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Will the third world war start from Korea? The third world war is already underway: a military expert explained the words of the DPRK about the victory over the usa world war 3 korea

As reported by the Associated Press, the US presidential administration refuses to launch a massive strike against North Korea and destroy the Kim Jong-un regime - choosing a "maximum pressure policy" along with China, Japan and Russia.

According to journalists, Donald Trump will not give an order to wipe the country of Juche from the face of the earth even if Kim Jong-un conducts another nuclear or missile test - although diplomats have previously said that detonating a nuclear charge or launching a North Korean missile would cause an instant strike on military and government facilities in North Korea. Korea.

Agency sources in the White House said that "Trump's advisers considered a variety of options for influencing the DPRK, including military intervention and the overthrow of the country's leadership." However, after weighing the risks and consequences, Trump decided for the time being "to stick to the policies promoted by the previous White House administration."

At the same time, a military strike on the DPRK is not ruled out, but for the time being it is being postponed - it was not in vain that Trump “driven” an entire aircraft carrier strike formation to North Korea, each day of which costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

Trump is "particularly counting on the support of China and Russia" - for example, that Moscow and Beijing at the UN will support the most severe sanctions against the DPRK, sources told the AP.

At the same time, world experts say they expect missile tests in the DPRK either on April 15 or April 25.

In turn, Kim Jong-un warned of readiness to respond with a nuclear strike on South Korea, an aircraft carrier group, Japan and the United States in the event of an attack from America. According to Japan's Kyodo news agency, Vice Marshal of the Korean People's Army, member of the National Defense Council Choi Ryong-hye said, "If America provokes, we will immediately respond with a devastating attack, a total war with a total war, and a nuclear war with a nuclear strike." .

Also, speaking to the participants of the parade in honor of the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the military promised - "just nuclear weapons will crush the American."

However, the parade was not only filled with threats and screams of tens of thousands of North Koreans seeing their "Great Leader". So Reuters reported, and the world media showed the parade of real ballistic missiles for submarines - which Kim Jong-un did not have before.

Such missiles, if they do not fall apart at launch and do not fly away into the "white light as a pretty penny", can reach the territory of the United States or Russia, carrying nuclear warheads. However, as military experts note, it is unlikely that the DPRK will be able to produce at least 20-50 such missiles - a similar number is easily "beaten off" by Moscow's anti-aircraft defense systems.

In addition, Russian Ambassador to the DPRK Alexander Matsegora said in an interview with Rossiya-24 that despite total control over the media, the inhabitants of the DPRK "know that the US Navy aircraft carrier Vinson is coming here with its escort ships. They know that what Trump, Tillerson are saying. Also, the authorities in Pyongyang know about the strike on Syria and that this strike is a kind of allusion to the DPRK."

Prior to this, the Russian ambassador honestly admitted that "the probability of testing missiles by North Korea in the upcoming holidays is quite high" and no one can prevent this - "the personal will of Kim Jong-un" is at work here. This statement came immediately after the North Korean General Staff threatened immediate preemptive strikes on US bases in Japan and South Korea in the event of "a hint of aggression after a [nuclear] test."

It should be noted that oriental experts recently discussed with KP journalists options for the development of events - from the calmest to the most terrible.

“The current state of affairs suits everyone. After decades of economic prosperity, the South Koreans are not ready for an all-out war, fearing the difficulties associated with it. And Trump’s demonstrative actions are aimed primarily at “bringing China into submission” and weakening the “democratic opposition” inside America itself. Yes and we have been hearing verbal threats from Pyongyang for more than a year. So, I think everyone will again make harsh statements - and remain on their own," suggested Irina Lantsova, associate professor of St. Petersburg State University, Korean scholar, "soft version."

“Under the influence of China, the DPRK has already “curtailed” its nuclear program more than once, but after some time it resumed it again, putting the “senior comrades” in an awkward position. However, the current Beijing clearly wants to switch to a more active foreign policy, and who knows what Washington promised in return - maybe "turn a blind eye" to the annexation of Taiwan. In any case, advancing to the Sino-Korean border, from where Pyongyang never expected an attack, a dozen divisions at once will become a much more effective argument than all previous verbal assurances, " - experts say about the option "China will force Kim to abandon the nuclear fist."

The option that the United States will deliver a limited strike is considered by military expert Andrei Sarven. "It is possible to destroy the nuclear missile potential of Pyongyang by hitting only a dozen objects. But this is not enough, because it is necessary to exclude a retaliatory strike on South Korean territory. Solving such a task requires the destruction of many hundreds of well-fortified objects and thousands of heavy weapons. strike". Here we need large-scale missile and bomb attacks, although I think the United States will be able to do without a ground operation: modern warfare allows this," he argues.

"There is no point in discussing the most pessimistic scenario - even Chinese leader Mao Tse Tung half a century ago predicted the death of one hundred million people in the event of a nuclear war in the region," experts say about the option "Kim and Trump will start World War III."

However, even in this case, there is no direct threat to Russia. Firstly, the air defense forces located in the Far East will destroy any single missiles of Kim Jong-un - if he decides to hit them "all over the world." Secondly, the distance between the Far East and the DPRK is still very far.

However, there are indirect threats - for example, Konstantin Asmolov, a specialist at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the media that in the event of a US strike on Kim's nuclear facilities, "the radioactive cloud will reach Vladivostok in two hours." He also suggested that in the event of a full-fledged war, hungry refugees from North Korea would pour into Russia.

In turn, Leonid Bolshov, director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Atomic Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that Russian scientists are considering all options, including the consequences of a conventional and nuclear war on the peninsula. "We are analyzing the situation, calculating all possible risks, of course, it is far from our territory, but there are certain concerns," he said.

“If we talk about radioactive fallout, then in the Far East the“ wind rose ”is as follows: in spring the wind blows from China and the Gobi desert towards the Pacific Ocean. If we imagine even the most fantastic scenario, then the cloud will not go towards our country. As a result - radioactive fallout may fall in the Pacific Ocean," the expert concluded.

Air China, the only Chinese airline with flights to North Korea, has suspended flights to Pyongyang after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said "the conflict over North Korea will escalate at any moment." The Marine service also shows how hundreds of ships from all over the world have moved away from the territory of North Korea - the moment when a nuclear war on the peninsula will be ruled out.

In turn, employees of the Far Eastern Regional Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said on the air of the radio station "Moscow Speaks" - they are ready for emergencies.

"As for the territory of the Russian Federation, the units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations are always ready to respond to possible emergencies. As for directly measuring all radiation backgrounds, we have an authorized service for this represented by the services of Roshydromet, that is, a network of branches that take measurements, including including the background radiation, the movement of air masses," the rescuers said.

And finally.

According to experts, "Internet users have broken the record for queries in search engines about the third world war." According to them, since 2004, the Internet will reach the maximum of such requests. Why, since 2004 - if a month ago the query "whether there will be a third world war" and similar questions had a "rating" of only 16 points, now it has risen to a maximum value of 100 points.

Moreover, “five minutes to a war” flares up right at the borders of Russia. The army of the DPRK, by the way, is even larger in number than the Russian one. And the Russian Federation, and the USA, and China, and Japan can be drawn into the conflict.

BECAUSE OF WHAT CHEESE-BOR

Few people already know: the South Korean corvette Cheonan recently mysteriously died in the Yellow Sea. They say from a torpedo. The US immediately launched a joint submarine interception exercise with South Korean partners, and four North Korean boats mysteriously disappeared. All at once (two seem to have already been found). Pyongyang and Seoul have put their armies on full alert, and battle cries are being heard on both sides of the border. The restrained Japanese also broke through: we must finally teach the fans of Juche a lesson - how much can you scare us with nuclear weapons? The voice of mighty China is not loud, but clear: decide everything by political methods - Pyongyang is our neighbor and almost a younger brother. Russia, as usual, preoccupied with the "increasing tension", very timely started large-scale exercises "Vostok-2010" in the smell of gunpowder in the region. And rightly so: don't forget about it. Here is such a gloomy storyline. So have all the fuses been removed? We tried to make our prediction - how real is the war between the two Koreas and is it possible to draw the United States, Russia and China into it?

GRITTING TEETH NEIGHBORS

The confrontation between the two Koreas - North and South - has a long history. Legally, they are still warring countries: the Korean War in 1953 ended only with a ceasefire agreement. Then the South Korean army was defeated in the very first battles, and by September 1950, the northerners occupied more than 90% of the country's territory. Relations between North and South Korea are constantly sparking without a peace treaty. The “small” war of intelligence and special forces on the border along the 38th parallel can at any moment develop into a big war. Military experts have long ranked the Korean Peninsula among the world's most unstable regions. Now let's take a look at what military power the conflicting parties have.

RELATION OF FORCES

North Korea

The armed forces - about 1.5 million fanatical fighters (and there is also a trained reserve - 4.7 million people). In the ground forces: more than 50 tactical missiles, 3200 tanks, 2440 armored personnel carriers, 12.7 thousand artillery pieces, more than 1.1 thousand multiple launch rocket systems, about 2 thousand anti-tank installations, 1820 anti-aircraft anti-aircraft missile systems.

Air Force and Air Defense: 1158 aircraft and helicopters, 11 thousand anti-aircraft guns. An interesting detail: 200 pilots are personally subordinate to Kim Jong Il and are ready to perform tasks of particular importance. These are suicide bombers ... The naval forces of the DPRK: 3 missile ships, 2 destroyers, 18 anti-submarine ships. Combat boats: 40 missile, 134 torpedo and 108 artillery. About 100 submarines. Nuclear missile potential: tactical missiles with a range of 55 - 70 km, as well as operational-tactical missiles - 300 km, "Nodon-1" - 550 - 600 km and "Tephodon" - 1500 km. The number of missiles can reach: "Nodon" - 200 and "Scud" - 500. Intercontinental "Tephodon-2" with a range of up to 7000 km are being developed.

South Korea

Armed forces - 672 thousand people. They are trained by US instructors and armed mostly with US weapons. In the ground forces: 2130 tanks, 2490 armored personnel carriers, 4400 guns, 143 combat helicopters. The Air Force is armed with 460 combat aircraft and helicopters, including 195 F-5 and 60 F-16 fighters. The Navy has 9 submarines and 40 surface ships, not counting patrol boats and landing craft. In addition, 2 divisions of the Marine Corps (25 thousand people). Recently, South Korea has begun to buy weapons from Russia (80 T-80 tanks).

WHO WILL TAKE?

As you can see, North Korea has a 2-3-fold superiority in this area. And if we also take into account nuclear weapons, then they are complete. But on the side of South Korea are the Americans, who compensate for this "deficiency" with their military might. Therefore, about the forces that the United States has in this region. 37,000 people are stationed at bases in Korea. with stockpiles of weapons and property. And not far away - in Japan - the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Division (Okinawa) is also deployed.

All in all, 47,000 American military personnel are concentrated at bases in Japan. Plus, the base of the US 7th Fleet is located in Yokosuka. He is able to immediately form and send two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Korean coast. And this is 200 aircraft, 4 - 6 missile cruisers and up to 10 missile destroyers. And another dozen multi-purpose submarines with Tomahawks. And about 8 missile submarines of the Ohio type can not be mentioned: they are constantly patrolling there.

In addition, we should not forget about Japan itself, which has long been "grinding its teeth" at its dangerous nuclear missile neighbor...

UNPREDICTABLE SCENARIO

Let's try to "calculate" the possible development of events. Until the results of the work of the international commission investigating the causes of the death of the South Korean corvette are not approved, Washington and Seoul have no reason to give a “strong response”. But maneuvering a joint naval force off the North Korean coast could provoke Kim Jong Il's fanatical admirals. And a torpedo or a rocket will go in the direction of the "impudent imperialists". This is where it will start. The Americans and their allies will melt the old North Korean "troughs". But the allies will also get it: the North Koreans know how to fight both on the water and under the water. Their suicide submarines will not go to the bottom without prey. The war will spread to land. American "tomahawks", having flown from a safe distance, will smash the strategic (including nuclear) facilities of North Korea, and paralyze the country's administration. And then the South Korean army will rush into battle: the chance to unite the two Koreas should not be missed. Naval aviation will clear the way for her. And the 3rd US Marine Division will clean up the already captured territory. Further, you can fantasize as much as you like, but still the forceful scenario of the development of events seems to us the least probable. Here, in our opinion, there are several very important reasons. Here they are:

5 REASONS "AGAINST"

1. The United States already has two wars hanging on its feet - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

2. The DPRK army is well trained and will shed a lot of someone else's blood. It is completely impossible to destroy it. The rest of the broken parts will go to the mountains. A long guerrilla war will begin with heavy casualties for the Americans and their allies. Congress will not forgive Obama for this.

3. The government of South Korea, which has long dreamed of a peaceful unification with Pyongyang, is unlikely to agree to "fraternization through war."

4. The Chinese factor: Beijing is unlikely to remain indifferent if the United States unleashes military operations against the DPRK (it only lacked millions of hungry refugees from a neighboring country!).

5. The Russian factor: Moscow, like Beijing, advocates a peaceful settlement of the conflict as a united front. This tandem, most likely, will cool the hot heads of American hawks, who are suffering by force "to end the North Korean regime once and for all."

WHAT IS Pyongyang?

Pyongyang's position is unpredictable. Kim Jong Il seems to have decided to balance on the brink of conflict with his sworn enemies. They are trying to corner him. But he is belligerent. After all, the DPRK tested nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the United States. Therefore, it was stated that isolation (and even more so an economic blockade as a method of punishment) would force North Korea to deliver powerful blows to key targets of the “main enemy” and its supporters. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and South Korea signed an agreement on the nuclear protection of southerners from their northern neighbor. Obama added that the United States is not going to tolerate blackmail anymore: "We will make it clear to North Korea that it will not gain respect and ensure its security through threats and illegal weapons." They also want to involve Russia in the creation of an “anti-North Korean front”. But she has her own game on this flank. She doesn't want to quarrel with her neighbor, who, however, dangerously "dabbles" in nuclear weapons. Moscow languidly agrees with Washington, but also nods its head in the direction of Beijing in agreement. How long she will be able to sit on two chairs at once, time will tell. It looks like she is ready to leave the "Great Leader" Kim Jong Il to his own fate...

SO WHAT IS THE RESULT?

Most likely, everything will follow the long-familiar, traditional circle: having exchanged formidable statements and rattling weapons in front of each other, the conflicting parties will find suitable mediators and, gritting their teeth, once again sit down at the negotiating table. Moreover, Pyongyang is not at all up to the war now - it is necessary to save the people from starvation. And then the United States and South Korea will begin to develop another secret plan to overthrow Kim Jong Il not with missiles, but with the hands of the long-cherished and generously paid opposition.

What if there is still a war? Then it will be a war not only with North Korea, but also with China ... Or maybe (pah-pah!), And a world war ...

According to all forecasts, it seems that Vanga was right and the Third World War will soon begin in 2017. The United States will attack the DPRK and is going to launch a large number of cruise missiles from the aircraft carrier CARL WINSON in response, the DPRK is going to strike with nuclear missiles.

On the eve of the 105th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the North Korean state, Kim Il Sung, which is celebrated on April 15, the United States announced its readiness to launch a preventive strike against the DPRK. This was reported by the NBC channel. The Pentagon did not refute the readiness to attack. "Commanders are always looking at the full range of options in a contingency," Defense Department spokeswoman Dana White said.

To fulfill the plan, Washington pulled the necessary forces into the region. The strike group led by the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson" approached at a distance sufficient to launch cruise missiles. It also includes a guided missile cruiser, two destroyers and several submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles, which were recently used in the attack on Syria. It is also possible to use B-52 strategic bombers stationed on the island of Guam in the Western Pacific.

Aircraft carrier Carl Vinson

Reasons for starting a war?

In addition, the elite Seal Team Six is already on the Korean Peninsula, known for the fact that it was its fighters who destroyed Osama bin Laden in their time. Earlier, experts from the National Security Council at the White House recommended to Trump the physical elimination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a means of combating the DPRK's nuclear program. According to NBC, the alleged attack on the DPRK, in addition to the missile strike, may include "ground operations."

It is the nuclear program of North Korea that is named as the reason for the possible US aggression. North Korea is closer than ever to being able to use nuclear weapons against the United States, CIA Director Michael Pompeo said yesterday. Washington assumes that Pyongyang will conduct its sixth nuclear test on April 15. Moreover, the question of the attack, it seems, has already been resolved. The United States is preparing to strike if only "evidence of preparations for a new nuclear test" is received.

How is North Korea reacting?

In response to US preparations, Pyongyang announced that it was ready for war. “If the US comes up with reckless military maneuvers, it will face a preemptive strike from North Korea. We have a powerful nuclear deterrent,” said DPRK Deputy Foreign Minister Han Song Ryul. At the same time, the DPRK reserved the right to conduct a test "when the leadership considers it necessary." "Whatever comes from American politicians, if their words are intended to overthrow the system and the government of the DPRK, we categorically reject them," the diplomat concluded.

Who else will participate in the war?

Earlier, Trump offered China a joint solution to the North Korean problem. However, he was ready to do it without Beijing. Today, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged South Korea, the United States and North Korea not to bring the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the point of no return. As Alexander Lomanov, a researcher at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told SP, China is unlikely to leave North Korea, with which it is connected by an alliance treaty, in trouble. Video footage of the Chinese military moving towards the border with North Korea has already appeared on social networks.

How is Russia reacting?

Meanwhile, Moscow also called for restraint. Russia "continues to be a supporter of politico-diplomatic methods of resolving all crises," said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Military expert Vasily Kashin is sure that in the event of an American attack, the military response of the DPRK will cause enormous damage to neighboring countries.

The North Koreans can do little against a US attack force, but they are absolutely guaranteed to deliver a massive blow to South Korea and a fairly substantial blow to Japan. Seoul and its agglomeration, where 25 million people live - half of the population of South Korea, is located close to the border with the DPRK. In fact, in the zone of action of North Korean artillery. In addition, South Korea is saturated with nuclear energy, the chemical industry, and all this is located in the zone of action of North Korea's numerous short-range missiles. That is, even using conventional weapons, you can cause huge damage. Especially if you use nuclear.

There is no way to stop these attacks. It will also not be possible to quickly deprive North Korea of the ability to wage war, since they have been preparing for this for 50 years. They have a large system of underground structures, a significant part of the industry and reserves are hidden underground. There is a factor of mountainous terrain. This is a difficult opponent.

Video: US threatens to start another war on the Korean Peninsula

"SP": - Sources say that the US can use up to 2.5 thousand cruise missiles. Not so many - there were 60 of them in Shayrat, and the damage was almost zero ...

Cruise missiles are a specific type of weapon. It makes sense to use them only against a certain class of targets. They cannot effectively hit fortified buildings, are useless against underground structures, etc. Even such a huge force will not allow you to achieve a quick result.

In addition, there is an almost unsolvable problem of combating mobile missile systems. Based on the experience of all previous wars, it is impossible to catch these complexes with short-range and medium-range missiles. And such complexes are what the North Koreans emphasized. For example, missiles of the Nodon family have a range of 1.3-1.5 thousand kilometers. This allows you to guaranteed to hit all of South Korea and part of Japan. There are also analogues of the Soviet missiles Elbrus, Tochki-U, and so on. Pyongyang has hundreds of such missiles and it is unrealistic to intercept them. There will be significant civilian casualties, environmental disasters, etc.

Korean scholar Konstantin Asmolov, an employee of the Center for Korean Studies of the IFES RAS, draws attention to the fact that the DPRK is not at all eager to fight the United States.

The northerners said this morning that they would conduct nuclear tests, but only when there was a command from the leadership. That is, they did not say that "we will blow it up now", but they did not say that "we will not blow it up now". This is an attempt at maneuver. But where is the guarantee that someone in South Korea will not stage a provocation? Recall that after information about the chemical attack in Idlib, Trump said that he already knew who was to blame. Is it difficult to make a staged video where people in the form of the North Korean army “impale a political dissident”?

"SP": - But for South Korea, such a conflict will be apocalyptic?

There are enough conservatives and sectarians in the south who dream that the North Korean regime will be destroyed, but that the US will do everything for them. But besides them, there are pragmatists who understand that the Americans will watch this war on TV, and the DPRK will shoot back at Seoul.

Another important point is that South Korea is an economic rival of the United States. And a lot of the things that Trump said about China apply to the South in a limited way. Therefore, if in a critical situation you have to choose, then the choice may not be in favor of South Korea. Although it is also not worth absolutizing the cynicism of the Americans.

"SP": - What factors may affect Trump's decision to attack?

It must be understood that the north of Korea is not a "colossus with feet of clay." The DPRK has enough military power and this is definitely not the second Iraq. But for the US, this may not be obvious. Washington depends, for example, on South Korean propaganda, which has long predicted the collapse of the north. In this situation, the likelihood of abrupt actions by the United States increases. A situation is possible when Trump will have to answer for his words and make decisions due to domestic political considerations.

Trump now has problems with expert support. Since all intellectuals considered Trump a freak and a marginal, few of the adequate people went to him as advisers from adequate people. As a result, the people who advise Trump on the Korean region are rather strange. In addition, there is still a mess with appointments, which increases the risk of voluntarism and situational response.

According to RISS researcher Konstantin Blokhin, abrupt steps in the international arena are politically beneficial for Trump.

Prior to the attack on Syria, Trump's rating was very low - 36%. This is a critical bar. For example, Nixon had 27% before his resignation. Trump had to think about how to dramatically increase public support. After the strike on Syria, the rating of the American president immediately increased by 8 points. Trump was immediately supported by all of his fiercest critics: McCain, Rubio, Lindsey Graham, William Crystal, etc. The press wrote that Trump had finally realized himself as president. He is reminiscent of the new Reagan, and this helps him a lot in the domestic political situation.

"SP": - Can Trump order a missile attack on the DPRK without asking the consent of Congress?

If we remember how the invasion of Iraq went in 2003, no one asked anyone there. There were no agreements at all. Another thing is how Trump's order regarding the DPRK can then be interpreted by his ill-wishers. In fact, the change of political regimes in the world since the 1990s has been the cornerstone of American politics. This is a favorite neocon theme. Now Trump has also gone down this path.

Vanga said that the Ancient Teaching would come to the world, and this would be the beginning of the end. It becomes clear that it is not worth waiting for a conventional war, today the scope of world weapons has reached such a level that the Third World War will be fast and therefore the most terrible and destructive. A chemical weapon is not a tank, it is impossible to stop the consequences of such an attack. After all, the explosion of a chemical bomb itself is only the beginning, because after the fire itself, all the dirt that gets into the air and water after the attack will go its own way and there will be no barriers to it.

Moreover, "without five minutes of war" flares up right at the borders of Russia. The army of the DPRK, by the way, is even larger in number than the Russian one. And the Russian Federation, and the USA, and China, and Japan can be drawn into the conflict.

BECAUSE OF WHAT CHEESE-BOR

GRITTING TEETH NEIGHBORS

RELATION OF FORCES

North Korea

Air Force and Air Defense: 1158 aircraft and helicopters, 11 thousand anti-aircraft guns. An interesting detail: 200 pilots are personally subordinate to Kim Jong Il and are ready to perform tasks of particular importance. These are suicide bombers... North Korean naval forces: 3 missile ships, 2 destroyers, 18 anti-submarine ships. Combat boats: 40 missile, 134 torpedo and 108 artillery. About 100 submarines. Nuclear missile potential: tactical missiles with a range of 55 - 70 km, as well as operational-tactical missiles - 300 km, "Nodon-1" - 550 - 600 km and "Tephodon" - 1500 km. The number of missiles can reach: "Nodon" - 200 and "Scud" - 500. Intercontinental "Tephodon-2" with a range of up to 7000 km are being developed.

South Korea

WHO WILL TAKE?

As you can see, North Korea has a 2-3-fold superiority in this area. And if we also take into account nuclear weapons, then they are complete. But on the side of South Korea are the Americans, who compensate for this "deficiency" with their military might. Therefore, about the forces that the United States has in this region. 37,000 people are stationed at bases in Korea. with stockpiles of weapons and property. And not far - in Japan - the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Division (Okinawa) is also stationed.

All in all, 47,000 American military personnel are concentrated at bases in Japan. Plus, the base of the US 7th Fleet is located in Yokosuka. He is able to immediately form and send two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Korean coast. And this is 200 aircraft, 4 - 6 missile cruisers and up to 10 missile destroyers. And another dozen multi-purpose submarines with Tomahawks. And about 8 Ohio-type missile submarines can not be mentioned: they are constantly patrolling there.

In addition, we should not forget about Japan itself, which has long been "sharpening its teeth" against its dangerous nuclear-missile neighbor...

UNPREDICTABLE SCENARIO

5 REASONS "AGAINST"

1. The United States already has two wars hanging on its feet - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

3. The government of South Korea, which has long dreamed of a peaceful unification with Pyongyang, is unlikely to agree to "fraternization through war."

5. Russian factor: Moscow, like Beijing, advocates a peaceful settlement of the conflict with a united front. This tandem, most likely, will cool the hot heads of American hawks, who are suffering by force "to end the North Korean regime once and for all."

WHAT IS Pyongyang?

Pyongyang's position is unpredictable. Kim Jong Il seems to have decided to balance on the brink of conflict with his sworn enemies. They are trying to corner him. But he is belligerent. After all, the DPRK tested nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the United States. Therefore, it was stated that isolation (and even more so an economic blockade as a method of punishment) would force North Korea to deliver powerful blows to key targets of the “main enemy” and its supporters. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and South Korea signed an agreement on the nuclear protection of southerners from their northern neighbor. Obama added that the United States is not going to tolerate blackmail anymore: "We will make it clear to North Korea that it will not gain respect and ensure its security through threats and illegal weapons." They also want to involve Russia in the creation of an “anti-North Korean front”. But she has her own game on this flank. She doesn't want to quarrel with her neighbor, who, however, dangerously "dabbles" in nuclear weapons. Moscow languidly agrees with Washington, but also nods its head in the direction of Beijing in agreement. How long she will be able to sit on two chairs at once, time will tell. She seems ready to leave the "Great Leader" Kim Jong Il to his own fate...

SO WHAT IS THE RESULT?

What if there is still a war? Then it will be a war not only with North Korea, but also with China ... Or maybe (pah-pah!), And a world war ...

The leaders of the United States and North Korea are rapidly raising the stakes in their confrontation, making war all but inevitable. At the same time, China has already announced that it will stand up for the DPRK in the event of an attempt to change the local regime.

In recent days, the situation around North Korea has become so serious that everything else has ceased to matter. The jokes are over. The world is indeed on the verge of the first nuclear war in its history.

I wrote about how recent events developed in several recent reviews. If interesting - . Today, my worst fears about the situation getting out of hand received some more confirmation.

US President Donald Trump tweeted wrote: “The military solution is fully prepared. The weapon is loaded and aimed at the target. In case North Korea acts unwisely. I hope Kim Jong Un chooses otherwise."

This was followed presidential tweet with photographs of American bombers and fighters "ready to take off on a mission tonight." The hint is completely transparent.

Even the US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, announced that diplomatic methods for resolving the conflict had been exhausted. "We have nothing more to talk about with them," - wrote she's on her twitter.

The only senior member of the Trump administration who seems to understand the consequences of a possible conflict is Secretary of Defense James Mattis: “We are well aware of what wars lead to. One word can describe what is happening - catastrophe.

Washington's menacing rhetoric by no means forced Pyongyang to turn on the back. The North Korean state news agency KCNA accused the US of "criminally trying to destroy the Korean people in a nuclear holocaust" and wanting to "test its weapons on the Koreans." "The United States is the author and inspirer of nuclear war, a country fanatically dreaming of it," North Korean ideologists believe. In response, they promised to turn the US mainland "into a theater of nuclear war."

Before that, let me remind you, Pyongyang accused Trump of losing his mind and, like Nikki Haley, came to the conclusion that no dialogue was possible under the circumstances.

It seems that this is indeed the case: as long as the parties call each other "imperialist beasts" and "crazed communist dictatorship", it will not be easy for them to agree on something sensible. Therefore, the whole world is now trying to understand what the alternative could be. In short, very, very bad.

Plans for a war with North Korea have been drawn up at the Pentagon for decades - at least since the days of Bill Clinton. But in the past week, they've all gone out of date. According to American intelligence, Pyongyang has ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. This significantly complicates any military confrontation with the DPRK.

Now hordes of specialists and experts are trying to figure out "what if?". If, in the event of a war, one such missile reaches the target? What if ten? And if all 60, as some Western analysts believe? It will not work to hide all people in shelters: a nuclear missile flies from Pyongyang to San Francisco in only half an hour. There simply won't be time for a complete evacuation.

In ten millionth Seoul, the same rocket will deliver a nuclear charge in just three minutes. According to preliminary estimates, even in the best case, about 150 thousand people will die in the same second, about 300 thousand more will be maimed and injured, and the rest will rush away from the country. The healthcare system (at least) will immediately be overloaded, wild chaos will begin with unpredictable consequences.

A nuclear explosion over Tokyo, for example, would have even more dire consequences - in addition to the victims and destruction in Japan itself, the entire world economy would also suffer a terrible blow. Now nuclear weapons are scary not only with the actual shock and thermal wave, but also with an electromagnetic pulse that will cut down absolutely all electronics in the affected area. And now the world has become very dependent on her.

This development now seems more and more real. North Korea, realizing that such losses are simply unbearable for the world, continues to escalate. Pyongyang has already announced its intention to launch four medium-range ballistic missiles in the area of the US island of Guam. This is a real spit in the face of the President of the United States. He can hardly bear it.

If these missiles (or warheads) are shot down (or destroyed from the air on the launch pads), North Korea's response could be a massive shelling of Seoul with conventional artillery. Or a missile attack on Japan. Or something else, but ten times more significant. According to James Stavridis, a retired US Admiral of the Navy, "such a development would almost certainly set off an upward spiral of violence that would be almost impossible to control."

In fact, after the North Korean response to the destruction of missiles, the US and its allies will have to decide whether to start a full-fledged war or not. To start means to endanger at least Seoul and Tokyo with a nuclear strike. Donald Trump will not be able to ignore this.

Another way out is to deliver massive preventive strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities, concentrations of troops, equipment, and military administrative centers. But there is no guarantee that everything will be destroyed. Even Trump cannot risk a million-plus city - South Korean, Japanese or American. And this is another opportunity for the DPRK.

By rapidly raising the stakes in its confrontation with the US, North Korea is breaking the unity of the Americans and their Far Eastern allies. Neither Japan nor South Korea wants to be under a nuclear attack because the US cannot tolerate Pyongyang having a nuclear missile capable of reaching the White House. Tokyo and Seoul, in a sense, are used to living with a sense of constant threat, and do not want to suffer because of the sudden appearance in Washington. In South Korea, for example, now they are even more afraid of Trump's actions than Kim's actions.

Under these conditions, most likely, both Tokyo and Seoul will ask the United States to reduce the intensity of the confrontation and not respond to North Korean provocations. Whether Trump will listen to them is a separate question. According to The Washington Post, he is not ready to make any concessions to Kim Jong-un, believing that this would establish "false moral equality" between them.

Perhaps, however, something else will be able to stop the hot American president. Today, China has said its weighty word about everything that is happening. Local state media wrote that the PRC would "maintain neutrality" if North Korean missiles actually flew towards US Guam. However, in the event that the United States and its allies start a war and try to remove the regime of Kim Jong-un, then China "will be obliged to prevent this."

China's involvement in the upcoming war is a completely different reality. The PRC definitely has ballistic nuclear missiles, and if necessary, they will reach the United States without any problems. As, in fact, the American ones - in the opposite direction. But it will no longer be the Second Korean War, but the Third World War.

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