us is Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences Nikita Krichevsky, and this will be his “Personal Opinion”. If you are interested in the personal opinion of Professor Nikita Krichevsky, call 8-800-222-00-14. Good evening, Nikita Alexandrovich.

Oksana Galkevich: Good evening, Nikita Alexandrovich.

Nikita Krichevsky: Hello.

Konstantin Churikov: We haven’t even had time to say hello yet, and at 18:59 we already received an SMS, a question from our viewer from Stavropol: they ask us to ask you about how business and economists feel about Vladimir Putin’s decision to run in the presidential elections.

Nikita Krichevsky: I don’t know how business feels about Vladimir Putin’s decision to run for president. I think that business is extremely positive, if not to say that business is absolutely happy with the choice of Vladimir Vladimirovich and the fact that he will go.

As for economists, this question perplexes me for the simple reason that I do not quite understand who we are talking about. What is an economist? Is an economist a profession, is an economist a type of scientific activity? This is not entirely clear to me. An economist is a scientist who deals with a specific scientific issue. Let's say an institutional economist designs, studies, and tries to correct institutions. A monetary economist is close to the Central Bank, to the Ministry of Finance. For example, I deal with issues of mentality and national economic character in relation to the Russian economy.

Konstantin Churikov: Especially.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes. Therefore, asking as a humanist, as a person who studies social sciences, is one conversation; asking as a person who understands something about economics is different. But it’s absolutely obvious, in my personal opinion, just as a person, it doesn’t matter here whether you’re an economist or not...

Konstantin Churikov: So we just wanted to hear the opinion of an economist who sees reality.

Nikita Krichevsky: There is no choice. There is no choice, there is no alternative. If there was some alternative candidate who could offer some kind of program, I don’t know, who most importantly could and has proven himself in previous work, this would be some kind of choice, some kind of alternative, some kind of then a fork. But today, when we have Vladimir Putin, who has been leading the country for 18 years, whose authority is undeniable among the population, what choice can there be?

Oksana Galkevich: Nikita Aleksandrovich, there is no choice, but there are other candidates.

Nikita Krichevsky: No.

Oksana Galkevich: And including from business - by the way, Mr. Titov declared himself a representative of such a business community.

Nikita Krichevsky: Mr. Titov is not going to become president, he immediately said this, and his party immediately said that they need these elections in order to promote their growth strategy program, no more, no less.

Oksana Galkevich: This is some kind of PR campaign.

Nikita Krichevsky: They have a website where there is this program, they talk about it from all angles, and again they come to you and say: “Here is our growth strategy.” What is a growth strategy? What are people talking about there? It doesn't matter in this case. Why else would they go to the polls? So that the discussion is nationwide? But economic programs are not publicly discussed. Any reforms cannot be adopted by a simple or constitutional majority.

Konstantin Churikov: We will return to Boris Titov later, there will be a separate question. Let's put it this way...

Nikita Krichevsky: Oh, yes, that separate question, Konstantin is, of course, such a punch in the gut to the presidential candidate that I, of course, apologize very much.

Konstantin Churikov: No, just a second, after all, the front line of work, let’s say, is the task of the future president of Russia - let’s formulate it this way.

Nikita Krichevsky: Look here. In 2000, when Vladimir Putin was elected for his first term, the main thing for us, for the residents of that country, was the preservation of social stability, or rather the establishment of social stability and the preservation of the territorial integrity of the country, because the country was bursting at the seams. Putin coped with this task, I think, brilliantly, brilliantly. Then there were eras of stabilization, increasing the well-being of the population, and this was all done, it was all great.

Today is a slightly different task, today is the task of qualitative development of the country, today is the task of the beginning, precisely the beginning of the movement towards justice - public, social, distributive justice, call it whatever you want. This is, of course, a new challenge. I am now speaking as a representative of the government, who, so to speak, has a deputy who comes to you, who has children abroad, accounts in offshore companies, but if you step aside and speak in truly sane language, then this is truly a challenge for a person. And I, for example, have only one hope for him.

Because who else can we rely on? To this comprador elite, to these collaborators? Well, what is the comprador elite? Compradorism is when you act in the interests of foreign capital, and collaborationism is cooperation with the enemy. So our elite today is not only comprador, which took all the money out of the country, but also collaborationist, since they very often say that a war is being waged against Russia. Moreover, I will tell you: we are dealing not so much with a comprador collaborationist elite, but with an undeclared informal occupation of the Russian Federation. We have never had a real occupation and never will, we are not the same country, we are not the same people.

But these, excuse me, bastards who for centuries came to our territory, occupied command positions (no matter in the state, in the church, anywhere) and sucked, milked everything they wanted from the country, instilling their ideology they needed - here this is happening today. Only once these were Catholics, then it was Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, today this is the so-called “offshore aristocracy”, today these are Western henchmen who tell us that our conquests are a flat tax scale and we We won’t give it to anyone, or we don’t need currency control, that’s not why we fought and took power in the early 1990s, but at the same time they mysteriously burn up sums of, say, 30 million dollars in some banks.

Oksana Galkevich: Contrary to the laws of physics, where nothing disappears anywhere.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes. They were all white and fluffy, and suddenly 30 million dollars, absolutely everyone knows about it. And then they go on TV and tell us about how they did everything to ensure that our Olympians did not suffer. But, unfortunately, they didn’t succeed.

Konstantin Churikov: A flood of messages from viewers. Let me remind you that you can do it by phone very simply and free of charge, by the way: 8-800-222-00-14.

Nikita Aleksandrovich, our viewers are free to ask the questions that they consider necessary to ask, you are free to answer or not answer these questions.

Nikita Krichevsky: But at the same time there are moderators Konstantin and Oksana. So our viewers should take this into account.

Konstantin Churikov: Yes. Fresh question from the Tver Regional: “If Putin wins, I wonder who we will see in the government?” Will there be a new team?

Nikita Krichevsky: Gentlemen, don’t get carried away by this issue, who will be there in the government, what his name will be - Pupkin, someone else - it doesn’t matter. It is important what ideology the new government will have. If this is a continuation of what we have observed over the past 18 years, then good luck, then a few more years and we will have a new social catastrophe, this is obvious. This is obvious, because when we are told that we must all get together, tighten our belts and refuse to communicate with the West, while leaving children, families and assets abroad, this is not even hypocrisy, this is, excuse me, betrayal. But they talk about it all the time in your studio too. And take the federal channels - well, those that are the first button and others.

Konstantin Churikov: Large federal channels.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes. So there are just all sorts of bears, excuse me, they come, Gummi bears, stand up or sit down and tell us how we should unite and how good everything is. And at the same time, I say that they have a car with a personal driver there, they booked tickets somewhere to Europe for the weekend to do some shopping, and in general everything is fine with them. Yesterday an acquaintance literally called and said: “You have no idea how much tickets to Nice for the New Year holidays cost.”

Konstantin Churikov: How much?

Nikita Krichevsky: Economy class 90 thousand rubles. This is very expensive, the usual price is, say, 25-30 thousand, let’s say.

Konstantin Churikov: Well, that’s where wealthy people fly, as we know from reports.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, and here it’s 90 thousand. And he says, "Listen, what's going on?" It’s clear that this is a flood of requests, and therefore the price automatically rises. The shaft just goes. And then these people come on television and start telling us that you are sitting there in the Bryansk region, everything will be fine with you. Well, yes, 20 thousand, but we are working in this direction, everything will be great. I'm tired of this already, to be honest. And this is precisely the agenda today for the new future president, who, I hope, will again be called Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

Oksana Galkevich: Nikita Aleksandrovich, Kostya persistently returns you to candidate No. 1, to Vladimir Putin.

Konstantin Churikov: Yes, that's absolutely right.

Oksana Galkevich: But I would still like to discuss with you the proposals of another candidate.

Nikita Krichevsky: I wouldn't abuse numbers.

Oksana Galkevich: Well, not numbers, this candidate, okay.

Nikita Krichevsky: Just to Vladimir Putin and that’s it. Because everyone else is not a candidate. This is a circus, this is a show.

Oksana Galkevich: Fine. But if you still look at the line and at the proposals that are heard from the other side, call it whatever you want. After what you said about this elite, about the ideology they bring to our country, perhaps Titov’s proposal to return these people from abroad along with their capital is not a good idea?

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, what a great idea, I think. Excellent. True, depending on who. For those Gavriks who stole here, violated and ran away, hiding from the Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor General’s Office, this is a great idea. For you and me, this idea, let’s say, smells bad.

Konstantin Churikov: Why?

Nikita Krichevsky: Well, because you broke the law, you are ready to pay off now. They say: “We will contribute there, we will compensate for what was accrued to us.” True, no one says that they stole significantly more than they accrued as a result.

Konstantin Churikov: Wait a second, but they have assets, they are ready for them...

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes. But there is no issue from London. They stated that they were ready to compensate how much they owe...

Konstantin Churikov: How many came running in the criminal case.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, how many did we get? A million is not a question; Petrovich still has 9 left in his stash. But, guys, let’s do this: there is a country called Russia, there are people, dozens of them, and to be precise, about 150 million, and there are people who consider the country their homeland and are not ready to sacrifice the interests of this state under any circumstances , this country, your nation. And there are traitors, that is, there are people who stole from the Bryansk and Pskov regions, from the same Dagestan and ran away. They were caught by the tail and managed to jump out. And today they call on Titov and say: “Yurich, you put me on Putin’s list, well, because...” And let’s switch it to wartime. Well, that is, you know that someone ran away, that someone betrayed your company, your guard, your platoon, battalion, whatever, and then comes and says: “Well, I’ll redeem it.”

Oksana Galkevich: "I realized."

Nikita Krichevsky: “I realized. Well, yes, I violated there, but now everything will be fine with me. I miss the birch trees, there’s a lot of movement in Moscow, and we need to decide with the land in the Ryazan region, again...”

Konstantin Churikov: Sorry, it’s either movement or birch trees, we need to sort this out.

Nikita Krichevsky: No, they keep the movement in their heads, but that’s how birches are for everyone, yes.

Oksana Galkevich: Don't we all fit the same brush? Maybe there are still exceptions?

Nikita Krichevsky: Explain to me why you and I, the three of us, Kostya, Oksana - why for all these years you and I, well, not to say that we were completely beggars, but we lived poorly, paid taxes, contributions...

Konstantin Churikov: We are still paying.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, and everything was fine with us, at least we slept peacefully. And at the same time, there are people who clearly violated the law: they did not pay taxes, they withdrew capital, they bled our economy dry. And today the three of us sit and say: “Well, yes, they are, of course, traitors, but maybe we shouldn’t put everyone under the same brush.” I also have a question, how much money did they bring you for you to ask this question?

Oksana Galkevich: To me?

Konstantin Churikov: Oksana? No, it’s empty, there’s nothing under the table, there’s nothing.

Oksana Galkevich: Well, you know, Nikita Aleksandrovich, they didn’t bring me anything, I have a mortgage on my apartment - just like you, by the way.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes.

Konstantin Churikov: With us, yes.

Nikita Krichevsky: Here's to the question, to the question. Why can’t we buy ourselves an apartment with our salary, let’s say, or save some money there? Why are we forced to take out a bank loan to purchase housing? Well, because if these comrades paid taxes, we would have better funding, including your channel, not to mention science. Everything would be much more interesting. But they ran away, they bought themselves apartments there, and today they say: “Titov, put in a good word for us, well, we’ll pay you off there, then everything will be fine. And we can offer you an option - tell Vladimir Vladimirovich for new government bonds made foreign currency, only foreign currency, Bor, we don’t need rubles, because your ruble is a tree, it goes up and down, it’s not interesting. Give it in currency, just tell me, and then we’ll come and buy these bonds, everything will be fine" .

The Ministry of Finance is there, it’s liberal in our opinion, but it says: “Stop.” That is, from such impudence he was initially speechless. Only then did Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev show up - he says: “Actually, everything is fine with financial instruments, we don’t see the need to issue new ones.” Imagine, that is, this public, these insolent people, these boors, what are they, traitors - they also tell us: “Give us government bonds, and then we will come to you.” And if there are no government bonds, will the birches be canceled and the movement in Moscow too?

Oksana Galkevich: Love is gone.

Nikita Krichevsky: Love is gone? - Well, sit in your London, they’ll get it. Go to the grave of Boris Abramovich Berezovsky, put a flower and look at its unkempt appearance - this is what awaits you.

Oksana Galkevich: Think about the eternal.

Konstantin Churikov: Our phone doesn't stop ringing. Anatoly, Belgorod city, good evening. You are on air.

Viewer:Good evening, Belgorod city. You know, these are the questions. Are the President and Prime Minister aware of the current situation with wages and unemployment? Second question: at one time, Vladimir Vladimirovich promised that 25 million jobs would be created - is anything being done or will be done in this direction? And one last question quickly. The Federal Antimonopoly Service managed to maintain tariffs on railway transport, but why can’t it do the same with utility bills? Already 100% for several years.

Nikita Krichevsky: Well done. That's it, thank you, thank you very much.

Konstantin Churikov: Thank you, Anatoly.

Nikita Krichevsky: Regarding the 25 million jobs (sorry, Anatoly, about the second question) - this is a Tito trick. Titov suggested this. Moreover, this idea was in the depths of “Business Russia”, just a beautiful figure of 25 million. And they say... Then someone liked it, and it was transferred to the May decrees, although we have 33 million jobs in the Russian economy (not to be confused with the economically active population). 25 million jobs with 33 jobs available. I understand when Americans say: “We will create 25 million jobs,” but they have 150. And when you have 33 and you are going to create more...

Konstantin Churikov: Double it actually.

Nikita Krichevsky: Out of the blue. And then Rosstat begins to invent, invent - but what about this, this is a presidential decree? And they say: “Whoever has a salary above the regional average means that he has a high-tech workplace.” Do you really think we are idiots, or do you already have problems with the cuckoo yourself? No, actually. Do you think I'm making things up? - no, it’s all like this: if the earnings are above average, it means it’s high-tech, which means we’re following the decree.

Konstantin Churikov: So, it turns out that our most highly productive jobs are located on Okhotny Ryad, somewhere there, probably now?

Nikita Krichevsky: No, in Chukotka.

Konstantin Churikov: In Chukotka.

Nikita Krichevsky: They have the highest salaries in Russia.

Konstantin Churikov: Yes, we discussed today - Yamal, Chukotka, Moscow are in third place.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes.

Regarding whether Putin and Medvedev know or don’t know, this is not a question for me, excuse me. I'm sure they do. As for the FAS and the tariffs of natural monopolies, this is exactly what we are talking about: either we are moving towards social justice, or we are heading towards social catastrophe. Because the Russian people are a patient people, but they may one day get tired of enduring. This is how Rosneft is today, for example: it endured and endured tricks from the system, then it got fed up, they filed a lawsuit, and then everyone started screaming: “How can this be? What is this? They’re strangling, you know, entrepreneurs.” Everyone has already forgotten that the system actually stole Bashneft; no one considers it. The fact that the court recognized that the asset was illegal and the dividends, therefore, also illegal - no one says anything about this either. The fact that for Russian people the subsoil belongs to everyone is an immutable postulate - no one says anything about this either.

Konstantin Churikov: But you beautifully, well compared Rosneft with the people.

Nikita Krichevsky: Apparently... And Rosneft is a state-owned company.

Oksana Galkevich: And the request for justice was summed up under this.

Nikita Krichevsky: Rosneft is a state-owned company, because it doesn’t matter who the head of the state-owned company is today. Managers come and go, but the state status of the company remains and depends on the leader, on management, on intelligence, on technostructures, as he once said Galbraith how successful this company will be. As an example - Aeroflot. When Vitaly Savelyev’s team arrived in 2008, everything was bankrupt, not today or tomorrow, but now the best company in Eastern Europe, mind you, is state-owned. The same story, for example, with Rosneft. Why am I talking about Rosneft? - but because, of course, we can now talk for a long time about all sorts of nuances, but who ensured the stability of the exchange rate at the end of the year last year? Who brought 1 trillion 300 billion rubles to the budget to close all the holes? - "Rosneft". But they say: “But Sechin gets a lot of money.” And not only Sechin, Miller and everyone else.

Konstantin Churikov: So. So how do you feel about this?

Nikita Krichevsky: I have a question. This salary correlates, that is, it is comparable, comparable with salaries in other oil companies in the world, of course? Foreigners work there, not only Mr. Sechin. But I have a question for our viewers right away: gentlemen, have you ever wondered how much Mr. Sechin, Miller, Savelyev and others pay in taxes on their income? 13% – I congratulate you. Now, if they paid 70% of their income, I would be the first to say: “Yes, even if they receive at least 100 million a day, they will give 70-80 million of this money to the treasury, to the regional treasury.” But we have a flat tax scale, this is a liberal achievement, we cannot give it up. It’s the same 150 years ago as it is today: 200 people occupied the country and are preventing it from moving. I wrote about this in the 1870-1880s. businessman, entrepreneur Vasily Kokarev in the book "Economic Failure". 200 people and we can't do anything. That was then, and, unfortunately, it is now. These are the tasks before the president, otherwise “investments need to be increased.”

As long as there is no trust in the state, as long as the state remains a hypocrite and lies to its population, nothing will change for us. We have already reached the point that in Moscow and St. Petersburg, 25% of those who work today work as freelancers and do not report to the tax office. They just don't see them. And for the country as a whole it is 18%. Question: how can you build economic strategies without seeing how 18% of the employed population lives? Here's my question for you. For me the answer is obvious: no way.

Konstantin Churikov: Well, it’s clear: sit in a dark studio and talk to you. With whom if we don't see you?

Oksana Galkevich: Without knowing with whom, yes.

Konstantin Churikov: It's clear.

Oksana Galkevich: For whom, to whom are you asking questions?

Nikita Krichevsky: But for us, nevertheless, every time they roll out a new strategy and say: “This time everything will definitely be fine.”

Oksana Galkevich: Nikita Aleksandrovich, and I’m stuck on one more word. Justice, social justice. What do you think, these increasingly opaque hints that we are receiving regarding the pension system, that it requires urgent revision, it is necessary to come to the conclusion that it is necessary to raise the retirement age and cannot do without it. Here is the new head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin...

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, the same as his puppeteers, you know.

Oksana Galkevich: This is true?

Nikita Krichevsky: Excuse me for such a statement, but young guy... I, as a person who will be 50 next year and who has been a doctor of science and professor for more than 10 years, can tell you: in order to understand economic processes, this is definitely realistic for a person after 35 years, and then, moreover, if you are constantly engaged in science. These are social processes, because the economy is people, that’s the point. Economics, by definition, is a biased society. Economics by definition is about inequality. Society is equality, but economy is inequality. What is competition? You are better than others, which means this is already inequality.

Regarding the pension system. Let's first understand what justice is. My definition is three parts. Firstly, this is equality of rights, freedoms, opportunities for self-realization, education, health care (this is especially relevant for young people). Secondly, this is a fair or effective redistribution of national wealth, national income, that is, what we talk about when we mean a progressive scale of income tax. And thirdly, this is effective (now I’ll say smart words) social cooperation. What does it mean? These are our interpersonal interactions, whether in the entrepreneurial sphere (for example, we are creating an LLC with you) or in the non-profit sphere, that is, we are creating a non-profit organization (for example, a charitable structure or working as volunteers). Here are three tenets that define social justice. As for the retirement age, Mr. Oreshkin is essentially not talking about the retirement age, but about the fact that he doesn’t have money in the budget, so, excuse me, we can’t pay you that much.

Konstantin Churikov: No, wait a second...

Nikita Krichevsky: I have a question and I’ll finish: when there was a lot of money in the budget 10 years ago, why didn’t Kudrin propose lowering the retirement age from the current 60 for men to 40? Well, there’s plenty of money – so lower it! But today you don’t have money, why until 63, let’s get to 80 right away, then you’ll definitely solve all your problems.

Konstantin Churikov: Just a second, here, as far as I correctly understand Gazeta.Ru, to which Maxim Oreshkin gave an interview, we are talking about the fact that he is simply putting us (trying) before a choice, trying to prepare us that we either raise the retirement age and the size of the pension may increase, The quality of healthcare can improve, and maybe education along with it...

Nikita Krichevsky: These are incompatible concepts.

Konstantin Churikov: ...or remains at the same level, but our healthcare continues to deteriorate and, accordingly...

Nikita Krichevsky: It doesn’t fit in any way, because the pension system exists at the expense of pension insurance, and healthcare at the expense of the budget and at the expense of medical insurance. Oreshkin simply doesn’t know about it, he’s so smart.

Konstantin Churikov: Could the Minister of Economic Development not know about this?

Nikita Krichevsky: Why are you surprised? Why are you surprised if he doesn’t understand that raising the retirement age is a medical and social concept, as we have already talked about. That is, it is necessary to conduct a study of how much the working capacity of the population has increased on average and by industry, and then raise the retirement age. All the way we proceed from the fact that we have no money in the budget, no money. But Oreshkin cannot understand why there is no money, because what was he doing? I read this interview - he worked at VTB Capital, worked at the Central Bank, and worked somewhere else. He was either an official or a stock analyst, that is, a speculator. And you want Oreshkin to think about you? My dears, what are you talking about?

Oksana Galkevich: Let's take another call.

Konstantin Churikov: Alexei.

Oksana Galkevich: Alexey from Moscow. Alexey, hello.

Viewer: Hello.

Oksana Galkevich: Yes, we are listening to you, please speak.

Viewer:Yes, good evening, dear presenters, good evening, Nikita Aleksandrovich. On the issue of Oreshkin and the issue of trust in government agencies. Nikita Aleksandrovich, a small question regarding such an important body for all citizens as Rosreestr, and the results of its activities in recent years. Do you see a need to reform this structure so that it is more open, more effective and, let's say, useful for society?

Konstantin Churikov: For what purpose are you interested, Alexey?

Nikita Krichevsky: Because Alexey... I understood what he was talking about. Alexey has a tense relationship with Rosreestr.

Konstantin Churikov: We just felt it...

Nikita Krichevsky: And we know each other through social networks, and, unfortunately, I’m not an official, I’m not Oreshkin. For example, I can’t help him in any way. And you can’t do anything on television either.

Konstantin Churikov: Treat on TV.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes, even if he now gives out all his data, coordinates and numbers of applications and demands, what will this change? This doesn’t mean that our television is bad, but that we don’t have trust. This suggests that we have those representatives of incomprehensible metropolises sitting in their leadership positions and working in their own interests. And then they come here and talk about the Motherland and patriotism. One simple example and we move on. Not so long ago - everyone has heard about this - there was a story where a young man’s car was stolen, and he discovered it...

Konstantin Churikov: I searched by region and found it in Belarus.

Nikita Krichevsky: I followed the trail, called the police, said: “So here’s the car, here, pull up, do everything!” And they say: “Yes, we understand, we understand.” The car drove into the territory of Belarus - in 12 hours everything was tied up, in the impound lot, comrades in the bullpen, everything was fine. 12 hours, and here he drove for them for 3 days, if only someone would move.

Konstantin Churikov: Pourquoi?

Nikita Krichevsky: And one more episode, for that matter. A girl's car was stolen, it was in St. Petersburg. They found it in Moscow, it is parked and is sold through Avito , can you imagine? They found their car. This girl’s boyfriend calls and says to the seller: “I’m on my way.” They themselves flew out from St. Petersburg, imagine, got to Moscow, talked as best they could, called the police for 1.5 hours, waited 1.5 hours for the squad to arrive. They realized what had happened, got into this car and drove away.

Oksana Galkevich: And they moved to another place.

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes. And after that we are talking about Rosreestr? After this, are we talking about restoring trust? So this is the little things.

Konstantin Churikov: In a situation where the authorities are not needed (and the police are representatives of the authorities), and people, it turns out, do not need the authorities, in this case the police, where do we end up?

Nikita Krichevsky: I have already said that there are two options, two roads, two paths: either this is a movement towards restoring trust and justice in the country, or this is a direct path to social disaster. Because our people are very patient, our people are very trusting, they are sincere, they are wonderful. We are a young nation, if anything, we are a young nation. But we can’t stand it forever, that’s the story.

Oksana Galkevich: Nikita Aleksandrovich, Kostya said, when the authorities don’t need people, when people don’t need power. But the thing is...

Nikita Krichevsky: What you say is not entirely correct, Kostya. Power is also people.

Oksana Galkevich: Yes. But these people...

Konstantin Churikov: ...as if they were different.

Oksana Galkevich: ...they understand about these people, about us, only when, excuse me, I bring you to the next topic, as Mr. Ulyukaev said today in court...

Nikita Krichevsky: Oh, another comrade, well done.

Oksana Galkevich: He said: “It’s only when you’re on the other side that you realize how hard people live, and when you’re doing well, you just turn away. Forgive me, people.”

Nikita Krichevsky: A stingy man's tear rolled down his unshaven cheek.

Oksana Galkevich: Realized.

Nikita Krichevsky: Next Friday, Mr. Ulyukaev will most likely receive a guilty verdict on the proven fact of receiving a bribe. Oh, forgive me, people... Excuse me, when in 2006 you, Mr. Ulyukaev, as the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, staged a drunken brawl on an Aeroflot plane, were you thinking about people? You were flying in business class, and your girlfriend or wife, it doesn’t matter, was in economy class, and you demanded from the commander that she be seated in business class. The commander refused, you began to attack him, to put it simply. The commander said: “Either he gets out, or all 350 people who are flying get out.”

Konstantin Churikov: By the way, we talked with this pilot - remember, Oksana?

Oksana Galkevich: It was another pilot, Kostya, you're confusing.

Konstantin Churikov: Oh, there was another pilot.

Oksana Galkevich: The Irkutsk governor is there.

Nikita Krichevsky: How did it end? - all 350 people came out to an announcement at the Sochi airport: “The flight is delayed due to the boorish behavior of one of the passengers.” It was Mr. Ulyukaev, this is a well-known story. Did he think about people then? No no. Only when he was on the other side did he finally... What happened? He ended up on the bunk, they forced him into the yard, the street for revenge? Nothing happened, how did he live in his elite “Golden Keys” in an apartment with an area of ​​346 meters or how much?

Konstantin Churikov: Residential complex, we know.

Nikita Krichevsky: He lived there and still lives there. Just as he had a full dressing room or a bathtub of dollars, euros and expensive watches, it remained that way. What changed? Just as they brought him food from restaurants, they probably still bring him food. Of course, I wasn’t, but I suspect that this is exactly as it was, and it is, it’s not for nothing that he lost weight - diet food, my friends, costs 50 thousand rubles a week, this is the minimum price with home delivery, 50 thousand rubles, I can’t afford it, but Ulyukaev is easy.

Oksana Galkevich: Excuse me, for breakfast, for lunch, for dinner or per day?

Nikita Krichevsky: Yes Yes.

Oksana Galkevich: Straight into the heart.

Nikita Krichevsky: They bring it here on purpose - everything is clearly written out: “Heat this, eat this, mix this, and don’t shake this.” And in the end it turns out to be 50 thousand rubles.

Konstantin Churikov: I understand that this needs to be asked of the audience, I just don’t have time anymore, but it’s still interesting. Who do you think the people sympathize with more in this story – Sechin or Ulyukaev? Right now.

Nikita Krichevsky: The people sympathize with the truth. The people do not like both Rosneft and Ulyukaev equally, and I understand the people. But the same people say, 43% according to a VTsIOM poll say: “Yes, Ulyukaev should receive a real sentence.” Not even 43%, in my opinion, more than half, 53% or 57%, but 43% are talking about the confiscation of his property, these apartments, cars, land plots, watches and everything that he has accumulated over the years of exemplary public service. Poor thing.

Konstantin Churikov: This was Nikita Krichevsky’s “Personal Opinion”. Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics, Professor. Thanks a lot.

Oksana Galkevich: Thank you.

Konstantin Churikov: And in a couple of minutes, don’t switch, it will be interesting too. Let's talk... About what, Oksana?

Oksana Galkevich: Let’s talk, dear friends, about digital confusion, about how new technologies do not add order, but, on the contrary, add some kind of chaos to our lives, how digital paradise turned into digital hell. Join the discussion in just a few minutes.

Konstantin Churikov: Welcome to our digital reality in a couple of minutes.

Nikita Aleksandrovich Krichevsky

Russia: through sanctions - to prosperity!

© Krichevsky N. A., 2014

© ITK Dashkov and Co. LLC, 2014

To the reader

In recent years, and especially in recent months in light of sanctions events, Russia has been in dire need of a change in economic policy. There is no previous rate of economic growth, prices for raw materials are marking time, and budget revenues are not increasing. Moreover, many previously breakthrough states dream of restoring their previous economic speeds; in the old days, they were lulled by the raw materials, food, and stock market conditions, the appearance of social stability, and the approval and support of the population.

Economic growth in a single state, despite its apparent simplicity, is an extremely complex issue. The theory is confused in three pines (accumulation, productivity, institutions), analytics does not provide universal answers, and practice is also contradictory. In addition, Russia, which was also sluggishly looking for an economic foothold in the 2000s, was hit by an avalanche of all kinds of sanctions in 2014 - from financial restrictions to infrastructure bans. As a result, production stagnates, there are practically no financial resources, prices treacherously creep up.

Collapse? No, chance! My country finds itself in a unique historical situation when, thanks to skillful targeted decisions of the leadership, competent and, in some cases, intuitive management of the economy, understanding of the need and readiness for changes in society, we can reformat our national economy in a relatively short time, changing from a shabby freight train to high tech express.

Are we capable of this? Will we have enough knowledge and resources? Are there any options? I hope that this book will help us all.

The first chapter will show the futility of searching for a theoretical secret to economic growth. Increasing the accumulation of physical and human capital, increasing the total productivity of production factors, and improving the quality of institutions are certainly important, but in what proportions should these ingredients be mixed?

The second chapter analyzes the main statistical indicators of the development of leading economies. It was also not possible to identify general patterns, with the possible exception of artificially low exchange rates, significant amounts of money supply in the leading countries and, of course, high investment activity. However, the last feature hardly requires any proof. In the third chapter, correlations of many qualitative parameters of breakthrough economies are found. This includes the state-clan economic structure, the dynamics of innovation-oriented “growth points,” and the stimulation of industry and import substitution. The presented qualitative aspects, as well as some quantitative indicators of the economic development of breakthrough economies, made it possible to classify emerging markets into two models - social conservation and economic breakthrough. Moreover, economies corresponding to the model of social conservation are now slowing down, while the force of inertia in the growth of state social obligations in them is, as before, great.

The fourth chapter reveals the essence of the mainstream theoretical attitudes of the West. The Washington consensus, globalization, the collapse of Ukrainian industry, expanding anti-Russian sanctions - all these are phenomena of the same order, the meaning of which is the deindustrialization of developing economies, the opening of new markets for their own products, and the inculcation of dependence on Western handouts.

The fifth chapter states that the structure of the Russian economy remains similar to the late Soviet one. Hence the presence of previous risks and scenarios, in the event of which the Russian economy will most likely face nationalization, prescriptive pricing, strict control over the business community, in a word, a rollback. At the same time, history knows many examples of firm, decisive actions of foreign government leaders in difficult socio-economic situations.

In the sixth chapter, we will talk about priority measures to reorient Russian industry towards the domestic market: the advantages of benchmarking, the cluster organization of new production facilities in single-industry towns, and ways to increase the competitiveness of workers.

In the seventh chapter, when considering the financial basis of an economic breakthrough, the need for a non-inflationary expansion of the money supply is substantiated, the lack of alternatives to weakening the ruble and freezing budgetary social obligations is deciphered, proposals are made for the introduction of a special tax for foreign speculative investors, the creation of a Russian rating agency, and the development of a network of regional banks, especially in Siberia and in the Far East.

The eighth chapter examines the state-clan system of economic organization that has developed in Russia and in almost all breakthrough economies. In order not to indulge in abstract discussions about the benefits and harms of private ownership of the means of production, the chapter compares specific intermediate results of the activities of two Russian raw material giants.

The general approaches presented in the book are generally known and have been partially proposed by many researchers in one form or another. By and large, the answer to one question remains unknown: will our bureaucracy have enough professionalism, competencies, and organizational abilities to take advantage of the sanctions window of opportunity? Will it happen that the window will first turn into a window, then into numerous cracks, and then the building itself will collapse? This has already happened in the recent past - the once fundamental structure called the “Soviet Union” collapsed like a house of cards, but its destroyers never received applause.

Do you want to repeat that experience? Personally, I don't.

Book one

In search of a common beginning

Chapter 1. Mysterious economic growth

The country's best research minds are unsuccessfully struggling to resuscitate the growth of the Russian economy, trying in vain not even to repeat, but at least to get closer to the sky-high indicators of the 2000s (in 2000, GDP growth was 10.0%, in 2003 - 7.3%, and in 2007 – 8.5%). True, scientists, with rare exceptions, do not take into account the extremely favorable external and internal macroeconomic circumstances of those years, when prices for raw materials and stock assets grew by leaps and bounds, the post-default devaluation of the ruble contributed to a surge in import-substituting production, and foreign investments (not only speculative, but also real) flowed into Russia like a river.

In the middle of the second decade of the new century, after the so-called Great Recession, the situation in the Russian economy changed dramatically, which means that the previous recipes for economic growth predictably will not work. Moreover, a similar picture has developed not only in Russia - many developing countries have faced similar problems and, like us, are painfully searching for an answer to the question of what extraordinary needs to be done in order to return to the previous macroeconomic trajectory, or at worst, maintain positive parameters development.

The question will remain unanswered until we comprehensively analyze the essential features of both Russian and global economic development. In this chapter, we will focus on the theory of economic growth and make sure that theoretical unity does not exist in principle, which means that it is pointless to believe in finding generally applicable scientific concepts.

There is no universal cure for all diseases.

The essence of the conversation

In the established understanding, economic growth means an increase in total output over a period of time and is usually measured in terms of annual GDP growth rates. It’s easy to say, it’s difficult to identify and launch growth drivers, especially in our economy, which has structurally changed little since Soviet times, and even against the backdrop of Western sanctions.

In today's Russia, a superficial judgment prevails that economic growth depends primarily on increasing labor productivity (previously, it was added to the rapid development of institutions, and recently another abstraction has appeared - reindustrialization). This is a misconception, although not without foundation. Economic growth is a function not so much of labor productivity as of a number of much more important variables: the dynamic and differentiated accumulation of physical and human capital, a sustainable increase in the total productivity of production factors and, concomitant with previous processes, an improvement in the quality of the institutional environment that facilitates the implementation of entrepreneurial initiative.

In contact with

Classmates

This person does not appear on the air of famous political talk shows very often, but his every appearance remains noticeable to fans of such programs. Everything related to the domestic and international economy is explained in an understandable form, and the most confusing situations are clarified for understanding by every viewer. The expert's name is Nikita Krichevsky.

On a December day in 1968, in the capital of the USSR, a boy was born into the Krichevsky family. They named him Nikita. It is noteworthy that it was Friday the 13th. Our today's hero is ambivalent about his date of birth. But the ominous mystical notes in the guy’s life did not prevent him from growing to one of the most authoritative Russian economists, publicists, and managers.

Nikita went through the standard path for Soviet citizens: from kindergarten to school and conscription into the army upon reaching the age of 18. He was demobilized as a civilian in 1989. From a large number of activities, he was attracted to financial activities. Quickly realizing that without special education there was no way to progress much along this path, he entered the Ordzhonikidze Academy of Management. I graduated from the university as an external student in 4 years. Later he defended 2 dissertations – a candidate’s dissertation and a doctoral dissertation. In the nineties, he worked in the banking sector, while simultaneously pursuing teaching and research.

In 2006 he was awarded the academic title of Professor of Economics.

Academic degree – Doctor of Economic Sciences.

In the period from 2010 to 2011, he headed the public organization “Support of Russia”.

In 2011, he was included in the A Just Russia list after Gennady Gudkov. But when the latter’s parliamentary status was taken away, his fellow party members did not trust him with the mandate.

From 2013 to 2016, he held the position of chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences.

He has written several hundred scientific and journalistic articles. He became the author of such teaching aids and textbooks as: “Insurance of investments”, “Social insurance”, “Risk of raiding” and others.

Was married, currently divorced. Father of 2 children.

In 2003, Nikita Aleksandrovich became the hero of a scandalous story in which he found himself together with his father, Alexander Vladimirovich. He sued his son for alimony for his maintenance - a thousand rubles. Krichevsky's parents officially separated back in 1969.

Has no relation to the famous Ukrainian singer Garik Krichevsky - just namesakes.

According to Krichevsky

1. Moscow is the best city in the world, but the place where the majority seems to dissolve.
2. Mother Lidia Fedorovna understands finances no worse than her son, at least she is aware of all rates and quotes.
3. After Putin appointed Medvedev to the post of prime minister, economic life in Russia went awry.
4. As soon as the state is faced with the fact that there will not be enough budget money to pay pensions, the next amateurs will again begin to reshape what has not been altered.
5. If undeclared assets are found and proven, any offending official is subject to immediate dismissal and will be held in high positions and positions for life.
6. The government is diligently looking for options to reduce budget expenditures, not realizing that it would be most effective to start saving from ourselves.
7. Russians are not lazy people, we just have a unique motivation for work. Our people can only be forced to work well by crop failure, war and epidemic.
8. By competently applying the peculiarities of the national character and based on the positive experience of past years, the Russian Federation can make a real breakthrough in economic development.
9. We need to bring back the progressive income tax and restore the inheritance tax, since the heirs did not put in the effort to create what the previous generation was able to do.
10. Russian bureaucrats cannot define what is called luxury. And it's really not easy. After all, what we considered luxury 30 years ago can now be affordable to almost everyone.
11. The dependence of the ruble on the price of oil will not let go of the Russian economy for a long time.
12. Our only power is President Vladimir Putin. All the rest are temporary workers. Today you are deputy prime minister, and tomorrow you will be removed, and in six months no one will remember you except your family.
13. Russian business has no sense of social responsibility. All they know is to spend on themselves, buy football and basketball clubs.

This person does not appear on popular political talk shows very often, but his every appearance remains noticeable to fans of such programs. Everything related to the domestic and international economy is explained in an accessible form, and the most confusing situations are clarified for every viewer to understand. The name of the specialist is Nikita Krichevsky.

Biographical information

On a December day in 1968, in the capital of the USSR, a boy was born into the Krichevsky family. They named him Nikita. Interestingly, it was Friday the 13th. Our today's hero has an ambiguous attitude towards his date of birth. However, the ominous mystical notes in the guy’s fate did not prevent him from growing to one of the most authoritative Russian economists, publicists, and managers.

Nikita overcame the typical path for Soviet citizens: from kindergarten to school and conscription into the army upon reaching the age of 18. He was demobilized as a civilian in 1989. Among his many activities, he was attracted to financial activities. Quickly realizing that without special education one could not advance far along this path, he entered the Ordzhonikidze Academy of Management. I graduated from the university as an external student in four years. Later he defended two dissertations – a candidate’s dissertation and a doctoral dissertation. In the 90s he worked in the banking sector, while simultaneously pursuing teaching and research.

In 2006 he achieved the academic title of professor of economics.

Academic degree – Doctor of Economic Sciences.

In 2010-11, he headed the public organization “Support of Russia”.

In 2011, he entered the A Just Russia list after Gennady Gudkov. However, when the latter was deprived of his deputy status, his fellow party members did not trust him with the mandate.

From 2013 to 2016, he served as chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences.

Krichevsky wrote several hundred scientific and journalistic articles. He is the author of such teaching aids and textbooks as: “Investment Insurance”, “Social Insurance”, “Risk of Raiding” and many others.

Married, now divorced. Father of two children.

In 2003, Nikita Alexandrovich got into a scandalous story with his dad, Alexander Vladimirovich. He sued his son for alimony for his maintenance - a thousand rubles. Krichevsky's parents divorced back in 1969.

Has nothing to do with the Ukrainian singer Garik Krichevsky - they are just namesakes.

According to Krichevsky