Features of rational and intuitive decisions, appeal to past experience. Abstract intuitive solutions
There are different approaches to the typology of management decisions. One classification divides them into intuitive, judgmental and rational decisions. Judgmental decisions are choices informed by knowledge and past experiences. In contrast, rational decisions do not have direct support only on past experience as “common sense”, but are made on the basis of a sequence of analytical procedures.
An intuitive decision looks like an instantaneous insight. However, this insight is possible only if a person has complete information on this issue.
Intuitive decisions are choices made on the basis of inner conviction without justification, most often they are not complex problems and have the following features: 1) the subject keeps the problem in mind. 2) as the problem develops, the approach may be changed. 3) simultaneous consideration of options is possible. 4) violation of the algorithm. 5) quality depends on the experience of the decision maker. Therefore, when solving, most often the solutions are satisfactory.
“+” of an intuitive solution: speed; “-” intuitive solution: erroneous, standard.
Rational decisions, unlike intuitive ones, do not depend on past experience. They are based on an objective analysis of complex problem situations using scientific methods and computer technology. In this case, the term “rational” characterizes, first of all, the method of developing a solution, and not its quality. Rational decisions are made through a multi-step analytical process, but they too can be wrong. At the same time, rational choice does not exclude the use of logic and intuition, which are always actively involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, rational decisions are considered the most reasonable, since in the process of their development and adoption all mechanisms available to humans are used - intuition, logic and calculation.
The process of rational problem solving does not provide a single solution, but a set of choices.
Stages of rational problem solving:
Diagnosis of the problem is determined on the basis of awareness and identification of “symptoms”. Some common symptoms are low quality and productivity, excessive costs, numerous conflicts. To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external information. Leaders in hierarchical structures can suffer from information overload, so it is important to distinguish and filter relevant and irrelevant information. Relevant information is data that relates only to a specific problem, purpose and time period.
Formulation of constraints and criteria for decision making - possible solutions to problems must be realistic. Objective limitations may be: lack of funds, insufficiency of components, resources, technologies; laws and ethical considerations, and hierarchically determined narrowing of powers. In addition to restrictions, it is necessary to determine standards (criteria) for decision making.
Identifying Alternatives - In-depth problem analysis is necessary to develop a wide range of truly distinct alternatives. Once you have compiled a list of all the ideas, you should begin evaluating each alternative.
Evaluation of alternatives - comparison of solutions with each other and for compliance with the criteria (standards) for decision-making. All decisions should be expressed in certain forms, in which the goal is expressed and for each parameter give a standard assessment.
Final choice - The control level simply selects the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences.
Rational decisions are informed and accurate.
When making rational decisions, the following methods are used: 1) Calculation and analytical - aimed at justifying decisions aimed at developing and improving existing trends (predictive analysis). 2) Expert methods: paired comparison method (used when it is necessary to exclude worst options); documentation method, ranking method; group survey method; decomposition method (breaking a problem into its component parts to determine the essence of the problem); analogy method (development of standard solutions); method of control questions (its task is to activate creative thinking); method of decision matrices (needed for analyzing complex problems). 3) program-target methods of justification (for the basis of strategic decisions): method of structuring goals (quantitatively and qualitatively justify the goals of the organization and its divisions from the point of view of compliance with general organizational goals).
Therefore, when choosing a method for justifying a decision, one should take into account: the complexity of the problem, the situation, the criteria, and the preferences of the decision maker.
6) Target orientation of management decisions
A goal is the state of a management object that the organization strives to achieve.
IN general view the goal must satisfy the conditions
* be desirable for its initiator * have technical, economic and other capabilities for development and implementation * be necessary for the company’s team and society, timeliness * the text of the goal must include a keyword meaning constant change. For example, achievement, expansion, reduction, development, maximum profit, etc.
Systematicity, complexity, consistency, achievability, specificity, flexibility, acceptability
The choice of mission determines the goals that the organization sets for itself. Therefore, we can give the following definition of goals: “Goals are those areas of activity of the organization, by implementing which it carries out its mission.”
Strategic goals are formed when determining the long-term development policy of the organization, and tactical goals are formed when solving operational management problems.
The target orientation of management decisions implies
goal priority. That is, the entire process of developing and implementing management decisions should be focused on achieving the planned goal. Goal orientation is achieved as a result of the use of professional management technologies for the development and implementation of management decisions, which are in their own way the art, skill and ability of a manager to exercise management influence on staff in order to achieve the general and key goals of the organization.
Constant changes in the market make it necessary to set new goals and, consequently, to implement them, which affects the nature of the management process. Determining the goals of solving a problem poses a difficulty due to the fact that only simple solutions, as a rule, have one goal. In most decisions there are several of them, and contradictions between them are possible. Along with new ones, there are goals that should be preserved. For example, when solving the problem of increasing production volumes or reducing costs, you should remember to ensure product quality. In this case, the goal that needs to be preserved acts as a constraint.
: the more correctly the goal is set, the more confident the performers act in its implementation.
When defining goals, you should take into account their entire range. However, the complexity of solving the problem and the number of alternatives considered largely depend on the number of goals. It is advisable to reduce the number of goals by simplifying and aggregating them. This can be achieved in the following way: first, identify the presence of subgoals to achieve the main one and exclude them from the list of goals. For example, when establishing the main goal - making a profit, reducing the cost of production is a subgoal, a means of achieving it; secondly, determine the reality of achieving the goals; exclude targets that do not meet this condition; thirdly, it is desirable to combine goals that coincide in content.
If several goals are identified, then the main one is identified, in relation to which the search for an optimal solution is carried out.
When setting goals, it is necessary to proceed from the general interests of the system, taking into account the possible conflicting interests of individual subsystems of the enterprise, expressed for private purposes;
Signs of the relationship between goals and decisions: Goal is the initial stage of developing a solution; The goal is the basis for monitoring the implementation of the decision; A goal without solutions is fruitless; Decisions are a mechanism for achieving goals; Goals determine the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of decisions. In order for the management system to be constructive, it is necessary to have criteria that allow assessing the degree to which the goal has been achieved.
7) Decision makers in the process of adopting SD, styles
Personal assessments of the leader. Subjectivity is inevitable personal assessments when ranking or prioritizing in the decision-making process. The basis for the formation of all management decisions is the value system of the decision maker (decision maker). The value system determines his actions and influences the choice of decision. Each person has his own value system, which determines his actions and influences his decisions. For example, in the process of making a management decision, a manager may choose an alternative that ensures compliance with social and ethical standards, but requires a lot of time. Such qualities of a leader as pessimism, optimism and practicality have a strong impact on the quality of sustainable development.
The manager's practicality is associated with extensive work experience and an established base of templates for difficult situations. The manager's optimism is based on an overestimation of the capabilities of employees, including his own, the company itself, its suppliers and clients, possibly.
Optimism must be supported by a high level of professionalism in management and the technological capabilities of the company. Optimistic managers take on risky, but profitable work for the company and often bring seemingly failed projects to a positive result.
A manager's pessimism is based on an underestimation of the capabilities of employees, including their own, the company itself, its suppliers and clients. The manager believes that the lower option will most likely be implemented, which will bring the company a stable but low profit. This approach can be effective in traditional, low-change industries.
The mechanism for making management decisions includes:
1. goal setting.2. Problem analysis.3. Establishing the likely consequences of the decision.4. Analysis with specialists of various options for solving a problem (task).5. Selection, formulation and specification of the optimal solution for its subsequent implementation.6. Decision-making.
Delegation of authority is the transfer of rights and responsibilities from a superior manager to a subordinate, from a line manager to the head of a staff structure, from a manager directly to a subordinate. Skillful delegation of authority is an integral component of the process of making collective management decisions. If the manager does not delegate authority, then management decisions are made by him alone.
Styles: The authoritarian leadership style is characterized by strict centralization, the process of developing management decisions from one management center, pressure on subordinates, and the use of manipulative strategies to influence personnel. This style is chosen by the leadership of highly bureaucratic structures or small business organizations with a significant concentration of power in the hands of one person - the entrepreneur.
The democratic leadership style is characterized by a high degree of participation of the workforce or middle and lower management in making strategic decisions. important decisions. In the first case we are talking about collective decisions, and in the second about collegial ones. The democratic style is used in decentralized organizations in which management is carried out according to goals and results. Such organizations are characterized by: flexible, adaptive structures, high motivation and competence of personnel.
The liberal leadership style is characterized by a certain level of opportunities for employee participation in management decisions. However, the situation in a team can develop differently, sometimes unpredictably. A leader who uses a liberal style can withdraw from management. In this case, the organization is managed by representatives of the “elite core”, who receive unlimited access to power and resources. Clashes between different groups and a sharp increase in conflicts in the team are possible.
8) Systematic approach to SD, stages of problem solving
System analysis is a science that deals with the problem of decision-making in the conditions of analyzing a large amount of information; the purpose of applying system analysis to a specific problem is to increase the degree of validity of the decision made, to expand the set of options among which a choice is made, while simultaneously indicating ways to reject those that are obviously inferior to others.
The systems approach is a comprehensive, integrated approach. It involves a comprehensive consideration of specific characteristics. Management decision making is the choice of one course of action from alternative options. A management decision refers to the actions of a manager in order to select the optimal action when at least two options are available. The complexity of choosing solutions increases as the number of options increases.
.The adoption of any management decision is preceded by an analysis aimed at studying options. The decision criterion is to choose the most economical option.
principles of the systems approach:
the decision-making process must begin with the identification and clear formulation of specific goals;
it is necessary to consider the whole problem as a whole, as unified system and identify all the consequences and interrelationships of each particular decision;
it is necessary to identify and analyze possible alternative ways to achieve the goal;
the goals of individual subsystems should not conflict with the goals of the entire system
9) main directions in the theory of decision making. Normative and descriptive theories prin dec.
DECISION MAKING THEORY is a part of management theory that studies methods of analysis, development of a course of action depending on the target setting and conditions in which the activity is carried out, available resources, and composition of performers. There is a normative theory, which describes the rational decision-making process, and a descriptive theory, which describes the practice of decision-making
The descriptive component describes the actual behavior and thinking of people in the decision-making process and is called psychological decision theory. A descriptive model is a model for describing and explaining observed facts or predicting the behavior of objects, providing practical experience in making decisions. The normative approach allows you to assess the problem situation, take into account limitations and resources, and analyze various options. Descriptive theory allows us to better understand how people make their choices, what factors influence legal decisions, what psychological mechanisms influence them, and the role of the social environment.
Normative decision-making theory is a science that develops methods for forming standard processes for making management decisions. Normative decision theory is a system of methods that provide decision support. These methods “organize” a person’s thinking and prescribe how he should behave in the decision-making process. Currently, a large number of different methods and procedures have been developed that are designed to help people understand a complex situation and their preferences, correctly formulate goals, limitations, alternatives, evaluate their consequences and make a quality decision.
All of these methods are based on some concept of human decision making. Normative decision theory is based on two main concepts - utility maximization and bounded rationality.
1. The concept of utility maximization In accordance with this concept, the so-called rational person is considered, who always tries to accept the optimal, i.e. the best possible solution. Each of us has our own utility function, reflecting our individual system preferences. When evaluating each decision, we explicitly or implicitly compare to it a certain value of our utility function, which shows the degree of preference of this decision compared to others.
2. The concept of bounded rationality The study of decision-making processes in organizations has led to the conclusion that in reality people rarely behave like a “rational” person. In fact, in most real-life situations, they are usually limited to satisfactory solutions, which are usually inferior to optimal solutions in quality, but are quite acceptable from the point of view of achieving the goal. Moreover, the head of an organization is forced to make satisfactory decisions for several reasons. First, from a large number of possibilities, he sees only a few alternatives, and therefore it is unlikely that his choice will be optimal. Secondly, he cannot foresee everyone possible consequences each alternative. Thirdly, he often lacks knowledge, and therefore his decisions are usually based on very approximate and general ideas about those processes and objects that need management. Fourthly, the manager works under “chronic” time pressure and therefore often makes mistakes. Fifthly, he does not have all the necessary information, since he makes decisions under conditions of external and internal environment s organizations
10) Methods and models of decision making
The payment matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can help a manager choose one of several options. Matrix rows - alternative behavior strategies, columns - possible states external environment. The cells of the matrix indicate payments. Payments can mean positive results or income, as well as negative results or expenses.
Decision-making under conditions of complete environmental uncertainty is possible using three criteria.
1. MAXIMAX - focused on obtaining the maximum expected result (optimist approach). In accordance with it, the alternative that gives the maximum in the cells of the payment matrix is selected as optimal (build a large plant)
2. MAXIMIN - focused on obtaining a guaranteed gain in the worst state of the external environment (pessimist approach, Wald criterion). In accordance with it, the alternative that has the maximum value of the expected result in the least favorable state of the environment (refusal of construction) is selected as the optimal one.
3. Equilibrium approach (Laplace criterion), in which the alternative with the maximum value of the payment averaged over all states of the payment environment is selected.
Sensitivity analysis is the determination of the level of probability to which a given alternative is the best. The analysis can be performed only for the case of two possible states of the external environment and any number of alternatives. This is its limitation
Decision tree When constructing a tree, decision nodes mean the choice of alternatives made by the manager, and environmental state nodes mean possible responses from the environment, preferably in more complex situations.
Model types: physical, analog (organizational chart, graph),
mathematical (using symbols to describe actions or objects). Game theory is often used in modeling. She originally
was developed by the military to take into account possible enemy actions. IN
in business it is used when modeling the behavior of a competitor, especially
often due to problems with changing pricing policies.
A queuing theory model for determining the optimal number of service channels in relation to the demand for these channels.
Inventory management model. This model is often used for
optimization of order execution time, as well as to determine the necessary
resources and space for storing certain products.
Linear programming model is used to
determining the optimal distribution of scarce resources in the presence
competing needs.
Simulation modeling is used in situations where
difficult to use mathematical methods
Economic analysis is a form of modeling. Example
can serve as an economic analysis of the efficiency of a particular company.
time series analysis. It is based on the assumption that the patterns of the past can be used to predict the future. This method identifies trends from the past and projects them into the future.
The cause-and-effect method is the study of the statistical relationship between
the factor under consideration and other variables. Jury's opinion. Expectations model. It is based on a survey of consumers and summarizing their opinions.
Delphi method - Its essence lies in the fact that experts fill out
special questionnaires on the problem under consideration. Each of them
creates his own forecast individually. These predictions are then shared with everyone
experts taking part in the discussion. They get to know the opinion
colleagues. and perhaps adjust their previous forecast based on new ones
ideas or information. This procedure is repeated three to four times until
Ultimately, all experts will not come to a consensus.
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1. Classification of management decisions
2. Criteria for management decisions
3. What are intuitive management decisions
4. Who has the right to make intuitive decisions?
For a long time - right up to the emergence of the behavioral approach - management theory was based on the postulate of rational behavior in general and decision-making in particular. It consists in the fact that a leader must and can build his behavior and make decisions, focusing on maximum consideration of all factors of the situation. This led to the development of so-called rigid management schemes based on the concept of “rational man.” However, it was later shown that objectively inherent in man psychophysiological restrictions make strictly rational behavior and decision-making impossible, and a full account of all objective factors is also impossible in principle. As a result, the concept of “bounded rationality” was developed, one of the main theses of which is that subjective, psychological characteristics are objective, limiting factors of behavior. They have an important and often decisive influence on both decision-making processes and management. As a result, a “school of decision-making” emerges, which justifies the need for a transition from hard-rationalist ideas to “soft” management schemes; The classical theory of the firm gave way to behavioral theory.
There are different approaches to the typology of management decisions. One classification divides them into intuitive, judgmental, and rational decisions. Intuitive decisions are distinguished by the fact that they poorly represent the stages that were discussed above and, in particular, the stage of conscious assessment - “weighing” alternatives. A judgmental decision is a choice informed by knowledge and past experience. In contrast, rational decisions do not have direct support only on past experience as “common sense”, but are made on the basis of a sequence of analytical procedures.
The decision made must meet certain criteria - only in this case can it be considered optimal. Despite the variety of conditions and approaches that make each management decision unique, we can identify a number of universal criteria for “good” and “bad” management decisions (Table 6.1):
Table Criteria for management decisions
Intuitive decisions are choices made based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find correct solution Problems. Thus, intuition is an indispensable component of the creative management process as a whole. Despite the fact that intuition becomes sharper along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes a hostage to chance. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product, but it will only be able to produce and sell at a profit only some of its types. Moreover, in some cases, the manager does not even know the possible choices at first. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with permanent randomness. From a statistical point of view, the chances of making the right choice without some application of logic are low.
The intuitive solution comes after or during the rest that follows intense but fruitless attempts to solve the problem.
An intuitive solution requires a properly organized formal-logical verification of its truth. It is the logical test that suggests the direction of further search for truth if the decision turns out to be erroneous.
An intuitive decision always precedes a logical one. This phenomenon has long been known to the psychology of creativity, although it has remained unclear until now. It is now clear to us: it cannot be otherwise, since a logical solution arises only on the basis of an intuitive one, when the problem has actually already been solved. This is where the need arises to express the decision in language, verbalize it, and sometimes formalize it, in other words, formulate it logically.
Sometimes very effective intuitive solutions come to a person in a dream.
An intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is the right one, and there is no clear explanation for such a choice.
The aesthetic factor also takes part in the process of intuitive decision. With any type of intuition - eidetic or conceptual - it is as if the picture (situation) is being completed to completeness.
As you know, intuitive decisions, visions or images arise spontaneously, unexpectedly, out of nowhere.
Both in the case of intuitive decisions and in statistical regulation, random checks to identify abnormalities are performed on the basis of the same samples as the checks that make up the operational chain of decisions: tuning - control of the tuning level - selective acceptance. Thus, they are connected to the operational chain by combining samples.
Can an intuitive solution be beneficial?
Who has the right to make intuitive decisions.
However, random observations and intuitive decisions are becoming not only insufficient, but even harmful in technology today.
Indeed, the description of the intuitive decision process depends relatively little on the type of activity creative personality. It is characteristic that both the scientist and the composer, when describing intuitive creativity, pay considerable attention to emotions. The role of this component in finding and solving technical problems is underestimated in the literature on inventive creativity.
The choice of area is associated with the intuitive decisions that the experimenter makes at each stage of the work.
Many studies confirm that an intuitive solution to a problem is achieved first, and then a logical one. However, intuition grows only from the depths of experience and previously acquired knowledge. What is needed is not just knowledge, but knowledge embodied in the skills and abilities to solve inventive problems, even if they are not very complex. This is a fairly lengthy process, which should begin at school or vocational school.
Along with the logical solution of problems, there is their intuitive solution by directly considering the result - the truth.
The listed patterns are most strictly related to obtaining an intuitive solution, an intuitive effect. Such tasks, while remaining creative, are not problems.
The optimal option must be made not on the basis of an intuitive decision, but on the basis of a strict calculation using the criterion of comparative effectiveness. Evaluating various route generation options is all the more necessary for complex, multi-defect parts with a large number of possible states.
Veitch diagram for a function of four variables. Simplification of logical expressions using identities is based on intuitive decisions and is very difficult, especially with a large number of variables.
The main feature of all the examples considered is that eye-based, intuitive decisions turn out to be untenable. The failures that our intuition gives when solving calculation problems are a very characteristic and understandable phenomenon. Our brain is adapted to successfully and quickly solve only those tasks for which it is trained. In this it resembles a computer: no program, no solution. The only difference is that in the absence of a program, a computer simply will not work, but a person will...
The path integral also turns out to be very effective in deriving direct and intuitive solutions to several quantum mechanical problems where the operator formalism in Hilbert space hides the physical meaning of the calculations. The main purpose of introducing the path integral is to establish a connection between the transition amplitudes of quantum dynamics and the trajectories of classical dynamics.
Intuition is, of course, very important for managers, but intuitive decisions must be verified by facts. Of course, the importance of the role of intuition is not in doubt.
Unfortunately, equations (10.68) and (10.69) do not have any intuitive solution; furthermore, there are no known analytical solutions.
On the other hand, the management game follows the example of the business world, emphasizing the importance of intuitive decisions, without sufficient attention to the consequences arising from the different ways of achieving these decisions. Management games perpetuate the black box nature of the business world. The causal structure of the game itself is not the subject of study. The game focuses on a short-term crisis and making an immediate decision in connection with it, rather than on the long-term development of rules and organization that would avoid the crisis. If a management game tries to improve intuitive decision making, it directs the risk inherent in nonlinear systems learning, for a special combination of circumstances that exist in the game, but do not provide a basis for determining when these special conditions will cease to exist.
The first and fourth phases represent a logical search and transformation of information necessary for the maturation of an intuitive decision, as well as an analysis of this decision, while the second and third are intuitive. Consequently, opposite types of thinking work together in creativity: both logical and figurative.
Both of the above phenomena have been characterized as anomalous, but in fact they are the result of insufficiently motivated intuitive decisions and clearly demonstrate the need for fundamental research. To be able to accurately predict the behavior of coatings, it is necessary to develop phase identification methods, as well as studies of diffusion, evaporation, glass transition and other fundamental phenomena.
Most often, subjective information obtained during an interview is used only to support an intuitive decision.
The problems under consideration belong to the class of complex dynamic problems, where both strictly formalized and intuitive decisions are made.
The problems considered in this work belong to the class of complex dynamic problems, where both strictly formalized and intuitive decisions are made.
The following series of experiments is applicable to situations where analysis was also possible, but the manager is less confident in the correctness of his intuitive decisions. In some of these situations, analysis can confirm and reinforce his intuition; in others, analysis will refute or correct it.
Delegation (distribution of responsibilities and powers among one's subordinates) aims to relieve the manager and give him the opportunity to search for intuitive solutions to problems that are difficult to verbalize; however, we still know little about how a leader can increase his or her ability to respond to such situations. Like a manager in the field of management, a specialist in management science must be able to intuitively approach management problems in order to be effective in his work. However, unlike a manager, a specialist in management science must also have an intuitive understanding of his own tools of analysis.
Then, if the conditions under which the process, in principle, proceeds, even as poorly as desired, are known, it is possible, using intuitive decisions, to select the zero level and the intervals of variation of factors.
The human mind is still able to compete with a computer, and if not in the speed of thinking, then in the presence of many associative connections and the ability to make intuitive decisions.
The current practice of education is in a transitional stage - educators are not yet working according to well-established scientific technology, but are gradually moving away from intuitive solutions to educational problems that are focused on individuality. There is a noticeable desire for the introduction of proven, beneficial technological discoveries, a desire for unification and standardization of requirements.
Although obvious grids have become established as a necessary prerequisite in modern graphic design, they will continue to erode in favor of less systematic, less logical, more intuitive solutions.
The term heuristics in the generally accepted sense denotes a certain amount of non-standard, i.e. techniques, methods and procedures that are unusual for this type of problem, leading to a guess, i.e. to an intuitive solution of the type of problems under consideration. Of course, a heuristic solution to any complex technical problem- this is her preliminary decision, the correctness of which we are confident only intuitively. Such a solution requires serious experimental research and solid mathematical justification.
The practical feasibility of using decision-making methods can be proven over time, when sufficient experience has been accumulated confirming that the consequences of human activity based on intuitive decisions are significantly inferior in usefulness to the results of a scientifically based choice of alternatives. Now that there is little experience in the practical application of decision-making methods, they are supported by the fact that the reasons for many unsuccessful decisions lie in insufficient attention to the selection process. A convincing argument also seems to be that a group of people or a decision maker (DM) must be rational, at least in order to be able to explain to others the logical basis of their choice.
Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. An intuitive solution arises as an internal insight, enlightenment of thought, revealing the essence of the issue being studied. Intuition is an essential component of the creative process. Psychology considers intuition in connection with sensory and logical knowledge and practical activity as direct knowledge in its unity with indirect knowledge, previously acquired.
Intuition, as a component of the creative process, represents the ability to quickly, as if suddenly, find the right solution to a problem. An intuitive solution arises as an internal insight, enlightenment of thought, helping to reveal the essence of the issue being studied.
Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. An intuitive solution arises as an internal insight, enlightenment of thought, revealing the essence of the issue being studied. Intuition is an essential component of the creative process. Psychology considers intuition in connection with sensory and logical knowledge and practical activity as direct knowledge in its unity with indirect knowledge, previously acquired.
Development of design tools due to the emergence of new application packages, computer-aided design systems (SMOD) and various local automation tools design work gives the issues of automation of design management even greater relevance, since with computer-aided design it is necessary to ensure synchronicity in making design and management decisions. Intuitive decisions of individual project managers and performers are not always effective and efficient. It is necessary to strictly justify each management decision made, which large quantities options for organizing the design process are impossible without automation of calculations.
The inadequacy of such programs and plans reveals the high degree of difficulty of this creative task. The success of an intuitive solution depends on the degree of automation of the method of action: the less automated this method is, the greater the chances of solving the problem. When searching for creative solutions, one should not avoid simplifications, and one should not be afraid to go beyond the initially intended area of research. Awareness of the fact of the decision occurs completely unexpectedly; it arises due to the fact that a need that has reached great tension by this time is satisfied. First, the fact of satisfying the need is realized, and then - solving the problem. In this decision vital role belongs to a by-product, which may not be realized, because At first, the method of solution is not realized.
The latter decision was recommended by the EVOP committee. This is an example of the intuitive solution that is so typical in an industrial experiment. If there is no great danger of a sharp deterioration in the process, then testing such hypotheses obtained without sufficient formal grounds is certainly justified. And some risk always exists.
The successful choice of sub-area is, as you can see, of great importance for the success of the entire work. It is associated with the intuitive decisions that the experimenter makes at each stage. We will look at how this is done below - in the next chapter and in Chap.
Good choice of subdomain is of great importance. It is associated with intuitive decisions, catarrhs are made by the experimenter at each stage.
From experience it follows that favorable circumstances arise when the subject, fruitlessly searching for a solution to the problem, exhausts the wrong techniques, but has not yet reached the stage at which the search dominant extinguishes, i.e. when the subject loses interest in the task, when already attempted and unsuccessful attempts are repeated, when the situation of the task ceases to change and the subject recognizes the task as unsolvable. Hence the conclusion that the success of an intuitive solution depends on the extent to which the researcher managed to free himself from the template, become convinced of the unsuitability of previously known paths and at the same time maintain passion for the problem and not recognize it as unsolvable. The hint turns out to be decisive in liberation from standard, template trains of thought.
The level of validity of decisions is directly related to the methodology for making them. Here we can also distinguish stages: intuitive decisions, normative ones and, finally, decisions confirmed by the use of mathematical modeling methods. The degree of validity of decisions at each stage increases.
managerial intuitive logical rational
Intuitive decisions are choices made solely based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Judgmental decisions are choices driven by knowledge or experience.
Intuitive decisions are choices made based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. Thus, intuition is an indispensable component of the creative management process as a whole.
Literature
· Stafford Beer. Brain of the firm = Brain of the firm. -- 2nd ed. -- M.: URSS, 2005. -- P. 416.
· Goldstein G. Ya. Fundamentals of management: Tutorial, ed. 2nd, expanded and revised. - Taganrog: TRTU Publishing House, 2003. - 150 p.
· Peter Drucker Challenges of management in the 21st century = Challenge management in the 21st century. -- M.: "Williams", 2007. -- P. 272. -- ISBN 0-7506-4456-7
· Peter Drucker Practice of Management = The Practice of Management. -- M.: "Williams", 2007. -- P. 400. -- ISBN 0-7506-4393-5
· Zotov V.V., Presnyakov V.F., Rosenthal O.V. Institutional problems of implementing systemic functions of the economy // Economic science of modern Russia. -- 2001. -- No. 3. -- p. 51-69.
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course work, added 12/23/2009
abstract, added 03/07/2011
The concept of a management decision. Classification of management decisions. Technology of making management decisions and its implementation. Decision-making structure. Distribution of decision-making powers. Risk in decision making.
thesis, added 11/06/2006
The concept of management decisions and requirements for them. Classification of management decisions. The main stages of preparation and decision-making. Drawing up an organizational plan for implementing the solution. Finding possible options for achieving your goals.
lecture, added 03/31/2014
Basic concepts of the management decision-making process. Classifications of management decisions. Principles of family policy. Operational, tactical and strategic management decisions. Factors considered when making management decisions.
presentation, added 03/30/2016
Mintzberg's four leadership roles in decision making. Programmed solutions. Intuitive, rational, and judgment-based approaches to management decision making. Formulating a set of alternative solutions to a problem.
33. Intuitive and judgment-based management decisions
Intuitive solution based on the intuition of the person making the decision. Such decisions are based not on reasoning, not on a conscious comparison of options, but on a “sixth” sense. The “sixth” sense is formed by the subconscious, memory, and an active desire to find ways out of the current situation.
When setting a goal to solve a problem, people automatically trigger mechanisms for searching, comparing, and selecting solutions that allow them to cope with the problem.
Deliberately chosen options for action are based on a preliminary analysis of the problem, search and comparison of options, selection of the best, optimal one.
Decisions based on the judgments of the persons developing and making these decisions have their origin in systems analysis and a systems approach. Such decisions are scientifically based if scientific methods are used in the process of their preparation and the apparatus of modeling the impact of the decision on the controlled system is used.
Decisions based on the judgment of the person making them reflect both the opinion resulting from the person's knowledge and experience, and from his intuition, ideas and beliefs, called “common sense”. In this regard, they include intuition as an integral part.
In the classification of management decisions, there are short-term and protracted decisions.
Transient decisions are made in cases where a quick response to a problem is required. They characterize the speed of reaction of the decision maker to an unexpected problem. The quality and effectiveness of short-term solutions are low due to the lack of time required to choose a rational and optimal solution.
Consequences of delaying decisions: firstly, a belated decision may no longer be necessary; secondly, the slowdown in the development and adoption of decisions in most cases gives rise to an increase in costs, expenses, expenses for preparing a decision, called transaction costs. As soon as the total cost of improving the quality of the prepared solution exceeds the expected benefit in the process of its implementation, increasing the time required to prepare the solution reduces its effectiveness.
One should strive to reduce the time required for preparing and making management decisions, but within the normal time required to ensure the validity and effectiveness of the decision. In each specific case, such a norm depends on the situation, the type and degree of complexity of the solution, the need for approvals and many other factors.
Delaying a decision– the desire of decision makers to postpone the adoption procedure.
Managers who delay making decisions due to uncertainty about success and fear of adverse consequences expect that the problem will solve itself, without managerial intervention, or will simply be forgotten by those who are concerned about it. But this is a vicious tactic that leads to a subsequent aggravation of the neglected problem.
34. Communication and its features. Communication manners
Communication- This: 1) transfer of information (ideas, images, assessments, attitudes) from person to person; 2) interaction through which information is transmitted and received; the process of transmitting and receiving information; 3) a line or channel connecting participants in the exchange of information.
Features of communications between people: 1) the possibility of mutual influence of partners on each other through a system of signs (verbal and nonverbal communications); 2) communicative influence only if there is a single or similar system of codification and decodification between the communicator (the person sending the information) and the recipient (the person receiving it); 3) the possibility of communication barriers arising.
Interdependencies in the communication process: 1) the sender must ensure that his message is not only received, but also properly understood; 2) the sender must identify in advance the identity of the person to whom he wants to send the message, he must know how the audience will interpret it; 3) the sender must convince the recipient that the message is worth attention; 4) the message must be perceived even in conditions of interference (noise) in the channel, and Feedback must be interpreted correctly.
The transfer of information is expressed communication message. It is clothed in a specific form: visual, textual, symbolic. It reaches the recipient through a specific communication channel.
The structure of the message should answer three questions: 1) whether to make a clear conclusion in the message or leave this right to the audience; 2) when to present the most compelling arguments - at the beginning or at the end of the message; 3) whether to present only the arguments “for” or to provide arguments and “against”.
Communicative communication styles– ways of interacting with other people in the process of communication.
Communication manners:
1) dominant (reducing the role of others in communication);
2) dramatic (exaggeration and emotional coloring of the content of the message);
3) controversial (aggressive or proving manner of communication);
4) calming (a relaxing manner of communication aimed at reducing the anxiety of the interlocutor);
5) impressive (behavior aimed at impressing the negotiating partner);
6) accurate (aimed at the accuracy of the message);
7) attentive (showing interest in what the interlocutors say during the communicative process);
8) inspired (frequent use of nonverbal behavior - eye contact, gestures, body movement);
9) friendly (open encouragement of the interlocutor); 10) open (representing the desire to express one’s opinion, feelings, emotions).
Solution- this is the choice of actions that a person needs to take when he has information that is completely insufficient for the answer to suggest itself.
There are two main approaches to decision making: intuitive and rational.
Intuitive approach
Intuition- instinct, insight, direct comprehension of the truth without a logical basis, based on previous experience (Kholodnaya, “Psychology of Intelligence”)
Intuition– the ability to arrive at an intellectual result unconsciously based on the emergence of a subjective feeling of the unconditional correctness of the decision.
Intuition is characterized by:
- speed (sometimes instantaneity) of formulating hypotheses and making decisions;
- insufficient awareness of its logical foundations.
Intuition manifests itself in conditions of subjectively and/or objectively incomplete information and is organically included in the inherent ability of human thinking extrapolations(replenishment of existing and anticipation of still unknown information).
Mechanisms of intuition consist in the simultaneous combination of several informative signs of different modalities into complex guidelines that guide the search for a solution. ( Meshcheryakov, Zinchenko)
Features of the information stage when making an intuitive decision:
- Often used to solve relatively simple problems;
- The intuitive approach does not give good results when the manager's experience is small and the previous situations do not correspond to the new one;
- The quality of intuitive decisions may be affected by an insufficient understanding of the current situation
Character traits:
1. The subject of the decision keeps the whole problem in his head;
2. As the problem develops, the approach to solving it can change radically;
3. It is possible to simultaneously consider several options;
4. The sequence of steps may not be followed;
5. The quality of a decision is based primarily on the previous experience of the decision maker.
Rational approach
It consists of structuring the decision-making process.
Features of the information stage:
- It is used if the problem situation is not so obvious, its solution is ambiguous;
- Mandatory elements of the process are the presence of a step-by-step plan and solution methods, as well as their information support;
- The work of collecting, processing and evaluating information is carried out at all stages of the process, but each time it has its own characteristics, reflecting the specifics of the actions performed and tasks to be solved, as well as the manager’s work style;
- The decision-making process diagram below reflects the logic management activities. In practice, this process is more complex and allows for parallelism of a number of procedures, which can significantly reduce the decision-making time.
Stages of the decision making process, each of which corresponds to certain procedures:
1. Statement of the problem: the emergence of a new situation, the emergence of a problem, collecting the necessary information, describing the problem situation;
2. Development of solution options; formulation of requirements-constraints; collecting the necessary information, developing possible solutions;
3. Selecting a solution: defining selection criteria, selecting solutions that meet the criteria; assessment of possible consequences, selection of a preferable solution;
4. Organization of the implementation of the solution and its assessment: plan for the implementation of the selected solution, monitoring the progress of the solution, assessment of the problem and the emergence of a new situation.
Thus, a rational decision is justified analytically.
8. Features of balanced, impulsive, inert, risky, cautious decisions.
The main factors influencing the quality of a management decision are: the application of scientific approaches and principles, modeling methods, management automation, motivation for a quality decision, etc. to the management system.
Typically, in making any decision, three elements are present to varying degrees: intuition, judgment and rationality. Let's get to know each of them separately /9/.
Upon acceptance purely intuitive solution people base their decisions on their own feelings that their choices are correct. There is a “sixth sense” here, a kind of insight, usually visited by representatives of the highest echelon of power. Middle managers rely more on computer information and assistance. Despite the fact that intuition becomes sharper along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes hostage to chance, and from a statistical point of view, his chances of making the right choice are not very high.
Solutions, based on judgment are in many ways similar to intuitive ones, probably because at first glance their logic is poorly visible. But still, they are based on knowledge and meaningful, unlike the previous case, experience of the past. Using them and relying on common sense, as adjusted for today, the option that brought the greatest success in a similar situation in the past is selected. However, common sense is rare among people, so this method of decision-making is also not very reliable, although it is captivating with its speed and cheapness.
Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not previously occurred, and therefore there is simply no experience in solving it. In addition, with this approach, the manager strives to act primarily in those directions that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing out on good results in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.
Since decisions are made by people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth. In this regard, it is customary to distinguish between balanced, impulsive, inert, risky and cautious decisions.
Balanced Solutions accepted by managers who are attentive and critical to their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.
Impulsive decisions whose authors easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are unable to properly test, clarify, and evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; they are made “at once”, “in jerks”.
Inert solutions become the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.
Risky decisions They differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.
Careful decisions are characterized by the manager’s thorough assessment of all options and a hypercritical approach to business. They are even less distinguished by novelty and originality than inert ones.
The listed types of decisions are made mainly in the process of operational personnel management. For strategic and tactical management of any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions, based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization. These issues will be discussed below.
INTUITIVE SOLUTIONS. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made solely on the basis Feel that he is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just a person making a choice. What we call insight or sixth sense are intuitive decisions. Management expert Peter Schoederbeck points out that “while increased information about an issue can greatly help middle managers make decisions, those at the top still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data without replacing time-honored managerial intuitive know-how.” Significant dependence of managers top level Professor Mintzberg confirmed this from intuition in his research.
According to another study of senior managers, 80% of executives surveyed said they discovered they had a specific serious problem only through “informal exchanges of information and intuition.” Dr. Jonas Sock, who discovered the polyvaccine, states: “Intuition is something whose biology we still do not understand. But always, waking up in the morning in pleasant excitement, I think: what does she have in store for me today, as if I were waiting for seafood. I work hand in hand with her and rely on her. She is my partner." Paul Cook, founder and president of the materials science firm Reich, says almost all of his decisions are intuitive, and the big decisions he has regretted were not based on intuition.
In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product. However, produce and sell with profit he will succeed only in some of its types. Moreover, in some cases, the manager does not even know the possible choices at first. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with permanent randomness. From a statistical point of view, the chances of making the right choice without some application of logic are low.
RATIONAL SOLUTIONS. The main difference between rational and judgmental decisions is that the former is not dependent on past experience. A rational decision is justified using an objective analytical process of the type described below.
Rational problem solving
Problem solving, like management, is a process, because we are talking about an endless sequence of interrelated steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything related to and resulting from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. Therefore, although we imagine the process of solving a problem as five-stage (plus implementation and feedback), the actual number of stages is determined by the problem itself (Fig. 7.1.).
Rice. 7.1. Stages of rational problem solving.
Stages of rational problem solving
1. DIAGNOSIS OF THE PROBLEM. The first step towards solving a problem is a definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. There are two ways to look at the problem. According to one, a problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved. In other words, you become aware of a problem because something that should have happened does not happen. By doing this, you smooth out deviations from the norm, as shown in Chapter. 1. For example, a foreman may determine that the productivity of his site is below normal. This will be reactive control, its necessity is obvious. However, too often managers view problems as only situations in which something should happen, but does not happen. The problem can also be considered potential opportunity. For example, actively looking for ways to improve the efficiency of a department, even if things are going well, would be proactive management. In this case, you will become aware of the problem when you realize that something can be done either to improve the progress of the matter or to capitalize on the opportunity. By doing this, you act as an entrepreneurial manager. Management expert Peter Drucker emphasizes this by pointing out that solving a problem only restores the norm, but results “must be a consequence of taking advantage of opportunities.”
It is often difficult to fully define a problem because all parts of an organization are interconnected. The work of the marketing manager, for example, affects the work of the sales manager, the production supervisors, the research and development department, and every other person in the company. Similarly, the work of laboratory technicians affects the actions of doctors in the hospital. If the laboratory makes a mistake, the physician is likely to make it worse because his decisions are based on the laboratory analysis. IN large organization there may be hundreds of such interdependencies. Therefore, as they say, getting a problem right is half solving it, but this is difficult to apply to organizational decisions. As a result, diagnosing a problem itself often becomes a multi-step procedure with intermediate decisions being made.
The first phase in diagnosing a complex problem is awareness and identification of symptoms of difficulties or available opportunities. Concept "symptom" used here in a completely medical sense. Some common symptoms of organizational illness are low profits, sales, productivity and quality, excessive costs, numerous conflicts in the organization and high employee turnover. Usually several symptoms complement each other. Excessive costs and low profits, for example, often go together.
Identifying symptoms helps define the problem in general terms. This also helps to reduce the number of factors that must be taken into account in relation to management. However, just as a headache can be a symptom of fatigue or a brain tumor, general symptom type of low profitability is due to many factors. Therefore, it is generally advisable to avoid taking immediate action to resolve a symptom, as some managers tend to do. By analogy with a doctor who takes a test and studies it to determine real reasons illness, the manager must penetrate deeply to identify the reasons for the ineffectiveness of the organization. The need to correctly identify symptoms and causes is emphasized by a senior management consultant at Boose, Ellen & Hamilton. He points out that a common mistake some managers make is the habit of berating workers for low productivity and profits: “Managers cannot see others possible reasons, for example, the impact of material costs and overheads, although these components of operating costs are increasing. As a result, companies needlessly invest in productivity plans and lay off workers.”
To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (relative to the organization) information. Such information can be collected on the basis of formal methods, using, for example, market analysis outside the organization, and inside it - computer analysis of financial statements, interviewing, inviting management consultants or employee surveys. Information can also be collected informally by talking about the situation and making personal observations. For example, a foreman might discuss a productivity issue with workers and pass the resulting information upward.
Increasing the amount of information does not necessarily improve the quality of the decision. As Russell Ackoff points out, managers suffer from an overabundance of irrelevant information. Therefore, during observations, it is important to recognize the differences between relevant and irrelevant information and be able to separate one from the other. RELEVANT INFORMATION (relevant - relevant) is data relating only to a specific problem, person, goal and period of time (Fig. 7.2.).
Rice. 7.2. Data selection. The initial data must be “filtered”, discarding those that are not relevant and leaving only relevant information that will be used in the decision-making process.
Since relevant information is the basis of a decision, it is natural to ensure that it is as accurate and relevant to the problem as possible. It may be difficult for an organization to obtain comprehensive, accurate information on an issue. As shown in our case, the study of the communication process, psychological factors Always somewhat distort the information. The fact that there is a problem can create stress and anxiety, which significantly increases distortion.
If employees believe, for example, that management tends to blame them for trouble, they will consciously or unconsciously present information that casts a more favorable light on their positions. If a manager doesn't encourage honesty, employees may simply report what their boss wants to hear. The information obtained from this is as useful for making a decision as a patient asking a doctor to correct the readings of an X-ray machine because he cannot afford to undergo surgery. This also highlights the need to maintain good relationships within the organization.
2. FORMULATION OF LIMITATIONS AND DECISION MAKING CRITERIA. When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done about it. Many possible solutions to an organization's problems will not realistic, because either the manager or the organization does not have enough resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, the problem may be caused by forces outside the organization, such as laws that the manager has no power to change. Limitations on corrective actions limit decision-making options. Before moving on to the next stage of the process, the manager must impartially identify the nature of the limitations and only then identify alternatives. If this is not done, at a minimum, a lot of time will be wasted. It's even worse if an unrealistic course of action is chosen. Naturally, this will aggravate rather than solve the existing problem.
Limits vary and depend on the situation and individual leaders. Some common limitations are inadequacy of funds; insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience, inability to purchase resources at reasonable prices; the need for technology that has not yet been developed or is too expensive; extremely intense competition; laws and ethical considerations. As a rule, a large organization has fewer restrictions than a small or beset by many difficulties.
A significant limitation on all management decisions, although sometimes completely avoidable, is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by the top management (this topic is discussed in the section devoted to the process of organizing a business). In short, a manager can only make or implement a decision if senior management has granted him this authority.
In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to determine the standards by which alternative choices will be evaluated. These standards are usually called decision-making criteria. They act as guidelines for evaluating decisions. For example, when deciding to buy a car, you can focus on the criteria of cost - no more than 10 thousand dollars, efficiency - at least 25 miles per gallon of gasoline, capacity - five adults at the same time, attractiveness and good characteristics from a service point of view.
3. IDENTIFYING ALTERNATIVES. The next stage is the formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and thereby enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, a manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. Moreover, considering too many alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager typically limits the number of choices for serious consideration to just a few alternatives that seem most desirable.
Instead of looking for the best possible solution, people continue to try alternatives only until one emerges that satisfies a certain acceptable minimum standard. Managers understand that finding the optimal solution is too time-consuming, expensive, or difficult. Instead, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.
However, care must be taken to ensure that a sufficiently wide range of possible solutions is taken into account. In-depth analysis of difficult problems is necessary to develop several truly different alternatives, including the possibility of doing nothing. When management fails to appreciate what will happen if nothing is done, there is a danger of being overwhelmed by the demand for immediate action. Action for its own sake increases the likelihood of responding to an external symptom of a problem rather than the root cause.
If we return to our car example, you are now faced with choosing several models that you think meet your criteria. Having selected alternatives, you need to evaluate them.
4. EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES. The next step is to evaluate possible alternatives. When they are identified, a certain preliminary assessment is necessary. Research has shown, however, that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increases when initial idea generation (identification of alternatives) is separated from evaluation of the final idea.
This means that only after you have compiled a list of all the ideas should you begin to evaluate each alternative. When evaluating decisions, the manager determines the merits and demerits of each and the possible overall consequences. It is clear that any alternative comes with some negative aspects. As mentioned above, almost all important management decisions involve a trade-off.
To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which the likely results of each possible alternative can be measured. These standards are called the decision criteria established in step 2. Recalling the car example again, if a model cannot satisfy one or more of the criteria you set, it cannot be considered as a realistic alternative any further.
Note, however, that some of the criteria for choosing a car were quantitative, for example, the cost is not higher than 10 thousand dollars. Others, for example, ease of maintenance and visual attractiveness, require the collection of qualitative information. To evaluate and compare maintenance data, you should review related ratings in Consumer Society publications "Consumer Reports". To do the same with regard to visual attractiveness, you can create own scale ratings, identifying classes of very or moderately attractive, average and below average attractiveness, and unattractive models.
Difficulties can arise at this stage, since it is impossible to compare things if they are not of the same type - it makes no sense to directly compare apples with oranges. All decisions must be expressed in certain forms. It is desirable that this be a form in which the goal is expressed. In business, profit is a constant need and the highest priority, so decisions can be expressed in monetary terms and in the form of an estimate of their impact on profit. In a non-profit organization main goal, as a rule, is to provide the best service at the lowest cost. Therefore, monetary terms can be used to compare the consequences of decisions in similar organizations.
In our car example, you can express all the criteria in points on a scale from 1 to 5 in relation to factors of both a quantitative and qualitative nature. The least expensive car will receive a score of 5, and the most expensive - 1 point, etc., including efficiency and other requirements. It is likely that some of these criteria are more important than others. For example, you may consider visual appeal twice as important as price. If so, you should “weigh” your choice by multiplying by 2 points on visual attractiveness. Likewise, if your serviceability value is only 2/3 of the cost, you should multiply the serviceability rating by 2/3. Having passed each criterion through this procedure, you should add up the results for each model. The car that overall rating the highest score will be your obvious choice.
Note that when assessing possible solutions, the manager tries to predict what will happen in the future. The future is always uncertain. Many factors, including changes in the external environment and the impossibility of implementing the solution, can prevent the implementation of the plan. That's why important point evaluation is to determine the likelihood of each possible decision being implemented as intended. If the consequences of a decision are favorable, but the chance of its implementation is low, it may turn out to be a less desirable choice. The manager includes probability in the estimate, taking into account the degree of uncertainty or risk, which is discussed below in this chapter.
5. SELECTION OF AN ALTERNATIVE. If the problem has been correctly defined, and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, making a choice, that is, making a decision, is relatively simple. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences, as illustrated by the automobile example. However, if the problem is persistent and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if the information and analysis are subjective, it may be that no alternative is available. best choice. In this case the main role belongs to good judgment and experience.
Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, a manager, as a rule, does not dream of such a thing in practice. Researcher Herbert Simon points out that when solving a problem, a manager tends to engage in what he calls “satisficing” rather than “maximizing” behavior. Typically, the optimal solution is not discovered due to time constraints and the inability to consider all relevant information and alternatives. Because of these constraints, a manager will typically choose a course of action that is obviously acceptable, but not necessarily the best possible course of action.
IMPLEMENTATION. As Harrison emphasizes, “The real value of a decision only becomes apparent once it has been implemented.” According to Fig. 7.3., the process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action is of little value to the organization. To solve a problem or capitalize on an opportunity, the solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness in implementing a decision will increase if it is accepted by those affected by it. Recognition of a decision is rare, but it is automatic, even if it is clearly a good one.