Effective ways to solve these problems. On the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth. Effective ways to solve these problems What changes are taking place in the climate

Climate changes are long-term (over 10 years) directed or rhythmic changes in climatic conditions on the Earth as a whole or in its large regions. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in recent decades, the average annual temperature has been increasing abnormally rapidly.
The problem of global climate change is one of the key environmental problems of the Earth. The cause of climate change is the dynamic processes on the planet, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities.

What evidence is there for climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable even without instruments) - an increase in the average global temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and more destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia… (see also “5 Climate Prophecies That Came True”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, there is a cooling.
If the climate has changed before, why is it now a problem?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), with a global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about + 14 ° C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been, one more factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the impact of which on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driver of climate is the Sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.
In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All of these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climatic cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity leads to a decrease).
Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increase in the greenhouse effect, the impact of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is the delay by the Earth's atmosphere of the planet's thermal radiation. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed on the scale of the Earth: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the Earth's surface, but the thermal energy emitted by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth's atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to delay long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.
Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's heat balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if it were not for it, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 ° C not +14°C, as it is now, but -17°C.
The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe it our lives.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a violation of the heat balance of the Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of the development of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases per year into the atmosphere.

Climatic changes in Russia in the XX century. generally in line with global trends. For example, the 1990s also turned out to be the hottest for a very long time. and the beginning of the 21st century, especially in Western and Central Siberia.
An interesting forecast of climatic changes expected in the territory of the former USSR until the middle of the 21st century was published by A. A. Velichko. You can get acquainted with this forecast, prepared by the laboratory of evolutionary geography of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, using the maps of the consequences of global warming and the levels of destabilization of geosystems on the territory of the former USSR compiled by the same laboratory.

Other forecasts have also been published. According to them, climate warming will generally have a favorable effect on the North of Russia, where living conditions will change for the better. However, the movement of the southern border of permafrost to the north will simultaneously create a number of problems, since it can lead to the destruction of buildings, roads, pipelines built taking into account the current distribution of frozen soils. In the southern regions of the country, the situation will be more complicated. For example, dry steppes may become even more arid. And this is not to mention the flooding of many port cities and coastal lowlands.

The changing climate has a huge impact on both natural and socio-economic processes. In recent years, the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change has analyzed six alternative scenarios for changing the lives of the population, economy and energy as a result of global temperature increase during the 21st century.

The focus of these studies was on the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of natural and socio-economic systems. Sensitivity is the ability of a system to respond to changes in climatic conditions. A convincing example is the indicator of changes in the structure and functioning of an ecosystem of any rank and the primary production produced by it, depending on a given change or fluctuation in the temperature of the surface part, humidity and the amount of precipitation. Adaptability depends on the possibilities inherent in the system to change the mode of operation, the speed and direction of the processes occurring in it, and the possibilities of structuring that arise in this case from the upcoming climatic changes. Vulnerability determines the degree of damage to the system.

As a result of changes in global climatic indicators - average annual temperatures and humidity - corresponding changes in land landscapes will occur, denudation and weathering rates will increase or decrease, the landscapes of the World Ocean will change, shelves will expand or narrow, and significant changes will occur in the field of agriculture.

Landscape Changes

In mid-latitudes, a temperature increase of 1-3.5°C, which is predicted for the next century, is equivalent to a shift of isotherms by 150-550 km in latitude towards the poles and by 150-550 m in height. In accordance with this, the movement of plant ecosystems will begin. However, due to its certain inertia, the movement of fauna and flora will lag behind the changes in the climate in which they developed, and then they will have to exist for some time in an unusual climatic regime. It is assumed that the rate of climate change will be higher than the ability of some species, except for individual animal communities, to migrate to places favorable for life. As a result of the displacement of climatic regions and zones, some types of forest cover may disappear. Plant ecosystems will not move along with climatic conditions as an integral part of them. Separate components of plant biocenoses will move at different speeds. Because of this uneven and selective process, new combinations and associations of species and communities may emerge that will create previously unknown ecosystems. Temperate forests will lose some of their species with a concomitant increase in carbon dioxide emissions from the oxidation of dying biomass.

It is assumed that a third or half of the mountain glaciers will melt. There is no consensus regarding the ice sheets and Greenland. Some scientists believe that in the next hundred years their area, and possibly their volume, will not change, while others, on the contrary, predict a significant reduction.

Desert landscapes will turn out to be more arid due to a significant increase in air temperature compared to precipitation. At the same time, there are calculations showing that there will be a migration of desert areas towards the poles, and the size of modern deserts will decrease.

Changes in the area of ​​the World Ocean

First of all, an increase in temperatures will lead to some sea level rise and a change in the surface and deep circulation of ocean waters, which will affect the distribution and volume of nutrients, including carbon, and will affect biological productivity. The increased volume of ocean waters and high temperatures will contribute to the accumulation of carbonates, which will lead to a greater removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The change in the ocean level primarily depends on hydrometeorological factors that directly affect evaporation and precipitation, as well as on the additional inflow of water arising from the melting of ice sheet and mountain glaciers, and the runoff of water from continental spaces. In addition to hydrometeorological factors, the level of the World Ocean is influenced by a tectonic factor that determines the shape and volume of the bed of the World Ocean, and exogenous factors, in particular geomorphological processes, which include the accumulation of sediments in river mouths, estuaries, estuaries and bays or coastal erosion. The rise in sea level up to 25 cm observed over the past century is the result of the combined effect of all three factors, with the leading role of hydrometeorological ones.

More than half of humanity will suffer from changes in the level of the World Ocean. Therefore, to the existing problems, climate change will add new ones, which will have a very significant impact on coastal areas. These problems are related to the high and ever-increasing anthropogenic pressure on coastal systems, many of which are currently at particular risk. Mangrove systems, which are saline coastal swamps, coral reefs and atolls, as well as river delta and estuary systems, are particularly in distress.

An increase in the level, with a concomitant increase in the frequency and strength of storm surges caused by intensification of tropical cyclones, will lead to flooding of low-lying coastal areas, destruction of coasts and coastal structures, change in the rate and volume of accumulation, and change the conditions for the transport of detrital material and dissolved substances. All this can lead to unpredictable consequences. According to forecast estimates, low-lying islands and flat coasts, on which many large cities and urban agglomerations are located, will be the first to suffer. At the same time, it should be taken into account that in the event of large-scale floods, significant migrations of the population with serious socio-economic and political consequences are likely.

Water resources

Climate change will intensify the global hydrological cycle and cause marked regional changes. Relatively small climate changes can cause non-linear changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture, resulting in relatively small runoff modifications, especially in arid areas. In some cases, with an increase in the average annual temperature by 1-2°C and a decrease in the total amount of precipitation by 10%, the average annual runoff will decrease by about 40-70%. This will require significant capital investments to adapt the water sector to the changed conditions. Especially big problems will arise in those regions where water consumption is significant, and in regions with severe water pollution.

Agriculture

Climate change will have a major impact on agricultural systems. This will force us to take urgent measures to adapt agriculture to new conditions.

Climate impacts on agricultural systems will be very complex and ambiguous. Due to the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide, the volume and rate of photosynthesis will increase and, as a consequence, the yield. The harvest of agricultural crops will also increase due to the involvement of new lands in the agricultural turnover. In areas where farming is limited by the influx of warm air, such as Russia and Canada, the likelihood of increased yields will increase. In arid and semi-arid regions, where it is limited by the availability of sufficient moisture for plants, climate change will be adversely affected. Needs for irrigation will compete strongly with other consumers of water resources - industry and utilities. Higher air temperatures will accelerate the natural decomposition of soil organic matter, reducing its fertility. The likelihood of the spread of pests and plant diseases will increase.

In general, it is predicted that the global level of agricultural production can be maintained at the current level, but the regional impacts will vary widely. The overall picture of world trade in agricultural products due to global climate change may change significantly.

Expected climate changes are also associated with significant changes in human health, the work of the hydropower industry, mainly water, transport, forestry, metallurgical, machine-building, mining and other industries.

It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. Let's see what are the causes of climate change, who is to blame and what to do?

Yakutia tamed extreme climate

It's all because of the melting of the Arctic ice...

The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy winter snowfall in temperate latitudes and incredible heat in summer," said Stephen Vavrus, senior fellow at the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies.

The scientist explained that the heated regions above the regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, causing ocean currents to move and creating strong winds. "Now the Arctic is moving into a new state," says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the process of ice melting is very fast, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.

Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies quickly moved and were destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) "get stuck" in one area much longer than before

Global warming on earth

UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat is the production activity of man, since a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.

Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change threatens humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.

To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the main goal of which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.

The people of Africa and Asia, which, moreover, are now experiencing a demographic boom, will suffer the most from climate change. As noted by Robert Watson, head of the UN panel of experts, warming will adversely affect agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, which will cause a lack of drinking water and various epidemics. In addition, abrupt climate change leads to the formation of destructive typhoons, which have become more frequent in recent years.

Consequences of global warming

The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but they will rise in Southeast Asia. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in the zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice will also melt in the mountains of South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.

What should Russia expect?

Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is due to the fact that the Russian Federation is buried in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming could also deal a severe blow to the Russian economy, as the permafrost begins to melt under the cities of the Far North, where the pipelines that support our economy are located.

What to do?

Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Within the framework of this system, governments of various countries set limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances that pollute the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, a certain industrial enterprise has reduced the volume of emissions, as a result of which they have an "surplus" of the quota.

These surpluses they sell to other enterprises, which are cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts suggested introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.

However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,

Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. According to economists, every dollar spent on scientific research will help to avoid $11. damage from climate change.

There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all the countries of the Northern Hemisphere act decisively and together. Some experts propose to create a hydraulic structure in the Bering Strait capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,

Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In some circumstances, it should act as a dam and prevent the passage of water from the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the Arctic Ocean to the Pacific. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.

Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked Andrey Shmakin, head of the climatology laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geography, to comment on this topic:

- Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about the cold snap. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.

What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.

Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.

- How fast goes process changes climate?

“It's a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.

— U our scientists lot works on the this topic?

- Lot. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment Report on Climate Change in Russia". It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions of Russia.

- Can whether as- then slow down This process? Kyoto protocol, For example?

- The Kyoto Protocol in a practical sense brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.

Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...

- What kind- then other measures?

- Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.

The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.

Read the most interesting in the rubric

- this is established during the XX-XXI centuries. direct instrumental observations of global and regional climate warming under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors.

There are two points of view that determine the main causes of global warming.

According to the first point of view , post-industrial warming (an increase in the average global temperature over the past 150 years by 0.5-0.7 °C) is a natural process and is comparable in amplitude and speed to those parameters of temperature fluctuations that took place in certain intervals of the Holocene and Late Glacial. It is argued that temperature fluctuations and variations in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the modern climatic epoch do not exceed the amplitude of variability in the values ​​of climatic parameters that have taken place in the history of the Earth over the past 400 thousand years.

Second point of view adhere to most researchers who explain global warming by anthropogenic accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - carbon dioxide CO 2, methane CH 4, nitrous oxide N 2 O, ozone, freons, tropospheric ozone O 3, as well as some other gases and water vapor. Contribution to the greenhouse effect (in%) of carbon dioxide - 66%, methane - 18, freons - 8, oxide - 3, other gases - 5%. According to the data, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the air have increased since pre-industrial times (1750): CO 2 from 280 to almost 360 ppmv, CH 4 from 700 to 1720 ppmv, and N 2 O from about 275 to almost 310 ppmv. The main source of CO 2 are industrial emissions. At the end of the XX century. humanity burned annually 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.2 billion tons of oil and oil products, as well as natural gas, peat, oil shale and firewood. All this turned into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere increased from 0.031% in 1956 to 0.035% in 1992 and continues to grow.

Emissions into the atmosphere of another greenhouse gas, methane, also increased sharply. Methane until the beginning of the XVIII century. had concentrations close to 0.7 ppmv, but over the past 300 years, its first slow and then accelerating growth has been observed. Today, the growth rate of CO 2 concentration is 1.5-1.8 ppmv/year, and CH 4 concentration is 1.72 ppmv/year. The rate of increase in the concentration of N 2 O - an average of 0.75 ppmv / year (for the period 1980-1990). A sharp warming of the global climate began in the last quarter of the 20th century, which in the boreal regions was reflected in a decrease in the number of frosty winters. The average temperature of the surface layer of air over the past 25 years has increased by 0.7 °C. In the equatorial zone, it has not changed, but the closer to the poles, the more noticeable the warming. The temperature of the under-ice water in the region of the North Pole increased by almost 2 °C, as a result of which the ice began to melt from below. Over the past hundred years, the global average temperature has risen by almost one degree Celsius. However, the bulk of this warming took place before the end of the 1930s. Then, from about 1940 to 1975, there was a decrease of about 0.2°C. Since 1975, the temperature began to rise again (the maximum increase was in 1998 and 2000). Global climate warming is manifested in the Arctic 2-3 times stronger than in the rest of the planet. If current trends continue, then in 20 years, due to the decrease in ice cover, Hudson Bay may become unsuitable for polar bears. And by the middle of the century, navigation along the Northern Sea Route may increase to 100 days a year. Now it lasts about 20 days. Studies of the main features of the climate over the past 10-15 years have shown that this period is the warmest and wettest not only in the last 100 years, but also in the last 1000 years.

The factors that really determine global climate change are:

• solar radiation;
• orbital parameters of the Earth;
• tectonic movements that change the ratio of the areas of the water surface of the Earth and land;
• the gas composition of the atmosphere and, above all, the concentration of greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide and methane;
• transparency of the atmosphere, which changes the Earth's albedo due to volcanic eruptions;
• technogenic processes, etc.

Forecasts of global climate change in the 21st century. show the following.

Air temperature. According to the ensemble of predictive models of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the average global warming will be 1.3 °C by the middle of the 21st century. (2041-2060) and 2.1 °C towards its end (2080-2099). On the territory of Russia in different seasons, the temperature will change within a fairly wide range. Against the background of general global warming, the largest increase in surface temperature in the XXI century. will be winter in Siberia and the Far East. The temperature increase along the coast of the Arctic Ocean will be 4 °C in the middle of the 21st century. and 7-8 °C at its end.

Precipitation. According to the ensemble of IPCC AOGCM models, the average estimates of the global increase in average annual precipitation are 1.8% and 2.9%, respectively, for the middle and end of the 21st century. The average annual increase in precipitation throughout Russia will significantly exceed these global changes. In many Russian watersheds, precipitation will increase not only in winter, but also in summer. In the warm season, the increase in precipitation will be noticeably less and will be observed mainly in the northern regions, in Siberia and the Far East. In summer, predominantly convective precipitation will intensify, which indicates the possibility of an increase in the frequency of showers and associated extreme weather patterns. In summer, in the southern regions of the European territory of Russia and in Ukraine, the amount of precipitation will decrease. In winter, the proportion of liquid precipitation will increase in the European part of Russia and its southern regions, while the amount of solid precipitation will increase in Eastern Siberia and Chukotka. As a result, the mass of snow accumulated over the winter in western and southern Russia will decrease and, accordingly, additional snow accumulation in central and eastern Siberia. At the same time, for the number of days with precipitation, their variability will increase in the 21st century. compared to the 20th century. The contribution of the heaviest precipitation will increase significantly.

Soil water balance. With climate warming, together with an increase in precipitation in the warm season, evaporation from the land surface will increase, which will lead to a noticeable decrease in the moisture content of the active soil layer and runoff throughout the territory under consideration. Based on the difference in precipitation and evaporation calculated for the current climate and the climate of the 21st century, it is possible to determine the total change in the moisture content of the soil layer and runoff, which, as a rule, have the same sign (i.e., with a decrease in soil moisture, a decrease in the total drain and vice versa). In regions free from snow cover, the trend towards a decrease in soil moisture content will be revealed already in spring and will become more noticeable throughout Russia.

River runoff. An increase in annual precipitation under global climate warming will lead to a noticeable increase in river runoff in most watersheds, with the exception of only the watersheds of the southern rivers (Dnepr - Don), where the annual runoff by the end of the 21st century will increase. will decrease by about 6%.

The groundwater. With global warming at the GS (at the beginning of the 21st century), there will be no significant changes in the supply of groundwater compared to modern conditions. In most of the country, they will not exceed ± 5-10%, and only in a part of the territory of Eastern Siberia they can reach + 20-30% of the current norm of groundwater resources. However, already by this period, there will be a trend towards an increase in groundwater runoff in the north and its decrease in the south and southwest, which is in good agreement with modern trends noted by long series of observations.

Cryolithozone. According to forecasts made using five different climate change models, in the next 25-30 years, the area of ​​"permafrost" may decrease by 10-18%, and by the middle of the century by 15-30%, while its border will shift to the northeast at 150-200 km. The depth of seasonal thawing will increase everywhere, on average by 15-25%, and on the Arctic coast and in certain areas of Western Siberia up to 50%. In Western Siberia (Yamal, Gydan), the temperature of frozen soils will increase by an average of 1.5-2 °C, from -6 ... -5 °С to -4 ... -3 °С, and there will be a danger of formation of high-temperature frozen soils even in areas Arctic. In the areas of permafrost degradation in the southern peripheral zone, the permafrost islands will thaw. Since the frozen strata here have a small thickness (from a few meters to several tens of meters), complete thawing of most permafrost islands is possible over a period of about several decades. In the coldest northern zone, where "permafrost" underlies more than 90% of the surface, the depth of seasonal thawing will mainly increase. Large islands of non-through thawing can also appear and develop here, mainly under water bodies, with the permafrost roof detached from the surface and preserved in deeper layers. The intermediate zone will be characterized by discontinuous distribution of frozen rocks, the density of which will decrease in the process of warming, and the depth of seasonal thawing will increase.

Global changes in the Earth's climate will have a significant impact on the main sectors of the economy.

Agriculture. Climate change will reduce potential yields in most tropical and subtropical regions. If global mean temperature rises by more than a few degrees, yields will decrease in mid-latitudes (which cannot be compensated for by changes in high latitudes). Drylands will be the first to suffer. The increase in CO 2 concentration can potentially be a positive factor, but most likely will be more than “compensated” by secondary negative effects, especially where agriculture is carried out with extensive methods.

Forestry. The expected climate changes for a period of 30-40 years lie within the range of acceptable changes in the conditions for the growth of tree flora in natural forests. However, the expected climatic changes may disrupt the established course of relationships between tree species at the stage of natural regeneration of forests after cuttings, fires, in the centers of diseases and pests. The indirect impact of climate change on tree species, especially young stands, is an increase in the frequency of short-term extreme weather conditions (heavy snowfalls, hail, storms, droughts, late spring frosts, etc.). Global warming will cause an increase in the growth rate of softwood stands of about 0.5-0.6% per year.

Water supply. In any case, unfavorable trends in water supply will cover a relatively small part of the territory of Russia, but in the greater part of it, the possibilities for water supply of any type of economic activity will improve due to a harmless increase in water withdrawal from groundwater bodies and all large rivers.

Human health and vital activity. The health and quality of life of most Russians should improve. The comfort of the climate will increase and the area of ​​the favorable living area will increase. The labor potential will increase, positive changes in working conditions in the northern regions will be especially noticeable. Global warming, together with the rationalization of the Arctic development strategy, will lead to an increase in the average life expectancy there by about one year. The greatest direct impact of heat stress will be felt in cities, where the most vulnerable (old people, children, people suffering from heart disease, etc.) and low-income groups of the population will be in the worst situation.

Sources: Assessments of global and regional climate changes in the 19th-21st centuries based on the IAP RAS model, taking into account anthropogenic impacts. Anisimov O.A. and others. Izv. RAN, 2002, FAO, 3, no. 5; Kovalevsky V.S., Kovalevsky Yu.V., Semenov S.M. Impact of climate change on groundwater and interconnected environment // Geoecology, 1997, no. 5; Upcoming Climate Changes, 1991.

Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both mean values ​​of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. The cause of climate change is dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, more recently, human activities. Changes in the modern climate (in the direction of warming) are called global warming.

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Manifestations of climate change

Weather is the state of the lower layers of the atmosphere at a given time, in a given place. The weather is a chaotic non-linear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. Climate includes such variables as average temperature, rainfall, number of sunny days, and other variables that can be measured in a particular place. However, there are also processes on Earth that can affect the climate.

glaciation

• change in size, topography and relative position of continents and oceans,
• change in the luminosity of the Sun,
• changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis,
• changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4),
• change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
• change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean, [ ]

Non-anthropogenic factors and their impact on climate change

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, tectonic movements plates move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, that is, create a surface on which there is a climate. Recent studies show that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and blocking the direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

solar radiation

On shorter time intervals, changes in solar activity are also observed: an 11-year solar cycle and longer secular and millennial modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not tracked explicitly in the climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it differs from those slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Milankovitch cycles

In the course of its history, the planet Earth regularly changes the eccentricity of its orbit, as well as the direction and angle of inclination of its axis, which leads to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. These changes are called "Milankovitch cycles", they are predictable with high accuracy. There are 4 Milankovitch cycles:

1. Precession- rotation of the earth's axis under the influence of the attraction of the moon, as well as (to a lesser extent) the sun. As Newton found out in his "Principles", the oblateness of the Earth at the poles leads to the fact that the attraction of external bodies turns the earth's axis, which describes a cone with a period (according to modern data) of approximately 25,776 years, as a result of which the seasonal amplitude of the intensity of the solar flux changes by northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth;
2. Nutation- long-term (so-called secular) fluctuations in the angle of inclination of the earth's axis to the plane of its orbit with a period of about 41,000 years;
3. Long-term fluctuations in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit with a period of about 93,000 years;
4. Movement of the perihelion of the Earth's orbit and the ascending node of the orbit with a period of 10 and 26 thousand years, respectively.

Since the described effects are periodic with a non-multiple period, fairly long epochs regularly occur when they have a cumulative effect, reinforcing each other. They are considered the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age, including explaining the Climatic Optimum of the Holocene. The result of the precession of the earth's orbit is also smaller scale changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of ​​the Sahara Desert.

Volcanism

One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cooling spell lasting several years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 significantly affected the climate. The giant eruptions that form the largest igneous provinces occur only a few times every hundred million years, but they affect the climate for millions of years and cause the extinction of species. Initially, it was assumed that the cause of the cooling was volcanic dust thrown into the atmosphere, since it prevents solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over many geological periods, carbon dioxide has been released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological sinks of CO 2 . However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to the anthropogenic emission of carbon monoxide, which, according to the US Geological Survey, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and affect the climate. In some cases the causal relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as in the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less clear. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years. In the late 19th century, in the western United States and Australia, for example, the "rain follows the plow" theory was popular.

The main problems today are: the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere that affect its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors such as land use, depletion of the ozone layer, livestock and deforestation also affect the climate.

Interaction of factors

The impact on the climate of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m 2 . [ ] Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes may play a major role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W / m 2. However, these changes are not long-term, particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

On a scale of several centuries, in 2005 compared to 1750 there is a combination of multidirectional factors, each of which is much weaker than the result of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, estimated as a warming of 2.4-3.0 W/m 2 . The human influence is less than 1% of the total radiation balance, and the anthropogenic increase in the natural greenhouse effect is approximately 2%, from 33 to 33.7 degrees C. Thus, the average air temperature near the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (since about 1750) by 0.7 °С

The cycle of climate change

35-45 year cycles of climate change

The alternation of cool-wet and warm-dry periods in the interval of 35-45 years, put forward at the end of the 19th century. Russian scientists E. A. Brikner and A. I. Voeikov. Subsequently, these scientific principles were substantially developed by A.V. Shnitnikov in the form of a coherent theory of intra- and multi-century climate variability and the general moisture content of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The system of evidence is based on facts about the nature of changes in the mountain glaciation of Eurasia and North America, the levels of filling of inland water bodies, including the Caspian Sea, the level of the World Ocean, the variability of the ice situation in the Arctic, and historical information about the climate. .