What will happen on November 11th? The digital code of the bloody revolution being prepared by liberals and neo-Nazis has been deciphered

“Excuse me, but did you come for 11/5/17?” — a schoolboy with glasses asked me embarrassedly. Hearing an affirmative answer, he looked around in confusion and asked main question of the day: “Why are there so few people here?”

In the morning, the area in front of Smolny and the surrounding streets were clogged with police cars and trucks with riot police. The “cosmonauts” looked around boredly. By 12 o’clock, supporters of the leader of the extremist movement “Artpodgotovka” (banned in Russia) Vyacheslav Maltsev were supposed to arrive at Smolny. He had been promising a revolution in Russia for more than two years, and its date had long been known—11/5/17. All this time, activists “were not waiting, but preparing.” And not just an ordinary rally, but a forceful seizure of power and regime change.

A few days before the cherished date, unprecedented activity reigned in opposition chats. The Maltsevskys passed the Molotov cocktail recipe to each other and discussed the burning of riot police. “Goals: capture of Smolny, Legislative Assembly and regional television centers (from there you can call on people to come out and support the protest).” “You may not be in the forefront, you may not fight, but you must come. Take sandwiches, a first aid kit, tea with you and watch history.” “Whoever does not come has suffered, a coward and a slave.” And everything like that. Before the start of the “new” promised by Maltsev historical era“There were only a few hours left.

But in fact, less than 100 people came to Smolny. Some of them consisted of schoolchildren who are now ready to support any rallies against the current government. Truckers huddled in their corner. A dozen elderly women nearby loudly condemned the low protest activity. One of them even put on thermal underwear and took extra socks with her in hopes of a revolution.

- Yes, everyone just left for Moscow! Everything happens there!

- All the men didn’t come! And the women came. We are a women's battalion.

The women attracted the attention of journalists, but the presence of cameras did not please them.

“Who did you come here for? For us or for Putin? — the most active “revolutionary” attacked the media representatives.

The police on duty examined each suspicious character. And among the latter, oddly enough, were “prepared” people. The first to be detained was a man who was carrying an entire arsenal in his backpack - an ax, pyrotechnics and gas masks. Two more boys had medical masks and brilliant green with them. The law enforcement officers, of course, also studied opposition chats and discussed among themselves. Even the day before, they read that this green stuff was intended for them.

A strange-looking man was detained with a bottle of either alcohol or a Molotov cocktail. One young man, probably hoping for real revolutionary skirmishes, brought with him several packages of bandages. “Why do you need so much?” - The police were surprised. But no reason was found for sanctions. In total, from Smolny, according to various estimates, from 7 to 11 people were detained.

At a distance from the police, young guys in sportswear with hoods on their heads stood in groups in the square. They watched what was happening from under their brows, but no one dared to take any active action, although it could only be expected from them. These are the guys who, in theory, should form the core of Maltsev’s fans. But in reality there were much fewer of them than on the Internet.

Now you can no longer understand how exaggerated the discussions about the allegedly prepared Molotov cocktails and other weapons were. Even on the eve of the action, the FSB reported on the cleanup. According to the department, on November 3, in the Moscow region, the illegal activities of the clandestine cell of the Artpodgotovka movement were identified and suppressed, “planning to commit actions on November 4-5 in the form of arson of administrative buildings using incendiary mixtures and attacks on police officers.” Searches and detentions of Maltsev’s supporters also took place in other regions. So the protest was decapitated in any case. Maltsev himself has long been hiding from the law abroad.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the promised revolution in St. Petersburg turned out to be even more pitiful than other actions of the democrats. After the coup at Smolny failed, Maltsev’s supporters moved to St. Isaac’s Cathedral. Riot police and police were already waiting for them there, again outnumbering the protesters. And two more wedding processions and a group of teenage girls who were having a meeting with a certain video blogger.

“Let's all hug! I wish you happiness!" — the blogger exclaimed joyfully. The girls took selfies and didn’t even notice that they were in the midst of a potential revolution.

The police detained me rather rudely young man in a “Glory to Rus'” sweatshirt, who refused to take off his balaclava. Another teenager went to the station because he had pepper spray on him. The law enforcement officers hesitantly tried to disperse the small crowd a couple of times, but each time they seemed to give up on all this: they would disperse on their own. An hour later it happened.

Meanwhile, the inhabitants of the chat rooms living in a parallel reality continued to actively write messages. The fact that the revolution had begun was only the first step. There were reports of some “mass arrests” in St. Petersburg. Although in reality they turned out to be massive only in Moscow - more than 260 people were taken to police departments there. The dissatisfied complained that Alexei Navalny was bringing hundreds of times more people onto the streets.

The result was an amazing “revolution 2.0”: no activity in reality, but discussions about “rocking paddy wagons”, “holding combat positions” and “recruiting power group" in the Internet.

“11/5/17 failed. Time to prepare for revenge. I encourage all supporters to write to me for further regrouping/coordination. We can’t give up now!” — another anonymous person was already scribbling in the group.

Everyone was waiting for what Maltsev would say about this. Some already thought that he had “merged.” But during the day, the disgraced activist still got in touch with his comrades.

“Nothing happened... Nothing happened in terms of failure. We have taken a step forward. The revolution continues,” he said in live on YouTube.

Sofia Mokhova

Year two thousand seventeen Gregorian calendar declared the year of ecology in Russia. But it is unlikely that many citizens of the federation think about this date. But associations easily arise with the centenary of another famous event - the October Bolshevik revolution. Is it possible that the revolution will repeat in 2017? Will the coming year be as full of terrible events as its namesake from the last century? Sociologists, ordinary citizens, forecasters and the press are talking about this. At the beginning of the 20th century, celebrations of the first anniversary of the communist takeover began immediately - in November 2017. The solemn date was celebrated with a parade and a two-day weekend. But in 1991 the government canceled the parade and, a short time, the communists themselves. And since 1992, the holidays were reduced to one day - November 7, and then replaced completely. More details about how the situation with holidays and weekends will be in the coming year can be found in the article about the year or in other materials on this topic on the website.

Revolution of 2017: what will reliably happen in Russia

• the so-called “Messages to the Communists of the Future” will be opened. The most famous of them is kept in Sevastopol behind a cast lid-table on the wall of a former military electronics plant. The communists of the past sealed a similar message in a capsule located in the stele of the Rostock monument in the city of Penza;

• potential communists - members of the Komsomol youth organization, also left messages to their peers. They plan to remove one of them from the capsule in Ussuriysk. The contents of such capsules are usually “letters to the future” written by ordinary citizens Soviet Union, therefore, by reading them, it will be possible to grasp the spirit and expectations of the past era;

• various videos, documentaries and art films dedicated to this event;

• members of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will hold their events especially solemnly.

People who wrote messages back in 2017 were confident that at this time the socialist ideas of Marx-Lenin would prevail throughout the world, because they were infallible. They also believed that the 21st century would usher in an era of equal, just, beautiful and infallible communist society. You will soon be able to read about all this in messages from the past. And it will be possible to sum up and analyze the history of the revolution on November 5, 2017, after the weekend in honor of National Unity Day.

Why are they talking about this

In 2004, some Duma deputies initiated the replacement of the old Bolshevik holiday with a new one - National Unity Day. It was proposed to celebrate it on November 4th. It was on this day, back in 1612, that people’s militias liberated the Russian capital from invaders. It was assumed that replacing the holiday date would give new meaning November celebrations, recalling the unity of all classes and nationalities for the good of the Fatherland. At the same time, the holiday has revived nationalist tendencies in many cities, which are expressed in characteristic parades and rallies. And some part of the Russian population, apparently out of habit, still considers Unity Day to be somehow connected with the October Revolution.

The very date of the future revolution – November 5, 2017 – arose from a talk show by Russian political commentator Vyacheslav Maltsev. With enviable persistence, he systematically explains to his fans on You Tube his own vision of the situation in Russia. More than one hundred thousand subscribers follow Maltsev’s “Bad News” on the nationalist channel Artpodgotovka. The presenter considers the current head to be the main problem of Russia and calls on everyone to forcefully change power, while recommending that they remain within the framework of the Constitution. The presenter calls the fifth of November not a sacred date, but a deadline by which all the necessary prerequisites, according to his assumptions, will be fully mature. The expected revolution of November 5, 2017 reminds Maltsev of another significant event that happened, albeit in another country - the Guy Fawkes Gunpowder Plot. The interethnic and interreligious difficulties that the Russian Federation is experiencing and the growing nationalist sentiments make possible, if not a global coup, then global unrest on the ground, therefore, it is possible that Maltsev has grounds for such forecasts.

Revolution in Russia in 2017: to be or not to be

Although many smart people, to put it mildly, are dissatisfied with what is happening in their fatherland, they understand that miracles cannot be expected and that every coup brings with it unrest and mass anarchy. A large part of the country is fascinated by television and feels good in the painted world. The same well-known party wins the elections every time, and it seems that this will always be the case.

Of course, in such conditions, a quick solution seems to be the most optimal. Throw out everyone who governs poorly and install new ones who will govern well. A simple and understandable recipe for many fuels hope for a revolution in November 2017. However, the coup of 1917 was supported by people tired of war and empty promises. Here one cannot count on such support - the current political system receives approval and encouragement precisely from the masses. Any attempt at a coup will most likely encounter silent popular disapproval or popular aggression. Because a coup is instability and a direct threat to an established existence. At the same time, we should not forget that incredible efforts to maintain stability, at all costs, drive problems inside, instead of solving them. This means that discontent is gradually maturing, provoking an explosion and violence.

In fact, it is not so important for people to find the answer to the question: Will there be a revolution in 2017? ? What is much more important is what happens after, what it will lead to. If the nationalists' forecasts come true, then border closures and new privatization laws are likely, as well as inevitable inflation coupled with a shortage of necessary goods. And a person who was raised by a repressive state, and who learned to get along with it, lives by one principle: not to lose what he has. There are about 45% of such citizens in Russia, according to the director of the Levada Center. At the same time, cynicism, internal aggression and a sense of personal inferiority are growing in society. Frustration of needs results in increased level aggression in society. Moreover, this aggression is skillfully redirected by means mass media to an external enemy. Society as a whole is characterized by apathy, with outbreaks of impotent irritation. And politics is disgusting - after all, the majority do not believe that they have any influence on the decisions of the authorities. Life revolves around the interests of your family and your own needs; The main thing here is to fence off a controlled living space for yourself personally. Anyone can be in power, as long as there is stability and that Russia is respected in the world. As long as the government copes with at least one of these demands, there is no need to worry - no revolution will receive popular approval and support.

Two Russians - three marches

The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported more than three hundred people were detained for “attempting to organize mass riots,” and about 100 more people were arrested on the eve of X-Day, which nationalist blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev appointed on November 5. However, as it turned out, some remained free. I spoke with one of Maltsev’s active supporters.

Since 2013, in almost all episodes of his video blog “Artpodgotovka,” Maltsev has stated that the revolution in Russia will happen on November 5, 2017, because it “ deadline, when everything is ripe." As a result, Maltsev himself was accused of extremism in Russia, and he was forced to go abroad. But even from France, Maltsev called on his supporters to go to city centers on this day.

In his rhetoric, Maltsev exploited the nationalist idea and called himself a national democrat, but, according to real participants in the nationalist movement, his attitude towards them was very conditional. According to one of the nationalist leaders, who is now also in political exile, Yuri Gorsky, Maltsev is rather a Marxist-Leninist. According to Gorsky, he supported Maltsev’s idea when it was presented in a completely different form. The point was that Maltsev, having been elected to parliament, would impeach the current president on November 5th.

However, when Gorsky stood up with a single picket calling for impeachment on the dates indicated by Maltsev near the State Duma building, the author of the idea was indignant - apparently, even then he understood that he would not get into the State Duma.

By the way, one of the versions of Maltsev’s failed revolution is that he was initially a provocateur acting in the interests of the special services. The logic of supporters of this version is clear: nationalists are one of the most radical members of the opposition movement, and if they are identified and neutralized, the protest will become much more harmless. This is exactly what, according to supporters of the “conspiracy theory,” Maltsev and his supposed curators in the authorities were counting on. On the eve of the “Russian March” a number of supporters of the nationalist turn Russian politics was detained. According to Gorsky, some of them have nothing to do with Maltsev.

“Dmitry Shakin, Anton Smirnov, Alexander Gruzinov and Valentin Alekseev are all prominent members of the nationalist movement,” he says. “And “thanks to” Maltsev, they can be prosecuted not just for extremism, but for forming a terrorist group.”

When asked about Maltsev’s connection with the FSB, Gorsky replied that he was not ready to throw such accusations, in addition, he personally “does not have informants from the authorities who could confirm such guesses.” He called Maltsev a “number worshiper” who decided to make a “pajama revolution.” In many ways, Gorsky is right: tens of thousands of people subscribed to the nationalist video blogger’s channel, and only a few hundred came to Manezhnaya on November 5th.

I managed to contact one of the participants in the “Maltsev revolution”; he miraculously escaped arrest and was very angry with his “leader”.

- Why are you free now?

I myself don’t believe in my “happiness”. The fact is that I participated in this story together with my close friend. I came to his house, and we accessed the Internet from one device, it was a tablet with Telegram loaded on it. We planned to destroy our device if this whole story escalated.

- And what happened in the end?

Yes, they told me about the details of the interrogation, in general, apparently, they “fired” all the correspondence, but did not know that two people participated in it.

- What exactly were you preparing?

Specifically, we were going to blow up the building of the Central Election Commission. This was supposed to happen on the night of November 4-5. Besides the two of us, about a dozen people should have approached the Central Election Commission.

- What were you trying to achieve?

We were sure that he had not 500 supporters, but at least 50 thousand, we told him (Maltsev. - A.R.) believed. I'm 22 years old, my colleague is 21, we want the 90s to come back. Then people had a choice.

- Maltsev positions himself as a nationalist, and you are nationalists?

Ha, are you kidding? My mother is Kazakh, my father is Jewish. We are for it new life. We looked at Maltsev and his pens as a means to implement our plans.

- There are civilized ways of protest...

I’ll tell you a secret: everyone who was in our movement supported Navalny. Consider, Navalny is Lenin, and Maltsev is Trotsky.

- What are you going to do now?

I'll go to my grandmother in Riga. It's scary to stay here.

Still from video

Detentions of activists of the Artpodgotovka movement banned in Russia took place this weekend throughout the country. As the FSB of the Russian Federation reported, counterintelligence officers, in cooperation with the police, stopped the activities of cells in Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Kazan, Samara and Saratov.

In Moscow and the region, the first blow to activists was dealt by operatives of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, who, on the eve of the holidays, detained movement participants who were preparing to organize high-profile extremist actions on November 4–5. According to the department, members of an organization banned in Russia planned attacks on police officers and arson of administrative buildings in order to provoke mass riots. “During the events, all members of the cell were detained. 15 Molotov cocktails were seized. The issue of initiating a criminal case against the detainees under Art. 30 and part 2 art. 205 of the Criminal Code of Russia (“ Terrorist act"),” says the FSB website. The department noted that in the interests of the investigation, information about the detained persons is not disclosed.

Already over the weekend, the Moscow police detained those “artillery preparers” who nevertheless decided to go to the protests, and, judging by the seized arsenals, the rallies were planned to be far from peaceful. The capital's headquarters of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia said that on November 5, in the central part of the city, police officers together with employees of the National Guard detained 302 people and took them to the duty stations of the departments of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia.

“During the search, piercing and cutting objects were found on these persons, traumatic weapon, brass knuckles, aerosol cans with irritant gas, flammable liquids, masks, goggles, helmets, other protective equipment, as well as paraphernalia of the Artpodgotovka organization,” the Ministry of Internal Affairs clarified.

Most arrests were made for disobeying police officers and violating the rules of demonstrations. In addition, 19 people were detained for hooliganism.

Before watching this film, I might have put a question mark after the title. But watch it for yourself, and all your questions will disappear too. The same goes for the question: to quit or not to quit?

I won't lie, the video is creepy. For it reveals the very essence of what the current political system is based on. Although there is nothing fundamentally new there, this is perhaps the worst thing. The fact that the nightmare is a kind of behind-the-scenes routine that everyone knows about, but prefers to keep silent about. So as not to become a direct part of this nightmare.

And a couple more theses under the cut, regarding the prospects of the revolution and genetic garbage.

The fact is that these creatures (hardly anyone would call them people) are not some Martians who flew to us on flying tripods and got a job working in prison zones and pre-trial detention centers. Not at all. They, like all of us, were born of a woman. We went to kindergarten and school. Many of them may live near you. Are your neighbors. And there are many of them. Enough to form, and by force and cunning to support the political system.

And the main problem here is that people have to live in a state system that is formed by creatures that are only superficially similar to people, but who, in essence, are not people. And this is a really deep problem that does not have any quick and obvious solution.

Recently I saw a dispute on the Internet where some people convincingly argued that “Russia without Putin will fall apart.” In response, other people argued no less convincingly that Russia would collapse precisely if the Putin regime was not removed from power in the coming years. But both of them are mistaken, because today’s Russia will fall apart in any case, with Putin or without Putin. What with the opposition, what without the opposition. And the reason for this is objective and obvious - power in Russia is now on the side of non-humans. Inhumans can torture and even kill people, and this is for them with impunity. And people know this very well, but they cannot do anything, since they are few and disunited. Whereas non-humans are consolidated and armed, and this film is a clear confirmation of this. Inhumans have POWER, resources, and the ability to decide the fate of people and other nonhumans.

And this is exactly what we need to understand when we talk about a possible revolution in Russia. Revolution requires resources and a powerful revolutionary class. But in fact there is neither one nor the other. Watch the film and you will clearly see IN WHOSE HANDS THE POWER IN RUSSIA IS NOW. And whoever has the power is the one who rules. This is an axiom. Unfortunately for Russia, these creatures are apparently incapable of steering the system toward greater efficiency. This means that sooner or later the system will collapse under the influence of external competition. Yes, yes, Russia has a two-billion-strong China at its side, by the way. And the Chinese system, judging by all the signs, is actually more effective than the current Russian one. And in order to beat this system, power and authority in Russia must pass into the hands of the people. Moreover, this should be everywhere. Not only in the central office (where the concentration of people is more or less high), but also everywhere in the field. And this again raises the question of the revolutionary class, which in fact modern Russia- No. Even if there is a mass rebellion - there is no one to catch the falling standard, some are too stupid, others are too weak, others are incapable of playing in a team - it will be mostly non-humans who will remain at the helm everywhere.

And you know, oddly enough, after watching this film, for some reason I remembered Andreas Breivik, who killed 77 people and now lives in a Norwegian prison, like in a sanatorium. And in Russia, when a person is arrested whose guilt has not yet been proven, he ends up in a pre-trial detention center, at the complete disposal of such mutants. And even if he is marinated there for a couple of years, and then released “due to lack of composition” or “due to lack of evidence,” his mood, to put it mildly, will be spoiled. Of course, if he remains alive and does not “hang himself with a belt” or “throw himself out of a window.”

When in November 2014 I began using the “economic crisis” tag in the Snob news, one of our experts, the head of a large bank, only laughed about it when he learned about it. He said that there is no crisis. The Russian government at that moment also refused to admit that difficult times had come to the country. I saw the opposite: oil was getting cheaper, everything else was getting more expensive, people were saving on food, and what was happening was very reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.

There were many dark events happening in the world that year that I followed closely. And that’s probably why, at the beginning of September, I began to think about leaving Russia, out of harm’s way. At the end of autumn, I flew to Asia for six months, and a few days later, on “Black Tuesday,” experts, officials, and, it seems, all Russian residents in general began to call the crisis a “crisis.”

That same year I thought that in 2017 we would have a revolution. Now it’s difficult to remember whether I read about it in the press, heard about it on the bus or in the company of friends, but this idea was deeply embedded in my head.

Why in 2017? I do not know this. However, there is a feeling that something is coming in the country, in Lately is only getting stronger.

Who predicted the revolution in 2017

One of the first, in December 2005, to announce the 2017 revolution was former Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Vladimir Ryzhkov. He gave an interview in which he pessimistically noted that a new revolution will begin in October 2017 - after the oil runs out.

Vladimir Ryzhkov, professor High school economy (in December 2005):

According to the International Energy Agency, we have exactly 12 years of oil left. When " black gold"will end, the country will be left penniless. The people will begin to storm the Winter Palace, with the only difference that in October 1917 they wanted to seize the government that was sitting there, and in 2017 they will want to steal the museum’s paintings in order to sell them to foreigners and feed their families.

By that time, the thought of revolution was already disturbing the minds of Russians. According to Yandex.News, the first material Russian media, which mentioned both “revolution” and “2017”, was released five months after Ryzhkov’s statement - on February 16, 2006. This was a transcript of the broadcast on Ekho Moskvy, during which the presenter read out a message from a listener named Dmitry: “Accession to the WTO is a planned preparation for the 2017 revolution.”

Over the next six years, the topic of revolution was almost never raised in the media, and they started talking seriously only on the 95th anniversary October revolution. In November 2012, Dr. political sciences Sergei Chernyakhovsky wrote a column for Nakanune.ru entitled “The situations of 1917 and 2017 are very similar,” in which he stated that for the 2017 revolution “there are all the prerequisites.”

The revival began in 2013, when the branch of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in Barnaul held the conference “Revolution 2017: myth or reality.” Local communists believed so much that this was real that on November 7, 2015, the first secretary of the Barnaul city committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Andrei Sartakov, said from the podium: “There will be a revolution in 2017.”

In 2013, the Perm branch of the Lenin Komsomol - youth political organization — posted on Twitter, a demotivator with Vladimir Lenin, who hid around the corner “waiting for 2017.”

In September 2015, economist Evgeny Gontmakher published an article “Revolution 2017” in Moskovsky Komsomolets, in which he compared the prerequisites for the 1917 revolution with the current state of affairs in the country.

Evgeniy Gontmakher, Deputy Director for scientific work Institute of World Economy and international relations(in September 2015):

When compared with autocratic Russia of the 20th century, today provides ample ground for coincidences. For example, there is a rapid lumpenization of the population, which is predetermined by many factors: low quality education, decline popular culture, the abundance of “bad” (i.e., non-prestigious and low-paid) jobs, the concentration of the most active and advanced people in a few big cities, leaving a critical number of “orphan and wretched” in other populated areas.

At the end of 2015, the former head of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, gave a press conference at which he stated that a revolution in Russia was inevitable (however, he did not name the exact date of its start).

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of Open Russia (in December 2015):

We are dealing with a full-fledged anti-constitutional coup. What's the solution? In the absence of the institution of fair elections and other mechanisms for the legal change of power the only way its changes are a revolution. Revolution in Russia is inevitable. The remaining reserves and the threat of reprisals only delay its inevitable onset.

The question is how to make the revolution at least relatively peaceful and effective from the point of view of restoring democratic governance of the country. Revolution is a good word. It can and should be peaceful. Making the revolution peaceful is our common task.

When will the 2017 revolution begin?

November 5, 2017 is the date of the start of a new revolution in Russia. At least, this is what former Saratov deputy, nationalist and video blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev, as well as his many supporters who wrote the numbers “5.11.17” on the walls of houses in Russian cities, think.

Who is this anyway? Vyacheslav Maltsev worked as a deputy in the Saratov Regional Duma from 1994 to 2007, participated in the creation of the local " United Russia“, although he subsequently criticized her more than once. In 2016, he won the Parnassus primaries and almost led to a split within the party after making a statement about “political turmoil.” During the first debate on the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Maltsev called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Didn't get into the State Duma.

Maltsev leads to YouTube channel « Artillery preparation”, where his program “Bad News” is broadcast every week from Monday to Friday. He begins each broadcast with words about how many days are left until the beginning of the “new historical era,” that is, until November 5, 2017. The channel is popular: every episode has " Bad news» about 80-100 thousand views, more than 100 thousand people subscribed to the account.

Residents of Russia have already begun to protest, but active protests will begin in the spring and summer of 2017, says sociologist Natalya Tikhonova.

Natalya Tikhonova, research professor at the Higher School of Economics (in February 2016):

Protest surges are already underway. But they go for economic reasons, locally. And in principle, the authorities are trying to extinguish them - not to put pressure, but to extinguish them. Because so far the population fully shares the concept that the current situation is to blame, firstly, for the fall in oil prices (which is like the weather or the harvest - bad today, good tomorrow), and, secondly, that we are also They are trying to bend it into an arc after Crimea. And the population, of course, is still ready to make certain sacrifices.

People still buy groceries—they just aren’t buying a new refrigerator right now. Or they decided to wait to change the car. Adaptive mechanisms are well known. For example, a quarter of the population returned to their gardens - at one time they stopped planting potatoes, but now they have started again. Well, they didn’t plant it for only about five years, maybe.

That is, nothing fundamentally new happened in their lives. And therefore, in general, there is no sharp protest now. Another thing is that after two to two and a half years of such self-restraint, household resources begin to be exhausted. Shoes break down, clothes wear out, but there is no money for new ones, the TV is broken, the refrigerator is leaking... In general, something starts to happen that requires additional investments. But there is no money for this. That's when it starts to get really annoying. If we have been experiencing crisis phenomena for about a year, then we have another year and a half left before the population begins to be indignant.

Scenario two. A crisis

Leading European economists doubt that protests could begin in Russia due to a recession, Bloomberg journalists found out in February 2016, who interviewed 27 economists from different countries. Only six of them said that protests in Russia are possible with a probability of 50 percent, the rest estimated the chances of revolution at 30 percent. “The political response to poverty is more likely to be apathy rather than revolution,” Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at the Hamburg Berenberg Bank, said at the time.

There is no revolution in Russia and in the ranking of the main threats of 2017, which is prepared annually by Bloomberg. But it does contain a new global economic crisis, which will certainly hit Russia (this happened in 1998 and 2008). In its pessimistic forecast, the publication predicts a repeat of the Asian crisis of 1997 - markets could fall if Donald Trump starts an economic war with China.

Russian economists and experts are also expecting a global economic crisis, and very soon. The fact is that world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations, so another decline can be expected before 2019, says economist Vladislav Inozemtsev.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, director of the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Society (in October 2016):

The world economy is subject to cyclical fluctuations that occur with fairly clear periodicity. The world is now experiencing its seventh year of sustained economic growth. Whatever supports this growth, it will not last forever: serious slowdowns in the US economy were noted in 1980 and 1982, 1991, 2001 and 2008-2009 (while in 2001 there was still growth, while in other cases there was a recession). Judging by the frequency, a new sharp decline should occur between 2016 and 2019, that is, quite soon. And although the US economy did not suffer very much (in 2009, the worst decline in decades was 3.5 percent), stock markets fell by 40-55 percent, and commodity prices fluctuated even more. A repetition of something similar in 2017-2018 would almost certainly cause Russian economy irreparable damage. And what is especially unpleasant is that there is more and more evidence in the world that a crisis is just around the corner.

One of the most prominent private traders in Russia (as RBC puts it) Vasily Oleynik, in turn, believes that in 2017-2018 “something very bad will happen.” And in this situation, according to him, cash will become a reliable asset.

Vasily Oleynik, Itinvest expert (in August 2016):

Something very bad is going to happen in the next two years. When this happens, the most valuable asset will be cash currency. So if you have some kind of safety net, you don’t need to keep it in banks or buy shares. Keep your money in foreign currency, not in euros, but in dollars, francs, and yuan. When disaster strikes, tremendous opportunities open up for you. You just need to manage your cash wisely. Perhaps buy shares that will fall in price to record levels, real estate - whoever has enough for what.

Scenario three. Revolution in our heads

The political situation in Russia will change dramatically in 2017-2018, but not because of the revolution, but thanks to the changes that are already taking place in the mass consciousness of Russians, says the political scientist and one of the most accurate predictors of changes in power (as Gazeta.Ru puts it) ) Valery Solovey.

Valery Solovey, professor at MGIMO (in October 2016):

I don’t believe at all that a bloody revolution will happen in Russia, especially with large-scale apocalyptic consequences like the collapse of the country. Nothing like this will happen.

I am inclined to believe that the political situation in Russia will change dramatically over the next two years. And it seems that changes will begin in 2017. It's not about the magic of numbers, it's not about the fact that this is a centenary - it's just a coincidence. There are some reasons for this forecast.

If we say that everything today is in the hands of the authorities, we must not forget that the government, which has no competitors, necessarily begins to make mistake after mistake. Plus, the general situation is pressing: the country is running out of resources, discontent is growing. It's one thing when you endure it for a year or two. And when they make it clear to you, and you yourself “in your gut” feel that you will have to endure it all your life (20 years of stagnation, what then?), your attitude begins to change.

And you suddenly realize that you have nothing to lose. It turns out that you have already lost everything. So what the hell isn't it - maybe change is better?

Sociologists who engage in qualitative research say that we are on the eve of a radical turn in mass consciousness, which will be very large-scale and deep. And this is a turn away from loyalty to the authorities. We experienced a similar situation at the turn of the 80-90s of the last century, before the collapse of the USSR. Because first revolutions happen in the minds. This is not even the willingness of people to oppose the authorities. This unwillingness to consider it an authority that deserves obedience and respect is what is called a loss of legitimacy.

Scenario four. Nothing

Political scientist and economist Dmitry Travin doubts that a revolution is possible in Russia. In his opinion, the current political situation is not similar to the events of 1917, but rather to the Brezhnev stagnation, but with stores littered with food and with the “ideology of a besieged fortress” in our heads.

Dmitry Travin, professor at the European University (in December 2016):

In connection with the approaching anniversary of the Russian Revolution, in the coming 2017 we increasingly began to look for the features of the fateful 1917. Sometimes they even look for a mystical connection between them, believing that Russia is doomed to convulse precisely in the year 17, and not in any other year.

We will not look for a mystical connection, but if you look at the specific factors that determine social instability, it will be difficult to detect serious similarities between eras. What is common, perhaps, is that political regimes in both cases contain only elements of democracy, and that a significant part Russian elite I don’t like this kind of half-heartedness.

Today everything is completely different from what it was in 1917. Power is legitimate, although it rests not on divine origin, but on the personal charisma of the national leader. The standard of living is declining, but not at all as rapidly as during the First World War. And we fight small, victorious wars, not crazy global ones that exhaust the participants to the limit.

The current situation in Russia is much more reminiscent of the Brezhnev era. The stability of the regime is maintained in conditions where the standard of living of the population is slowly declining, the elites are dissatisfied with what is happening, even the charisma of the leader is gradually dimming, but nothing happens that would predetermine a social explosion. Brezhnev, as we remember, died calmly in his post, and after him two more elderly general secretaries died in the same post before it was decided to announce perestroika. And it was not announced by old people who were accustomed to peaceful life, but representatives of a new generation who, for some reason, sought to build socialism with a human face.

And this despite the fact that, of course, there are plenty of dissatisfied people everywhere. But the distance from discontent, sometimes recorded by mass polls, to a real revolution is huge size. Discontent is nothing more than one of the components of a social explosion. But far from decisive.

It is difficult to say what 2017 will actually be like and what scenario will form its basis. Social tension in society is obviously growing, but I want to believe that this year troubles will still bypass Russia.