Causes of weather anomalies. The cause of the anomaly in the Khabarovsk region was found underground. Shift of magnetic poles and what it will lead to
Questions about what is happening with the weather are already arising even in the minds of people who are far from meteorology and science in general. Why? It’s hard not to notice that something wrong is happening with the weather in Russia. Is it that serious?
Summer in Russia 2017
In June 2017, the weather in Russia played its first trick. When residents of central Russia were planning to open the season of shorts and T-shirts, the weather threw them a surprise. It rained all month, and the weather was autumn, even snow fell, what a pair of shorts. But in the northern regions of Russia at that time there was unprecedented heat for that region.
In July 2017, summer warming came abruptly and there was unprecedented heat. And only August was more or less like itself, it was about 25 degrees Celsius. And then, completely unheard of, in September 2017 a hurricane swept through Moscow. Tornadoes also swept through Tatarstan and the Urals.
Many people remember the abnormal heat of 2010, but the next year everything returned to normal. What is happening with the weather now and what will happen in the summer of 2018?
What will winter be like in Russia?
Russians joke that they are waiting for the warmth they didn’t receive in June in December. What forecasts do meteorologists give?
Europe was shocked by the statement of scientist James Madden that the winter of 2017-2018 will be very severe, moreover, the coldest in the last 100 years. In his opinion, from this year we can begin counting down a new climate period. In Russia there will no longer be mild winters with an air temperature of -5 °C, but as before, at least -25-30 °C. The cold snap will also affect Europe.
Russian meteorologists are not so categorical and say that the winter will be average, but snow will fall early, even in the autumn months. There are no promises of wild cold weather, the only thing is that the temperature drop will occur sharply. But few meteorologists deny that the climate is changing.
Is it only in Russia that weird weather happens?
In 2017, something is happening with the weather not only in Russia. At the end of the summer, Hurricane Irma of unheard-of duration swept across the Florida coast and the Pacific Islands.
There were severe floods in Bangladesh in June.
In the summer in Japan, the thermometer exceeded 40 °C. Many Japanese were hospitalized with heat stroke because they were not used to such heat.
What is the reason for the anomalies
The reason for what is happening with the weather (2017), and such drastic climate changes, is considered to be unprecedented Lately temperature rise in the Pacific Ocean by 1 °C. It would seem a trivial increase, but it led to the fact that the temperature in the Arctic increased by as much as 3 °C. And now a powerful cold cyclone is heading towards Europe and Russia.
A person far from meteorology has a reasonable question: how does warming in the Arctic cause cooling on the Eurasian continent? Here's the thing. When the flows warm air sharply collide with the flows of Arctic air, then the flows of denser and heavier cold are repelled far beyond the borders of the Arctic continent. The stronger this collision, the more crooked the air direction becomes and the further the cold air flows from the Arctic are thrown. This process is scientifically called meridional transfer air masses. It is he who is to blame for the fact that in some places around the world the weather can become unpredictable. For example, in May in central Russia this flow slowed down the arrival of a warm cyclone, and the weather “froze” and did not change at the usual time.
Due to this meridional transfer of air masses, cold air currents, which usually do not reach the European part of Eurasia, may reach in the winter of 2017. Then this continent will become unusually cold. And the cause of such processes, as paradoxical as it may sound, is global warming.
Global warming: what is it?
The phenomenon of global warming is not entirely correctly named; “global warming of the world’s oceans” would be more correct. Warming does not occur on the entire planet at the same time, but in the world's oceans.
As is also known from school curriculum, the ocean has a huge impact on the weather. How? Gigantic masses When water heats up, it evaporates, such an amount of steam has a crazy amount of energy. This energy forms the air currents that control the weather. This is how wind currents are born that carry the clouds, they become clouds and then rain down all over the planet. Water on the planet is in an eternal cycle, freezing, evaporating, moving. But all the water that is now on the planet is actually the same that dinosaurs and mammoths drank.
But why did nature behave this way, why is global warming of the ocean happening? This happens due to the greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse effect: consequences and causes
So that cucumbers and tomatoes ripen faster in the climate Central Russia, housewives use greenhouses. Using their example you can understand how it works Greenhouse effect. The earth evaporates moisture, generating heat, but the heat cannot completely leave the greenhouse, and due to this, the temperature under the film becomes higher than outside it. This is due to increased concentration carbon dioxide in the air.
The greenhouse effect itself is not the source of all the planet's ills. Moreover, no greenhouse effect average temperature on Earth would reach -18 °C and life would hardly be possible in the form in which it exists now. When the Earth was still young, there was so much carbon dioxide in the air that ocean temperatures were close to boiling point. But with the advent of plants, the concentration of carbon dioxide decreased, and a harmony of carbon dioxide and oxygen emerged, in which the life of creatures such as mammals became possible.
But recently, human industrial activity has increased the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air. The air temperature began to rise again. Over the 20th century, the average temperature on the planet increased by almost 1 °C, and the rate of increase is increasing. Yes, we are still far from the boiling point, but what will happen to the climate in 10 years? And after 1000?
Have there already been climate disasters on the planet?
Many will remember that dinosaurs did not die a natural death. Destroyed them glacial period. And what’s interesting is that this is not the first and certainly not the last climate disaster on Earth:
- The first of them occurred when there was no life on Earth, 4.5 billion years ago. Supposedly there was a violent impact with a planet the size of Mars. As a result, a part broke off from the Earth, which later became the moon.
- About 850 million years ago, the entire surface of the Earth was covered with ice, no less, for 250 million years. And this would have continued to this day if the ice had not been melted by awakening volcanoes.
- But because of these same volcanoes, another climate catastrophe subsequently occurred. Thanks to excavations in Perm region It was found that 250 million years ago something happened on Earth that destroyed almost all life. There are only 5% of living organisms left on Earth. Some of them died under the burning lava, and some suffocated from the carbon dioxide that was released during the eruptions. The Earth recovered only after 30 million years.
- And finally, the last catastrophe that occurred 65 million years ago and killed the dinosaurs. Unlike previous disasters, this mass extinction of species is more difficult to explain. Geologists could not find any visible changes. Here we can only put forward theories, the most popular is the fall of an asteroid, which caused fires that obscured the sun with its smoke. The Earth became colder and the dinosaurs became extinct.
Predictions of a climate catastrophe
Scientists made many such predictions until they came true. But if it comes, it will look like this:
- The temperature will rise inexorably.
- All glaciers on the planet will melt.
- Cities that are not under water will face terrible famine due to drought.
- The real end of the world will come on Earth, people will be at each other's throats because of food, of which over time there will be very little left.
- Few people will survive until the temperature reaches a critical level.
Shift of magnetic poles and what it will lead to
This is another danger that threatens a person. The Earth has a powerful magnetic field, which has two pluses: north and south. These poles move periodically and have even completely changed places 4 or 5 times. But there is no fixed information about this; this is only proven by the structure of the Earth’s surface.
What will happen if the poles reverse today?
First, most GPS satellites will fail. What does this mean besides the loss of cellular communications? The fact that all airplanes, seaworthy ships and trains on autopilots can crash when colliding with each other.
Secondly, the Earth's ozone layer will suffer severe damage. This layer protects living beings from harmful effects solar and cosmic radiation. Difficult to predict Negative consequences this, because even its thinning has led to an increase in cancer patients.
Thirdly, there will be panic on Earth. It will fail cellular, electrical networks, the Internet and much more, which already forms the basis modern life. For example, people who will be in hospitals and maternity hospitals may die because of this.
The bottom line is that if the reversal does occur, then humanity will not die out, but will suffer greatly, and its number will decrease. But when this will happen is difficult to predict in advance. Forecasts no earlier than 10 years in advance will be more or less accurate.
Climate weapons, is it real?
There are also supporters of the theory that this new climate weapon is the weather.
Nikola Tesla developed similar theories in his works. He argued that when influencing the ionosphere, it is possible to control air flows and set their temperature.
America is suspected of this, an idea supported by the fact that, being a Serb, Tesla received US citizenship in 1881. He died in New York in 1941, and the archives of his works are classified to this day. Suspicions boil down to the fact that what is happening with the weather is controlled by the Americans using the HAARP system. This sabotage is intended to undermine the economies of Russia and Europe. The goal, naturally, is to seize power throughout the world.
But this theory has some inconsistencies. For example, if these are the doings of the Americans, then how do they allow such tornadoes and hurricanes on their territory? If they could control the weather, then North America there were no climatic anomalies. And they happen all over the globe. Every decade, hurricanes like Irma and Katrina claim thousands of American lives.
Climate change forecasts for the next decade
Many are concerned about the question: is it just flowers that are happening to the weather in 2017. As scientists say, in 10 years summer heat 35 °C will become the norm for the central region of Eurasia. But in general, life there won’t change much.
But countries close to the equator will suffer more. Temperatures there will become so high that water shortages will worsen. Crops will suffer, primarily corn, and then other cereals.
How will this affect a person in 100 years?
If humanity does not reduce its industrial fervor, then by the end of the 21st century the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere will double. This will lead to the average temperature in central Russia being at least 30 °C. Everywhere on Earth there will be epidemics that will thrive in such a hot climate.
All this will lead to the melting of glaciers not only in Antarctica, but also in the Himalayas. This amount of melted ice will raise the level of the world's oceans and coastal cities will go under water.
How accurate these forecasts are depends on many factors, and it is possible that developed countries will come to their senses and understand that the lives of our children and grandchildren are too high a price to pay for lightning-fast progress.
If the worst predictions come true, will life remain on the planet?
The most interesting thing is that in the 21st century, starting from the birth of Christ, the 19th century was the coldest, and then it began to warm up. An increase in temperature in itself will not kill a person. The scary thing is that it happens so quickly, it is not so easy to adapt to what happens with the weather so quickly.
But if you look back and remember the level of science some 100 years ago, you can understand that what was considered impossible has become a reality. A person with such phenomenal intelligence is not so easy to kill. Humanity is like a virus for the planet, which is not so easy to get rid of. People adapt very quickly.
Even if we assume that the temperature and radioactive background on Earth will rise to a critical level, and all people and animals will not adapt and die out. But this does not mean that there will be no life on Earth. Flies are able to survive with radiation of 64,000 rads, scorpions are able to survive under the scorching sun and in the ice of the Antarctic, amoebas hibernate at unfavorable conditions and wake up when they are completed. Once upon a time the planet was ruled by dinosaurs, now humans, perhaps in the future it will be a different species. The end for humanity is far from the end for the Earth.
FIVE MAJOR WEATHER ANOMALIES
First, let's try to understand what is happening with the weather in Russia and throughout the planet. And then we’ll figure out who is to blame for this and what will happen next.
Vadim Zavodchenkov, leading specialist at the Phobos center, compiled a rating for “KP” weather anomalies that Russia experienced in May and early June 2017:
1. Hurricane in Moscow.
Wind gusts reached 30 meters per second, which has never happened in the entire history of meteorological observations. The hurricane was caused by cold atmospheric front. “Such fronts always come with rain, thunderstorms and strong wind. And although the process is classic, the degree of its development is extraordinary, due to the large temperature contrasts intensified by the metropolis: the asphalt warms up one and a half times more than the ground, and the greater the temperature contrast, the higher the wind speed,” says Vadim Zavodchenkov. No weather anomaly has caused so much damage in such a long time. a short time- just a few hours.
2. Tornadoes in Tatarstan, Altai, and the Urals.
Extremely atypical phenomena for our country, especially at this time of year. This is the first time in history for Tatarstan; in Altai, tornadoes occur once every 10 years.
3. Cold temperature anomalies
Leader in cold weather - center and all European part Russia. Last May was the coldest in several decades, the temperature did not reach the climate norm by more than 3 degrees. Even in June we were hit by snowfall and night frosts! For the era of global warming in which we live, all this is very unusual.
4. Arctic invasions
But not all of Russia is freezing. In southern Siberia - Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Abakan, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk - heat records were broken in May. But even there, waves of extreme heat were replaced by equally sharp cold snaps. “Usually in May there are two intrusions of arctic air in Siberia; this year there were four of them in a month. Such sudden and frequent weather changes are also non-standard phenomena. By the way, they were the causes of tornadoes: icy air from the Arctic collided with hot air, powerful cumulus clouds formed in contrast, and tornado funnels swirled underneath them,” explains the meteorologist.
5. Heavy rains and flooding in the Stavropol region and other regions of the North Caucasus.
THE ARCTIC IS WARMING - WE ARE FREEZING
The reason for all these anomalies in 2017 - warm, cold, wet and windy - oddly enough, is the same. Global warming, - assures Vadim Zavodchenkov.
Where is the logic? He is ready to explain:
Cold air is denser and heavier than warm air - we know this from school. On a scale Globe cold air from the poles, due to its weight under the influence of gravity, “flows” to the southern latitudes. And since the planet rotates counterclockwise, when viewed from above North Pole, in mid-latitudes air flows begin to move from west to east. This is how the west-east transfer of air masses arises, which creates normal weather that is familiar to us. Cyclones come to the center of Russia from the Atlantic, bring rain, go further to the Volga and the Urals, in the intervals between cyclones it is sunny and dry. But this is normal. It's different now.
It's extremely warm in the Arctic: Global warming at the poles is faster than the average on Earth. In the spring of 2017, the average temperature in Arctic latitudes was 3 degrees higher than normal; in winter anomalies reached 6 degrees. The ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in April was a record low for this time of year. A open water It is always warmer than ice, which also causes the air temperature to rise.
What's the result? The flow of cold air into southern latitudes is not as strong as usual. As a result, the west-east jet, which carries cyclones along their usual paths, also weakens. Instead, they rush around in a sinusoid: sometimes from north to south, sometimes from south to north. It is called meridional transport of air masses, and it increasingly determines our weather. The frequent Arctic invasions that I spoke about are precisely of this nature. Air from the north “falls” far to the south.
A cold May in the European part of Russia - the result of the so-called blocking. This is when meridional flows are squeezed by anticyclones and cannot move anywhere - the air flows from north to south or from south to north for weeks. Remember the heat of 2010? It was a blocking process. Now too, but with a different acquaintance. For a whole month, Moscow and neighboring regions received only cold air from the north.
Our expert is supported and general secretary World Meteorological Organization Petteri Taalas:
The poles influence weather in lower latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live. Arctic warming and shrinkage sea ice associated with extreme events such as prolonged cold spells, heat waves and droughts in the northern hemisphere, he quotes from the official WMO statement.
NOT JUST WARMING
In fact, any hints about global warming now sound like a mockery. Is snow in June your vaunted global warming? And the fact that on June 15 in Moscow is +15 degrees, too? Well, thank you!
What is happening to the climate on a scale not only of Russia, but of the entire planet? Tells Alexey Kokorin, Head of the Climate and Energy Program at the World Fund wildlife(WWF) in Russia:
- The planet Earth is definitely warming, and this is not my opinion, but a scientific, proven fact. But it's not that simple.
Yep, we already guessed it. If it were just warming, it would be hot now! I just want to be sarcastic. But let's listen further:
All oceans on the planet are gradually warming up upper layer water, to a depth of 700 - 1000 meters. And even at a depth of 2 kilometers there is a noticeable increase in temperature. And this is the ocean main element climate system. The atmosphere, unlike the ocean, is very mobile and changeable. AND If there is definitely warming in the ocean, then in the atmosphere there is climate change.
Indeed: in almost all scientific (not Internet-newspaper) publications this very term is used - climate change, climate change, not global warming. Not because there is no warming. But because Warming is not the only and not the worst thing that is happening to the climate.
What's the worst thing? And what to do with it? Read on.
IN Central Russia there will be no summer, and there is abnormal heat in Siberia
IN Vologda region, the city of Vytegra, on July 14, the traditional forum “Society for Security” started. The main topic was the use of aviation technology in rescue operations in the Arctic. Teams of rescuers from different cities of Russia, leaders regional branches, as well as participants in volunteer movements.
Among other things, an adviser to the President of Russia also spoke at the forum, who spoke about the reasons for the abnormal weather that could be observed in 2017. According to the expert, it will be repeated in the future with even greater frequency, and the reason for this is warming in the Arctic.
"We observe anomalous phenomena when the weather is unstable. 2017 is an example of such situations that can be repeated more and more often,” he said, speaking at the forum. Bedritsky explained that the temperature contrast between the poles and the equator is decreasing. “This leads to an increase in regional atmospheric processes. The area of ocean surface temperature anomalies also contributes to atmospheric blocking processes, including in the Atlantic and European sectors,” he said. As a result, the expert notes, what happens is sudden change weather.
When organizing measures to ensure hydrometeorological and environmental safety, it is important to consider climatic factor, believes Bedritsky. "This the necessary conditions to ensure a reduction in risks to the livelihoods of the population and for rescue operations,” he noted.
He also set another important task for the forum participants: to study the ice cover of the Northern Arctic Ocean and find out how it affects atmospheric cyclones.
Previously, experts assessed the damage that Russian farmers would suffer due to abnormal cold weather this year. As I wrote with reference to National Union agricultural insurers, the amount of damage could reach up to 2.6 billion rubles. The president of the organization stated this. Those insured can range from 0.6 to one billion rubles.
This year, much fewer farms have insured their crops than in the previous year. Because of this, experts suggest, these losses may be borne by the federal budget.
It is also noted that agricultural insurance was paralyzed due to the reform of the industry, in which a single regional subsidy was introduced for the agro-industrial complex. Normative base for the functioning of innovations, however, was never adopted.
Earlier, specialists from the Phobos center noted that in the Moscow region the weather lags behind the calendar by about a month.
The abnormally cool weather this summer has already set several records. For example, the daytime temperature in Moscow last month, June 15, turned out to be the lowest in the last 138 years - it corresponds to the indicators at the end of April.
As calculated in , the abnormally cold and rainy months pushed back the date of the early harvest. This caused inflation to deviate more from the forecast - by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.
This week the Central and Eastern Europe, as well as northern Italy. In some places there was a real storm. Wind gusts the day before exceeded 25 m/s, and in mountainous areas values of 30 or more meters per second were recorded.
A powerful Atlantic cyclone should be blamed for the current situation. He has already managed to overtake Europe. For example, on July 12, more than 20 mm of precipitation fell in Vilnius in half a day; the roads were flooded and were partially paralyzed transport connection— buses and trolleybuses stopped; the water even entered shopping centers.
Bad weather will linger in the capital until the end working week, although the rains will reduce their intensity. By Sunday, July 16, the amount of precipitation may be about 20-25 mm. But the temperature will be stable and within the July norm: +23...+25°C.
In general, the summer of 2017 has already earned the epithet “abnormal” in terms of precipitation. For example, in June, in places to the west of the Urals, the norm fell for both June itself and July and August. The capital is not far behind. Thus, on June 30, 65 mm of precipitation fell in the city, which amounted to 84% of the monthly norm. The rain was the heaviest on June 30 in the entire history of observations in the capital - the previous record with 62.5 mm of precipitation was set in 1970. June 2017 ranked second among the wettest first months of summer: 139 mm of precipitation fell this year (180% of the monthly norm), and in 1991 162 mm fell in June. Note that precipitation records in Moscow have been set for the last four months, starting in March 2017.
May snow from the window of a Facebook user in Murmansk
“In the morning, Facebook greeted me, asking if I was ready for snow in the city... I thought for a while... My little blue down jacket hung in the closet all winter. At the end of April I pulled it out and wore it for an evening walk and have worn it every day since. After taking a sip of hot Rusciano, I thought that I was probably ready for anything. I don’t have summer tires anyway, but I can still ride on winter tires until next winter,” user Sergei Pogodin jokingly puts forward the version: May snow is a consequence of the use climate weapons.
“I heard that in Moscow the heating was turned on again, but here, thank God, they haven’t turned it off yet. Maybe the Americans are testing climate weapons on us? But even if so, you won’t take us with this!” — Pogodin photographs snow-covered Murmansk in May.
“Whatever you want, I think climate weapons were used against us!” — echoes to him Irina Frolova (Moscow).
“I’m also starting to believe in climate weapons,” writes Muscovite Anna Sholina and attaches a video of snowfall...
At first, several people a day, but now every hour new sensible people announce to their friends that they are moving to the conspiracy theorist camp. “Where can I read about climate weapons? (smiley here)"
The chronicle can be watched in search results by key phrase.
The difference between these messages does not even lie in the fact that a resident of which region of Russia considers himself a victim of a military experiment. And who used the weapon: it was us, or the Americans?
Novaya Gazeta asked people who, in principle, do not deny the existence of climate weapons, to participate in the discussion of this version. Unfortunately, even they have no doubt: the current cold snap and snow in May can in no way be related to its use.
Evgeniy Tishkovets
leading specialist at the FOBOS weather center
— Is it possible with the help special weapons influence the weather? Of course available.
“But this whole topic has long been closed. Only Americans still sometimes indulge in it. And yet, what is happening now in Moscow fits perfectly within the framework of our climate.”