War in Donbass in August. The situation in Donbass is close to critical. Diana Mikhailova, independent military expert
Attempt on the life of the head of the self-proclaimed “LPR” Plotnitsky. Increased intensity of shelling. The rhetoric of “hurray-patriots” in Russia and Ukraine, calling for “a decisive offensive and victory.” Crisis in diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine. Mutual incitement to hostilities. The rapid decline in popularity both among the leadership of the “DPR” and “LPR”, and among the Kyiv elite - the drop in ratings is compensated by the belligerence of conversations in the face of impoverished people. There is a complete feeling of an approaching catastrophe - a full-scale war in the center of Europe. Those who like to shed blood (not their own) incite the parties against each other, hinting at a quick and final victory...
She won't be there. Neither side will win. There will be a massacre with tens of thousands of dead.
Unrecoverable losses
The events of mid-summer in Ukraine and in the rebel “republics” of Donbass cannot be called anything other than an escalation.
A month and a half ago, President Poroshenko, speaking at the National Guard training center, promised to quickly resolve the issue of sending its rapid reaction brigade to the front line for “testing in combat.” At the same time, OSCE observers in Ukraine reported a sharp increase in armed confrontation in Donbass. A couple of weeks later, with a difference of three days, the head of the state institute for strategic studies, assistant to the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Gorbulin, and deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Grigory Karasin announced the approach of a big war in eastern Ukraine at a meeting with the ambassadors of France and Germany.
On July 6, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that it was developing measures in the event of a full-scale invasion of the country, including strengthening work with reservists. There are even plans to create a base for the partisan movement in the occupied territories. At the same time, the highest ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces usually refer to the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR” as occupied territories.
On July 23, Rada deputy Nadezhda Savchenko spoke in favor of centralizing power in Ukraine and the need for a “harsh hand” for Ukraine. Immediately, a discussion began in the leading media, which was started by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Turchynov: a fair number of experts, deputies, current generals and not the last rank of officials literally demand the introduction of martial law throughout the country. And one Rada deputy from the Poroshenko bloc even named the date of its introduction - Monday, August 1.
If only everything was limited to verbal interventions! All these prophecies are confirmed daily by reports from the “DPR”/“LPR” and the ATO zone. According to our sources, the aggravation began after June 29. Then the Ukrainian motorized infantry, with the support of tanks, captured two key heights in the Debaltsevo area. At night, “DPR”/”LPR” troops transferred reserves to this area and restored the status quo the next day. Six rebels were reported killed, and imminent losses on the Ukrainian side are unknown. Almost at the same time, full-scale fighting began in the industrial zone near Avdiivka, where our correspondents visited, and then along almost the entire demarcation line.
What will happen if the big war returns? What forces are opposing each other on both sides today? How many will be wounded and killed? Are intense battles possible in large cities? Will opponents be able to achieve their goals and under what circumstances?
We asked all these questions to the commanders of the newly rebuilt DPR/LPR army. According to many of them, too much of society in Russia and Ukraine today is inclined to complacently assess the prospects for a full-scale war, which politicians predict. Public opinion in the rear, despite the inappropriateness of such an expression, adapted to the ongoing losses in reports from Donbass. While civilians in the battle zone and professional soldiers (in this case in rebel enclaves) view it as a huge disaster.
Two employees of the Russian special services who observed the situation in the “DPR”/“LPR” personally and based on reports from agents agreed to comment on the views of the combatants. The editors use for analysis officially published data and statements of senior military officials and officials of Ukraine. We have not yet received equally frank answers to these questions from the Ukrainian military. But this material, without a doubt, will also be included in the future history of the Donetsk war, which is being created before our eyes through the efforts of journalists from the leading countries of the world.
Those killed after the battle for Donetsk airport. 2014. Photo: Maria Turchenkova
In contrast to the period of active hostilities, which were covered by many Ukrainian, Russian and foreign journalists on both sides, today the situation in the armed forces of the “DPR” and “LPR” is almost unknown to the general public. Meanwhile, the transformation has taken place on a grand scale, and this is perhaps the most important circumstance affecting the future of Donbass, which is being discussed in Kyiv, Moscow and the capitals of the Normandy Four.
In January-July of this year, during business trips, we met with experienced combatants. Many of them have Soviet and Russian military schools and academies behind them, and after the disarmament of the militia units, they ended up in the formed First and Second Army Corps of the DPR/LPR army, signed contracts and are now official military personnel of these unrecognized state entities. Some hold leadership positions there. We asked them to speak about the past, present and future of the armed conflict in Donbass from a purely professional point of view.
“LPR”/“DPR”: to whom does the army obey?
Initially, people from military intelligence were involved in the process of formation of government bodies in the “LPR”, and counterintelligence and security forces in the “DPR”. This has given rise to differences in approaches to management. Thus, the “LPR” does not have a Ministry of Defense. Coordination of actions and communication with the Second Army Corps created in this territory is carried out by Plotnitsky’s assistant with a small apparatus. Plotnitsky did not have any personal detachments of militants.
In the “DPR,” on the contrary, a Ministry of Defense was created in an attempt to take control of scattered militia units. The Ministry rather maintained the appearance of centralized control, trying to organize interaction between these units.
Soon after the beginning of 2015, many completely detached militia commanders were killed or sent into retirement. Russian and Ukrainian media had no doubt that these military leaders were eliminated with the assistance of Russian intelligence services, although there were no facts directly indicating this. After this, the functions of the DPR Ministry of Defense became completely decorative.
Later, with the creation of the First and Second Army Corps of the “DPR”/“LPR”, some former commanders were included in their composition. These armed forces live a life completely independent of politicians, not reacting to attempts to imitate their leadership. And such attempts do take place.
The difference in approaches to governance, laid down by the “founding fathers” of both republics, resulted in serious political and economic consequences: unlike Plotnitsky in the “LPR”, the leader of the “DPR” Zakharchenko really gained a lot. According to our sources, he and his inner circle are most actively seizing the property and business of fellow citizens who have left for territory controlled by Ukraine. In June, commanders of the DPR/LPR army began openly talking about real estate in Spain acquired by top officials from Zakharchenko’s entourage over the past year. In the spring, an officer from one of the special services, who regularly visits the DPR to meet with agents and monitor the situation, described the situation this way.
the story of a special services officer who regularly visits the “DPR”
— Zakharchenko remained a bandit. The scale of tasks in managing a city of millions, often critical, did not lead to an increase in the scale of the individual. He is unteachable. The other day, while drunk, I punched a cook in the face in a restaurant. In the morning, without explanations or warnings, having missed the meeting that he was supposed to lead, he went to make peace and apologize. This is his level.
By the beginning of this year, a significant part of the large stores in Donetsk and the region were nationalized and managed by Zakharchenko’s wife. The cargo of humanitarian convoys from the Russian Federation is distributed with the participation of Zakharchenko. A considerable part of these products are then sold in his wife’s stores. At the same time, Rinat Akhmetov’s “humanitarian aid” completely reaches the recipients on the ground.
This is why control over the “army” is so important for Zakharchenko: by losing the opportunity to use force, he risks losing both power and the family business.
Clinging to his powers, the political leader of the “DPR” constantly gave birth to administrative and military initiatives. Back in early 2015, he unexpectedly gave the order to launch an attack on Mariupol. It was a pure gamble, an attempt to start a massacre, to draw as many troops as possible on both sides into it, so that it was no longer possible to jump out of the battle. However, most commanders refused to obey Zakharchenko, and the initiative collapsed just as suddenly.
The mediocre, unprepared assault on Marinka, organized by Zakharchenko in early June 2015, led to losses: more than 30 people killed and more than 100 wounded. In the last year, such savages no longer happened - the “DPR” government finally lost the ability to control the army.
The Ministry of Defense of the “DPR” is headed by a certain Kononov, nicknamed Tsar, a famous militant, former sambo coach and small businessman. He became famous for the fact that he and his beloved traveled along the runway of the Donetsk airport in a tank, inviting Ukrainian artillery fire on themselves. Those were trips for adrenaline, nothing more. This psychological baseboard limits his talents in organizing the defense of the unrecognized republic. Let us only add that the Ukrainian artillerymen, in response to the challenge of this risky man, used to start a duel, which often turned into shelling of residential areas of the city.
Avdeevka. 2016. Photo: Anna Artemyeva - “New”
— Many militia commanders rushed not to defend their native land, but to “squeeze out” enterprises, cafes, restaurants and hotels. 90% of partisan commanders eventually came to this form of supplying their troops.
There was a case: due to the peculiarities of the operational plan, one brigade for the defense of Debaltsev was transferred from the Second to the First Army Corps. She was known for collecting bribes from drivers for driving on the roads she protected. The commander there at that time was the Tsar’s brother. He was removed in the traditional way back in the USSR: he was sent to the corps for promotion.
Since part of the money went to the Tsar, he took the liquidation of the feeding trough very painfully. And he answered asymmetrically. The Tsar recorded conversations between the commanders of various units of the First Corps (often obscene) with impartial assessments of his leadership. And then he wore them to the corps commanders and to his acquaintances in the special services. These intrigues were partially successful - competitors were sometimes removed from their positions. Next to these passions, the situation in the LPR, where Plotnitsky, without much PR or visible results, is trying to resume the work of factories under sales guarantees from Russia, seems almost pastoral.
How adequately do politicians in Moscow assess the situation in the “LDPR”? This can be judged from this episode.
An official delegation from Russia, which arrived on a visit to Donetsk, accompanied humanitarian aid. A man who introduced himself as Rogozin’s assistant then decided to offer Zakharchenko a commercial project: to open a chain of Magnit stores on the territory of the “DPR.” The answer from the local elite came eloquently: “Are you friends with your head? Zakharchenko, whose wife has a monopoly on all large stores in the region, will create a competitor for himself with your help? You look like serious men, but you talk with childish enthusiasm.”
Although, of course, Russia tried to support the self-proclaimed republic not only at the highest level. Ordinary people also participated.
The story of a command staff member
— Some civilians contacted our military ( From Russia . — Ed.) with the following sentences: “We propose to train your artillerymen as professional fire specialists. We're pros."
“Okay, come on over, let’s talk about what’s what,” the locals answer. Three fancy ones arrived. We have already fought there, they say. We are ready to assist you in training specialists for spotting and artillery reconnaissance.
“Excuse me,” the responsible officials of the DPR army ask, “what is your basic education?”
- I'm a mechanic. But it is not important.
— Did you serve in the army?
- No, I didn’t serve.
The commander who participated in the conversation
“At first I didn’t even understand that they were offering it for money. Then everything turned out to be completely funny. There was a lot of interesting things in the DPR/LPR then from the point of view of criminal business. Well, these only made it to the final analysis and received nothing. No hotels, no restaurants. So they wanted a roof to be made for them, and under it they would enter our territory. It turned out to be a brother.
Cellar of the Kushchov family house in Slavyansk. 2014. Photo: Andrea Rocchelli Defeat the army of thugs
Military reform in the enclave, according to our interlocutors, was a measure that was both forced and belated. On the eve of the bloody battles in the Debaltsevo area, the future strategic advantage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces no longer raised any doubts among the local military (unlike politicians). There was no longer any hope for the scattered militia detachments, the logistics of which were organized by the commanders using openly gangster methods. But the political situation in the self-proclaimed republics did not allow the construction of an army to begin “according to science” until the winter of 2014/2015.
The organization of the First and Second Army Corps made it possible to build a more professional defense in case of a sudden Ukrainian offensive. The first building, located in the “DPR”, is larger both in terms of area of responsibility and staff. The total number of the entire group is 30-32 thousand people. On the other side of the demarcation line they are now opposed by up to 90 Ukrainian battalion tactical groups (about 100 thousand people). The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has trained troops and sharply increased the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - the main means of army reconnaissance in this war.
The story of a command staff member
— On the territory of the DPR/LPR immediately after the end of the war there were many military formations, each of which sought to maintain its own prisoners of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And they made money on the exchange. Ukrainians ransomed prisoners for an average of $10,000. Mainly relatives, of course. What to say? Practical banditry.
Motorola, as far as I know, did not indulge in this, but Givi did. Also, the Cossacks and the GRU DPR are complete scum. Imagine, they even sold the bodies of dead guys from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They collected them directly from the field and kept them in strange refrigerators. Bodies with documents were especially valued. We contacted relatives: do you want to bury yours humanly? And this is a practice not only in 2014; all this chaos occurred sporadically even after the operation near Debaltsevo in 2015. It was so.
The creation of a DPR/LPR army corps formation began in December 2014 partly because of this. And at the beginning of 2015, when the massacre began in Debaltseve, they had not even been formed yet. Previously it was impossible to carry out this reform. But by April 2015, we managed to disarm about 40 units. This is approximately 70% of the personnel who took part in the defense of the republics. And the Chechens were there, and whoever else was not there.
Four-fifths of these gangs disarmed voluntarily. The last one was Troy. Even their patron came from Russia to negotiate the surrender of weapons, because they formed a unit for Kobzon’s visit, as a security detachment, that is, for a short time. Well, Kobzon left, but the detachment remained.
They talk a lot about themselves, but if you seriously recheck their exploits, it turns out that they really didn’t do anything useful, only robberies and looting behind them. 50% of the team were volunteers from Russia. The command of the First Army Corps called their commander Bely five times for a conversation and offered to keep their unit in the corps after sifting out the slag. We tried to give someone a chance. But later, about eight of them were kicked out in disgrace from the first territorial defense battalion of the First Army Corps for drug use. 18 people are now in the MGB, about 10 are wanted.
There are such “amateurs” on both sides. For example, four Islamic battalions have been brought up from that side in recent months. Two formed, two in formation, one purely Chechen. We have information about the battalion commander. There are also private military companies, three detachments, mostly Poles, 300-400 people. They are on duty at the forefront. There were even blacks! Well, these are isolated cases, of course. They haven't been seen for a long time.
On the Donetsk side, by the way, a detachment of the private military company “Wagner” also fought, they have now been withdrawn. Their task was to fight enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups at the forefront.
In terms of monetary content, the situation has also leveled off. On January 20, new payments went to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They began to divide the military into those who simply serve and those who are in the ATO zone. The last to add 1200 hryvnia(about 3100 rubles. — Red . ). And there are military personnel who are on the front line; they received 4,200 hryvnia added to their salary ( about 10,800 rubles. — Red . ). In total, on the front line, a simple soldier receives approximately 8,000 hryvnia ( about 20,800 rubles . — Red . ), and sometimes even more. For comparison: a fighter of the First and Second Army Corps today receives 15,000 rubles.
Mariupol street after shelling. January 2015. Photo: Vassualii Nechiporenko The story of the deputy brigade commander for combat training
— The material and technical supply of the DPR/LPR army in different parts is very different. Sometimes it is such that the weapons of grandfathers are used. Local DPR territorial defense battalions are positioned along the front line. They do not have ATGMs, and in order to strengthen them in anti-tank terms, the commander approved such a plan. About 50 five-round anti-tank guns were found in local warehouses ( anti-tank rifles . — Ed.) from the time of the Great Patriotic War, model 1943. To fire a shot from a sniper rifle, you must lean out. But with PTR on a bipod you don’t need anything. From 500 m it takes almost everything on board except a tank.
Novaya Gazeta military correspondent Yulia Polukhina wrote that the “LPR” detachments in the summer of 2014 consisted of more than 60% locals, and in the “DPR” there were units where sometimes 80% of the personnel were from visitors. Today, Russian citizens from the rank and file of the DPR/LPR army have practically disappeared. This is primarily due to the cessation of active hostilities and the cessation of funding for volunteers by large philanthropists. Of the approximately 32,000 personnel of the two army corps, up to 30,000 are citizens of Ukraine, which is confirmed by observations of seconded editorial staff, documents and personal testimony of our interlocutors.
About experience, past and present
story by the deputy chief of staff of the DPR/LPR army brigade
— When the detachments were formed before the Debaltsevo operation, this was the percentage - two-thirds of locals in Lugansk and more than half of visitors from other regions of Ukraine and Russia in Donetsk. About 40% of the personnel during the operation within a week threw down their weapons and fled. There were more than 2000 of them. In the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at least a third also deserted from Debaltsev.
At the first stage of this epic, the psychology was simple: I fight to the border of my city, and I don’t care what happens next. It's different now. For example, the leadership of the army corps and the Tsar became enemies because his brother’s brigade was taken away as a tool for profit. But how dramatically supply, safety, and fire control have improved! However, for some heads of the republic these are not arguments; they turn a deaf ear.
Slavyansk, cemetery. 2014. Photo from the archive Chances of Ukraine and “LDNR”
At one time, in response to a request from the editors, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine sent a letter confirming the permanent presence of a very large contingent of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the “LPR”/“DPR”. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we are talking about 13,000 personnel of fully equipped units and several hundred units of military equipment for various purposes. Assuming that the Ukrainian military did not make a mistake, what does this mean from a purely military point of view?
Now those who actually controlled the military operations in Donbass have expressed their opinion. In a short retelling it is like this. At various times, a number of battalion tactical groups of formations and units arrived at numerous training grounds along the border with Ukraine. The interlocutors especially emphasized - in completely different periods and in different places. If you just collect them all in one place in one minute, then 12 thousand will not be collected. Because one battalion tactical group is a maximum of 600 people plus attached equipment units. And the largest number of them was collected on the border with Ukraine - 6 pieces (only one indicated the number 7). More than four and a half thousand people have never gathered near the border with Ukraine. And NATO intelligence knows this very well.
And if a group of 13,000 operated on the territory of Ukraine, it could easily, in any direction, be it Donetsk or Lugansk, seize the entire territory of the region within the administrative borders and liberate it from units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the shortest possible time. Even if they had overwhelming numerical superiority at that point in time.
But if this is so, then, from the point of view of professionals, did the Ukrainian army have a chance to achieve success in 2014?
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces could have eaten the partisans with porridge, but they were stupid to not directly send troops into Donetsk itself. The rebels did not have a joint headquarters, disorganization would begin. And Lugansk in general is a quarter of Donetsk. What is there to capture? But the Ukrainian leaders did not dare to surround the city, leave the humanitarian corridor, divide it into two parts and begin cleansing.
And here are the words of his colleague in the leadership of the headquarters of one of the army corps of the DPR/LPR army.
Opinion of the Deputy Chief of Brigade Intelligence
— There was a moment when the Ukrainian Armed Forces could build on their success and win completely. This is when Strelkov was still around. If only they hadn't stopped then. It is unknown why they acted hesitantly. After all, they could have taken all the main cities even without fatal losses. It was stupid to stretch the troops into such a thin sausage along the border. Capital stupidity.
Our command considers the level of planning of operations, including Debaltsevo, to be low. They were a complete mess. But they will not be like this forever; someday they will correct the situation. Although they, of course, will not push all this stupid volunteerism anywhere - the opposition will not allow it. This is a negative factor in the military development of Ukraine, which really works in favor of Donbass.
However, all our sources noted that the strengthening of the positions and combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has recently been in full swing. Starting in the summer of 2015, the Ukrainian army gradually gained strength, and a layered infrastructure was built along the demarcation line for future military operations. A state engineering and construction enterprise with a good fleet of equipment equipped general-purpose bunkers and command posts with laid communications. Excavators removed the soil, a standard transport container was inserted into the trench, reinforced concrete floors were laid on top, which were again filled with soil. Agree, these are no longer roadblocks made of car tires, which journalists laughed at in the spring of 2014.
At the same time, according to intelligence data from the First and Second Army Corps, testimonies of defectors and deserters, the condition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units today is far from ideal. Food is delivered to the fighters once every 5-6 days, but they eat everything in three days. There are parts where these scissors force soldiers to live on pasture: they sell scrap metal, engage in trade and smuggle goods into enemy territory. They eat up the money sent from home.
Separately, it is worth mentioning the collection of tolls on protected roads. According to local residents and drivers, this practice was recorded on the bridge near the village of Shchastya, on the roads in the direction of Maryinka, Avdeevka and Mariupol. Until recently, fighters from the “DPR”/”LPR” detachments were doing exactly the same thing on their side.
A gate pierced by a shell. Artemov. 2016. Photo: Anna Artemyeva - “New” 
A shell fragment in a residential apartment. Novosvetlovka. 2016. Photo: Anna Artemyeva - “New” The story of a command staff member
— Despite these shortcomings, failures in supply and organization, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would still have won sooner or later if there had been no changes in the DPR/LPR army. What advantages does the regular army have over the rebel movement? When Leonidas led his detachment to Thermopylae, he met a detachment of Greek allies. An interesting conversation ensued with their commander, who boasted of the size of the detachment of 1,500 fighters. Leonid said: “Who do you have there? Craftsmen, farmers. And I have warriors.” Sometimes yesterday's schoolchildren are also recruited into the regular armed forces, but Engels correctly pointed out the advantages of organized military action using the example of the Franco-Turkish war.
To this day, the training of personnel, their equipment, the coherence of actions within the unit, the availability of military equipment, and reconnaissance devices are of paramount importance. We can imagine a partisan detachment with the same reconnaissance means. But they need to be maintained, and the militias never get around to this; they use the equipment until the first breakdown. There will never be enough such funds in a partisan detachment.
The Ukrainian army had all these advantages over scattered separatist detachments. Since Strelkov’s arrival in Slavyansk, no one in the DPR has fought beyond the outskirts of their nominal village or sought to help their neighbors. The defense of Slavyansk ended with the surrender of the city. Therefore, we do not consider Strelkov to be a skilled military leader, much less a hero.
Brigade commander's story
— The number of Ukrainian security forces in the ATO zone has never reached the levels that its political and military leadership officially announced. They added up the numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, border guards and SBU employees. But when the leadership announces numbers, citizens of Ukraine must understand that only the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting. Everyone else is essentially service staff.
For today ( January-February 2016 . — Red . ) in three directions - Donetsk, Lugansk and Mariupol - up to 70 thousand employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated and another 30 thousand provide them. By April they must increase the grouping of Armed Forces employees to 100 thousand plus 30 thousand support ( According to Novaya Gazeta, these target figures for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense were achieved belatedly, by the end of May. — Red . ). According to my estimates, during the peak period of fighting in the ATO zone, there were about 35 thousand military personnel, scattered in different directions. At the same time, on our side they were opposed by, at best, about eight thousand.
Moreover, Zakharchenko and his henchmen even managed to make money from these scattered detachments. For example, the locals submitted an application for 5,500 people. The corps command agreed and considered that they could be formed into a brigade and two separate assault battalions plus two special forces battalions. They began to build this whole crowd. And there are only 2500 in it. Where is the other half? After all, the money was allocated for 5500.
That is, the money was written off to no avail, but not even half of the personnel were there. When all this came to light, they began to hush up the situation, and the corps command filed a report.
It’s also a shame that we work like damned things, forming everything from scratch, and Zakharchenko’s people almost openly declare that they consider us their servants...
While differing in details, all our interlocutors agree on one thing: an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quite likely. This conviction is based on the understanding that the Minsk agreements contain two (in their opinion) impossible points. The leadership of the “DPR”/“LPR”, with the support of Russia, will not surrender the border to the control of the Ukrainian security forces. The Ukrainian leadership is unable to change the constitution in accordance with the spirit and letter of the Minsk agreements.
While differing in details, all our interlocutors agree on one thing: an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quite likely
Ukrainian society also demonstrates bellicose sentiments. They predominate for the most part in Western Ukraine and Kiev (but soldiers are more often sent to the army by mothers from Southern and Eastern Ukraine). This very important part of Ukrainian society and an even larger part of the elite, concentrated mainly in the capital, are inspired by Russia's experience in the recent wars in the Caucasus - the peace agreements in Khasavyurt were followed by a period of accumulation of forces and the rapid defeat of the Chechen militias in the Second Chechen War. There is a great temptation to present the Minsk agreements as some kind of close historical analogue of the Khasavyurt agreements.
If a strategic operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine breaks out to liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk regions from the rebels, no one will think much. The Ukrainian army has become stronger thanks to the extraordinary efforts of the state and society, and more organized largely thanks to the help of its allies. But the First and Second Army Corps of the “DPR”/“LPR” army will be on the defensive, and no one has repealed the law of defensive battle in terms of losses. And most importantly: this new bloodshed between armies that are seasoned, not going to repeat past mistakes, extremely motivated (our journalists are convinced of this on every new mission), and have accumulated anger and ammunition, will be incomparable in its intensity even with the hottest battles of 2014-2015 ; both sides will take casualties in huge numbers.
“The Ukrainian army will have to storm us. I don't envy them"
Interview with the Deputy Commander of the DPR/LPR Army
— President Poroshenko stated that a group of Russian troops of 32,000 people was concentrated on the border with Ukraine, ready for an offensive. This is true? Is the mass of Russian troops on this side of the border a warning to the Ukrainian military or politicians?
- Where? Two battalion tactical groups are on the border today. During the recent exercises, the entire Southern District was raised, that’s true. But the district’s troops are standing where they have been standing exactly in recent years, both under Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Fundamentally nothing has changed. This is not the border with Ukraine at all, these are gigantic territories, almost half the size of Europe. It’s to his advantage to name such terrible figures—politician. But I assure you, this is nonsense. Well, manipulation of numbers, if you will.
It is clear that politicians must justify their inaction. They are always and everywhere looking for ways to do this. In this case, it is convenient to refer to the Russian armies on the border.
— Volunteers, united in battalions with their own symbols, also fight on the side of Ukraine. They get most of the help that volunteers collect, because they are always heard. How do their opponents in the “DPR” and “LPR” army evaluate them?
— Yes, ordinary guys from the infantry or airborne forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not in the first place among the public, of course. Although there were no national guard battalions in any of the front ranks. If you evaluate it seriously. I can say for sure that near Debaltsevo they were not at the forefront.
Prisoners repeatedly testified that these units were also engaged in “strengthening discipline” among the others. That is, they almost acted as barrier detachments.
Ukraine has created its own legend about the heroism of its soldiers. For example, about what happened at the Donetsk airport. In my opinion, these guys were thrown to slaughter for the sake of creating a legend. The airport has no strategic significance; there is nothing to keep there. But in order to withdraw in an orderly manner from their positions across the take-off field, they had to overcome four kilometers of clear space. When the militias pinned them down, there was nowhere to go. Almost everyone who tried to retreat died. There was a sea of dead, but very small groups managed to retreat.
And to be honest, on the DPR side, no one suggested they surrender, it’s just that no one even had such powers. Scattered detachments stood around without any serious combat interaction. Who was to give up? The scumbags of this psychopath "Givi"? The defenders were simply doomed. The terminal was hit by artillery without a break; those remaining in the basement were hit with shaped charges; holes were made in the floor.
I myself was very interested in the issue of the participation of volunteer units in the operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I studied it. So, nowhere in the first line, on the front line, when going on the offensive, were they seriously present. Yes, according to their staffing, they have nothing heavier than a company mortar in their arsenal. Now the situation is changing. For example, the Aidar battalion is being introduced as a separate unit into the newly formed Tenth Mountain Infantry Brigade near Bila Tserkva. They plan to use it in the Carpathians; things are not going well for Ukraine there either.
But the most interesting thing is that they are all now being completely brought into line with the American structure. More precisely, the NATO structure. We have brigades and separate battalions. They don’t have that, they only have mechanized and motorized infantry brigades. There are three separate tank brigades. That is, a headquarters and infrastructure that can be quickly deployed for a specific task.
In general, we have a bad opinion of those National Guard battalions that we directly encountered as military professionals. This is not because of the personal training of the fighters, it is just no worse than average — we’re talking about the poor command staff of these units. They are, of course, sophisticated and give interviews often. But in reality their commanders are weak.
Graves of unidentified fighters. Donetsk. 2015. Photo: Noor / Yuri Kozyrev — In the “DPR” and “LPR” they are opposed by another army, with its own disadvantages and advantages. How would you characterize her?
— The difference between the “partisan armed forces” and what has now been created on the territory of the DPR/LPR is serious. Of course, a year is not enough for such work. Very little. But we still managed to change the worldview of the fighters by 70 percent. Only now those who are in officer positions are beginning to understand that without organization, without normal commanders, they will have nothing to catch in the future, no matter how it develops.
The gangster style has no prospects, everything will end in defeat. Therefore, now Zakharchenko has a minimal number of support votes among the local military. The big drawback today is the rotation system. After 10 months, only 45% remained to serve for the next term. The next rotation will take 90 percent. And this means all the training will be new.
Ukraine is coming to the conclusion that there will be only contract soldiers in the ATO zone. Now about 20,000 should leave there. The Armed Forces of Ukraine want 80% of them to sign contracts to continue serving ( According to official data, about 7,000 people signed contracts in the spring-summer of this year. —Ed). But in terms of the specifics of their combat mission, DPR/LPR officers are undoubtedly superior to the enemy. Maybe they don’t know the rules properly or something else. But in terms of the use of technology and tactics, they will surpass the Ukrainians. Well, they have considerable authority. After all, a commander without authority is zero.
— Did this war bring anything new to military science? New experience?
— Unfortunately, no one wants to acknowledge this new knowledge and new experience. Here, for example, are the battle formations. It is already obvious that there can no longer be any linear constructions, as is found in documents based on past experience. In particular, tank units should be built in a wedge or ledge.
A tanker must see his neighbor's tank. Otherwise, it will be psychologically much more difficult for him to complete the combat mission. Simply put, it will fluctuate much more in a linear formation. If tanks are assigned to infantry, the tank must be located next to the commander's vehicle. If a tanker lost the commander to whom he was assigned in battle, write — the matter is lost.
What we have always been taught: tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in front, infantry behind — this is no longer relevant. All tanks without infantry will be burned. Infantry ahead! And the tanks are covering it from behind. And no other way.
As for actions. Today there are rapid changes in the capabilities of fire weapons. In the Debaltsevo operation, the average consumption of ammunition was 11 wagons per day for the entire artillery group. This expenditure was determined, however, not only by the intensity of the fighting, but also by the general poor state of the means of combat. There are no new artillery systems—the wear on the barrels is enormous. It is impossible to achieve true shooting accuracy.
Our reconnaissance means are stunted, just old stuff. What are the years of manufacture? You can't look without tears. On the other side there are already AN/TPQ‑36 radars ( a modern portable counter-battery radar made in the USA, put into service in 2001. —Ed.) began to appear. And we don’t even have that.
Now about the use of UAVs. It gives a lot. It's time to create a structure for them. The drone service must flow from top to bottom from unit to unit. It should be taken into account that the resource of a drone that costs a lot of money is exhausted in a month and a half. Now count how many we need for active combat operations.
But that's not all. In order to conduct reconnaissance on a UAV, it must be loaded with a wide variety of payloads. Not just optics. And radar and radio equipment, which allows for reconnaissance in bad weather and determining the coordinates of objects for firing.
It is necessary to obtain good modern optical reconnaissance equipment. How much can you get by with B8 and B12 binoculars, developed in 1935?
We have practically no mining installations at all. There are wheeled and trailed minelayers, old stuff from the seventies. We need remote mining systems. In Afghanistan, petal mines were thrown from MLRS. And how many of them have remained since then? Well, the equipment we have is not the latest. Each armored vehicle has a low service life. We have already worked out 70 percent of it.
This war, of course, has its peculiarities. If hostilities begin, the winner will, firstly, be the one who delivers the most powerful fire strike against targets that he already knows in advance. And, secondly, someone who can competently link infantry actions with this fire strike. Not just infantry, but units trained for this specific case. All the same, until the infantry occupies a city, a populated area, and reaches the line, nothing will happen.
And for this we need fighters. Sorry, but the hundred-thousand-strong group that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have assembled here is not a piece of shit. For us, if we count all the bayonets, we get a maximum of 32,000. And no matter how much we force military science, in order to move to a different quality, we must first have quantity. Our advantage is that the DPR/LPR army will be on the defensive. It is the Ukrainian army that will have to storm us. The law of defensive battle is known—one in three or four. I don’t envy them, believe me, this is not bragging.
A local resident who was blown up by a mine. Commission payment. 2014. Photo: Anna Artemyeva - “New” — According to the latest public opinion polls in Ukraine, 20% of the population want an immediate military victory in Donbass. This figure has decreased in just four months. Back in March there were a third of them, which is a lot. True, the closer to the ATO zone, the fewer supporters of the blitzkrieg.
- Yes, a blitzkrieg is possible, there is always a chance. The Ukrainian army today is truly completely different. But citizens (and most politicians too) do not understand at what cost this will be achieved. After all, very serious military construction was going on on this side of the border as well. They can't even imagine the scale of the losses. Those killed will not be counted in hundreds or even thousands. Because they have reached an enormous density of troops compared to the summer of 2015. The 100,000-strong group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will operate in conditions of the use of fire weapons with colossal capabilities. Today we have both military and operational reserves of ammunition no less than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
For the Ukrainian military, if up to 60% of the supply norm reaches some groups, this is already good. I mean artillery and MLRS. After all, all storage units must undergo inspection and extension of storage periods. But this did not happen. Hence the use of unusable ammunition that does not detonate as expected, deviates in flight much more than normal, and so on.
They also carried everything that was left of the arsenals of the Warsaw Pact, everything that they could collect in Bulgaria, Poland, and Romania. Despite this, I repeat, Ukraine has a chance to win. But this military success will be achieved literally with rivers of blood. Because it is practically impossible to create a grouping even in one direction without being noticed. As soon as they bring the artillery to combat positions and begin to move, we will already know. And as soon as they withdraw groupings of troops to the initial areas for the offensive, we will not expect anything. Without details.
Residential building, Novosvetlovka. 2014. Photo: Anna Artemyeva - “New” “The Americans do not have such war experience as the Armed Forces of Ukraine”
A military intelligence officer talks about the role foreign advisers can play and reforming the Ukrainian army to fit the NATO structure
Before the campaign of Alexander the Great, the Athenian Naval League planned to capture Sicily, southern Italy and then Carthage. Thus, the campaign could begin to the West, and not to the East. It was Alexander who radically changed the whole plan, conquering militarily weak Persia. But if he had gone to the West, to equal opponents, it is unknown what kind of victories he would have achieved. That is, the question of the balance of forces and achieved results in military history comes first. How to evaluate the American experience in Iraq and in the Near and Middle East in general? What combat experience of modern warfare do the Armed Forces of Ukraine have today, in comparison with the NATO armies, whose instructors are training Ukrainians today? A military intelligence officer who was charged with studying it agreed to comment on this aspect.
— Will foreign training give anything to the Ukrainian troops? Not yet. But they are supplied with very good sniper rifles; the Donbass army is inferior in this regard. They have SVD, and the Ukrainians have NATO caliber 12.7. There are also 9.3 mm with good heavy bullets. Over the past three months, the DPR army has lost at least eight people from sniper fire. Head and chest hits right on the front edge. At night they get 200-300 m closer to the positions and equip themselves with a bed. At dawn they begin to work, and when they leave, mortars fire along the front edge, covering the retreat. Therefore, many mortar exchanges, which are later announced in the media, are not spontaneous.
In order to appreciate the difference between the wars in Iraq and Donbass, you need to know the tactics of NATO and the Ukrainian army. For NATO in Iraq, everything came down to identifying centers of power and putting them out of action. These are key objects and officials. They simply determined that it was necessary to take the capital.
Iraqi troops stood in defensive positions in full combat readiness. But no one attacked them; they were rather ignored. They sent sabotage groups and units of parachute units to the rear. They gave large cash bribes to officials in the government and in the provinces, ensuring local sabotage and general passivity in decision-making, delaying the passage of commands to the troops, even blocking them.
And then, under powerful information pressure, Saddam Hussein’s army simply fled. Although the Iraqi army was considered one of the most combat-ready in the region.
Well, they're Arabs. Now let's see how they fight in Ukraine on both sides. These are the Slavs. They all have the same mentality: hold on until the last, shoot until the last bullet. This is how it will continue, that’s the simple secret of this war.
Americans do not have the same war experience as the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They did not operate under conditions of such terrible shelling. Ukrainians are much more seasoned in this sense. And those NATO sergeants who came to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Lviv region, in fact, did not smell such gunpowder as the Ukrainians happened to do. True, today their army is being reformed under the command system, the NATO structure. And neither the Ukrainians, nor we, nor the Americans know what the outcome will be.
Valery Shiryaev
from the editor
conclusions
From the words of Novaya Gazeta’s interlocutors, several important conclusions can be drawn.
Since the conclusion of the second Minsk agreements, the armed forces of both Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass have reached a qualitatively new level: today they are much better prepared to conduct full-scale military operations than a year and a half ago.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a multiple superiority in manpower and a significant superiority in material and technical equipment, but the capabilities of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics are sufficient to wage a defensive war. Regardless of the final result, this war will not be “lightning fast,” but it will definitely be destructive and bloody.
The troops on both sides of the demarcation line are in a high degree of combat readiness, that is, a political decision to start full-scale military operations can be implemented in a short time, but it will not be possible to immediately stop them by political means.
The “Russian factor” will not play a significant role in this war: the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics are almost entirely staffed by soldiers and officers with Ukrainian citizenship.
That is, this will be another “hybrid war”: civil, but with the participation of two professionally trained armies.
In such a war there will definitely not be a winner, but there will certainly be huge casualties. Our interlocutors estimate their possible scale at tens of thousands of people. At the same time, as military people, they only talk about combat losses. At the same time, the demarcation line runs through densely populated areas, with Donetsk, Lugansk and a number of smaller cities directly behind it.
According to the UN, as of April 1, 2016, there were about two thousand civilian deaths, with total casualties approaching ten thousand. But if you add to these statistics more than 3,600 missing people, the ratio of civilians to military among the dead could be one to three or higher. This means that the price of the war will be thousands of dead and tens of thousands of wounded civilians.
So there is only one conclusion, and a very simple one. A new “big” war in eastern Ukraine, no matter who started it and whoever celebrated victory in it, will be a deliberate crime.
But politicians and “public figures” on both sides of the demarcation line continue to escalate the situation.
“What is our ultimate goal: the return of territories without people, the return of people, or the return of territories with people. The most difficult thing is the last one,” says Deputy Minister for Occupied Territories Georgiy Tuka.
“Build an army, and in five years conquer it by military means,” suggests the head of the Donetsk regional military-civil administration Pavel Zhebrivsky.
“In the event of a serious aggravation at the front, a new mobilization will be announced immediately,” reports Alexander Turchynov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.
“Kyiv adheres to the military option for resolving the conflict. These are harbingers of full-fledged hostilities,” insists the Chairman of the People’s Council of the “DPR” Denis Pushilin.
“If Kyiv attacks us again, I can say one thing: let them not complain later when retreating to Kyiv. There will be no Minsk-3,” boasts the head of the “DPR” Alexander Zakharchenko.
A new big war will indeed not end with a truce. This is a geopolitical catastrophe, primarily for Ukraine.
Grozny. 1995. Photo from the archive Diana Mikhailova, independent military expert
The only thing that can give at least some hope to the current leadership of Ukraine for a forceful solution to the Donbass problem is only a simultaneous offensive throughout. But even these military plans of the Ukrainian military-political leadership would be appropriate and would give a chance for a quick victory in July 2014, but not in August-September 2016...
Generals are always preparing for the last war. The current Ukrainian military-political leadership is no exception. We must pay tribute, in the time that has passed since the summer defeat of 2014 and the February 2015 that reinforced it, he (the leadership) managed to achieve significant changes in the organization, formation and supply of the Ukrainian army. The number of trained fighters who were fired on increased and the mobilization reserve increased, because even about 200 thousand people officially became participants in the hostilities in the country. The number of combat units has doubled. The serviceability of military equipment has increased significantly, although its quantity is still considered insufficient, but it is already sufficient to perform basic combat missions. In proportion to the monetary allowance, the morale of the security forces also increased.
At the same time, Ukrainian commanders know better than anyone at what cost the current improvements have been achieved. The growth of the military budget, taxes and tariffs, credit bondage and other unpopular decisions, including flirting with radical and marginal layers, are inevitably bringing economic catastrophe and political crisis closer. Moreover, the lack of funds in the state budget has already begun to affect even the holy of holies - military spending, and militant Russophobic rhetoric is no longer capable of deceiving even the most blinded by hatred and narrow-minded “patriots of Ukraine” who want here and now victory in the Donbass, prisons for bandits, economic prosperity and the immediate achievement of other “Maidan ideals.”
Fully aware of the fact that it will not be possible to satisfy all thirsty patriots, Western partners and “Russian aggressors” under any circumstances, and it is somehow illogical to deprive oneself of one’s loved ones, the Ukrainian leadership can take any adventure, as it no longer does demonstrated once. The most dangerous of them may be intensification of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, which all the iconic figures from the president and his advisers to bloggers and volunteers have been talking about in recent days.
The only one who can give at least some hope to the current leadership of Ukraine for a forceful solution to the Donbass problem can only be considered simultaneous offensive along the entire demarcation line.
In this case, the defenders will not be able to identify the directions of the main efforts and transfer reserves to them. In the history of military art, such an operation was called the “Brusilov breakthrough” after its organizer. Unlike the battle of the First World War, the task of the Ukrainian security forces will be not only to distribute efforts along the entire front, but also to “compress” them in time. The entire operation, from its “sudden” start in the form of a counter-offensive in response to “aggressive attacks by the separatists” to its victorious conclusion on the border with the Russian Federation, should take less time than it would take for the Russian army to launch defensive or counter-offensive responses from its territory. actions. The strongholds of the armed forces of the self-proclaimed republics, which cannot be defeated, destroyed by air or artillery strikes, or put their personnel to flight or forced to surrender, will be left to be devoured by the second and third waves, which will consist of, among other things, two years ago they were called volunteer battalions.
They will build on their success and continue the lightning-fast offensive towards the Russian border in the identified weakest and most breached areas and directions, since the territory of the theater of military operations allows for rapid maneuvering of forces.
A prerequisite for the success of such a blitzkrieg is also support by massive air and artillery strikes on communication lines, leading to Russian territory and between strongholds of the LDPR.
In addition, such an operation will require the maximum concentration of all available forces and means and their rapid activation.
The final chord of a successful war will be an immediate appeal to the UN, NATO, EU and OSCE with a request to protect a brave but peace-loving state in the very center of Europe from “new Russian aggression” and to prevent the genocide of its population, simultaneously finishing off pockets of resistance and delaying it as long as possible. the inevitable Russian reaction to the treacherous and final breakdown of the peace agreements. Possible “peacekeeping forces” or “international observers” will have to arrive at the “liberated borders” with the Russian Federation and record the withdrawal of troops.
The stated plan is not easy to implement and prepare, however, as follows from the noticeable aggravation of the military situation almost along the entire length of the demarcation line and the absence of the parties, according to the reports of the OSCE SMM, in the storage areas of heavy weapons allocated under the terms of the Minsk agreements, a significant part of it has already been completed.
Moreover, a number of sources have repeatedly reported that the start of a long-prepared offensive operation has already been postponed several times due to the painful reaction of Russia, which literally on the eve of D-Day, determined by the Ukrainian command, organized sudden military exercises and tests of the combat readiness of troops, reminiscent of similar events before the August war of 2008. This, as well as the influence of Western partners, has more than once stopped the running machine of war, to the great displeasure of true patriots of Ukraine.
The next meeting of the contact group on Donbass took place in Minsk. As reported authorized representative of the LPR Vladislav Deinego, the parties again failed to agree on the disengagement of forces. And forecasts poured in from politicians about how events in the region would now develop. The forecasts, it should be noted, are one more alarming than the other.
Full-scale hostilities in Donbass may resume if Kyiv does not begin to implement the first three points of the Minsk agreements. As stated DPR plenipotentiary representative in the contact group in Minsk Denis Pushilin, in this case, there will be a resumption of intense hostilities due to the fault of Kyiv.
Let us remind you: the mentioned points of the agreements require the parties to immediately ceasefire, the withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides to a distance of 50 kilometers from each other, as well as ensuring effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and withdrawal of weapons. Despite the fact that these agreements were signed long ago by both warring parties, the situation in the conflict zone, according to Pushilin, is worsening every day. And there is no progress after the latest negotiations on a political settlement.
“The situation remains tense; at any moment it could flare up and develop into full-fledged military clashes. Ukraine does not fulfill its obligations both in the military and political spheres. Not only we see this, our citizens see it, who signed a petition to the UN Security Council about Kiev’s non-compliance with the agreements. There are more than 320 thousand such people in the DPR,” Pushilin stated, adding that over the past five or six days the situation has worsened to the maximum.
In its turn Deputy of the People's Council of the DPR Miroslav Rudenko specified that a full-scale war in Donbass could resume as early as this month. He said: “I am not a military strategist, so it is difficult to give an accurate forecast, but judging by the escalation of the situation and the growing aggressive rhetoric from Ukraine, it can be assumed that the start of a full-scale war is planned for August-September, when weather conditions allow a massive offensive to be launched. I really hope that this will not happen after all, and that statements, including those made by Denis Pushilin, reveal and warn Kyiv’s plans. But if this happens, the DPR and LPR will have enough strength and capabilities to protect themselves.”
Such statements, especially from Pushilin, can be regarded as “the last Chinese warning” to Kyiv, I’m sure ex-representative of the DPR Foreign Ministry in Moscow Daria Mitina. - Because he and only he is authorized to make official communications on behalf of the republic in the international arena and officially represents the republic in the Minsk process. Taking into account the fact that he always coordinates his statements with Moscow, draw your own conclusions.
“SP”: - The situation remains tense, at any moment it can flare up and develop into full-fledged military clashes. When and under what conditions can this moment come?
The situation is constantly heating up, but there are boundaries beyond which it turns into a different quality. The security of Donetsk is critical.
“SP”: - Isn’t it still clear that Kyiv is not going to implement either the first three or any individual point of the Minsk agreements? Or is there still hope that the West will force it?
My point of view is that it will not be forced. If hostilities resume, all agreements will be nullified.
“SP”: - How ready is the republic today for the resumption of war? Has it become stronger over the past year and a half since the signing of Minsk-2?
The Republic and its army, which has become professional over the past year and a half, are in constant readiness.
Pushilin’s words, according to political scientist Eduard Popov, should be understood this way: the DPR warns the world community that Kyiv is preparing an invasion and leaves no chance for the republic to live a peaceful life.
The threat of invasion has been discussed in recent weeks in Russia at the highest political levels, including President Putin. DPR leaders periodically voiced similar forecasts. The concentration of manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the contact line, and other military preparations of Ukraine do not leave any other opinion.
“SP”: - Do you agree that Kyiv has finally made it clear that it will not fulfill its obligations? What played a decisive role? Refusal to approve the Russian ambassador? Could this have pushed Moscow to the idea that there was nothing more to talk about with Kiev?
Kyiv is now openly and brazenly violating the Minsk agreements. But until the last moment, even when he starts the offensive, he will convince the world community and his own citizens that it was the Donbass republics and, of course, Russia who violated Minsk.
I have repeatedly stated that Kyiv’s tactics are to provoke the enemy by all means to be the first to open fire. For Donbass - daily and increasingly intense shelling. For Russia - refusal to accept the ambassador.
Back in the spring of 14, I predicted that Kyiv could shell the border territories of Russia in order to cause return fire and the “occupation” of part of Ukraine. Perhaps these plans will be implemented now.
I would like to believe that Moscow has finally appreciated the impossibility of pursuing a policy of appeasement of Ukraine. It seems to me that the candidacy of Ambassador Babich speaks about this. I got the impression that Moscow calculated Kyiv’s reaction and included this forecast in its plans.
“SP”: - How will the West behave in the event of a resumption of hostilities? The US has elections on the horizon, is it time for them now? The EU also, in general, does not have the most favorable situation to solve the problems of some Ukraine...
The topic of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States is undoubtedly one of the most important factors in the events in Ukraine. I am not an Americanist, it’s difficult for me to talk about this. But let me remind you: the invasion of South Ossetia by the Georgian military also took place during the Olympics and in the year of the US presidential elections.
“SP”: - Representatives of the people’s republics handed over to the UN representative the signatures of Donbass residents on an appeal about non-compliance with the Minsk agreements by Kiev. What are they hoping for?
Collecting signatures on crimes against humanity is a necessary and useful diplomatic and propaganda step. Another thing is that something similar - and much more - should have been done two years ago. The purpose of the action is propaganda: to show the West the true face of Ukraine. First of all - to the alternative West. Society and political anti-mainstream.
However, the boundaries of the latter are constantly blurring and becoming wider. It is also important that in the information war the winner is the one who first occupies this or that niche. Without this step, Ukraine would have proposed something similar.
“SP”: - Both sides did not get what they wanted from the truce. Who benefits now from resuming the war?
Both sides are in serious condition. Donbass - because its territory is constantly shelled by Ukraine. In Ukraine, many insoluble political, financial, economic and other problems have accumulated in a tight knot. The Ukrainian regime is approaching the edge of the abyss (a new “Maidan” or a military coup) and the only way out is to redirect aggression towards an external enemy.
Who took better advantage of the truce? Hard to tell. Both sides have increased their military capabilities. But in Ukraine, the social split is perhaps stronger. Despite all the critical attitudes towards the order in the LDPR, the public mood in Donbass seems to me to be more monolithic and clearly determined to win.
"SP": - Is there still an opportunity to prevent war?
There is a chance to prevent a major war (and there will be a war of such destructive power as did not happen in the summer of 2014), but every day the possibilities are decreasing. Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a telephone conversation with the leaders of the United States, France and Germany precisely in order to prevent this highly probable and almost inevitable war. But, I’m afraid, his peacekeeping efforts and Russia’s endless compromises did not find understanding in Western capitals. Therefore, I am pessimistic about the prospects for peace in Donbass.
Probably, in the Donbass they hoped that common sense would prevail in Kyiv, and that the OSCE would be able to influence those who are increasingly shelling Donetsk and other cities of the LDPR, he believes political scientist Alexander Dudchak.“But the situation is only getting worse and there is less and less sense in silently observing daily violations and the daily death of civilians. Looks like my patience is full...
“SP”: - How do you think the military scenario could develop??
Still, it seems to me that, despite the increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we can hardly expect a full-scale war. Indeed, in this case there will be new “cauldrons” and the death of a huge number of people in the name of the crazy ideas of politicians.
Kyiv cannot voluntarily abandon its policy towards Donbass. And if the United States does not exert serious pressure on Kyiv, the conflict could drag on for a very long time. There are enough reserves from Soviet times for this.
Nobody in Kyiv seriously expects to win. But at the same time, they are confident that there will be no attack on Kyiv from Donbass. A comfortable war for Ukrainian oligarchs.
And it's all in the details. The intensification of shelling can be different - more artillery calibers, more shots, more casualties. This time it can be stated that the war in Donbass is losing its borders - they are striking more often and further... Artillery covered Ukrainian villages in the direction of Mariupol, which had not been hit by shells for a year and a half. The boundaries of the war in Donbass are very arbitrary, but most often they are maintained. The whole of Donetsk and the whole of Mariupol are in the affected area of conventional field artillery such as 122 mm howitzers, but you will not see craters in the central Donetsk Lenin Square or in the area of the drama theater in Mariupol. They don't shoot here.
Also, the village of Chermalyk has not been shelled since the beginning of the war, although it is located only seven kilometers from the contact line. But on Wednesday Andreevka and Chermalyk were covered. In the latter, new agricultural equipment of the holding owned by Rinat Akhmetov burned down; in Andreevka, houses were simply damaged. Both villages had rear military installations. There is a repair base in Chermalyk, where two soldiers were wounded and a volunteer was killed. The DPR, in turn, reported that Ukrainian Armed Forces shells had arrived in the villages of Zaitsevo and Golmovsky, and the villages of Vasilievka, Yakovlevka and Mineralnoye over the past 24 hours. Artillery exchanges are taking place along the entire line of contact around the DPR (around the LPR it is traditionally quieter). On August 18, for example, the new administrator of Gorlovka, Ivan Prikhodko, reported that in his city in the morning 80 transformer substations, two high-voltage lines were de-energized, and the premises of the mine named after. Rumyantseva.
The spread of war is a new and dangerous trend in Donbass. Usually this means a deep impasse in negotiations and anticipation of an outbreak of heated fighting. In Donetsk, they are expected simply demonstratively - bomb shelters in which water reserves are being created are being checked, officials are warned about the need to have a three-day supply of food at home, the military have had their holidays canceled. War is expected “any day now” since the first reports of shootings on the Crimean border.
And in Toretsk (renamed Dzerzhinsk), controlled by Ukraine, the mayor of the city, Vladimir Sleptsov, was arrested the day before. For the Donetsk region, this news is akin to an alarm bell. Sleptsov has been mayor of the city of Dzerzhinsk for many years, since the late nineties, and in 2014 he maneuvered with the situation, like many city mayors elected from the Party of Regions. On April 15, 2014, he held a session of the city council, where, in the presence of representatives of the structures of the newly created DPR, it was decided to hold a referendum in the city on May 11. Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the city, and Sleptsov was successfully re-elected in 2015 in the Ukrainian Dzerzhinsk. A video of that session has been freely available on the Internet all these years. Now the regional prosecutor Evgeniy Bondarenko came to him to personally present him with charges of committing a crime, the SBU conducted a search, and yesterday the court arrested the mayor for 60 days under the article on “participation in a terrorist group.” To make it clear, all such “separatist” articles in 2014 were cleared by Ukrainian legislators of any possibility of leaving the pre-trial detention center during the investigation: no bail, no house arrest, no bail, no recognizance not to leave - nothing is allowed.
There are about a dozen mayors like Sleptsov in the Donetsk region. And this arrest promises a cleanup of the region that is a couple of years late. Previously, they tried to cooperate with “constructive local forces,” but now the situation has changed, and there is clearly a smell of war in the air.
12:31 — REGNUM The end of July and the first days of August turned out to be difficult for the residents of Donbass, bringing new shocks and new tests of strength. The situation in the region has worsened even more; the activity of shelling and provocations by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has noticeably increased. In just one day on July 31, the Ukrainian side fired at the territory of the DPR 17 times. The settlements of Zaitsevo, Yasinovataya, Spartak, Staromikhailovka, Kominternovo, Sakhanka, the vicinity of the Donetsk airport and the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk came under artillery, tank (!), and mortar fire. Closer to the night from August 31st to August 1st, local battles using small arms and mortars of various calibers broke out along the entire front line. The case ended with new destruction, new blood and, unfortunately, new casualties.
At this very moment, P. Poroshenko was in a belligerent mood. He talked a lot and willingly about the defense of the Motherland, congratulated and awarded fighters of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then paratroopers, praised the power of the Ukrainian army, without tiring of talking about the future liberation of Ukraine from “foreign invaders.” In the direction of Russia, he not only was not too lazy to look sternly and wag his finger several times, but also to throw out verbal quips at the Russians who were not dear to his heart. Even such a completely peaceful holiday as the Day of the Baptism of Rus' was used by him as an excuse to spray saliva towards his “adversary enemies.” At this point, I must admit, the president gave himself free rein and spoke out properly. And about “Golden-domed Kyiv”, and about the “invasion of foreigners”, and how, by the will of God, they “will disappear like smoke disappears.”
Particular attention, perhaps, in a series of aggressive outpourings was attracted by the passage in which P. Poroshenko stated that he, they say, “never took palliative forms” to determine what was happening in the Donbass, starting in April 2014. Developing the idea and pretending to have forgotten that it was he who called the conflict in the east so “palliative” that it couldn’t be more “palliative” - “anti-terrorist operation” - the president said that it was not “abstract” armed conflict”, not “armed confrontation”, but “invasion of foreigners”. For some reason, the previous version of qualifying what was happening no longer suited Peter the “peacemaker.” Now he is proposing a new definition, which, in his opinion, is no longer “palliative,” let alone “from a non-Ukrainian voice.” Is this metamorphosis accidental? Is this just a game of words, or will words be followed by deeds designed to confirm the validity of Bankova’s new interpretation of events?
The new definition proposed by P. Poroshenko corresponds just as little to the actual state of affairs as the previous one. Under the banner of the “anti-terrorist operation”, the Ukrainian army under his command with the active support of volunteer battalions, of course, did not fight against terrorism. It’s as easy as shelling pears to understand; you just need to turn off the propaganda hiss of the Kyiv information snakes and serpents and compare the obvious facts and events. Residents of Donbass have never been “separatists,” much less “terrorists.” Real, not imaginary, terrorists from ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (banned in Russia) are shelling residential areas of Syrian Aleppo with heavy weapons, deliberately killing civilians. In Donbass, the Ukrainian army is doing the same against the residents of the DPR-LPR. So who is the terrorist in this case? Terrorism, which differs from radical Islamic terrorism only in that it is not classified as such by the international community, that it is not overt, secret, is carried out not by militias, but by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And this terrorism is also state-owned. Living and fighting for their rights and freedom on their own land, the residents of Donbass, of course, cannot be “foreigners”. So it’s not they who are committing the “invasion”, the invasion – without any quotes – is being carried out on them.“Strangers” in the east of the country are those who were sent there by P. Poroshenko, who came to the Donetsk steppe with weapons in their hands.
The Kyiv public, who had been preoccupied for several weeks with the threat of either a military coup or martial law, the verbal balancing act of the head of state aroused serious concerns. Until recently it was acceptedconsider that P. Poroshenko belongs to the Kyiv “peace party”. That he does not share the idea of unleashing a full-fledged war in the east, he does his best to restrain the “hawks” in his immediate and distant surroundings, and he needs skirmishes and shelling in the “ATO” zone in order, citing them, to delay the implementation of the “Minsk agreements.” Now it may seem that some other goals and interests are hidden behind the escalation of tension and intensification of hostilities in the Donbass. Possibly related to the idea of introducing martial law in Ukraine or only in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions this fall.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that a further escalation of the game on the eastern “front” up to full-fledged military clashes is currently in the interests of Kyiv. It is precisely this circumstance that seems to explain both the toughening of P. Poroshenko’s bellicose-victorious rhetoric and the introduction of themes of a military coup and martial law into the information space. Perhaps the main reason for this state of affairs lies on the surface: a war, even if fleeting and by no means victorious, would make it possible to neutralize the increasingly increasing Western pressure on Kyiv in order to force it to implement Minsk-2. The outbreak of hostilities in Donbass is beneficial to P. Poroshenko for at least two more reasons. Firstly, to increase excess profits from business during the war. Secondly, in the hope that the West will naturally place the blame for the aggravation of the situation on Russia, and this will serve as a reason for extending sanctions against Moscow. They say, here, at the end of the year, you are going to consider the issue of lifting sanctions against V. Putin, and he’s doing what he’s doing, he’s started a real war, how can we cancel it, here we need to tighten it up, and give us weapons and money so that we you were protected from them.
It is also important that the war would allow for some time to divert Western attention from corruption in Ukraine, which the United States and the EU asked P. Poroshenko to curb and which he instead led. While official Kyiv and Pyotr Alekseevich himself never tire of repeating at every corner that the main enemy for Ukraine and for the entire “civilized world” is Russia, in the West every day a different point of view is becoming more and more noticeable. “Perhaps Russia is not the most serious enemy Ukraine faces,” Foreign Policy journalists allowed themselves to suggest. “Given the corruption that plagues business and government at all levels, the country’s greatest enemy may be its own leaders.” In such a situation, it is clear that for P. Poroshenko, as one of “her own leaders,” it is better, easier, more profitable, more convenient to fight in Donbass than to resist corruption, in other words, to himself and his immediate circle.