Will there be a revolution in Russia: forecast of scientists. The revolution in Russia has begun! Long live the long-awaited Revolution

the Russian Federation is on the verge of a coup d'état - so many analysts and visionaries believe. In the context of conflicts in the Middle East and sanctions from the European side, these forecasts sound plausible. What lies ahead for Russia in the coming year?

2017 marks the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution. The political situation of a century ago is painfully similar to today, - analyst Yevgeny Gontmakher is convinced. He expressed his opinion two years ago in the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper. On the turn of XIX and XX, XX and XXI centuries, Russia got every chance for a new start. But Emperor Nicholas II, and then Vladimir Putin, did not implement the promised reforms, which affected the mood of the Russians. The gap between rich and poor widened.

According to forecasts, the October Revolution may repeat in 2017

The Bolsheviks enlisted the support of the disadvantaged sections of the population - the townspeople - "lumpen" and poor peasants. It was they who, annoyed by the actions of Nicholas II, brought his opponents to power. It is easy to imagine such a situation today, when millions of Russians have crossed the poverty line. Yevgeny Gontmakher believes that the positions of the Russian authorities rely only on the influence of Vladimir Putin. But let's go back to history.

There are many examples of how, after the death of a leader who ruled for more than a decade, the country was engulfed in protracted conflicts. For example, the Mexican leader Porfirio Diaz was in power for 30 years and left behind a seven-year civil war. Sheikh Reza Pahlavi of Iran ruled the country for almost four decades, but lost all power during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Such examples can be found in the history of many countries in Asia, Africa and South America.

Today we can hardly imagine the future of Russia without Putin. The President has long gone from being an ordinary politician to a national leader. According to the results of an all-Russian poll, 52% of citizens “rather trust” the president, and 21% “trust completely”. And, although Vladimir Putin's ratings are falling every year, any Western politician will envy them.

Revolution in Russia November 5, 2017

This date was "appointed" by the Russian opposition leader Vyacheslav Maltsev. He became popular thanks to the political show that he hosts on YouTube online. In one of the issues, Maltsev stated that the revolution would begin no later than November 5th. It will be one hundred years since the October Revolution, and the Russians will be ripe for a change of power.

Maltsev openly criticizes Putin and calls himself a "friend of Ukraine." But is the leader trustworthy? After all, the YouTube channel of the oppositionist appeared shortly after his comrade Vyacheslav Volodin became the head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation. Maltsev confirms his acquaintance with the official, although he says that now they are on opposite sides of the barricades.

Clairvoyant predictions

On the Internet, we constantly see gloomy "prophecies" about the future of Russia. In fact, most of these statements were invented by scammers. Psychics rarely made predictions tied to certain dates, and even more so to dates that are very distant in time.

More accurate forecasts are given by modern soothsayers and astrologers. For example, he believes that in 2017 Russia will emerge from a protracted crisis and strengthen its position on the world stage. Vanga predicted a bright future for Russia and the reunification of the USSR. True, the blind seer did not say when these events would occur.

Will there be a revolution?

Despite the similarities with 1917, there are fewer prerequisites for a revolution now. The opposition still does not have a leader like Lenin or Trotsky. According to 2015 statistics, 67% of Russian citizens are sure that “everything is fine” in the country, and only 14% think that “everything is bad.” Given Russians' propensity for pessimism, these results come as no surprise. But the indicators are deteriorating every year, and, quite possibly, one day the discontent of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation will reach a boiling point.

For the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, the revolution is one of the most frightening scenarios further development events. There are a number of reasons for this, both economic and political.

If we analyze the history of such radical events and look at the fruits that such changes brought, it is easy to see that these initiatives did not bring anything good to ordinary citizens.

Revolutionary actions always have a negative impact on ordinary people reducing their incomes, lowering their standard of living and security.

Probability of revolution

Despite the fact that the vast majority of Russians are extremely negative about radical ways to change the political situation, experts say that in 2019 a similar scenario is quite possible in our country.

Political scientists, sociologists and economists unanimously make a forecast regarding the high probability of revolutionary actions if officials fail to change the now brewing trend.

Over the past few years, the degree of radicalization of society has greatly intensified. There are extremely many reasons for this, ranging from the rampant corruption of the state apparatus to the incredible gap in the incomes of ordinary citizens and the oligarchic stratum.

Observing such injustice, people are trying to find the culprit, and no one is better than the current government for this role.

The protracted economic crisis also adds fuel to the fire. Western sanctions, a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp depreciation of the national currency have significantly reduced the real incomes of each Russian family. And all this against the backdrop of false information from officials about the growth of the economy and the improvement of indicators in all areas of the national economy.

Prerequisites for radical sentiments

First time funds mass media they started talking about the possibility of a revolution in Russia back in 2014, when the economic crisis swept across the entire country, greatly reducing the standard of living to which citizens are accustomed.

At that time, members of the government, bankers and economists talked about the frivolity of the phenomenon, and its inability to harm the state. The government flatly refused to believe in the fact that the economy was Hard times and it's time to make wise and rational decisions.

What came out of it, we can see today: prices for all consumer goods have increased significantly, the real level of wages has decreased, most large-scale projects have been canceled or frozen, the real estate market has practically fallen into decline due to the inaccessibility of mortgages. And this is only part of the problems that have worsened in recent years.

Ordinary people, having lost a significant part of their income, began to save on almost everything, including such natural necessities as food or rest. Buying your own home or getting an affordable loan for business development is out of the question for most of our fellow citizens.

At the same time, as we see from the current situation, the end will not come soon. But whether people will want to put up with this situation, time will tell.

When can revolutionary action begin?

No one undertakes to predict the exact date of the revolution in Russia, especially since it can manifest itself in absolutely different forms. Even psychics and clairvoyants, confirming the possibility of radical events, do not take responsibility and do not try to indicate the exact date and month.

Exactly at future period the mood of citizens will be at the peak of radicalization, which may provoke mass protests against the current government and even local conflicts with law enforcement agencies.

Another reason for the emergence of discontent among the masses will be the election of the head of state, the results of which, as you know, will not be satisfied by everyone.

What are the possible scenarios of the revolution

Russia is far from an ambiguous country with its own special view of current events, therefore, to predict it further fate extremely difficult. Nevertheless, we will try to consider the most likely scenarios for the national revolution, so that each of our readers is fully prepared for any scenario.

The first and most likely scenario for a new Russian revolution is a revolt. Since recent history, we know that our fellow citizens most often prefer to express their dissatisfaction with the political or economic situation in the form of radical defiance and active opposition to the authorities.

The second scenario is a referendum and a voluntary surrender of power. This is often the case in civilized countries where the principle of democracy operates and officials listen to the opinion of their voters.

Although the Russian Federation is still difficult to classify as a state with a developed democracy, there is still hope for a peaceful resolution of the revolutionary conflict. I would like to believe that the political elite will be able to accept correct solution in the event of a vote of no confidence on the part of the people.

The third and final scenario of the revolution in Russia is global modernization. In this case, there will be no clashes, conflicts and manifestations. The ruling elite will finally realize its responsibility to the people and will act solely in its interests.

Naturally, this option will seem a little naive to most of our readers, but we want to believe in the best.

Video news

The article was written specifically for the site “2019 Year of the Pig”: https://website/

On June 8, 2016, a scientific expert session was held at the Central House of Journalists on the topic: “Is a revolution awaiting Russia?”, Organized by the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology ( Sulakshina Center).

Within the framework of the round table, which took place in the form of a scientific brainstorming session, an analysis of the development dynamics was presented modern Russia, as well as given a medium-term forecast for the next 5-6 years, the participants of the event were presented with a scientific monograph "Is Russia waiting for a revolution?".

General Director of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology, Doctor of Political Science, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor Stepan Sulakshin made a scientific report "The problem of Russia's transition to the post-Putin post-liberal historical stage”, putting forward the key thesis: “a peaceful, legitimate“ revolution ”in Russia, as its decisive renewal, is a formula and a requirement of the time!”.

Stepan Sulakshin explained what the transition might be. In his opinion, a completely recognizable and specific type of political regime has developed and is self-reproducing in Russia, which will historically be designated as Putinism, and the country is slipping into a full-scale crisis.

Putinism is extremist liberalism, cosmopolitanism and the destruction of the country's civilizational identity, corruption and privatization, turning the country into a "rogue country". In addition, it is also an archaic raw material export economy, the widespread degradation of almost all the potentials of the country's statehood, the factors of its success and stability, the path to collapse in the geopolitical "graveyard". “The political regime and its practice, the model of the country are not reformable. They can only be replaced,” Stepan Sulakshin is convinced.

The results of studies by the Sulakshin Center have shown that the likelihood of a “color” revolution in Russia is very high, it is being prepared and led, first of all, by the authorities themselves. And if nothing is done, then after several years of degradation, the processes will become explosive. Therefore, today society needs to understand what awaits it and prepare for what will happen. According to the forecasts of the Center, the country is waiting for a revolutionary test. This will happen soon - at the turn of 2020. There is a way out of the current situation, which is capable of breaking the gloomy prospects - this is the new constitution of the country.

The "Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology" has developed a draft Constitution of Russia, based on the success and viability of the country. The country needs a healthy real ideological opposition force, that is, a second force, and not a liberal Russian-phobic government and a liberal Russian-phobic "opposition", Stepan Sulakshin is convinced. The center sees new strength in the New Type Party.

The analysis shows that the scenario of a revolution in the country is very likely. And Russia can approach it from two sides: on the one hand, there will be power, a fifth column and a geopolitical enemy, and on the other hand, the historical inevitability of turning on the social “immune system” of the country and people.

The question is how radically the country's basic structures should be restructured. It seems to some that the costs of a decisive transition give rise to too significant new threats and risks, to the point that this is a service to those who would like to destroy our country. Others are sure that the programmed scenario of the death of the country is irrevocably realized. And the main share in this scenario is played by the current government - regardless of whether they understand it or not.

Vardan Baghdasaryan- Deputy Head of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor in his scientific report spoke about the “World Revolution. current challenges the coming Russian transformation”.

“Against the background of a series of “color revolutions”, which in reality are not revolutions, but a variant of a new type of war, the revolutions themselves are reduced in public discussion to the technologies of the struggle for power. They are perceived as something unconditionally negative. Maidan and Tahrir are mixed with the Great French and Great October revolutions. In fact, revolution is a historically indispensable condition for development. Development, in contrast to growth, involves a change in the essential characteristics of the system. In this sense, we can talk, for example, about the Christian revolution, through which the transition from the ancient model of life to the medieval one took place. Today the world is in a state of systemic crisis. And the theme of revolution, as a way out of the impasse that has arisen, is again on the current agenda.

Once upon a time, historically, revolutions could be carried out on a scale nation state. Links with outside world at that time did not yet play a decisive role, and it was possible. At present, it is becoming more and more problematic to create separate islands of systemic transformation. Therefore, we can talk either about the global systemic transformation, or about creating an alternative world-system. For this, there must be a world-transforming movement, a new International, an International of future humanity.

National liberation revolutions raise the question of the coming to power of national forces instead of the colonial administration and compradors. This is certainly an important task, but insufficient. The revolutionary state included in the system of colonial relations will be re-colonized. In a social revolution, posing a question is a change in the system of the social order of life. But even this is not enough. A system transformed on moral principles with a person who does not correspond to its level will inevitably be reborn, the revolutionary spirit will be defeated by conformism and consumerism. And from here main question about a revolution that is not indicated in traditional classifications - an anthropological revolution, the transformation of a person,” Vardan Baghdasaryan believes.

“On the legal aspects of the scientific discourse about the revolution in Russia,” said the head of the legal group of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology, Ph.D. Alexander Gaganov.

In his speech, he noted that the scientific discussion about the revolution in Russia can and should be carried out within the framework of the current legislation. The speaker drew the attention of those present to the fact that calls for illegal and violent actions, such as terrorist and extremist activities, as well as the planning of such actions, the distribution of roles and other preparations for the commission of crimes, are outside the law.

At the same time, the concept of extremist activity is very broad and includes such acts as public calls for a violent change in the foundations of the constitutional order. The key feature, without which there will be no corpus delicti, is the violence of the proposed changes.

Blogger Alexander Rusin(Amfora) noted in his speech that “the mentality of the Russian people is such that they always wait for initiatives from above, instructions, commands. “You can see better at the top,” the people reason and patiently wait for the tsar and the boyars themselves to begin to change something, Rusin explained. “Of course, the patience of the people is not unlimited, but it is much greater than the patience of the elite, and most importantly, the people cannot organize themselves and make a decision as quickly as the representatives of the elite.”

According to him, two possible scenarios for a change of power in Russia can be distinguished: “a palace-apparatus coup and the following revolution from above, which will consist in a change of course, political structure and the economic model of the country, and the palace-apparatus coup, then the loss of power by the organizers of the coup as a result of a struggle for power or incompetence, then - a revolution from below.

At the same time, he stressed that it is not the organizers who are to blame for the coup, if they occur, but mainly those who are in power now. “They had to carry out deep systemic reforms over the past years, which they have not carried out,” the blogger specified the reason for this state of affairs.

With his own view on this problem, the writer and public figure Alexey Kungurov. “The collapse of Putinism is not a question. The only question is what will follow next, and there are only two options: revolution, that is, the crisis transition of society and the state to a qualitatively new form existence, or degradation, that is, the irreversible destruction existing system without transformation into a new one,” the blogger said, emphasizing that “degradation is what is happening now, and has been for a very long time.” - Degradation is a generally comfortable process. After all, it is much more pleasant to sit back, eating up grandfather's inheritance, than to work up a sweat so that your unlucky granddaughter has something to eat. Degradation is a conscious choice of the elites of the Russian Federation, enthusiastically supported by the masses. The problem is that it is impossible to degrade forever - any degradation ends with decomposition. When grandfather's inheritance is finally eaten away, you will either have to work again or fall apart.

Within the framework of the round table, a presentation of the scientific monograph " Is Russia in for a revolution?».

The publication of the monograph, of course, an important event nowadays: it considers the state of Russia, the medium-term forecast of the country's development, introduces a formalization of the concept of its model, and also shows that the current liberal model incompatible with the success and stability of Russia.

According to the authors of the monograph, a change in the model as an alternative to geopolitical disintegration is inevitable. The book discusses the factors, algorithm and possible scenarios for Russia's transition to a post-liberal model of the country. It is convincingly shown that the future model of development and life of Russia is most likely in the form of a moral and just state. The probabilities of various scenarios of the post-liberal transition predicted for the period of 2020 are calculated.

Also with their reports at the scientific expert session were:

Nesmiyan Anatoly Evgenievich- writer, public figure: “The social dynamics of the ideological and power transition through experience Arab spring and Ukraine";

Dubovsky Sergey Vasilievich- Institute for System Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Laboratory, Ph.D. in Physics and Mathematics: “The neighborhood of 2020 is the time of social and criminal catastrophes”;

Zaderey Valery Alexandrovich- Vice President People's Academy Sciences, Doctor of Economics: “Control interception instead of revolution”;

Efremov Oleg Anatolievich- Associate Professor of the Department of Social Philosophy and Philosophy of History, Faculty of Philosophy, Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, Ph.D.: “Is a “color revolution” possible in the conditions of “theatrical democracy”?”;

Belov Petr Grigorievich- Professor of MAI (National research university), Doctor of Technical Sciences: "Forecasting the probability of a revolutionary situation by modeling";

Skurlatov Igor Valerievich- Executive Director of the National Assistance Fund sustainable development regions: "Prospects for the socio-political development of Russia";

Nikandrov Alexey Vsevolodovich- Associate Professor of the Department of Philosophy of Politics and Law of the Faculty of Philosophy of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Ph.D. in Political Science: "Revolution and political creativity: the concept of H. Arendt";

Zernov Sergey Vladimirovich- senior Researcher IPU RAS, candidate of social sciences: "Open self-government as a decisive factor in the management revolution";

Prokhvatilov Vladimir Viktorovich- President of the Academy of Real Politics: "Scenarios for a Regional Maidan and Revolutionary Jihad in Russia";

Skoblikov Evgeny Andreevich- President of the Fund for Financial Initiatives, PhD in Economics: "Only the Third Way can lead to a moral state";

Terekhin Alexey Dmitrievich- Auditor of the Public Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation: " driving forces societies of the 21st century. A fulcrum for a revolution of the world”;

Khristenko Sergey Vasilievich- Correspondent of the newspaper "Bolshevik Hammer and Sickle": "Revolution? Goals! Resources! Methods!”;

Puntus Valery Ivanovich- MOIP, leader of the seminar, Ph.D.: "An alternative to the revolution in Russia."

As a result of the discussion, a collection of materials will be published and distributed.

Revolutionary moods in a number of countries are increasingly leading to irreparable changes, as a result of which the geopolitical map peace. Residents of the Russian Federation consider the revolution one of the cardinal and frightening changes that may affect the state in the near future. The prerequisites for riots and the possibility of a change of power are most often manifested in the economic and political planes. However, the changes achieved as a result of such events are most often negative and further reduce the level of security and quality of life.

Will there be a revolution in Russia in 2019 and a change of power, what can changes in political life countries and what experts say about it - these and other questions have become the most relevant among the people in recent years. Genuine interest in the political life of the country is directly related to the actions of the authorities and the increase economic problems. Dissatisfaction with the work of the government, misunderstanding of actions related to internal and foreign policy, as well as a decline in living standards and increased pressure from Western "partners" affect the mood of the population and has a more negative connotation.

Many Russians acknowledge that economic stability and confidence in the future have declined markedly over the course of last year, which generates a certain excitement among the people. The revolutionary mood is intensifying, and not without the "help" of the aggressive policy of European and Western countries. Despite this, most experts are sure that in 2019, the inhabitants of Russia should not be afraid of such drastic changes as the displacement of the current government through a revolution.

Possible scenarios for revolutionary action

It is quite difficult to predict the future fate of a huge state that has a special look at any ongoing events in the world. However, experts can name the scenarios that can be used if a revolution does happen in the Russian Federation.

• The most likely is a riot - mass discontent of citizens in the form of active actions and radical disobedience to the authorities. The most active categories take part in the protests civil society most of them are students and workers.
• The other most likely scenario for Russia is a popular referendum, resulting in a voluntary surrender of power. This option is widely used in democratic countries where the principle of democracy operates.

Prerequisites and risks

The majority of the population of the Russian Federation does not see the revolution as an optimal way out of the most difficult situations. All radical methods of solving economic problems are considered negative and unpromising by the country's inhabitants. Despite this, many experts believe that such a development of the current situation is quite possible and has enough prerequisites. According to the opinion and forecasts of experts, there are several reasons why a revolution and a revolt against the current government is possible in Russia.

Some of the main ones are: corruption of the state apparatus, too large a gap between the incomes of different segments of the population and a protracted economic crisis. The sharp depreciation of the national currency and the fall in real incomes of the country's residents against the backdrop of the inaction of the governing structures lead to the fact that the people's dissatisfaction with the existing government is growing.

The first signals that a revolutionary mood is brewing in Russia appeared in the wake of the economic crisis of 2014-2015. During that period, there was a significant decrease general level life of the population, significantly reducing the average income of citizens. However, according to reports from the government and other authorities, there were no preconditions for concern and deterioration in the well-being of Russians. However, in reality, the population felt a sharp decline in the economy, which was reflected primarily in a decrease in wages and an increase in unemployment.

In subsequent years, the situation only worsened, and many experts have already seriously started talking about the fact that by 2019 the shutdown in Russia could escalate to a certain limit. Citizens' dissatisfaction is also aggravated by the foreign policy situation. Situations that have developed in neighboring states, sanctions from the West and others negative factors influence the general background of moods in a negative way.

Given the totality of all the reasons, there is a high probability and risk that radical moods among the population will only worsen. That is why analysts believe that the period of 2018-2019 is of particular danger. According to experts, the period of presidential elections was the most difficult.

However, if care incumbent president in 2018 could become the main impetus for mass strikes and demonstrations throughout the Russian Federation, then in 2019 the situation will gradually begin to stabilize. Thus, the risks that a revolutionary movement in Russia in 2019 will lead to a mass riot and a change of power will occur are quite small. That is why experts assure that this year will pass calmly and without radical changes.

Predictions

Majority modern people they are not very trusting of the predictions of clairvoyants and other soothsayers, but everyone is closely following the predictions of such people. According to Vanga, one of the most famous soothsayers of the 20th century, it is the Russian Federation that will emerge from the crisis by 2020 and regain its leading position in the world rankings.

Wolf Messing predicted huge changes for Russia in the 21st century and called it a superpower, which all European and Western countries. Separate predictions also agree that the Russian Federation should take the lead and regain its status as one of the main countries in the world.

Everything will happen at lightning speed. During the day we will hear about small riots, and in three or four hours the center of the Russian capital will be crowded with thousands of columns of demonstrators. The first shot towards the people will be the suicide of the authorities.

The well-known Russian political strategist, doctor of historical sciences, professor at MGIMO Valery Solovey believes that a revolution will take place in Russia and in his article he described the scenario for the development of events.

At the same time, Valery Solovey prefaces his article with the following words: “I will repeat once again, especially for lovers of political denunciations. Everything that is written in this note is nothing more than summary what I have been expounding in my articles and books over the past few years. Moreover, some of these publications were awarded with awards and prizes.

Here is the text of this publication by Valery Solovyov in full:

All revolutions are the same happy families Lev Tolstoy. All of them go through three stages in their development: the moral delegitimization of the current government, mass political protest, and the overthrow of the old regime. Sometimes these stages practically coincide in time, sometimes they are separated from each other by some interval. For Russia, most likely, the second is true.

Moral delegitimization is also a revolution, but a psychological one. It always precedes a political revolution. Before overthrowing the government, people must massively despise and hate it. This is exactly what is happening in Russia now. In the parliamentary elections, the "party of crooks and thieves" suffered a moral and political defeat.

Despite the grandiose machine of administrative pressure and falsifications, it lost more than 10% in comparison with the results of the last elections and did not achieve the goal of a constitutional majority. And this is according to official data. According to unofficial, but quite reliable, "the party of crooks and thieves" lost in all major Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Her reliable support remains only North Caucasus and some others national republics. (Now, I hope, it is clear why the North Caucasus is heavily subsidized to the detriment of the Russian regions?)

This is not the end, or even the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. The structure of power, lovingly nurtured and nurtured for the past 11 years, began to fail and crumble. In a number of regions, the bureaucratic corps played cautiously but consistently against the EdRa.

At the same time, people are not yet ready to take to the streets en masse and defend their right to free choice. The unanimous vote against the "party of swindlers and thieves" does not automatically lead to a collective street protest.

Moreover, after the parliamentary elections, there will be a decline in public activity for some time, which the authorities consider with relief as stabilization. But in reality this will turn out to be nothing more than a temporary pause before a new stage of the revolution. The way they will pass presidential elections will give a powerful new impetus to the moral delegitimization of power. But even more important will be the actions of the authorities after the elections.

Contrary to popular belief, revolutions are not necessarily preceded by a deep socio-economic crisis and mass impoverishment. Many revolutions took place against the backdrop of relative social welfare. Incomparably more important for the political revolution is the so-called "revolution of expectations", that is, the situation when people lived well and hoped to live even better, but their hopes suddenly collapsed. This “revolution of expectations” will be fully experienced by our fellow citizens next year, when it becomes clear that the authorities are not going to fulfill the election promises, there is no money in the treasury and it is necessary to tighten their belts. It is easy to imagine the reaction of the military and police, who will be able to pay the promised increase in salaries for only a few months.

It is next year that the so-called new “social” (but in fact completely anti-social) laws on education and medicine will come into force, depriving the population of the opportunity to receive quality medical care and education free of charge. In 2012, the fiscal pressure on businesses and the population will sharply increase. Meanwhile, all studies say: increased fiscal pressure from a morally illegitimate government is a direct road to revolution.

Everything starts suddenly. Revolutions always start unexpectedly even for the revolutionaries themselves, the day and hour of none of them was predicted. By no means an ordinary mind of his era, Ulyanov-Lenin wrote bitterly in January 1917 that his generation would not live to see the revolution in Russia, perhaps children would see it.

An insignificant occasion will give impetus to a grandiose dynamic. Anything can serve as this reason: a street picket, a small rally, a spontaneous blocking of the road, the funeral of another victim of ethnic crime, a car hitting a woman with a child with a flashing light (If the straw is dry, sooner or later it will light up). And suddenly - and this is always "suddenly" - a small group of people will begin to turn into a crowd of many thousands, which will move into the city center, sweeping away the flimsy police cordons along the way.

Everything will happen at lightning speed. In the afternoon we will hear about small riots, and in three or four hours the center of the Russian capital will be flooded with thousands of columns of demonstrators, who will be joined by riot police. This is how a nation is born.

And what about the authorities, is it really not going to resist? Will try, of course. It is unlikely, however, that people who are afraid of whistling at a concert will muster the courage to give the order to open fire on civilians. Unless they really want to repeat the fate of Ceausescu and Gaddafi.

And it is absolutely incredible that SUCH orders were carried out. Those who give them away can hope to escape to their billions, accumulated by overwork in the field of serving the Motherland, but where do the executors of criminal orders flee? And crimes against humanity, as you know, have no statute of limitations and do not deserve indulgence.

The first shot towards the people will be the suicide of the authorities. Foreseeing its own future, it does and will do everything to delay its own end. However, the notorious Russian “tightening the screws” will only lead to the breakdown of the rusty thread and the final destruction of the power structure. Violence emanating from a morally illegitimate regime does not cause fear and submission, but an explosion of indignation and an irresistible desire of the masses to overthrow it - such is the axiom of revolutions.

This, by the way, is the answer to those who associate the revolution with mass violence and bloodshed. Is there an idea for which those in power are willing to die? Or will there be fanatics willing to die for their offshore accounts?

Those who are obsessed with profit inevitably lose to people driven by the desire for freedom and justice. All revolutions in European countries The past 20 years have passed peacefully and without bloodshed, and Russia will not be an exception. Even in Romania, the overthrow of the Ceausescu regime was accompanied by only local and short-term violence.

Peaceful revolutions happen very quickly. The question of power in Russia will be resolved as quickly as in 1917 and 1991 - in three or four days ... "

Tags: Russia, Politics, revolution