Central Bank refinancing rate for the year. Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Dossier

The regulation of the economy is currently carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by determining the size of the key rate. This percentage is used today in many areas, and not only, as the name suggests, in banking. Its size is fixed by special acts and is mandatory for use throughout the Russian Federation. We can say that the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today 2018 occupies an important place in the economy as a whole.

The key rate is fixed in regulations percentage with a minimum indicator at which commercial banks have the ability to attract funds to carry out their activities.

Another indicator is largest size interest on deposits, at which the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can accept funds from other banks. It serves as the main indicator characterizing the monetary policy of the state.

Until recently, two concepts were in use - the refinancing rate and the key rate, and they had different meanings, despite the fact that both were installed by the Bank of Russia. In 2016, they were combined, now this criterion is called the key refinancing rate. According to the existing plan, with its help the state must reduce inflation gradually to a given level.

Attention! When commercial banks set their interest rates on loans, their determination is based on the key rate. With the help of the key rate, competent government agencies act on the rate of inflation by either increasing or decreasing it.

It is also used when determining penalties, which, in accordance with tax legislation, for failure to pay taxes on time, are used when determining fees for the use of borrowed funds, and when determining personal income tax on material benefits.

If an organization or individual entrepreneur delays wages, then compensation for each day of non-payment of earnings is determined based on the rate in force at that time.

Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today 2018 in the table

The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today is always indicated on the website of the Bank of the Russian Federation. The table below shows its values ​​for the last two years.

Attention! The rate moves by basis points. The recent reduction, which took place on February 12, 2018, led to a reduction in the key rate by 25 basis points.

Who changes the key rate

The change in the key rate indicator is carried out by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, since it is one of its instruments for influencing the banking sector and the economy as a whole.

The decision to increase or decrease it is made at a special meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the area of ​​monetary regulation. Also at the meeting a decision may be made to maintain the current rate.

These types of events are held once every six weeks.

At the end of the meeting, the responsible persons hold a press conference at which they announce decision and the reasons that prompted its adoption.

Attention! In addition, before the press conference, a written press release is issued with information on the key rate. This is usually carried out at 13-30 Moscow time.

What does the key rate affect?

The key rate today influences quite a lot a large number of performance indicators. Let's take a closer look at this point.

Impact on the economy

Since the key rate affects the interest rate at which banks attract funds from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it affects the availability of money for further lending. After all, a reduction in the key rate will cause an increase Money in turnover and a decrease in the interest rates of commercial banks on financing legal entities and population.

And this will cause economic activity in most sectors of the economy. Subjects will begin to buy new equipment, raw materials and supplies, increasing production, volumes of services provided and work performed.

Impact on inflation

The country's leadership, through regulation, determines the desired level of inflation, which must be supported by special measures. Among them, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation occupies a special place.

There is an inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and its change.

When the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduces it, this leads to the emergence of additional funds for business entities and citizens. As a result, they begin to actively purchase goods and services, causing their prices to increase. And this is a sign of an increase in inflation rates.

The opposite situation is observed when the key rate rises, as a result of which banks try to attract funds not from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but from the population and other banks and companies.

As a result, the saving effect is triggered, and potential buyers refrain from purchasing, thereby reducing demand, and consequently the prices for goods and services (work). This leads to a decrease in inflation rates.

Loans

The banking sector has two main sources of raising funds for lending - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation or private and legal entities.

The cost at which banks raise money for lending affects the interest on them. Therefore, a decrease in the key rate causes a decrease in the bank’s own costs for obtaining funds, which leads to a decrease in the rate on loans provided.

Low interest rates on bank loans attract a large number of people who want to take them, as a result there are more of them.

Raising the key rate has the opposite effect. High interest on loans make subjects want to refrain from making these transactions, which leads to a decrease in the number of loans.

Deposits

When the key rate is reduced, banks refuse to attract funds on deposits, increasingly turning to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for available funds. This is due to the fact that the funds for lending are cheaper.

Refusal to attract funds from other sources leads to their reduction in cost, that is, to a fall in deposit rates. The population and legal entities that place free funds in deposits refrain from accumulating and refuse deposits.

When it increases, banks turn to deposits from individuals and companies for free resources, which leads to an increase in their number, as well as to an increase in interest on deposits.

Penalties on taxes

If business entities do not pay mandatory tax payments on time, then the Federal Tax Service, starting from the next day, begins to charge penalties. They amount to 1/300 of the Central Bank’s key rate for each day until the debt is paid, including the repayment day.

However, the last point is not clearly defined in the law, therefore the Federal Tax Service requires that penalties be included on the day of payment in the calculation period, and the courts exclude this day.

This contradiction does not exist in the case of calculating and paying penalties on contributions for injuries. There, the law clearly establishes that the day of payment must be included in the period for which penalties are determined.

When calculating the amount of the penalty, you must use the rate that was in effect on a given day.

Attention! Since October 2017, amendments have been made to the law that increase the amount of penalties for legal entities if tax payment is delayed for more than 30 days. Now, from day 31, it is necessary to calculate penalties based on 1/150 of the key rate. This innovation does not apply to ordinary citizens and entrepreneurs.

Calculation of compensation

By law, a business entity is obliged to pay salaries to its employees twice a month on the days that were assigned in internal documents. If this is not done on time, then from the next day until the debt is repaid, compensation must be paid to the employee.

This is stated in the Labor Code of the Russian Federation. This requirement applies to all types of payments, including salary accruals, bonuses and other payments, the issuance of which is prescribed in the internal regulatory documents, sick leave, vacation pay, etc. It does not matter for what reason the delay was made.

The amount of compensation is 1/150 of the refinancing rate in force on these days. Currently, the indicator of this rate is connected by values ​​to the key one. Or the company has the right to set its size, but it cannot be less than that specified in the law. It is calculated on the actual debt of the company, without withholding personal income tax.

Attention! If the company does not independently calculate and pay compensation, and the supervisory authority reveals this during an inspection, then the legal entity may be fined up to 50 thousand rubles, the manager - up to 20 thousand rubles, and the entrepreneur - up to 5 thousand rubles.

Material benefits from loans

The company can issue its employees, founders, or simply individuals cash loans. In this case, the accountant needs to charge personal income tax on material benefits.

This concept arises if the interest rate that the company has set for a given loan is less than 2/3 of the current key rate. In this case, the employee has a “saving” on interest, which will be taxed. The Tax Code sets a tax rate of 35% for these cases.

The benefit and tax must be calculated each month on its last day for the entire period for which the loan was issued. If the employee returns part of the funds within a month, then the calculation is made for each amount of debt. Also, several calculations will have to be performed if the value of the key rate changes.

Illegal blocking of a current account

Tax service has the right to block the operation of the company's current account. In the case where such an action was carried out illegally (for example, the Federal Tax Service considered that the tax was not paid or a declaration was sent, but the subject can prove the opposite), according to the Tax Code the body is obliged to pay compensation for each day of blocking.

The compensation percentage is set at the key rate that was valid during the blocking days.

One of controversial issues The calculation of compensation is to determine how many days it must be divided into. This moment is not legally specified anywhere, so companies usually use the standard value of the number of days in a year, 360.

However, the tax authority requires that the business entity use the actual number of days (365 or 366). But in this case the amount of compensation will be lower. You will have to prove your case through the courts.

Refund of taxes and contributions

Some taxes are paid by making advance payments throughout the year. If, after the end of this period, the amount of calculated tax is less than the amount of payments already paid, an overpayment is formed. The subject can offset it against other tax payments, or apply for a refund.

Returns must be made within a month. If this does not happen, then for the days of delay the Federal Tax Service must pay interest in the amount of the current key rate.

The amount is calculated based on the actual length of the year in which the refund occurs (i.e., 365 or 366 days are used). The period for calculation is taken inclusive of the day when the refund was credited to the company’s account.

Important! These conditions also apply to the return of excessively withdrawn taxes, as well as VAT refunds.

Late payment interest

When carrying out commodity-money relations, the parties regulate them among themselves by concluding a supply agreement. In the event that one party transferred the goods or provided services on time, and the second did not pay for them on time, the supplier has the right to collect interest for each day of such delay.

Typically, the amount of this type of compensation is specified in the text of the contract. However, if this was not done, the interest rate for calculation is taken in the amount of the key rate valid for each day of delay. When determining the amount, the exact number of days in the month and year is used.

TASS DOSSIER. On April 27, a regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will be held on issues monetary policy. It may decide to change the key rate of the Central Bank.

Currently it is set at 7.25% per annum.

What is a key rate

Key rate - annual interest, under which the Bank of Russia issues loans to commercial banks. By a decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on September 13, 2013, the key discount rate was established for repo auctions (from the English repurchase agreement, repo; purchase of money or securities with the obligation to resell after a certain period at a fixed price) with a period of one week. The remaining rates on Central Bank operations are tied to the key rate. Since ordinary banks depend on loans from the Central Bank, the key rate has great importance for their clients, individuals and legal entities. The lower the key rate, the lower the interest on mortgages and other loans.

The Central Bank may raise the discount rate to prevent a market collapse and smooth out stock market fluctuations. At low discount rates, banks can borrow rubles from the Central Bank, buy foreign currency with them, and, due to the depreciation of the Russian currency, cover the cost of paying interest on ruble loans. As the rate increases, such speculative transactions become more risky for banks. At the same time, an increase in the rate leads to an increase in the cost of loans for entrepreneurs and the population; banks may have difficulties refinancing already issued loans. This could lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

Until 2013, the main discount rate was the refinancing rate. It was first set in 1992 at the level of 20% per annum, in 1993-1996 it reached 210%, then fluctuated at the level of 20-50% and after the peak on May 27 - June 4, 1998 (150%) gradually decreased.

The minimum refinancing rate was set on June 1, 2010 and was valid until February 28, 2011 - 7.75%. By the beginning of the 2010s, the refinancing rate was used only as a tool for calculating fines and penalties, and also as a guideline for minimum size interest on ruble deposits of the population. Loans to banks were provided using other instruments, primarily repo transactions. From January 1, 2016, the refinancing rate is equal to the rate at weekly repo auctions.

Minimum discount rate for repo auctions in 2003-2012

For the first time, the minimum discount rate for weekly repo auctions was set by the Central Bank on May 20, 2003 at 6.5% and did not change until February 2008, when it was increased by 0.2%. Due to the global financial crisis and the depreciation of the ruble in 2008, the rate was increased several times. On December 1, 2008, its level was set at 9.5%, and on February 10 of the following year it was raised to 10.5%, followed by a strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.

Then, throughout 2009-2010, the rate gradually decreased, in particular, the level of 9.5% per annum was again recorded on May 14 - June 5, 2009. The historical minimum rate for weekly repo auctions, 5%, lasted for more than six months - from June 1, 2010 to February 28, 2011. The level of 5.5% per annum was recorded on September 14, 2012; this value remained after this rate was established as the key one.

year 2014

Due to the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the weakening of the ruble, rising inflation rates, the introduction of sanctions against Russian companies, as well as other factors, in the spring and summer of 2014, the Central Bank raised the key rate six times: March 3 - to 7% per annum, April 25 - to 7.5%, July 25 - to 8%, November 5 - to 9.5%, December 12 and 16 - up to 10.5% and 17% per annum, respectively.

2015

On January 30, 2015, the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 15%, explaining that the previous rise had led to the stabilization of inflation and devaluation expectations. The financial regulator expected a decrease in inflation in the medium term. On March 13, 2015, the key rate was reduced to 14% per annum, on April 30 - to 12.5%, on June 15 - to 11.5%, on July 31 - to 11% per annum.

At the same time, in July 2015, the Bank of Russia announced that in the future it would make decisions on the level of the key rate depending on changes in the balance of inflation risks and risks of economic cooling. On September 11, October 30 and December 11, 2015, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank decided to maintain the key rate at 11% per annum.

2016-2017

On June 10, 2016, for the first time in 11 months, the key rate was lowered to 10.5%. In a press release, the Bank of Russia noted that it expects positive processes to stabilize inflation, reduce inflation expectations and inflation risks against the backdrop of signs that the economy is approaching a phase of recovery growth. On September 16, 2016, the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate to 10%.

On March 24, 2017, the Central Bank lowered the rate below 10% for the first time since 2014 - to 9.75% per annum. Then during the year the rate was reduced five times: April 28 (to 9.25%), June 16 (to 9%), September 15 (8.5%), October 27 (8.25%) and December 15 (7.25%). 75%).

2018

On February 9, 2018, the Central Bank lowered the rate by 25 basis points - to 7.50%. On March 23, the rate was reduced for the fifth time in a row - to 7.25%. In a press release, the regulator noted that this decision was adopted against the background of low annual inflation (2.2% in February 2018) and growth in economic activity.

The Central Bank regulates the main economic processes in our country, and the main tool for this is the key rate. Moreover, this value is used in many areas financial activities. The size of the indicator is periodically reviewed and fixed by special acts. It must be used without exception throughout Russia. The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today 2018 is considered one of the most important elements of the economy.

The key rate is an indicator that is fixed in official documents, and expresses the minimum percentage at which commercial banks can attract external funds for their activities.

Besides, given value also expresses maximum percentage, under which the Central Bank can place money from other banks on its deposits. The key rate is considered one of the main indicators that expresses the current state of the country's economy.

Until recently, two concepts were used in economics at once - the key rate and the refinancing rate. Both of these values ​​were determined by the Central Bank, but expressed different values ​​from each other.

In 2016, it was decided to combine them, and the updated indicator began to be called the key refinancing rate. It is planned that, thanks to its use, the state will be able to reduce the current level of inflation to acceptable values.

When commercial banks decide to set the interest rate for their loan products, its calculation is based on the key rate. Also, government agencies, by measuring the expression of the key rate, can increase or, conversely, reduce inflationary processes.

This indicator is also used to determine the amount of penalties accrued in case of failure to pay taxes, when calculating payment for the use of raised funds, and when determining material benefits.

Attention! Also, based on the key rate, the amount of compensation to employees is determined if a business entity delays the payment of their wages.

Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today 2018 in the table

The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation today is 7.75%. It is always published on the website of the Central Bank.

Over the previous 2 years, it took the following values:

The rate moves up or down by basis points. The change in the indicator that occurred on February 12 shows that the rate was reduced by 25 basis points.

Who can change the key rate and how often?

The decision to change the current value of the key rate is made by the Central Bank, since this indicator is one of its mechanisms for regulating not only the banking sector, but the entire economy.

The decision that it is necessary to change the current value of the indicator, or leave it at the current level, is made by the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which deals with monetary relations. This meeting occurs once every six weeks.

After the event has passed, the responsible persons organize a special press conference, at which the current value of the rate is announced to all those present, as well as the reasons for which this decision was made.

Attention! In addition to this step, a special release is issued immediately before the press conference, which also announces the key bet. It is available to everyone. The publication of the message usually occurs at 13-30 Moscow time.

What does the key rate affect?

Modern economic interaction is structured in such a way that the key rate today affects a wide number of indicators and processes.

Impact on the economy

It follows from the nature of the key rate that it is an expression of the percentage at which commercial banks take funds from the Central Bank for subsequent lending to their clients.

This means that a decrease in the key rate will cause an increase money supply in circulation and reducing interest rates on credit products for individuals and companies.

Available credit will lead to greater activity in all areas of the economy. Thanks to them, firms will purchase new goods and equipment, raw materials and components, and this, in turn, will increase production output or the volume of services provided.

Impact on inflation

The state leadership has the opportunity, with the help special tools maintain the required level of inflation. One of them is precisely the key rate.

Moreover, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and rate fluctuations. So, if the Central Bank decides to lower the rate, then the population and business entities have unoccupied funds in the form of savings or available loans. They begin to actively buy goods that interest them, which leads to higher prices. And rising prices are precisely an increase in the rate of inflation.

On the other hand, the Central Bank may increase the rate. This will lead to more expensive loans, and it will be more profitable for banks to raise funds not from the Central Bank, but from the population.

Attention! This will lead to potential buyers not making purchases, demand for goods will fall, and sellers will be forced to reduce prices. This, in turn, will reduce the inflation rate.

Loans

Any of the commercial banks can raise funds from two sources - from the Central Bank, or from individuals and legal entities.

The price at which banks are able to attract funds for lending affects the established interest on loan products. A decrease in the key rate entails a decrease in the costs of a commercial bank to obtain funds, and this results in a decrease in the requested loan rate. If the rate is low, then it appears big number those who want to register it.

When the key rate rises, the opposite trend occurs. Commercial banks will be forced to raise interest rates on their loans, which will make the population and organizations want to refrain from receiving them.

Deposits

If the Central Bank decides to lower the rate, then commercial rates refuse to attract funds from the population through savings deposits, and apply to the Central Bank for them. After all, thanks to the low key rate, they will cost less.

Refusal to attract funds leads to a decrease in rates on deposit accounts. People and companies stop placing their available money in the bank.

When the key rate increases, it becomes unprofitable for commercial banks to contact the Central Bank, and the population and companies become the source of funds. Thanks to favorable interest rates on deposits, their number increases.

Penalties on taxes

If the population, entrepreneurs or organizations do not repay their obligations to the state in the form of tax payments on time, then penalties begin to accrue starting from the next day of delay.

Its size is 1/300 of the Central Bank key rate for each day, starting from the first day of delay and ending with the day of repayment.

It should be noted that the law does not clearly establish on which day penalties should be accrued. The Federal Tax Service requires that the day of payment be included in this period, while the courts remove it from the calculation.

This contradiction does not exist in the legislation on transfers for injuries. It clearly states that the day on which the debt is repaid must be included in the billing period.

Attention! When calculating penalties, the rate that was in effect on the day of the debt is applied. If necessary, you can.

Since October 2017, changes have been made to the law regarding the definition of penalties for legal entities. According to them, if tax payment is delayed for more than 30 days, starting from 31 days, a calculation is applied based on 1/150 of the key rate. This innovation does not affect citizens and entrepreneurs.

Calculation of compensation

Labor law establishes the obligation of the party acting as the employer to pay remuneration at least twice a month. These deadlines must be fixed in the company by its local acts.

Violation of established deadlines leads to the need to calculate and pay compensation to employees for late payment. Moreover, this requirement applies to both wages and all its components, payment of vacation pay, sick leave, etc.

What matters is the fact that wages were not paid on time, and the reasons why such a violation was committed are not taken into account.

Compensation is calculated based on 1/150 of the key rate that was in effect on the day of delay. Business entities are given the right to increase the percentage used in determining compensation, fixing it in the employment agreement with the employee. But it cannot be less than the current rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

In addition, the liability of a legal entity or individual entrepreneur is provided for when it is discovered that wages are being delayed and compensation is not accrued. In this case, according to the Administrative Code, the company must pay a fine of up to 50,000 rubles, individual entrepreneurs - up to 5,000 rubles, and management - up to 20,000 rubles.

Material benefits from loans

Companies are given the right to provide individuals who are employees, founders, or simply citizens, financial assistance either by providing interest-free or low-interest loans.

In this case, these citizens have a so-called “material benefit”, that is, the difference between the interest actually paid and those that the individual would have to pay. It appears in situations where the business entity has stipulated in the loan agreement interest rates below 2/3 of the key rate.

The Tax Code of the Russian Federation requires the calculation and payment of personal income tax to the budget in the amount of 35% for material benefits.

At the same time, the obligation to calculate material benefits and calculate tax is provided for the tax agent on a monthly basis during the period of validity of the loan agreement. He must do this on the last day of each month covered by the loan agreement.

If within a month it happens partial repayment debt, then the material benefit must be determined for each such amount.

The same will have to be done when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decides to change the key rate.

Blocking a company account in violation of current rules

Tax authorities today have the right to block accounts if they identify violations established by the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. Since the Federal Tax Service also employs people, blocking can occur on on illegal grounds, because of a mistake.

In this case, the company or individual entrepreneur has the right to compensation for the damage incurred by calculating compensation for each day of blocking. This amount is calculated based on the current key rate that existed on the day the account was illegally blocked.

However, at present, many disputes arise due to the determination of the period into which the key rate is divided in the calculation. Business entities insist that a period of 360 days should apply. But inspectors insist that the actual annual duration must be included in the calculation. This is due to the fact that the amount of compensation in this case is reduced.

Refund of mandatory payments from the budget or insurance premiums

Current taxation systems provide for the payer's obligation to intermediately calculate the tax and transfer it to the budget in advance.

Quite often, a situation arises in which the taxpayer transferred more to the payment budget than the total amount of tax for a specified period.

At the same time, the Tax Code of the Russian Federation provides for the right of an organization or individual entrepreneur to either offset these amounts against future obligations to the budget, or to return them based on a submitted application.

The statutory period for such a return is one month. If the regulatory authority violates given time, then he will have to calculate and pay to the taxpayer the amounts that are determined on the basis of the current key rate for a given period.

In this case, it is necessary to take into account the actual length of the year in which the delay in payment was made (it is equal to either 365 days or 366). The period of such delay also includes the date the money is credited to the company’s current account.

The same rule applies to amounts erroneously withdrawn by the Federal Tax Service and amounts of VAT not reimbursed in a timely manner.

Interest for late payment

The parties may enter into agreements between themselves providing for the fulfillment of certain obligations for each of them. For example, in supply contracts, one organization must transfer goods on a regular basis and the other must make payments within strictly defined periods.

If the subject delays the payments provided for in the contract, then, in accordance with the executed agreement, he will have to pay, in addition to the principal amount, interest for the delay in payment, which is calculated in the amounts specified in the contract.

But if the conditions for this were not discussed in the signed agreement, then, according to civil law, they should be determined on the basis of the key rate that was in effect on the day the obligations were violated. In this case, it is also necessary to take into account the number of overdue days and the monthly or annual number of days.

The key rate is one of the most important indicators of the economic state of the country. It is not surprising that the news of its reduction was received positively by banks and entrepreneurs. Last meeting The meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia took place on December 14, 2018. During the meeting, it was decided to increase the value of the indicator by 0.25% and this is the second increase in a year. This means that currently the key rate of the Central Bank in 2019 is 7.75%. The previous values ​​were in effect from March 23 and February 9 of this year. For the first time since December 2014, the regulator increased the key rate in 2018.

Key bet: concept, meanings

The key rate is understood as the minimum value of % at which the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is ready to issue financial institutions loan with a duration of 7 days. The same concept is used to determine the maximum possible percentage on deposits opened by commercial banks with the Bank of Russia.

From this we can conclude that the key rate directly affects the interest rate on loans issued and deposits issued in all commercial banks countries.

It is noteworthy that they dropped for the second time in a year to 7.25% from 7.5% a month and a half after the previous decline. Up to 7.75% per annum was changed for the sixth time in 2017 at the end of the year, previously 8.25% per annum was changed for the fifth time in October 2017, 8.5% per annum was adopted on September 15, 2017 and previously 9% on July 16, 2017 year and changed after 2 months, 9.25% per annum adopted on April 28, 2017 and 9.75% per annum adopted by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on March 24, 2017 lasted about a month, and previously equal to 10%, was valid for more than six months (from September 19, 2016 to March 26 this year).

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not rule out that at the next meeting the key rate may be lowered again. But what is the reason for this decision? Why has the key rate changed for the third time this year?

Factors that contributed to the change

The main argument is that inflation is falling faster than expected. There is an increase in economic activity. Even the size of inflation risks went down, while remaining at a fairly high level.

The past decision to reduce the key rate is part of the country's monetary policy. Strict frameworks will help reduce inflation faster. Its planned value at the end of this year is 4%. Analysts miscalculated: they only noted that the Central Bank intends to change the rhetoric towards a potential rate increase, but not to raise it at all.

There are a number objective reasons, which led to the reduction of the Central Bank’s key rate in 2017. But they need to be considered in more detail.

Change in inflation in 2017

As already mentioned, the inflation rate decreases from higher speed than expected. This conclusion was made in connection with the assessment of the increase in consumer prices. Its meanings are:

• for January – 5%;
• as of March 20 – 4.3%;
• in the third quarter they decreased further;
• In the summer, economic growth remained at 4%.
  Moreover, it is noted that the decline occurred precisely in the first month of spring. In winter, the values ​​were practically unchanged. Although positive dynamics were observed already in February, when the seasonality factor was excluded. Positive role The stabilization of the national currency, due to the following factors, also played a role:

1. foreign investors are also actively investing their own funds in Russian enterprises;
2. the price of oil turned out to be higher than expected;
3. the size of the insurance premium for the risk has decreased;
4. The good yields of previous years allowed agricultural land to make sufficient reserves of products, which made it possible to significantly slow down inflation in this area; as a result, prices for goods in this segment fell.

And yet, the saving model of behavior still prevails in Russian society. There are other positive aspects here: wages increase not only in reality, but also nominally, that is, their purchasing power increases.

The slowdown in inflation should reduce inflation expectations of the population and business representatives. What does this mean? That people will not strive to buy as many goods as possible, but will prefer to open deposits and invest in business.

Changes in monetary policy

The tendency to use a fairly strict credit policy is necessary, if only because it will have a positive impact on the propensity of citizens to save their money rather than spend it due to rising inflation.

It is also planned to reduce interest rates in banks, which will encourage people to take out loans. Although this applies to a greater extent to reliable and solvent borrowers. Otherwise, it is planned to soften lending conditions.

Previously, the Ministry of Finance purchased foreign currency in order to have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. True, this did not give significant result. But inflation risks in the short term were not increased during this operation.

Rapid growth in economic activity of the population

The economic dynamics in the country are gaining more and more positive aspects. Owners are more determined rural farms and ordinary entrepreneurs. There are other factors indicating an increase in economic activity:

• GDP growth;
• growth of investments in Russian economy from foreign citizens;
• increase in industrial production volumes;
• stable unemployment rate;
• real growth wages, which increases the demand for goods.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation also expresses a positive opinion regarding further GDP growth not only in 2017, but also in 2018 and 2019 by an average of 1–2%. And this assessment was made on the basis of a forecast for lower oil prices. It is noted that positive trends will strengthen over time, and timely structural changes should contribute to this.

Inflation risks

There has been an objective reduction in the risk that inflation will not exceed 4% by the end of this year. But there is an assumption that the current value may strengthen for a fairly long period of time, which will interfere rapid development economy, but economic growth is now stable.

Current risks are no longer related to the situation in the country, but to the fact that inflation expectations will not decrease - people, by inertia, will be afraid to save and invest.

Inflationary risks are also fueled by the volatility (changeability) of world markets – goods and money. The country’s monetary policy will allow them to be reduced, and subsequently it will contribute to the reduction and consolidation of inflation.

What to expect next? According to forecasts, the key rate of the Central Bank in 2019 may still change. It’s not for nothing that new meetings are held several times a year. Further, other issues of the country's monetary policy will be considered.