One and a half degrees: five questions about the Paris climate agreement. What does the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement mean? Paris climate agreements read translation

For salvation developing countries Russians may pay for climate change by rising prices for electricity and heat

The Paris climate agreement, which aims to curb global temperature rise, came into force on November 4. This means, in particular, reducing emissions carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Its developers are confident that such measures will prevent global warming on the planet. Our country has signed this agreement, but ratification has been postponed until at least 2020. What risks does the agreement entail? This issue was discussed during the hearings in Public Chamber RF (OP). Its experts believe that first it is necessary to develop an appropriate national methodology, since the tools offered by the West do not seem indisputable and cause criticism. In addition, the Paris Agreement may entail the introduction of a carbon tax, and this will lead to an increase in the price of electricity for Russians by 1.5 times.

The Paris Climate Agreement, adopted as part of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2015 and signed by many countries in April 2016, effectively replaced the Kyoto Protocol. It is aimed at curbing the rise in temperature on the planet.

Last year, ecologists calculated that, compared to the 19th century, the average temperature on the planet has increased by more than 1oC, and the main increase in this indicator, according to them, began in the 1980s and continues to this day. According to a number of experts, all this was a consequence of the active processing and combustion of hydrocarbons, which leads to the greenhouse effect. To curb rising temperatures, the world's industrialized countries need to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

However, whether the Paris climate agreement will be a way out of the situation and whether it will prevent a tragedy of global proportions is a big question. This document in its current form contains many shortcomings. It was these gaps that were discussed during the hearings in the Public Chamber of Russia.

“Many aspects of the agreement are controversial in expert circles. This is also connected with the general attitude towards climate science and warming,” the chairman of the OP Development Commission opened the hearing with these words real sector economics Sergei Grigoriev.

Secretary of the OP Alexander Brechalov joined his opinion. “The first point of work in this direction will be a discussion of the results of the analysis of the socio-economic consequences of the implementation of the agreement, that is, putting this idea into practice. Any ill-considered measures can dramatically increase the financial burden on both companies and the population,” he noted.

According to the head of Roshydromet, Alexander Frolov, one of the key problems associated with ratification Paris Agreement, is its scientific validity. In addition, for now this agreement is only of a framework nature and lacks modality. Further climate change is inevitable and the reasons for this process have long been clear. “We need a long-term development strategy until 2050,” Frolov noted.

The same thesis was confirmed by Sergei Grigoriev. “The climate has always changed - both in the 17th and 18th centuries. Now the main problem is that there are no national methods. We refer only to foreign ones. The time has come to make efforts to develop a national methodology, because the theses that are put forward as indisputable raise big questions,” he noted, emphasizing that “the degree of politicization and politicking around this topic is unprecedented.”

One of the stumbling blocks of the Paris climate agreement is the introduction of a so-called carbon tax - a fee for emissions. These contributions are planned to be sent to Green climate fund, and then to developing countries for a program of “adaptation” to global climate change. Those who seek to limit imports of energy resources, for example, countries are interested in introducing a “carbon levy” Western Europe. States whose economies are tied to hydrocarbon production and fuel production, on the contrary, consider this mechanism not ideal. Thus, the budget office of the US Congress noted that the introduction of a “carbon fee” will lead to an increase in prices for many goods. And for Russia in its present form it can lead to the most unpleasant consequences. According to calculations by the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies, damage to Russian economy threatens to amount to $42 billion or 3–4% of GDP.

“It is not clear from the agreement what we signed. The draft decision turns the agreement into a liquidation document and involves intervention in domestic policy our country through environmental mechanisms. Those who ratified it will supplement it without our participation,” believes Vladimir Pavlenko, a member of the presidium of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems.

Moreover, he believes that the Paris Agreement is a shining example application of double standards created to gain the opportunity to interfere in the internal affairs of any state, and primarily Russia. “The double standards of the Paris Agreement make it difficult to prove that our absorbing contribution is an environmental donation. In the European Union, emissions exceed absorption by 4 times, in the USA and China - by 2 times. In Russia, the balance is positive in favor of absorption. Our absorption resource is estimated at 5 billion to 12 billion tons, that is, 10 times more than in this document. So are we sinks or polluters?” - asks Vladimir Pavlenko.

By the way, there is confirmed evidence that many countries that have ratified this document falsify information. For example, India records its emissions under the Brazilian sink resource, while the Americans record them as Canadian emissions. There are also serious suspicions about the West’s intention to use our absorption territories under bilateral agreements with different countries.

“We need to move to a format of thoughtful study of numbers and threats,” agrees CEO National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov. - It is very important to link the ratification of the agreement to the lifting of sanctions. The world community needs to decide whether we are with it or not. But for this it is necessary to put an end to the trade war.”

Moreover, we must not forget that there is a threat that the Paris climate agreement will result in additional and unexpected costs for ordinary Russians. “We all understand that we live in difficult economic conditions, and any ill-considered decisions can cause a serious blow to the country’s economy,” believes Sergei Grigoriev.

As noted in the report of the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies, the introduction of a carbon fee could lead to a significant increase in electricity prices. The construction of replacement generating capacities will require about 3.5 trillion rubles. Under this scenario, the cost of a kilowatt for large commercial consumers will increase by 50–55%, for small commercial consumers - by 28–31%, for the population - by 45–50%, that is, 1.5 times. It is obvious that without working out all the nuances, ratification of the Paris Agreement will be a premature decision. In this regard, the participants in the hearings in the OP indicated their readiness to promote all initiatives and proposals in the future, right up to President Vladimir Putin.

Today at the TASS press center representatives of the government, business community and environmental organizations discussed the opportunities and threats that ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement could bring to Russia. Round table " Greenhouse effect for the economy: the first year of the Paris Agreement,” held at the news agency’s office, helped to understand what changes await the country’s energy balance after the document enters into force. Let us recall that the plan for ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement was approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in early November, thereby putting an end to the discussion about whether Russia should undertake obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

The document assumes that by 2020 a long-term strategy for low-carbon development of the country will be adopted and targets for reducing emissions until 2030 will be determined. However, with the advent of the plan, doubts did not disappear, the main one of which was: why does an oil and gas power need “clean” energy?

01.

Why do you need to negotiate?

Humanity today uses the resources of one and a half planets Earth. World economy develops very extensively, and many resources do not have time to recover. We are talking not only about fossil fuels, but also about marine systems, fisheries, forests. If we do not change this economic model, sooner or later we will lose the resources to live.

02.

Can the working group at the UN be trusted?

The scientific body called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change includes more than 10,000 specialists from various countries, including about 700 from Russia. The group's work is based on scientific research in the field of climate, carried out by UN member countries, and annual reports from experts on climate change on the planet. (In Russia, such studies are carried out, in particular, by Roshydromet, the Institute global climate and ecology of Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Sciences, the country’s oldest institute on climate problems “Main Geophysical Observatory named after. A. I. Voeikova.")

03.

What happened before the Paris Agreement?

Since 1997, the Kyoto Protocol has been in force, which linked the economy and the environment, allowing countries to trade carbon dioxide emissions quotas and invest in projects to reduce emissions in other countries. The protocol divided countries into two groups: developed ones, with fixed obligations to reduce emissions, and developing ones, without strict obligations. Much has changed since the 1990s: disbanded Soviet Union, the economies of the BRICS countries rose sharply and Persian Gulf. And while countries that have committed to reducing emissions (including Russia) have done so, globally emissions have continued to rise as the role of other countries has increased. Therefore, there was a need to conclude a new climate agreement.

Reference:

The Paris Agreement was adopted during the Climate Conference in Paris on December 12, 2015, in addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The document regulates measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and should replace the Kyoto Protocol, the obligations under which expire in 2020. The agreement provides for the obligations of the parties to reduce emissions, the amount of which is determined by each country independently. Currently, the document has been ratified by 96 countries. Russia signed the agreement in April 2016, but the political and business communities doubted its ratification due to concerns that the transition to a low-carbon development strategy would negatively affect economic growth.

04.

How is the Paris Agreement different from the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol assumed a “prescriptive” distribution of emissions quotas, but the Paris Agreement works differently. It sets a trend, but does not introduce global regulatory measures in the form of quotas or other restrictions. Each country independently determines the figure by which it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and then a common goal is formed from this data. The Paris Agreement assumes that participating countries will develop domestic carbon regulations, such as a low-carbon strategy or a carbon tax (where each producer pays a certain amount for each ton of fuel burned).

05.

What is the purpose of the Paris Agreement?

common goal, which the countries participating in the agreement agreed upon, make every effort to ensure that the global temperature in the world does not rise from the level of the pre-industrial era by more than 2 degrees.

06.

Two degrees – is that difficult?

All national programs presented in the Paris Agreement assume an increase in global temperatures of at least 3 degrees. No one has yet presented a set of measures to guarantee an increase in temperature on the planet by no more than 2 degrees.

07.

Why is warming of 2-3 degrees dangerous?

With global warming of 2 degrees, by the middle of the 21st century, 500 million people will experience water problems. If world temperature will increase by 3 degrees, this figure will reach 3 billion.

08.

Why should Russia participate in the Paris Agreement?

the main problem Russia today has low energy efficiency: the energy saving potential in Russia is 40%. In other words, our country is losing as much energy as the whole of France consumes.

09.

What disadvantages might the Paris Agreement have?

According to the deputy director of the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies, the tax on greenhouse emissions, the introduction of which is envisaged by the Paris Agreement (the so-called carbon tax), will affect generating companies whose thermal power plants operate on coal, as well as the owners of gas and oil stations - both from the collection itself and from rising prices for natural gas. “Consumers will also feel the impact of the Paris Agreement,” said Alexander Grigoriev. – Rising electricity prices will be the next inevitable consequence of the introduction of a carbon levy. IPEM calculations show that if the current volume of generating capacity is maintained, the introduction of an emissions tax will add 0.45–0.58 rubles/kWh to the cost of electricity, which corresponds to a price increase of 19–25% for the population and large industrial consumers, by 11– 14% for small and medium businesses.

“The feasibility of a tax path to a carbon-free future is far from clear,” agrees Fedor Veselov, presenter Researcher Institute of Energy National Research University graduate School economy". – A carbon tax is often considered as a way to increase the competitiveness of low- and non-carbon energy by increasing the cost of electricity from thermal plants. But in conditions of objectively lower domestic Russian gas and coal prices, carbon tax rates will not be lower than $50–70 per ton of CO2. The mechanism for using tax revenues is also a problem. Could they be targeted to support technological restructuring in the electricity industry itself, forming a reverse mechanism for reducing the cost of low- and non-carbon projects, and could they become a way to subsidize other industries or simply increase the budget? The additional tax burden will be translated into the price of the final product, including the price of electricity and heat.”

10.

What is happening in Russia in terms of CO2 emissions?

Russia is today in fifth place in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. China is in first place, the United States is in second, India is in third, and the European Union is in fourth. This data was provided by the International Energy Agency in a report prepared in 2015 on the eve of the Paris Agreement. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Russia managed to reduce emissions, but not due to technological development, but mainly due to the closure of industrial production.
As part of the Paris Agreement, Russia announced a goal to reduce emissions by 25-30% from 1990 levels by 2030.

11.

What needs to be done in Russia to curb harmful emissions?

The first measure is energy efficiency. Today, experts are talking about reviving the energy efficiency program, and many expect more government money to flow into this area.

The second direction is the development of renewable energy.

Third – technology. Analysts talk about the danger of lagging behind in the development of technologies that are in one way or another connected with renewable energy, with the issues of “smart” networks, “smart” cities, and technologies that predict electricity consumption.

12.

What benefits does public discussion of climate-related issues bring?

Understanding the dangers and prospects. Ignorance gives rise to myths, which is why popularization and expert opinions are so important. Peretok received answers to some questions related to greenhouse emissions from Angelina Davydova, director of the Russian-German Bureau of Environmental Information (RNEI), a recognized expert on climate issues. Angelina gave this lecture in October of this year in Irkutsk as part of the “Future Energy” project of the En+ Group company.

Angelina Davydova is director of the Russian-German Bureau of Environmental Information, scientific journalist. Since 2008, he has been an observer at the UN climate working group and is actively educational activities in this area, collaborated with the publications “Kommersant”, “Ecology and Law”, The St. Petersburg Times, The Village and others.

It was adopted on December 12, 2015 following the 21st Conference of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris.

The agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including through:

— keeping global average temperature increases well below 2°C and working to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C, which would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

— increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and promoting development with low greenhouse gas emissions, in a manner that does not jeopardize food production;

— aligning financial flows towards low-emission and climate-resilient development.

The Paris Agreement specifies that specific measures to combat climate change must be aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and their development and implementation rests entirely with national governments.

Agreement cements and formalizes pivot to new, low-carbon model economic development based on the gradual abandonment of traditional technologies for the extraction, processing and use of fossil resources (primarily hydrocarbons) in favor of “green” technologies.

By 2020, states must revise their national strategies in the field of CO2 emissions towards reduction.

The commitments of countries participating in the Paris Agreement are planned to be renewed every five years, starting in 2022.

The Paris Agreement, unlike the Kyoto Protocol, does not provide for a quota mechanism. The Paris Agreement does not include sanctions for countries that fail to meet their national contributions. The agreement simply approves the creation of an incentive mechanism that should reward states and economic entities for their successful reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

To implement programs to curb global warming, developing countries will be provided financial support. Combined public and private funding for developing countries is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020.

The Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies (IPEM) analyzed the main models of carbon regulation, global experience in their use, the effectiveness and potential of their use in Russia. Forbes reviewed the results of the study.

The Paris Climate Agreement, adopted in December 2015, after 2020 will be a continuation and development of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the previous international document regulating global emissions of harmful substances. In light of new climate initiatives, Russia (along with 193 countries) signed the Paris Agreement and committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25–30% below 1990 levels by 2030.

In its study, IPEM notes that unless Russia begins to stimulate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the commitments are unlikely to be fulfilled. Even with an average annual GDP growth of 2% per year, maintaining the current indicators of carbon intensity of the economy and the volume of emissions absorbed by forests, by 2030 emissions will amount to 3123 million tons of CO 2 equivalent - which is 6% more than the accepted commitment.

Experts have identified four main models for regulating CO 2 emissions:

Direct payments for greenhouse gas emissions

This strategy includes two main market mechanisms to reduce emissions. Firstly, the so-called carbon fee, i.e. a payment rate for a certain amount of carbon dioxide emissions.

Secondly, quota trading is possible. This mechanism assumes that the permissible total volume of emissions in the territory is initially established, and then quotas for this volume of emissions are distributed among sources of greenhouse gases. Secondary trading of quotas between companies with an excess or shortage of quotas is also allowed.

About 40 countries use this strategy at the national or regional levels, most of them are developed countries (only two countries are not included in the OECD - China and India).

Carbon tax and cap-and-trade are the most stringent methods of regulating emissions and affect a large share of the economy (in different countries this share accounts for between 21% and 85% of greenhouse gas emissions), which is why most countries protect certain sectors of the economy from regulation. In addition, there is an obvious relationship between the payment rate and the energy structure. Thus, in countries with a high share of thermal energy (more than 50%), payment rates are set at a very low level.

Taxation of motor and energy fuels

According to the OECD, 98% of CO 2 emissions from the combustion of motor fuels and only 23% of emissions from the consumption of energy fuels are taxed through fuel taxes. Thus, this strategy, although popular in many countries, is fraught with high social risks, since it can seriously affect the cost of motor fuel. Already, the share of taxes in the final price of fuel reaches 50%.

Stimulating the development of renewable energy sources (RES)

This strategy is acceptable for countries that are heavily dependent on fuel imports, such as the European Union, but its implementation imposes significant additional costs on consumers. According to the study, in a number of European countries who are actively implementing renewable energy sources, the price of electricity for a small enterprise is 50% higher than the cost of electricity in Moscow, which has some of the highest tariffs in Russia.

Moreover, as noted in the institute’s research, in Russia there is a constant increase in power prices - the price for it may double in price. These factors do not contribute to the introduction of renewable energy sources in the Russian energy sector in the next 5-7 years.

Promoting energy efficiency

According to IPEM experts, this particular regulatory model is the most promising for Russia. Firstly, Russia has great potential for further improvements in energy efficiency. Secondly, Russia already has successful experience in increasing energy efficiency in a number of industries: the requirements for the disposal of associated waste are changing. oil gas, metallurgical plants and refineries are being modernized. Thirdly, currently in Russia there is a transition to the principles of the best available technologies, for example, in the coal industry.

“Russia cannot remain aloof from global trends in the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, as this creates both reputational and economic risks for our country,” noted IPEM General Director Yuri Sahakyan. - Therefore, it is necessary to develop our own model for regulating greenhouse gas emissions, which will meet Russian standards national interests, take into account the characteristics of the domestic economy, its structure and real opportunities.”

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption On the eve of the signing of the agreement in Paris in 2015, environmental activists sent their greetings to world leaders

Judging by numerous reports, US President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw the country from the Paris climate agreement. He intends to announce his decision on Thursday evening.

The Paris Agreement includes a commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The implementation of the agreement was discussed at the summit" G7"in Italy last Saturday.

What is the essence of the Paris Agreement, why is it important and what are its main provisions?

In outline

The climate agreement reached in Paris in December 2015 for the first time in history united the efforts of all world powers to contain climate change. It was approved by 195 countries, allowing observers to call it historic.

It replaced the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, which was in force until then, which established greenhouse gas emission quotas for only a few developed countries, but the United States withdrew from this agreement, and a number of other countries did not comply with the agreement.

The agreement came into force in November 2016.

What are its key provisions?

• Do not allow average temperature on the planet to grow above 2˚С in relation to the indicators of the pre-industrial era, and, if possible, reduce it to 1.5˚С.

• Begin, between 2050 and 2100, to limit greenhouse gas emissions from human industrial activities to levels that trees, soil and the oceans can naturally process.

• Review upward every five years the contribution of each individual country to reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

• Developed countries should allocate money to a special climate fund to help poorer countries combat the effects of climate change (for example, natural disasters or rising sea levels) and transition to the use of renewable energy sources.

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption Paris negotiations were difficult

What remained in the agreement and what had to be removed?

The most important thing is to keep the rise in temperature on Earth within 2˚C relative to the pre-industrial era - rates higher than this, according to scientists, will lead to irreversible consequences.

Unfortunately, we are already halfway to this scenario, since average temperatures have increased by almost 1˚C compared to the 19th century, and therefore many countries have advocated introducing a stricter limit of up to 1.5˚C; These countries included those that are low-lying and therefore at risk of flooding if sea levels rise.

As a result, the final text of the agreement included a promise to strive to limit the increase in average temperatures on the planet to 1.5˚C.

At the same time, for the first time, such an agreement includes a long-term plan to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve a balance between greenhouse gases resulting from human activities and their absorption by seas and forests - by the second half of the 21st century.

“If these agreements can be negotiated and implemented, this will mean reducing the balance of greenhouse gas emissions to zero within a few decades. This is in line with the science we have presented,” commented John Schoenhuber, director of the Climate Change Research Institute in Potsdam.

Some say the agreement is too vague because a number of original goals had to be watered down during negotiations.

“The Paris agreement is only the first step in a long journey, and some parts of it upset and upset me, although it is still some kind of progress,” said Greenpeace International director Kumi Naidoo.

What about money?

This issue was one of the most difficult in the negotiations.

Developing countries say they need financial and technological help to make the leap to a zero-carbon economy.

Currently, they have been promised $100 billion a year until 2020 - but this is less than many of them expected to receive.

The Paris Agreement obliges the developed countries support the financing of this amount of $100 billion annually until 2020, and, starting from it, agree by 2025 to continue financing this process.

Illustration copyright AP Image caption Demonstration in Paris during the 2015 conference

What's next?

Only certain provisions of the Paris Agreement are binding.

National greenhouse gas reduction strategies are voluntary; Moreover, the negotiations just stumbled on the question of when it will be necessary to revise them in the direction of tightening them.

The agreement obliges participants to review the progress made in 2018, and subsequently conduct a similar assessment every five years.

According to analysts, the Paris Agreement is only First stage implementation of energy-saving technologies, and much more needs to be done.

“Paris is just the opening salvo in the race to a greener future,” says the executive director of the UK branch of the Foundation. wildlife David Nissbaum.