What threatens the world with the nuclear missile potential of North Korea. A military expert assessed the nuclear potential of the DPRK as the DPRK is a state that has nuclear potential

March 28, 2013 at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAS) an international conference was held on the topic: "Restoration of the nuclear non-proliferation regime on the Korean Peninsula." It was attended by Russian and foreign scientists and experts in the field of international security and international relations, including the representative of the journal "Political Education", an expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists Alexander Perendzhiev.

Opening the scientific forum, Aleksey Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, drew the attention of its participants to the fact that the current political tension on the Korean Peninsula and the opening of the scientific forum are coincidences. "We didn't agree!" - joked Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences A.G. Arbatov.

Presentations were made by Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS Vasily Mikheev, Leading Researcher of the Institute for the USA and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Esin, Deputy Head of the Center for Defense Research of the RISS Vladimir Novikov.

At the beginning of his report, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.V. Mikheev noted that the key to understanding the relationship between the domestic and foreign policies of the DPRK leadership is the survival of the regime. The political and economic reforms carried out in Russia and China are perceived by the political elite of North Korea as a threat to its existence. Hence, Pyongyang's play on the contradictions between various world centers, including the ASEAN states.

According to V.V. Mikheev, North Korea does not have the technical capabilities to build a nuclear bomb. At the same time, it should be noted that in this case the positions of the United States, China and Russia completely coincide - a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable to anyone!

However, there is an ambiguity in the Chinese position on this issue. On the one hand, the Chinese say that the DPRK is our brothers and must be protected. On the other hand, Beijing believes that North Korea is a kind of buffer between China and the United States. In addition, there is also an opinion in the Celestial Empire that a feudal communist regime has been established in the DPRK, which does not want to change.

At present, the Chinese have equipped the border with North Korea, installed surveillance cameras there. As a result, the number of Korean defectors has significantly decreased, almost to zero. Beijing establishes tight control over North Korean assets in China. It is assumed that there are 1 billion dollars of North Korean deposits on Chinese territory.

The leadership of South Korea, and along with it many politicians in the world, believes that the path to ending the North Korean nuclear program is not through negotiations. For Pyongyang, nuclear weapons are the main export commodity. Therefore, in Seoul and in some other capitals, they believe that the only way to solve the North Korean problem is through regime change. But such a policy causes aggressiveness on the part of Pyongyang. Therefore, V.V. Mikheev, either you need to act tough against the DPRK, or follow the path of involving North Korea in international projects.

Why is the DPRK again now (February 12 this year) conducted nuclear tests? On the foreign policy side, Kim Jong-un has shown the world that he does not intend to change his father's regime. But still, domestic political aspects influenced the conduct of regular nuclear tests. The head of state decided to show his determination and counteract the emerging opinion in North Korean society that he was "not the right leader." That is, measures are being taken by Kim Jong-un to legitimize his regime in the eyes of the population and express the interests of other members of the polyelite who cling to the old.

Why is North Korea not afraid to conduct nuclear tests? First, Pyongyang believes that the confrontation between Russia and the US, between the US and China, will be eternal. Secondly, sanctions from Washington are not so “painful”. Sanctions from China could become the most sensitive, but Beijing has not yet threatened Pyongyang with such actions. The European Union is also unable to put pressure on the DPRK, and is interested in North Korean assets.

According to V.V. Mikheev, the command and control system of North Korea has collapsed and is currently incapacitated. North Korea "lives" at the expense of the "gray" and "black" economy. Demand for North Korean products is provided by those who have access to the West - part of the political elite, the highest ranks of the army, representatives of the highest stratum of the bureaucracy. In the DPRK, there is a "wild" stratification of society: 10-15% live very well, but 30% are below the poverty line, there are even cases of cannibalism.

From the point of view of the moral and psychological climate in North Korea, there is complete decomposition. "Golden" youth - future representatives of the political elite are addicted to foreign cigarettes, alcohol, drugs.

The internal political situation in the DPRK is unstable. Kim Jong-un is not a leader, like his father and grandfather, but a "roof" under which several groups are fighting for the distribution of resources.

Trying to find a way out of the current situation both around North Korea and within it, V.V. Mikheev proposes to strengthen the China-South Korea tie when influencing Pyongyang, to increase the effectiveness of coordination of the actions of the five member states on North Korea, to organize pressure on the leadership of the DPRK (“Pyongyang should be scared”).

In the course of answering questions, Vasily Mikheev explained that there are prerequisites for regime change in the DPRK. However, it is not yet clear what events will explode the situation. It is quite probable that military actions could become such events. But the leaders of the DPRK are unlikely to agree to this. In addition, North Korea has a mutual assistance agreement with China, although Beijing does not benefit from such a state of the political regime in Pyongyang. After all, next, in fact, the territory of an unstable state! But which of the states can benefit from such a state? Perhaps India, which, illegally, has nuclear weapons and is in a confrontation with China!

Colonel-General (retired) V.I. Yesin noted that Pyongyang "has something in its bosom." The latest nuclear test showed that North Korea is committed to developing a "compact nuclear weapon." It becomes obvious that the DPRK's renunciation of nuclear weapons is out of the question! In his report, military expert V.I. Yesin reminded the audience about the history of the formation of the nuclear program and the development of missile production in the DPRK, the role of the PRC and the USSR in these processes. In addition, the former chief of the main headquarters of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Soviet Union acquainted the audience with the possible equipping of the modern North Korean army with nuclear weapons, its combat capabilities, and the tactical and technical characteristics of the DPRK's weapons with nuclear warheads.

According to V.I. Yesin, North Korea is not yet able to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile in the near future. However, the development of such a missile can be significantly accelerated with the help of Iranian specialists.

Candidate of Economic Sciences V.E. Novikov continued the topic of cooperation between the DPRK and Iran in the development of a nuclear program and missile technologies, as well as the possible scientific potential of North Korea. Thus, according to the speaker, from 600 to 800 North Korean specialists were trained abroad, including China, Japan, and the USSR. The nuclear program of the DPRK is carefully classified. The North Koreans privately demonstrated 2,000 centrifuges to a Western correspondent, which indicates the seriousness of Pyongyang's intentions to possess nuclear weapons.

In the course of the ensuing discussion, the conference participants not only analyzed the problems inside the DPRK, its nuclear potential, the role of other states and international organizations in influencing the North Korean nuclear problem, but also ways to solve it. Despite the difficulty of the search, the majority on the scientific form liked the proposal to create a union state a la "Russia-Belarus" - China-DPRK, in order to mitigate the regime in Pyongyang.

Alexander Perendzhiev, a representative of the Political Education magazine, drew the attention of the audience to the fact that the problem in the end may not be WHEN the regime change in Pyongyang will occur, but HOW it will occur. Recently it became known about the cases of mass desertion of North Korean soldiers in the Chinese army. At the same time, representatives of various political groups are fighting for power around Kim Jong-un, but they are all dressed in military uniforms!

In addition, according to A.N. Perendzhieva, we must say not only that the DPRK is using the contradictions between the leading states of the world, but that world leaders are also playing the “North Korean card”. Thus, the United States, deploying a missile defense system in Asia, declares that it is acting against the nuclear threat from the DPRK. However, elements of the American missile defense system in the Asian part can also be used against China! And the Chinese leadership is aware of this danger! Therefore, most likely, the North Korean nuclear problem can only be solved in a comprehensive manner, changing the entire existing system of international security and international relations.

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In addition, the DPRK is extremely

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Good afternoon! By

Good afternoon!

Thank you for your attention!

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In my opinion, the chances that the DPRK

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Good afternoon! Though

Good afternoon!

Thank you for your attention!

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North Korea in the coming

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In my opinion, none

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In my opinion, none

In my opinion, there can be no talk of any military clashes between North and South Korea for one simple reason - it is not beneficial to anyone. (If you do not take into account the interests of the United States)

Such a conclusion can be drawn at least from the fact that Kim Jong-un has been the ruler for a relatively short time (since the end of 2011), and any politician in power wants to keep it as long as possible. But since the government is threatened by social destabilization associated with the loss of faith in its leadership abilities, the manifestation of the DPRK's readiness to respond to "military provocations" looks like an attempt aimed at restoring that very trust, as well as intimidating external "irritants". But I do not think that he is ready to start a full-scale war, since he must be aware of the 99% probability of his destruction.

Consequently, in my opinion, all the "hype" about the danger of the use of nuclear weapons by the DPRK is nothing more than the formation of public opinion in favor of America's deployment of its missile defense systems on Asian territory.

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In my opinion, the presence in the DPRK

In my opinion, the presence of nuclear weapons in the DPRK and the demonstration of its efficiency is just Kim Jong-un's way to keep power in his hands and prevent the DPRK from following the path of Syria. In modern North Korea, there are too many internal problems related to both governance in the state, the legitimacy of power, and economic aspects. In such a situation, the only way to keep power in his hands for Kim Jong-un is to build up and demonstrate military power in order to completely exclude the influence of the United States and its allies on the internal politics of the DPRK. Also, do not forget about the joint exercises of the United States and South Korea, which add fuel to the fire.
Tryakin Pavel, 4th year student of FPP im. Plekhanov.

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In my opinion, none

In my opinion, there can be no talk of any military clashes between North and South Korea for one simple reason - it is not beneficial to anyone. (If you do not take into account the interests of the United States)

Such a conclusion can be drawn at least from the fact that Kim Jong-un has been the ruler for a relatively short time (since the end of 2011), and any politician in power wants to keep it as long as possible. But since the government is threatened by social destabilization associated with the loss of faith in its leadership abilities, the manifestation of the DPRK's readiness to respond to "military provocations" looks like an attempt aimed at restoring that very trust, as well as intimidating external "irritants". But I do not think that he is ready to start a full-scale war, since he must be aware of the 99% probability of his destruction.

Consequently, in my opinion, all the "hype" about the danger of the use of nuclear weapons by the DPRK is nothing more than the formation of public opinion in favor of America's deployment of its missile defense systems on Asian territory.

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In addition, the DPRK is extremely

In addition, the DPRK is extremely dissatisfied with the sanctions of the UN Security Council, after North Korea conducted a series of underground tests, of a nuclear nature and the launch of rockets with a satellite. The provisions of the resolution include measures against North Korean political elite deposits, searches of diplomats, freezing of bank accounts and other financial measures. All this also to some extent influenced the tension of the situation - it creates discomfort for Pyongyang. BUT nevertheless, Kim Jong-un (as the grandson and son of a mighty dynasty) needs to show his people that he is able to pacify his overseas comrades. But I doubt that the DPRK is serious about fighting.

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Good afternoon! By

Good afternoon!

According to this article, there is an opinion that by squeezing the DPRK in tight, Russia may lose the main buyer of our weapons - India. Since India is in cooperation with the DPRK, and this hurts our economic pocket. The change of power in the DPRK will not happen by itself, a push is needed, the question arises who will carry out this push? The PRC will not do this without any special reason, Russia is not capable of taking any serious actions at the moment, only the United States remains. And most likely they will start because for many years they have been actively fighting for the presence of nuclear weapons. But what if, indeed, the United States is inflating this problem only because of placing missile defense systems closer to the borders of a strong enemy (PRC), by eliminating a weaker adversary (DPRK)? Or even worse, the United States has melded with the PRC in order for the missile defense ring to narrow as much as possible at the Russian borders?! And what is happening right now is just the tip of the iceberg? At the moment, we cannot give a fitting rebuff to either the United States or China.

The whole of Asia is on pins and needles, and resolving this issue through the armed forces can lead to a chain reaction, such as the "Arab Spring"! so you need to decide as quickly as possible and as decisively as possible, provided that the country that will make this fatal push will have to take full responsibility for what is happening!

Thank you for your attention!

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In my opinion, the chances that the DPRK

In my opinion, the chances that the DPRK will start a war are negligible.

In the DPRK, even without a war, there are plenty of problems (“wild” stratification of society: 10-15% of the population lives very well, but 30% is below the poverty line). Kim Jong-un acts as an "interstate blackmailer". All his threats are empty and, as before, are used to obtain certain benefits. He simply enhances his reputation as a strong and independent leader, and the easiest way to rally his people in the face of an alien threat, which is the United States.

A change of power, in my opinion, is also unlikely. Even if it happens, what's next? Unification of Korea? Neither the United States nor China needs a unified Korea.
A nuclear North Korea is unacceptable to anyone! Fully agree with this statement. The nuclear club should not expand. With each new member, the threat to international security increases.

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Good afternoon! Though

Good afternoon!

Although there is an opinion that the DPRK will not start hostilities, because. too weak, but it seems to me that if the United States presses hard, Kim's nerves will not be able to withstand it. It's like with a rat, if he is squeezed into a corner, he will beat until he loses his pulse! And Kim Jong-un may be a swindler, but he will not disgrace the honor of his family, and he certainly will not give up without a fight! And as for nuclear weapons, it certainly cannot be given to weak and politically unstable states!

Thank you for your attention!

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North Korea in the coming

North Korea may increase its arsenal to 48 nuclear weapons in the next few years. This is stated in a report published on Friday by the US Institute of Science and International Security. Satellite images show that Pyongyang is building a light water nuclear reactor, which, according to official data, will be used for peaceful purposes. However, it can also produce weapons-grade plutonium, the report notes. In addition, a uranium enrichment plant is being built in North Korea to produce fuel for a new light water reactor. However, there are speculations that the plant could be used by the North Korean leadership to produce highly enriched uranium. The authors of the report argue that if the light water reactor is not used to produce weapons-grade plutonium, the DPRK's nuclear arsenal by 2016 will likely be between 14 and 25 units of nuclear weapons. weapons. If Pyongyang produces weapons-grade plutonium in a light water reactor and highly enriched uranium at a new plant, then by the end of 2016, the North Korean leadership will already have 28 to 39 nuclear weapons at its disposal. In addition, some experts believe that the DPRK has another secret facility for the production of highly enriched uranium. If these data are true, then the nuclear arsenal of North Korea by the end of 2016 may be from 37 to 48 units, according to Voice of Russia. The authors of the report find it difficult to determine whether the DPRK has carriers for the delivery of nuclear charges. that North Korea continues to circumvent sanctions bans imposed earlier by the UN Security Council in response to its nuclear and missile tests. As noted in the report of a group of experts of the world organization, the violations, in particular, include the illegal supply of weapons and luxury goods to North Korea. According to experts, this proves that Pyongyang actively continues to ignore the measures provided for in the UN Security Council resolutions. In April of this year, North Korea declared itself a nuclear power. A corresponding amendment was made to the constitution. Analysts attribute this change to Pyongyang's desire to achieve international recognition as a nuclear power. Note that the DPRK periodically makes statements about conducting a new nuclear test. In addition, the North Korean authorities announced that they may take measures in "self-defense" in response to diplomatic pressure from the United States after the launch of the DPRK satellite. According to a spokesman for the country's foreign ministry, Pyongyang will "develop its nuclear deterrent as long as the United States continues its hostile policy."

Tryakin Pavel, 4th year student of FPP im. Plekhanov.

Consequently, in my opinion, all the "hype" about the danger of the use of nuclear weapons by the DPRK is nothing more than the formation of public opinion in favor of America's deployment of its missile defense systems on Asian territory.

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Does North Korea have the resource base for a nuclear program?

Nuclear weapons can be made from either weapons-grade plutonium (plutonium-239) or highly enriched uranium (uranium-235). The first two nuclear tests - in 2006 and 2009 - the DPRK conducted using charges made from weapons-grade plutonium, writes the American non-governmental Arms Control Association. North Korea's key nuclear facility, which houses most of the country's equipment, research and development related to both peaceful and military nuclear activities, is the Yenbyon Center, located 90 km north of Pyongyang. In 1986, a gas-graphite reactor was launched there, and its experts consider it the main source of weapons-grade plutonium (capable of producing up to 6 kg per year).

How much weapons-grade plutonium the DPRK has accumulated is unknown. According to 2008 data provided by the Nuclear Threat Initiative website, North Korea could have received 39 kg of weapons-grade plutonium. However, Aleksey Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, believes that as of 2017, Pyongyang has approximately 50-60 kg of weapons-grade plutonium.

North Korea admitted in 2016 that it was producing highly enriched uranium from low-enriched uranium, the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said. The plant, opened in 2010, is capable of producing 2 tons of low-enriched uranium or about 40 kg of highly enriched uranium annually, according to the Arms Control Association. Alexey Arbatov says that North Korea acquires nuclear technologies, materials and even specialists on the global black market. “There is a huge market for nuclear materials – low-enriched uranium, uranium ore. Having certain technologies, it is possible to make highly enriched uranium from low-enriched uranium,” says Arbatov.

Total: reserves of weapons-grade plutonium - 39-60 kg, the possibility of producing weapons-grade plutonium - 6 kg per year, highly enriched uranium - up to 40 kg per year.

How many ready-made nuclear warheads does North Korea have?

On September 3, the DPRK announced that it had tested a thermonuclear bomb (the sixth nuclear test in the history of the country, the first took place in 2006). However, there is no independent confirmation of this information. International experts reported that on the day of the test, an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 on the Richter scale occurred in the DPRK. According to the estimates of the Norwegian Foundation for Geological and Physical Research (NORSAR), the power of the underground explosion that caused it was 120 kt of TNT. To make sure that it was the hydrogen bomb that was tested, it is possible only by taking samples of the rocks in the test area, the researchers point out. ​

No matter what type of bomb Pyongyang has tested, NORSAR notes that the power of the DPRK's explosive devices increases with each new test. If the charge power during the first test in 2006 was about 1 kt in TNT equivalent, then ten years later, in September 2016, it reached about 20 kt, the report says.

According to SIPRI, North Korea has 10-20 nuclear warheads. Bloomberg, citing American military analysts, claims that the arsenal of the DPRK has 60 nuclear warheads. ​

In total: the number of nuclear warheads is at least ten, the yield is at least 20 kt in TNT equivalent.

What means of delivery of nuclear weapons does the DPRK have?

North Korea has been developing a missile program since the 1960s. Assistance in this was provided by the USSR, China, and the countries of the Middle East. The DPRK had 15 types of ballistic missiles in August 2017, according to the Arms Control Association.

The Nodon-1 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) is capable of covering a distance of about 1.5 thousand km, that is, it is capable of hitting Japan and South Korea. Another MRBM, "Musudan", theoretically can overcome up to 4 thousand km (its tests were not successful). Tested in May 2017, the Hwaseong-12 can hit targets within a radius of about 4.5 thousand km (American Guam is located 3.4 thousand km from the DPRK). The intercontinental ballistic missile "Hwaseong-14", first tested in July 2017, is capable of delivering a charge over a distance of more than 10 thousand km, that is, it can reach US limits. According to some information, the missiles of these modifications are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

In addition, the DPRK is developing KN-08 and KN-14 missiles, the flight range of which can be up to 11.5 thousand km.

The exact number of missiles in the strategic forces of the North Korean army is unknown. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative website, North Korea has about 200 Nodong missiles. , however, independent experts consider this number too high.

Alexei Arbatov, in a conversation with RBC, said that North Korea has from 80 to 100 ballistic missiles of various ranges (from 100-200 km to 1000-1500 km).

According to Vasily Kashin, a senior researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, according to the most conservative estimates, the DPRK has only a few Hwasons, and it is unlikely that their number reaches even ten. These missiles are still under development and testing, which means that they have not yet been put into service and are not ready for mass production. In addition, the DPRK simply will not be able to support more than 20-30 Hwaseong-12 and Hwaseong-14 missiles, even if the tests are completed and mass production begins. The maintenance of such missiles is very expensive: in addition to production, they require a certain infrastructure for maintenance and security, explains Kashin. North Korea has about 100 rockets of the Nodon family, the expert believes.

Total: about 100 missiles with a flight range of up to 1.5 thousand km, less than ten missiles with a flight range of more than 4 thousand km.

Are North Korea's neighbors capable of defending themselves?

In response to the continuing threat from the DPRK, South Korea began deploying the US THAAD missile defense system. The US began deploying THAADs to South Korea in March of this year and has deployed two of at least six planned.

THAAD in South Korea is not yet able to cover the Seoul agglomeration, where 25 million people live, that is, half of the country's population, says Kashin. “It covers 60% of the territories of South Korea, so its usefulness has always raised certain doubts,” the expert says. Given the fact that only two out of six complexes have been deployed so far, Seoul's vulnerability is obvious, but if the remaining four complexes are located closer to the demilitarized zone, that is, to the border between the DPRK and South Korea, then the chances of minimizing the North Korean threat will increase, Kashin believes.

Japan, after the July tests of the DPRK, also decided to strengthen its defenses. Tokyo is considering acquiring new installations for the U.S. sea-based Aegis anti-missile system and deploying its sister system, Aegis Ashore, to the coast to bolster defenses.

Japan already has a two-layer missile defense system - the naval Aegis and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3, or PAC-3 systems, equipped with surface-to-air missiles to hit targets at an altitude of 12 km. The Patriot complex will be activated if the Aegis system fails to intercept aircraft, Aegis Ashore increases the likelihood of a successful interception of missiles.

If the US missile defense system can intercept a missile with a nuclear warhead, it will simply collapse, but it will release radioactive material, explains Kashin. “A very complex process must take place in order for a nuclear charge to be detonated. If the charge and the rocket are destroyed, then a release of radioactive material will occur. The interception itself takes place at an altitude of several tens of kilometers, so the consequences of this release will be insignificant. The contamination of the area will not be very strong, ”the expert concludes.​

However, even under ideal conditions, the probability of North Korean missiles being intercepted by American missile defense systems in Japan and South Korea "will not be 100%, because most of the tests were carried out in a situation far from combat," Kashin said. North Korea can launch dozens of missiles at once, and it is hardly possible to intercept such a salvo. “It is impossible to determine among the missiles going in this salvo which of them have a nuclear warhead and which one has a conventional warhead. Accordingly, the likelihood that you will intercept a nuclear missile is low, ”the expert concludes.

Even if Pyongyang strikes Japan, the country will not cease to exist and will not turn into ashes despite the threats of the DPRK, notes Dmitry Streltsov, a Japanologist, head of the Department of Oriental Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO. However, in his opinion, in the event of a strike on Japan, “we can talk about major damage” and colossal human casualties, given the high population density. However, this does not mean at all that "the islands will sink into the sea," as Kim Jong-un promised.

South Korea is in a more difficult position: the DPRK can use conventional weapons to attack it. For example, the heavy artillery of North Korea, stationed at the very border, is capable of causing irreparable damage to Seoul in the very first hours of the war. However, we are not talking about the simultaneous destruction of South Korea. Finally, there are reasonable doubts about the ability of the DPRK to inflict at least some damage on the island of Guam or the US continental territory with the help of nuclear missiles, not to mention "wipe the US into ashes and darkness."

Nuclear tests of the DPRK

North Korea conducted the first nuclear tests, the explosion yield was about 1 kt of TNT. The tests triggered an earthquake measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale.

The power of the explosion is about 5 kt in TNT equivalent. The magnitude of the earthquake after testing is 4.7 on the Richter scale.

The power of the third underground nuclear explosion was 10-15 kt, the tests caused an earthquake with a magnitude of about 5 on the Richter scale. North Korean authorities said they have tested a miniature nuclear weapon that can be placed on ballistic missiles of different ranges.

Pyongyang announced its fourth nuclear test, a hydrogen bomb. Its thickness, according to various sources, ranged from 15 to 20 kt. The explosion triggered an earthquake of magnitude 5 on the Richter scale.

The power of the fifth test was, according to the American Arms Control Association, 20-25 kt in TNT equivalent. The magnitude of the earthquake after the explosion reached 5.2 on the Richter scale.

The North Korean authorities said that during the sixth nuclear test they again used a hydrogen bomb. According to the NORSAR Foundation, an explosion with a capacity of about 120 kt of TNT led to an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 on the Richter scale.

Sources: Norwegian Foundation for Geological and Physical Research, American Arms Control Association

Kim Jong-un, unlike his relatives and predecessors, does not at all blackmail the world with nuclear developments, but creates a real nuclear missile arsenal.

Explosion for the holiday

On September 9, 2017, North Korea marked the 69th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea with another nuclear test.

At first, several countries at once recorded increased seismic activity in North Korea, which could mean an explosion of a nuclear charge.

Then the fact of conducting nuclear tests was officially confirmed by Pyongyang. "North Korea will continue to take measures to strengthen the national nuclear forces in quantitative and qualitative terms, in order to ensure the dignity and right to exist of the country in the face of the growing nuclear threat from the United States," according to a statement released by the official North Korean news agency KCNA.

South Korea, the US and Japan have initiated an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which is expected to raise the issue of tightening sanctions against Pyongyang.

The problem, however, is that the sanctions on the DPRK are practically non-existent. Moreover, significant progress is being made in North Korea's nuclear missile program.

How it all began

Back in the years of the Korean War, the US command considered the possibility of launching nuclear strikes on the North. Although these plans were not realized, the North Korean leadership was interested in gaining access to technologies that would allow the creation of weapons of this type.

The USSR and China, acting as allies of the DPRK, were cool about these plans.

Nevertheless, in 1965, with the help of Soviet and Chinese specialists, a nuclear research center was founded in Yongbyon, where the Soviet nuclear reactor IRT-2000 was installed. Initially, it was assumed that the reactor would be used for work exclusively on peaceful programs.

In the 1970s, Pyongyang, relying on the support of China, began the first work on the creation of nuclear weapons.

In 1985, the Soviet Union got the DPRK to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In exchange for this, the USSR supplied Korea with a gas-graphite research reactor with a capacity of 5 MW. An agreement was also signed on the construction of a nuclear power plant in North Korea with four light water reactors of the VVER-440 type.

President Clinton's failed war

The collapse of the Soviet Union changed the situation in the world. The West and South Korea expected the imminent fall of the North Korean regime, while at the same time conducting peace negotiations with it, counting on the liberalization of the political system and its dismantling according to the version of Eastern Europe.

The United States, in exchange for abandoning its nuclear program, promised Pyongyang economic and technical assistance in the development of the peaceful atom. North Korea responded by agreeing to allow IAEA inspectors into its nuclear facilities.

Relations began to deteriorate sharply after IAEA inspectors suspected of concealing a certain amount of plutonium. Based on this, the IAEA demanded a special inspection of two spent nuclear fuel storage facilities, which were not declared, but was refused, motivated by the fact that the facilities have nothing to do with the nuclear program and are of a military nature.

As a result, in March 1993, the DPRK announced its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Negotiations with the United States made it possible to slow down this process, but on June 13, 1994, North Korea not only abandoned the treaty, but also withdrew from the IAEA.

During this period, according to Newsweek magazine in 2006, the administration of US President Bill Clinton ordered to study the issue of conducting a military operation against North Korea. The military report stated that the operation would cost $100 billion, and the South Korean and US forces would lose about a million people, with the loss of the US army amounting to at least 100,000 people killed.

As a result, the United States again returned to the tactics of negotiations.

Threats and promises

In late 1994, with the assistance of former US President Jimmy Carter, a "framework agreement" was reached, according to which North Korea pledged to abandon the nuclear weapons program in exchange for deliveries of fuel oil and the creation of two new nuclear reactors on light water, which cannot be used for work on nuclear weapons.

For several years, stability was established. Both sides, however, fulfilled their obligations only partially, but the internal difficulties in the DPRK and the distraction of the United States on other problems ensured a stable situation.

A new escalation began in 2002, when President George W. Bush came to power in the United States.

In January 2002, in his speech, Bush included the DPRK in the so-called "axis of evil." Together with the intention to create a global missile defense system, this caused serious concern in Pyongyang. The North Korean leadership did not want to share the fate of Iraq.

In 2003, negotiations began on the nuclear program of the DPRK with the participation of China, the United States, Russia, South Korea and Japan.

No real progress has been made on them. The aggressive policy of the United States gave rise to the confidence in the DPRK that it was possible to ensure its own security only if it had its own atomic bomb.

In North Korea, they did not particularly hide the fact that research work on nuclear topics continues.

Bomb: Birth

Exactly 12 years ago, on September 9, 2004, a strong explosion was recorded by a South Korean reconnaissance satellite in a remote region of the DPRK (Yangando Province), not far from the border with China. A crater visible from space remained at the site of the explosion, and a huge mushroom cloud with a diameter of about four kilometers grew over the scene.

On September 13, the DPRK authorities explained the appearance of a cloud similar to a nuclear mushroom by explosive work during the construction of the Samsu hydroelectric power station.

Neither South Korean nor American experts have confirmed that it really was a nuclear explosion.

Western experts believed that the DPRK did not have the necessary resources and technologies to create a full-fledged atomic bomb, and we were talking about a potential rather than an immediate danger.

On September 28, 2004, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the DPRK stated at a session of the UN General Assembly that North Korea had already turned enriched uranium obtained from 8,000 reprocessed fuel rods from its nuclear reactor into a nuclear weapon. He stressed that the DPRK had no other choice in creating a nuclear deterrence force at a time when the United States declared its goal the destruction of the DPRK and threatened with preventive nuclear strikes.

On February 10, 2005, the DPRK Foreign Ministry for the first time officially announced the creation of atomic weapons in the country. The world treated this statement as another Pyongyang bluff.

A year and a half later, on October 9, 2006, the DPRK announced for the first time that it had successfully tested a nuclear charge, and its preparation was publicly announced before that. The low power of the charge (0.5 kilotons) raised doubts that it was a nuclear device, and not ordinary TNT.

Speed ​​up in North Korean

On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted another nuclear test. The power of the underground nuclear explosion, according to the Russian military, ranged from 10 to 20 kilotons.

Four years later, on February 12, 2013, North Korea conducted another atomic bomb test.

Despite the adoption of new sanctions against the DPRK, the opinion remained that Pyongyang was far from creating powerful devices that could be used as real weapons.

On December 10, 2015, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced that his country had a hydrogen bomb, which meant a new step in the creation of nuclear weapons. On January 6, 2016, another test explosion was carried out, which the DPRK announced as a test of a hydrogen bomb.

South Korean sources call the current test the most powerful in the entire nuclear program of the DPRK. It is also noteworthy that the interval between tests turned out to be the shortest in all the years, which indicates that Pyongyang has made serious progress in terms of improving technology.

More importantly, North Korea said the test was part of the development of nuclear warheads that could be placed on ballistic missiles.

If this is true, then official Pyongyang has come close to creating a real combat nuclear weapon, which is fundamentally changing the situation in the region.

Rockets fly farther

Media reports about the situation in the DPRK, often coming from South Korean sources, give the wrong impression of North Korea. Despite the poverty of the population and other problems, this country is not backward. There are quite enough specialists in advanced industries, including nuclear and missile technologies.

The inhabitants talk about the tests of North Korean missiles with a chuckle - it exploded again, again it did not fly, it fell again.

Military experts, who are monitoring the situation, say that North Korean specialists have made a powerful technological breakthrough in recent years.

By 2016, the DPRK had created a mobile single-stage liquid-propellant ballistic missile "Hwaseong-10" with a firing range of about three thousand kilometers.

In the summer of this year, the Pukkykson-1 rocket was successfully tested. This solid-propellant missile is designed to arm submarines. Its successful launch was made from a submarine of the DPRK Navy.

This does not fit at all with the idea of ​​North Korea as a country with rusty old Soviet planes and Chinese tanks.

Experts pay attention - the number of tests in the DPRK in recent years has been growing rapidly, and the technique is becoming more and more complicated.

Within a few years, North Korea is able to create a missile with a range of up to 5000 km, and then a full-fledged intercontinental ballistic missile. Moreover, it will be equipped with a real nuclear warhead.

What to do with North Korea?

There is little doubt that sanctions against the DPRK will be tightened. But previous experience says that this does not affect Pyongyang in any way.

Moreover, Comrade Kim Jong-un, unlike his relatives and predecessors, does not at all blackmail the world with nuclear developments, but creates a real nuclear missile arsenal.

Moreover, even the frank irritation of the main ally, Beijing, which is not interested in escalating the situation in the region, does not stop him.

The question arises: what can be done with North Korea? Even those who perceive Comrade Kim's regime extremely negatively are convinced that it will not be possible to stir up the situation from within. Neither friend nor foe can convince Pyongyang to "behave well".

A military operation against North Korea today will cost the United States much more than it did in the early 1990s, when the Clinton administration made similar plans. In addition, neither Russia nor China will allow a war near their borders, which has every prospect of turning into the Third World War.

Theoretically, Pyongyang could satisfy the guarantees that ensure the preservation of the regime and the absence of attempts to dismantle it.

But recent history teaches that the only such guarantee in the modern world is the "nuclear baton" that North Korea is working on.

On March 28, 2013, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAS) hosted an international conference on the topic: "Restoration of the nuclear non-proliferation regime on the Korean Peninsula." It was attended by Russian and foreign scientists and experts in the field of international security and international relations, including expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists Alexander Perendzhiev.

Opening the scientific forum, Aleksey Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, drew the attention of its participants to the fact that the current political tension on the Korean Peninsula and the opening of the scientific forum are coincidences.

"We didn't agree!" - joked Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences A.G. Arbatov. Presentations were made by Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS Vasily Mikheev, Leading Researcher of the Institute for the USA and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Esin, Deputy Head of the Center for Defense Research of the RISS Vladimir Novikov.

At the beginning of his report, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.V. Mikheev noted that the key to understanding the relationship between the domestic and foreign policies of the DPRK leadership is the survival of the regime. The political and economic reforms carried out in Russia and China are perceived by the political elite of North Korea as a threat to its existence. Hence, Pyongyang's play on the contradictions between various world centers, including the ASEAN states. According to V.V. Mikheev, North Korea does not have the technical capabilities to build a nuclear bomb. At the same time, it should be noted that in this case the positions of the United States, China and Russia completely coincide - a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable to anyone!

However, there is an ambiguity in the Chinese position on this issue. On the one hand, the Chinese say that the DPRK is our brothers and must be protected. On the other hand, Beijing believes that North Korea is a kind of buffer between China and the United States. In addition, there is also an opinion in the Celestial Empire that a feudal communist regime has been established in the DPRK, which does not want to change. At present, the Chinese have equipped the border with North Korea, installed surveillance cameras there. As a result, the number of Korean defectors has significantly decreased, almost to zero. Beijing establishes tight control over North Korean assets in China. It is assumed that there are 1 billion dollars of North Korean deposits on Chinese territory.

The leadership of South Korea, and along with it many politicians in the world, believes that the path to ending the North Korean nuclear program is not through negotiations. For Pyongyang, nuclear weapons are the main export commodity. Therefore, in Seoul and in some other capitals, they believe that the only way to solve the North Korean problem is through regime change. But such a policy causes aggressiveness on the part of Pyongyang. Therefore, V.V. Mikheev, either you need to act tough against the DPRK, or follow the path of involving North Korea in international projects.

Why did the DPRK conduct nuclear tests again recently? On the foreign policy side, Kim Jong-un has shown the world that he does not intend to change his father's regime. But still, domestic political aspects influenced the conduct of regular nuclear tests. The head of state decided to show his determination and counteract the emerging opinion in North Korean society that he was "not the right leader." That is, measures are being taken by Kim Jong-un to legitimize his regime in the eyes of the population and express the interests of other members of the polyelite who cling to the old.

Why is North Korea not afraid to conduct nuclear tests? First, Pyongyang believes that the confrontation between Russia and the US, between the US and China, will be eternal. Secondly, sanctions from Washington are not so “painful”. Sanctions from China could become the most sensitive, but Beijing has not yet threatened Pyongyang with such actions. The European Union is also unable to put pressure on the DPRK, and is interested in North Korean assets. According to V.V. Mikheev, the command and control system of North Korea has collapsed and is currently incapacitated. North Korea "lives" at the expense of the "gray" and "black" economy. Demand for North Korean products is provided by those who have access to the West - part of the political elite, the highest ranks of the army, representatives of the highest stratum of the bureaucracy.

In the DPRK, there is a "wild" stratification of society: 10-15% live very well, but 30% are below the poverty line, there are even cases of cannibalism. From the point of view of the moral and psychological climate in North Korea, there is complete decomposition. "Golden" youth - future representatives of the political elite are addicted to foreign cigarettes, alcohol, drugs. The internal political situation in the DPRK is unstable. Kim Jong-un is not a leader, like his father and grandfather, but a "roof" under which several groups are fighting for the distribution of resources. Trying to find a way out of the current situation both around North Korea and within it, V.V. Mikheev proposes to strengthen the China-South Korea tie when influencing Pyongyang, to increase the effectiveness of coordination of the actions of the five member states on North Korea, to organize pressure on the leadership of the DPRK (“Pyongyang should be scared”). In the course of answering questions, Vasily Mikheev explained that there are prerequisites for regime change in the DPRK. However, it is not yet clear what events will explode the situation. It is quite probable that military actions could become such events. But the leaders of the DPRK are unlikely to agree to this. In addition, North Korea has a mutual assistance agreement with China, although Beijing does not benefit from such a state of the political regime in Pyongyang. After all, next, in fact, the territory of an unstable state!

But which of the states can benefit from such a state? Perhaps India, which, illegally, has nuclear weapons and is in a confrontation with China!

Retired Colonel General V.I. Yesin noted that Pyongyang "has something in its bosom." The latest nuclear test showed that North Korea is committed to developing a "compact nuclear weapon." It becomes obvious that the DPRK's renunciation of nuclear weapons is out of the question! In his report, military expert V.I. Yesin reminded the audience about the history of the formation of the nuclear program and the development of missile production in the DPRK, the role of the PRC and the USSR in these processes. In addition, the former chief of the main headquarters of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Soviet Union acquainted the audience with the possible equipping of the modern North Korean army with nuclear weapons, its combat capabilities, and the tactical and technical characteristics of the DPRK's weapons with nuclear warheads.

According to V.I. Yesin, North Korea is not yet able to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile in the near future. However, the development of such a missile can be significantly accelerated with the help of Iranian specialists.

Candidate of Economic Sciences V.E. Novikov continued the topic of cooperation between the DPRK and Iran in the development of a nuclear program and missile technologies, as well as the possible scientific potential of North Korea. Thus, according to the speaker, from 600 to 800 North Korean specialists were trained abroad, including China, Japan, and the USSR. The nuclear program of the DPRK is carefully classified. The North Koreans privately demonstrated 2,000 centrifuges to a Western correspondent, which indicates the seriousness of Pyongyang's intentions to possess nuclear weapons.

In the course of the ensuing discussion, the conference participants not only analyzed the problems inside the DPRK, its nuclear potential, the role of other states and international organizations in influencing the North Korean nuclear problem, but also ways to solve it. Despite the difficulty of the search, the majority on the scientific form liked the proposal to create a union state a la "Russia-Belarus" - China-DPRK, in order to mitigate the regime in Pyongyang.

Alexander Perendzhiev, a spokesman for the Russia's Weapons news agency, drew the attention of the audience to the fact that the problem in the end may not be WHEN the regime change in Pyongyang will occur, but HOW it will occur. Recently it became known about the cases of mass desertion of North Korean soldiers in the Chinese army. At the same time, representatives of various political groups are fighting for power around Kim Jong-un, but they are all dressed in military uniforms! In addition, according to A.N. Perendzhieva, we must say not only that the DPRK is using the contradictions between the leading states of the world, but that world leaders are also playing the “North Korean card”. Thus, the United States, deploying a missile defense system in Asia, declares that it is acting against the nuclear threat from the DPRK. However, elements of the American missile defense system in the Asian part can also be used against China! And the Chinese leadership is aware of this danger! Therefore, most likely, the North Korean nuclear problem can only be solved in a comprehensive manner, changing the entire existing system of international security and international relations.

Nuclear (or atomic) weapons are called the entire nuclear arsenal, its means of transportation and hardware control. Nuclear weapons are classified as weapons of mass destruction.

The principle of the explosive effect of rusty death weapons is based on the use of the properties of nuclear energy, which is released due to nuclear or thermonuclear reactions.

Types of nuclear weapons

All existing nuclear weapons in the world are divided into two types:

• atomic: an explosive device of a single-phase type, the release of energy in which occurs during the fission of heavy nuclei of plutonium or 235 uranium;
• thermonuclear (hydrogen): explosive device of two-phase type. In the first phase of the action, the energy output occurs due to the fission of heavy nuclei, in the second phase of the action, the phase of thermonuclear fusion is connected to the fission reaction. The proportional composition of reactions determines the type of this weapon.

History of occurrence

The year 1889 was marked in the world of science by the discovery of the Curie couple: in uranium they discovered a new substance that released a large amount of energy.

In subsequent years, E. Rutherford studied the basic properties of the atom, E. Walton and his colleague D. Cockcroft were the first in the world to split the atomic nucleus.

So, in 1934, the scientist Leo Szilard registered a patent for the atomic bomb, setting off a wave of massive destruction around the world.

The reason for the creation of atomic weapons is simple: world domination, intimidation and destruction of enemies. During World War II, research and development was carried out in Germany, the Soviet Union and the United States: the three largest and most powerful countries that took part in the war, sought to achieve victory at any cost. And if during the Second World War this weapon did not become a key factor in victory, in the future it was used more than once in other wars.

Nuclear weapon countries

The group of countries that currently possess nuclear weapons is conventionally called the "Nuclear Club". Here is the list of club members:

• Legitimate in the international legal field

1. USA;
2. Russia (which acquired the weapons of the USSR after the collapse of a great power);
3. France;
4. United Kingdom;
5. China.

• Illegitimate

1. India;
2. North Korea;
3. Pakistan.

Officially, Israel is not the owner of nuclear weapons, but the world community is inclined to think that Israel has weapons of its own design.

But, this list is not complete. Many countries of the world had nuclear programs, but later abandoned them or are working on them at the present time. In some countries, such weapons are supplied by other powers, for example, the United States. The exact number of weapons in the world is not taken into account, approximately 20,500 nuclear warheads are dispersed around the world.

In 1968, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was signed, and in 1986, the Treaty on the Ban on Nuclear Tests. But not all countries have signed and ratified these documents (legally legalized). So the threat to the world still exists.

Strange as it may sound, but today nuclear weapons are a guarantee of peace, a deterrent that protects against attack, which is why many countries are so eager to get hold of them.

USA

Submarine-based ballistic missiles form the basis of the US nuclear arsenal.

To date, the United States has 1,654 warheads. The United States is armed with bombs, warheads, shells for use in aviation, submarines, and artillery.

After the end of World War II, more than 66,000 bombs and warheads were produced in the United States; in 1997, the production of new nuclear weapons was completely stopped.

In 2010, there were more than 5,000 weapons in the US arsenal, but by 2013 their number had decreased to 1,654 units as part of a program to reduce the country's nuclear potential. As the unofficial leader of the world, the United States has the status of an old-timer and, according to the treaty of 1968, is among the 5 countries legally possessing nuclear weapons.

the Russian Federation

Today, Russia has 1,480 warheads and 367 nuclear launchers at its disposal.

The country owns ammunition intended for use in the missile forces, naval strategic forces and strategic aviation forces.

Over the past 10 years, Russia's ammunition has significantly decreased (up to 12% per year) due to the signing of a treaty on mutual disarmament: by the end of 2012, reduce the number of weapons by two-thirds.

Today, Russia is one of the oldest members of the 1968 nuclear weapons treaty (as the only successor to the USSR), possessing them legally. However, the current political and economic situation in the world opposes the country to the United States and the countries of Europe, the presence of such a dangerous arsenal makes it possible in many respects to defend an independent position in geopolitical issues.

France

Today, France is armed with about 300 strategic warheads for use on submarines, as well as about 60 tactical multiprocessors for airborne use. France for a long time sought independence in the matter of its own weapons: it developed its own supercomputer, conducted nuclear tests until 1998. After that, nuclear weapons in France were not developed and tested.

United Kingdom

The UK owns 225 nuclear warheads, of which more than 160 are on alert and deployed on submarines. Data on the armament of the British army is practically absent due to one of the principles of the country's military policy: not to disclose the exact quantity and quality of the means presented in the arsenal. Britain does not seek to increase its nuclear stockpile, but will not reduce it either: it has a policy of deterring allied and neutral states from the use of lethal weapons.

China

Estimates by US scientists show that China has about 240 warheads, but official figures say that China has about 40 intercontinental missiles located in artillery and submarines, as well as about 1,000 short-range missiles.

The Chinese government has not disclosed exact numbers on the country's arsenal, saying that the number of nuclear weapons will be kept at a minimum safe level.

In addition, China declares that it cannot be the first to use weapons, and that it will not be used against non-nuclear countries. The world community treats such statements positively.

India

According to the assessment of the world community, India owns nuclear weapons unofficially. It has thermonuclear and nuclear warheads. Today, India has about 30 nuclear warheads in its arsenal and enough materials to make another 90 bombs. Also, there are short-range missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, and extended-range missiles. Possessing nuclear weapons illegally, India does not make official statements regarding its policy on nuclear weapons, which causes a negative reaction from the world community.

Pakistan

Pakistan is armed with up to 200 nuclear warheads, according to unofficial data. There is no exact data on the type of weapon. The public reaction to the testing of nuclear weapons by this country was as harsh as possible: economic sanctions were imposed on Pakistan by almost all the major countries of the world, except for Saudi Arabia, which supplied the country with an average of 50,000 barrels of oil daily.

North Korea

Officially, North Korea is a country with nuclear weapons: in 2012, the country's constitution was amended. The country is armed with single-stage medium-range missiles, the Musudan mobile missile system. The international community reacted extremely negatively to the fact of creating and testing weapons: long six-party negotiations continue to this day, and an economic embargo has been imposed on the country. But the DPRK is in no hurry to abandon the creation of means to ensure its own security.

Arms control

Nuclear weapons are one of the worst ways to destroy the population and economy of warring countries, a weapon that destroys everything in its path.

Understanding and realizing the dangers of the presence of such weapons of destruction, the authorities of many countries (especially the five leaders of the "Nuclear Club") are taking various measures to reduce the number of these weapons and guarantee their non-use.

Thus, the United States and Russia have voluntarily reduced the number of nuclear weapons.

All modern wars are fought for the right to control and use energy resources. Here's where they are.