Five reasons why Scotland wants independence. The UK left the EU: Scotland and Northern Ireland are leaving England for Brussels How the UK voted on the Brexit issue

“When change is forced on us, we must have the right to choose,” Sturgeon said at the start of Tuesday’s debate. “The people of Scotland must also have their say,” the minister urged.

The Brexit referendum took place in June 2016. In total, 51.9% of the British voted for leaving the EU, but the Scots were in favor of maintaining ties with the European Union. In each of Scotland's 32 territorial areas, Brexit opponents won. In the region as a whole, 62% of voters were in favor of keeping the country within the EU.

Based on this, Sturgeon insists that Scotland is being forced to leave the EU against the will of its citizens and the results of the Brexit vote prove this. “The UK government makes decisions entirely unilaterally, which in my opinion and the opinion of many others is destructive for our economy and position in the world,” the head of the Scottish government said. She also added that "the decision about what country we are in and what path we take can only be made by the people of Scotland." Sturgeon explained: “Over the past two years, the Scottish Government has been developing a number of proposals aimed at protecting Scotland from the consequences of Brexit. And if even one had been considered by the British government, we would not be debating a referendum today."

Scotland has already held a referendum on leaving the UK. The first independence referendum took place on September 18, 2014. Then 55% of Scots voted against independence.

Patriot Games

The possibility of a second referendum has caused conflicting opinions among politicians.

For example, Scottish MP Alex Neil, a former minister in Sturgeon's government, in the first round of debate on March 21, emphasized the need to wait for the final agreement between London and Brussels on the terms of Brexit and then decide on the date and the very need for a referendum. “If negotiations between Britain and the EU go as planned (and that’s a big if) and are completed by October 2018, we will still not be able to understand the essence of the final deal until it is ratified by the parliaments of all parties involved,” Neil said in interview with The Telegraph. “It would be wiser not to confirm the referendum date until the Brexit deal has been finalized.”

The parliamentary opposition in Scotland, primarily the Labor and Conservative parties, have already expressed their disagreement with the initiative. In particular, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, pointed out that voters were “fed up with games of independence.”

In addition, says Deputy Neil, before holding a repeat vote, it is worth enlisting the support of the people, with which Edinburgh still has many difficulties. According to a The Sunday Times poll published on March 19, only 32% of Scots support Sturgeon's intention to hold a referendum before Brexit negotiations are completed. Another 18% want to hold it after leaving the EU, while 51% of Scots are generally against a second independence referendum.

Scottish Labor leader Kazia Dugdale said during Tuesday's debate that "the views of the Scottish National Party and the Greens do not reflect the will of the Scottish people." “We are divided enough as it is, don’t divide us again,” Dugdale urged.

Supporters of Scottish independence outside the Houses of Parliament in Edinburgh (Photo: Russell Cheyne/Reuters)

Liquid values

​According to the same poll, if the referendum does take place, only 44% of respondents will support Scottish independence (versus 45% in the vote three years ago). Previously, Sturgeon and other leaders of the ruling Scottish National Party have repeatedly argued that the failure of the referendum was due precisely to the desire of the Scots to remain in the EU by maintaining the region within Britain. The Scottish Government is interested in maintaining close ties with the EU: first of all, we are talking about the common market. In 2015, the EU accounted for around £12.3 billion of Scottish exports, or almost half of all shipments outside Britain.

However, this amount represents only 16% of Scotland's total exports, while 63% (£49.8 billion in 2015) is exported to the rest of the kingdom. Senior researcher at Oxford University and Valdai Club expert John Lloyd draws attention to this. According to him, close trade ties reflect the mutual dependence of Scotland and the UK, which is also reflected in subsidies to the Scottish economy from London.

At the time of the 2014 referendum, Scotland's main exports were oil and whiskey. However, falling energy prices have collapsed Edinburgh's oil and gas revenues. In the 2013/14 financial year, revenues from North Sea wells amounted to exactly £4 billion, a year later they fell to £1.8 billion, and in the 2015/16 financial year they amounted to just £60 million (a collapse of 97%). At the same time, excise taxes on alcohol alone have consistently accounted for about £1 billion in revenue to the Scottish budget in recent years.

When speaking about the sharp collapse in oil revenues, the government revenue and expenditure agency (GERS) is referring specifically to budget revenues—taxes on oil corporations. However, the official Scottish Statistics Agency estimates the potential value of oil produced in 2015/16 to be much higher - at £10.1 billion (oil and gas condensate, not counting natural gas).

This figure has decreased by 29% since the 2014/15 financial year - noticeably weaker than budget revenues. North Sea Brent oil, notes the Independent, is expensive to produce, and a price of around $50 per barrel - along with a drop in global demand and an increase in supplies from the Middle East - makes its production unprofitable.

According to Scottish statistics, 15 years ago the operating costs of oil companies amounted to about 20% of the cost of oil and gas produced; by the 2015/16 financial year they had risen to 50%, and together with capital costs they already exceed potential revenue.

In August 2016, Sturgeon admitted for the first time that the collapse of the energy market had caused an economic shock, the consequences of which were covered by subsidies from London. No specific figures were given, but inconsistencies in the balance sheet suggest that subsidies to Scots would need to be £1,600 per capita (about £9 billion) to achieve a deficit-free budget.

“Based on current trends, an independent Scotland should expect a budget deficit of 9%,” explained RBC Lloyd from the University of Oxford. “This is one of the most significant indicators in Europe.” At the same time, to join the EU, a candidate country must have a budget deficit of no more than 3%.

Battle of the Iron Ladies

British Prime Minister Theresa May opposes a referendum on Scottish independence, and according to the law, it is impossible to hold it without the consent of London. May said she would not agree on a referendum date until Brexit negotiations were completed.

On Monday, March 27, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon met at a hotel in the Scottish city of Glasgow. During the hour-long talks, Scotland's First Minister insisted the people of Scotland needed a referendum on independence before Britain left the European Union. She explained that the Scots must choose their own path. Theresa May told her that “now is not the time” for a referendum. May believes that leaving the EU is an excellent opportunity to strengthen ties between all residents of the country.

Nicola Sturgeon later described the meeting as “cordial” but expressed disappointment that May had not made concessions on the referendum. Sturgeon said May expects the future relationship between the UK and the EU to become clearer in the next year or two. Sturgeon said: “My response was that I want Scots to make informed choices when the terms of Brexit are clear.” May assured Sturgeon that the terms of the Brexit agreement would be determined in 2018-2019.

Brexit has pushed Scotland to take new steps to separate from the UK. Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament) voted on Tuesday evening to hold a second independence referendum.

Debates in parliament began a week ago, on March 21, and voting was scheduled for the next day. However, on the 22nd, a terrorist attack occurred in London: 52-year-old Briton Khalid Masood first hit several people with a car on Westminster Bridge, then stabbed a policeman near the British Parliament building. As a result, four people were killed and 50 were injured. This tragic incident forced Scottish MPs to adjourn the debate.

They resumed on March 28. The referendum was opposed by Labour, Conservatives and Democrats. However, the parliamentary majority represented by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Greens who supported it prevailed. Result: 69 deputies voted for the referendum, 59 against it.

Uncooperative

The initiative for a repeat plebiscite belongs to the SNP, whose leader, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, took it to parliament immediately after the congress of this nationalist party made the corresponding decision. Sturgeon said that the referendum should take place before the end of the Brexit procedure - between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019.

British Prime Minister Theresa May reacted quite sharply.

"We have to work together now, not divide. We have to work together to get a good deal for Scotland, a good deal for the UK, and that's my job as Prime Minister. So I'm telling the Scottish National Party that now is not the time ", she said in an interview with Sky News.

According to the prime minister, in the current situation of uncertainty, holding a new referendum on independence is simply dishonest, because people do not have the information necessary for such a serious decision.

On the eve of the resumption of the debate, Theresa May met with Nicola Sturgeon, their negotiations were “cordial” and “businesslike”, but, nevertheless, Holyrood returned to consider the issue of a second plebiscite. As a result, the Scottish Parliament voted to give the First Minister the right to hold a referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon promised to submit a preliminary plan for its preparation to parliament after May 16. At the same time, speaking to deputies, she stated that the referendum itself should still be held after the terms of Brexit become known, “in order to evaluate them and compare them with the challenges and opportunities that the country’s independence brings” - that is, in essence, repeated Theresa May's argument.

Scotland against Brexit

The Scottish government held a referendum on independence on September 18, 2014. If voters had voted then to secede from the United Kingdom, independence from it would have been declared on March 24, 2016. The Scottish government even drew up a detailed plan for further action, which, however, remained on paper: 55% of voters voted against ending the 300-year union with England.

The reason to once again raise the issue of an independence referendum was Brexit. On June 23, 2016, a nationwide plebiscite was held in Great Britain, in which 51.9% of the citizens of the United Kingdom who took part were in favor of the country leaving the European Union. At the same time, 62% of Scottish voters voted against Brexit, as did 55.8% of voters in Northern Ireland. England and Wales voted in favor of leaving the EU, although a majority of Londoners (59.9%) voted against it.

Scottish nationalists did not fail to take advantage of the results of the Brexit vote. Nicola Sturgeon said that such a significant change in the situation gives them the right to organize a second referendum, since the Scots, unlike the British, do not want to leave the European Union at all, and in order to remain in it, they will have to leave the United Kingdom. She even encourages all Britons who want to stay in the EU to move to Scotland.

"You are not welcome here"

Even before the parliament in Edinburgh decided to hold a second referendum, Brussels hastened to dispel its hopes that Scotland, if it gains independence, will be able to “remain in the European Union.” The official representative of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas, said at a briefing that in the event of Scotland separating from the UK, it will have to “join the general queue” of states wishing to join the European Union, and it will also be admitted there on a general basis.

The same statement was made by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said that an independent Scotland would have to join the North Atlantic bloc as a newcomer.

Both will be very difficult, since in order to join these organizations a new state will need the consent of all their members, and the Spanish authorities have already announced that they will not only not support Scotland’s accession to the EU, but will not recognize its independence.

Spain, which has been experiencing a difficult problem with the separatism of Catalonia for decades, always perceives any process of national self-determination as extremely painful. For example, Madrid has still not recognized the independence of Kosovo.

“The European Union is not too interested in Scotland separating from the UK. It is not of particular value to the EU to facilitate its separation from the United Kingdom. Even after Brexit, Europe will be more interested in such a strong partner and mediator between it and the United States as an integral Great Britain. Therefore, in Brussels they are making it clear in advance that they are not expecting an independent Scotland with open arms,” says Timofey Bordachev, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

For getting out from everywhere

However, the Scottish nationalists who are now in power are not stopped either by London's protests or by the cool reaction of the EU and NATO. As for the mood of the Scots themselves, they are indeed changing - and quite quickly: the share of supporters of independence in Scotland has reached its maximum since 1999, but the number of Eurosceptics has also increased. This is evidenced by the survey, which is conducted annually by ScotCen.

46% of respondents now support Scottish independence, double the level in 2012 when the campaign for the first referendum was launched. Separatist sentiments are especially strong among young people: separation from Great Britain is supported by 72% of respondents aged 16 to 24 years.

At the same time, 62% of Scottish residents now support Britain leaving the EU or reducing the powers of pan-European governments. It turns out that the desire of the Scots to remain in the European Union is becoming a very dubious argument for the fighters for Scottish independence. But that doesn’t stop them either.

There won't be a second Catalonia?

The situation in the United Kingdom is unlikely to follow the Catalan scenario and is unlikely to take on a violent protest form, believes Timofey Bordachev, according to whom, the situation in the UK will continue to remain within constitutional frameworks.

“The UK is not such a rigid unitary state as Spain, and the degree of civility of political relations there is still different. Therefore, I think that Theresa May’s clear indication of her position does not mean that she will be ready to go further,” says the expert.

“The dispute between Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May has so far only concerned the timing of the referendum. I believe that Downing Street is unlikely to resist the decision of the Scottish Assembly and prevent the holding of the plebiscite within the time frame chosen by the Scottish authorities,” says the head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an expert at the International Valdai Discussion Club Elena Ananyeva.

When holding the first referendum, London and Edinburgh committed themselves to fulfilling the will of the people, whatever it turned out to be, recalls Alexander Orlov, director of the MGIMO Institute of International Studies. By initiating a new referendum, Scottish politicians are retreating from previous agreements, he believes.

“Confrontation will inevitably arise, and the only question is what forms it will take. While it is of a political nature, it can then develop into a phase of a showdown at the legal level. Protests may also break out, however, it is difficult to imagine that London will begin to act like this using clumsy methods, like, say, Kiev, and will, for example, bomb Scotland - especially since all British nuclear submarines are based in the Glasgow area. In any case, the situation there is unlikely to lead to violence," says Alexander Orlov, who believes that the Scottish nationalists have a better chance of succeeding this time than they did two years ago.

On Thursday, British Prime Minister Theresa May was due to announce the start of the country's exit from the European Union. Instead, the main topic of the day was the Scottish Prime Minister's announcement of his intention to hold a referendum on secession from the UK. London can take the country away from Europe only at the cost of disintegration - either of its own state, or of a united Europe.

The former world hegemon cannot decide on the direction of his movement. After the majority of citizens (52 percent) last June, contrary to the expectations and wishes of most of the elite, unexpectedly voted for the UK to leave the EU, the British government still cannot begin the Brexit procedure itself.

Just a few days ago, Prime Minister May was expected to announce on March 9 that the time had passed - and the process, which is expected to take two years, would officially begin. But last week the House of Lords introduced a number of amendments to the Withdrawal Bill, so the start of Brexit had to be delayed until the end of March. However, there is no certainty that the UK will actually leave Europe in the end. More precisely, it is not clear whether all of it will come out of it. Scotland once again reminds of its desire to remain in the EU - which means London is being asked to choose between maintaining the unity of the country and independence from the European Union. So, of course, it is possible to leave the EU - but as a result of the exit itself, part of it will break away from the United Kingdom.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in an interview with the BBC that a new referendum on independence is possible as early as autumn 2018. Officially, the course for a referendum may be taken next week, on March 17, when a conference of the ruling Scottish People's Party in the autonomy takes place - but Sturgeon is its leader, and she formulates her position quite clearly. Even earlier, she said that “the inflexible May is pushing us towards a second referendum,” and now she directly stated:

“As the UK's deal to leave the EU becomes clearer, I think it would be the right time for Scotland to make its choice.”

The Scots want to vote early, before the country leaves the EU - in order to say that in this case they are leaving the UK. The likelihood that the population of the north of the island between the EU and the UK will choose a united Europe is very high. Just look at the results of the latest votes.

Yes, supporters of Scottish independence lost the referendum in September 2014, but it took place under completely different conditions. And the Scots were frightened by the fact that if they left the UK they would have to leave the EU, and partly this argument worked. After this, statements were made that a referendum takes place only once in a generation, so the next one should not be expected earlier than in 20 years. However, further events developed according to a completely different – ​​anti-European – scenario.

Nine months later, in May 2015, the Conservatives again won the parliamentary elections - largely because leader Cameron, wanting to attract votes dissatisfied with European integration, promised to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership in the EU. The elites thought that the majority would still vote to remain in the union - however, in June 2016, supporters of full British independence won.

They won, however, not everywhere. In Scotland, 62 percent voted against leaving, while in the UK as a whole only 48 percent voted against leaving. Thus, the Scots showed that they do not want to leave Europe. But the four-hundred-year-old alliance with England may well be destroyed.

The situation for London is extremely unpleasant. A referendum in Scotland requires permission from the central government, and Theresa May may not give it. So far, London denies the very possibility of the collapse of the state: “Our position is absolutely clear: we do not believe that a second referendum should be held,” May’s representative said on Thursday. At the very least, May does not want a referendum in Scotland to take place before Brexit is completed. The only problem is that Sturgeon does not agree with this.

And if the demand for a referendum is formalized at the level of the Scottish Parliament, London's refusal to allow the referendum will lead to a serious crisis in the relationship between the central government and Edinburgh. It will be impossible to block Scotland's resolve for long. If not in 2018, then a year or two later they will still have to be allowed to hold a referendum.

In addition, parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2020 in the UK, and by this time the country must decide both on leaving the EU and on Scottish independence. It will not be possible to combine one with the other - more precisely, the chances of this are illusory.

Theoretically, London has only one option to avoid a referendum in Scotland: to make concessions to Edinburgh on the issue of the European Union, that is, to maintain a single market for goods and services between Scotland and the EU. Then Sturgeon and her party will abandon the demand for a referendum.

But maintaining a common market between Scotland and the EU would be completely contrary to May's entire hard Brexit plan. Not to mention the fact that the EU will not be happy with this option, and the unity of Great Britain in this case will still be under threat. What kind of country is this, part of whose territory lives under different laws? Thus, in reality, there is only one way to preserve the unity of Great Britain: the Scots must become disillusioned with the European Union.

The former “mistress of the seas” herself is now unable to provoke confusion and vacillation in a united Europe - so we can only hope that Eurosceptics will begin to come to power in the EU countries. Thus, perhaps the only path to preserving the union of England and Scotland now runs through the victory in the French presidential elections Marine Le Pen and the defeat of the main European integrator Angela Merkel in the German elections in September. This is how the future of Great Britain and a united Europe is now being formulated through four women - May, Sturgeon, Le Pen and Merkel.

A 307-year-old alliance that once ruled one-third of all humanity is under threat. September 18 in Scotland - a referendum on the issue of secession of the country from the United Kingdom. UK and EU citizens permanently residing in Scotland will have to answer “yes” or “no” to the question: “Should Scotland become an independent country?” If the majority of voters respond positively, Scotland will be declared independent on March 24, 2016.

Street agitation in Edinburgh. Photo: RIA Novosti

The issue of Scottish secession has been openly discussed since the early 1930s, thanks to the emergence of the Scottish National Party. It was only about expanded autonomy within a single state.

Polls show that the Scots will still vote to remain part of the United Kingdom, but nationalists and Alex Salmond, head of the Scottish National Party, are adding fuel to the fire. The campaign for secession was aggressive, writes the Economist, with growing Scottish dissatisfaction with English complacency and indifference, as well as increased English resentment of the Scots for whining and freeloading: only high support for the campaign to remain in the union would bury the issue.

1. Improving the well-being of the population

Nationalists believe that in the event of secession, the Scots will be able to increase the level of income of the population by 1000 pounds per year per capita.

That number, however, according to the Economist, is based on implausible assumptions about the price of oil, Scotland's debt burden, demographics and productivity. The British government's estimate that Scots would have a £1,400 per year higher income per year if they remained part of the kingdom is based on more realistic assumptions. Scotland's population is older and less healthy than the UK average, and productivity is 11% lower than the rest of the UK. As a result, the government spends £1,200 more on each Scot than on other Britons.

Secession would also lead to new costs: Scotland would have to create its own army, social security system, currency and much more.

2. An independent Scotland will have more democracy.

The driving force behind the referendum question was the growing gap between the policies pursued by the UK coalition government in Westminster, led by the Conservative Party since 2010, and what Scots want.

The argument is that an independent Scotland will be more self-sufficient, more prosperous, suggests the Economist. Two generations ago there were as many Conservatives as Labor in Parliament, but Scots have not forgiven the Tories for the Thatcherite policies they imposed on their heavily industrialized economy. Recently, nationalists dressed up as pandas to remind Prime Minister David Cameron (a representative of the Conservative Party) that Edinburgh Zoo has more pandas (two) than Scotland has Tory MPs (one). Encouraged by the idea of ​​devolution voiced by Tony Blair and the financial support of Westminster, Scottish social policy differs from England's. University education is free for Scots, but not for English or Welsh; The state provides care for a higher percentage of older people in Scotland than in England and Wales.

Healthy democracies tend to respond flexibly to regional differences, of which there are plenty across Britain. The north-east of England and Wales, both pro-Labour, also oppose the Westminster government.

The Economist believes that the balance of political forces in Great Britain does not deprive the Scots of power. Two previous prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, were born in Scotland. Scotland is represented by a disproportionate number of MPs in Westminster. Edinburgh has its own legal system and its parliament can decide on a wide range of issues, including health, education and housing. At the same time, the leaders did not exercise their right to change the income tax rate: this is unlikely to be due to the fact that the Scots are kept on a leash by legislators from Westminster.

3. Oil separatism

As with many other famous stories, sentiment for secession grew strongly following the discovery of Brent oil fields in the North Sea in 1970. Under the devolution project, North Sea oil will be used to create a special fund - like in Norway (and in Russia) - to help future generations. "Scottish oil reserves are enormous," says Independent Scotland, a website set up to support the secession campaign. "The majority of oil revenues go to Westminster. The Scots will become one of the richest nations in Europe if they secede."

At the moment, 40 billion barrels have been produced, the remaining reserves are 24 billion barrels.

Prime Minister Cameron believes that the North Sea is a British success story, and now more than ever it is important to support the industry with a broad British shoulder (according to SNP opponents, production is becoming increasingly difficult). According to estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the drop in oil revenues will be 38% by 2017-2018.

4. Declining role of the church

According to history professor Dovit Brown from the University of Glasgow, Scotland and England have become increasingly distant from each other since the collapse of the British Empire. The decline of the Presbyterian Church in Scotland, which provided a sense of self-government and Scottish identity, also played a role in fueling the desire for independence.

5. Scotland has been independent for much longer than part of the UK.

Scotland was an independent state from 843 to 1707. It is believed that Scotland became part of the United Kingdom because it was desperate for money, but opponents believe that the Scots who signed the Act of Union were bribed.

The Scottish poet Robert Burns wrote: "We are bought and sold for English gold. Such is the gang of robbers in the country!" Now the Scottish Government is hoping to write a new chapter in Scotland's history.

ALL PHOTOS

During the referendum, the majority of people in Scotland were in favor of remaining in the EU: 1.66 million Scots supported the continuation of European integration, one million voters in this region voted against it
Global Look Press

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, against the background of the referendum in Great Britain, in which supporters of leaving the EU won, said that Scotland sees its future as part of the European Union, the BBC Russian Service reports.

“Scotland has clearly and decisively voted to remain part of the European Union,” the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) said. Earlier, she noted that Brexit could become a prologue to the independence of Scotland, which, we recall, previously voted in a referendum to remain part of the UK.

During the referendum, the majority of Scottish residents were in favor of remaining in the EU: 1.66 million Scots voted for continued European integration, while one million voters in the region voted against it.

The Scottish Government will begin preparing the legislative framework for a new independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon announced that to begin preparing documents, a parliamentary decision is needed that a referendum is the best way to preserve Scotland’s place within the European Union and the single European market. Former Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond also called for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

In Northern Ireland, they also opposed Brexit: 440 thousand voters supported the idea of ​​maintaining Britain's membership in the EU, and 349 thousand were against it. The Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein said Northern Ireland should be allowed to hold a referendum on unification with Ireland.

"Today's decision dramatically changes the political landscape in the north of Ireland and we are reinvigorating our long-standing call for a vote," party chairman Declan Kearney said. Sinn Fein said the British Government's "authority to represent the economic or political interests of the people of Northern Ireland has been revoked."

In Wales, voters were in favor of Brexit: 854.6 thousand voters were in favor of severing relations with Brussels, and 772.3 thousand were in favor of maintaining EU membership.

In Europe, after the referendum results, representatives of far-right parties became more active. Thus, in France, the leader of the National Front Marine Le Pen