Does Belarus have nuclear weapons. Belarus and nuclear disarmament. Kim Jong Il: the beginning of nuclear tests

Almost every day, the media reports new nuclear weapons tests. Russia and the US are testing their nuclear capabilities by launching from various launch vehicles.

Fortunately, before the heat of passion Caribbean Crisis 1962 is still a long way off, but there are troubling questions that we will try to answer.

Who has nuclear weapons today?

Today members of nuclear club» are the USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Probably Israel also has atomic weapons However, the country does not confirm or deny this fact.

The American B-52 will be able to deliver up to 31.5 tons of nuclear bombs and missiles to almost anywhere in the world. Photo: wikipedia.org

The most difficult thing is to detect and destroy nuclear submarines armed with nuclear missiles, mobile ground complexes and nuclear trains. By the way, Russia is actively working on the creation of such a train, armed with six RS-24 Yars ICBMs.

The United States has the most powerful nuclear missile submarine. Their Ohio nuclear submarines have colossal destructive power. Each of them is equipped with 24 missile silos, which is still an unsurpassed world record. In total, the Americans have eighteen such submarines.

The main boats are Trident missiles II D-5, which can be equipped with either 14 W76 warheads with a capacity of 100 kt, or 8 W88 warheads (475 kt).

Thus, having fired the entire ammunition load, Ohio is able to bring down up to 336 warheads on the enemy.

What is a nuclear warhead capable of?

The leadership in the use of nuclear weapons belongs to the United States, which dropped nuclear bombs the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 13-18 kilotons. This was enough to destroy all buildings within a radius of 2 km from the epicenter. Within a radius of 12 kilometers, the buildings suffered more or less significant damage. 90% of people who were at a distance of 800 meters or less from the epicenter died in the first minutes.

For comparison: the power of a modern warhead of the Topol-M complex is 550 Kt, which is about 30 Hiroshima. According to information published by meduza.io, such an explosion is capable of destroying almost all buildings within a radius of 5 kilometers from the epicenter. destruction varying degrees gravity will occur within a radius of 30 kilometers.

The range of modern nuclear missiles is 8-11 thousand km, which is enough to hit any target on Earth. The accuracy of these deadly products is quite high. For example, Russian rocket RS-18 "Stiletto" has a circular probable deviation of the order of 350 meters.

What are the non-use guarantees?

The whole theory of deterrence is based on the inevitability of mutual destruction in the event of a nuclear conflict. In Soviet times, such a guarantee was the “Perimeter” system, or “Dead Hand”, as it was called in the West.

The "dead hand" was endowed with the ability to analyze the change in the military and political situation in the world - the machine evaluated the commands received over a certain period of time, and based on them it could conclude that there was "something wrong" in the world.

If the brain of the "Perimeter" decided that the country was inflicted nuclear strike and all leadership is destroyed, then the system is activated to release all the remaining nuclear arsenal. "Perimeter" could bring the team not only to silo-based missiles, but also to missile submarines equipped with nuclear weapons, control centers of the Air Force, Navy and Strategic Missile Forces, naval and long-range missile-carrying aircraft.

Last year, Russia on the planned modernization of the "Dead Hand" automatic control system.

"Journal of Theory international relations and world politics" writes that today the United States and other members of the nuclear club understand the essence of the emerging "offensive deterrence" in different ways. For the Americans, it is important to coerce Russia, China and illegal nuclear powers to reduce nuclear potentials. For Moscow and Beijing, it is to encourage the United States to abandon steps that are unfriendly towards them.

Who theoretically can start a nuclear war?

Tensions exist today between many nuclear-weapon powers. Russia does not have the most best relationship with the United States, with India - with Pakistan, North Korea also threatens the Americans.

From the moment a decision is made to pressing the “red button”, a very short period of time passes, during which the fate of millions of people is decided. So, Hillary Clinton said that it takes about 4 minutes from the moment an order is given to the people responsible for launching a nuclear weapon do it.

Military observer Alexander Golts in an interview with meduza.io said that he decided to start nuclear war only a leader who has "supervalues" can. That is, someone for whom there is something more important than the survival of their own people.

“In this case, the doctrine of mutual deterrence ceases to work: after all, this leader is not afraid that irreparable damage will be caused to his country. In addition, it is required that such a leader would not be bound by the need to consult with anyone. North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un best meets these criteria..

Nuclear summer or winter: what will a nuclear war lead to?

What will happen after the exchange of nuclear strikes? John Gates, a professor at the American College of Wooster, is sure that a nuclear summer will come. In his book The US Army and Irregular Warfare, Gates suggested, after numerous nuclear explosions, as well as the numerous fires caused by them, the temperature on Earth will rise by several degrees.

According to another version, a nuclear winter may come. This was first mentioned in Nuclear Winter: global implications multiple nuclear explosions” (Nuclear Winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions) in 1983.

In it, scientists came to the conclusion that the main effect of the explosions will be the cooling of the Earth, since the soot that has risen into the air will cover the Sun. In many regions of the earth, the temperature will drop below zero degrees, and this will last for about a year.

In 2007-2008, a scientist at Rutgers University, Alan Robock, as a result of research, came to the conclusion that after a global nuclear conflict, soot will be in upper layers atmosphere for about 10 years. At the same time, in North America the temperature will drop by 20 degrees Celsius, and in Eurasia - by 30.

Scientists Luc Oman and Georgy Stenchikov believe that after nuclear war nuclear fall is coming. They wrote about this in their paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. According to their calculations, if about 150 million tons of soot are emitted into the atmosphere, the temperature on the Earth's surface will decrease by an average of seven to eight degrees Celsius. And even after 10 years, the temperature will remain 4 degrees below normal.

Belarus may deploy nuclear forces.

During the visit of the head of the Ministry of Defense Russian Federation to Belarus, Sergei Shoigu and Andrei Ravkov touched upon the topic of strategic military partnership between the two countries. It was mainly about the implementation of the Plan of joint activities to ensure military security Union State.

The main question concerned the deployment of the US military in Poland, in connection with which, Belarus and Russia should take appropriate measures to ensure security.

"The plans of the Polish government to place on permanent basis division of the US Armed Forces on its territory are counterproductive and do not contribute to maintaining stability and strengthening regional security. Under these conditions, we are forced to take retaliatory measures and must be ready to neutralize possible military threats in all directions.” - said Sergei Shoigu.

Nevertheless, according to experts, the tension at the Belarusian border, as well as at the border of the Union State, will continue to grow, in connection with which, nuclear weapons can be deployed on the territory of Belarus, however, such a measure is extreme, and it will be implemented only if subject to strong military pressure from the West.

“The answer could be the transfer to Belarus of one or more brigades of operational-tactical missile systems"Iskander", which are armed ground forces RF in the Western Military District, and maybe in the Central Military District. At a speed of 70 kilometers per hour with a power reserve of a thousand kilometers, in 12-15 hours, the Iskander complexes from the territory of the Western Military District can arrive on the territory of Belarus on their own and within a few tens of minutes can be prepared for firing.<…>If this is not a temporary raid, but permanent deployment, then you will need hangars to accommodate military equipment, repair zones are needed, and most importantly, barracks to accommodate personnel. The rest of the infrastructure is present in Belarus, which provides ample room for maneuver.” - said military expert Alexander Alesin.

Nevertheless, the likelihood that Belarus will take such measures remains almost unrealistic, which is due to the intentions of this state to partner not only with Russia, but also with the West.

“Belarus is a peace-loving state, striving to keep aloof, exclusively within its own interests. The authorities of this country are well aware that if a nuclear weapon, and the Iskanders have the ability to use nuclear warheads, then Western weapons will be aimed not only at Russia, but also at Belarus " , - the site analyst emphasizes.

In response to US sanctions, Belarus threatened to regain its nuclear status. And on the same day, Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a Russian air base in Belarus. It is possible that Russian aircraft will be carriers of nuclear missiles. It looks like we're heading back to a full-blown cold war.

Belarus has threatened the West with a possible withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). According to official Minsk, the United States and Great Britain, by applying economic sanctions against Belarus, violated their obligations towards the country. That is why Minsk may cease to comply with these conditions. This, at least, was stated by the Belarusian delegation in Geneva at the second session of the Preparatory Committee for the NPT Review Conference.

The Belarusian side emphasized that it is very important for it that the tripartite security guarantees provided in accordance with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in connection with Belarus' voluntary renunciation of the right to possess nuclear weapons work. "Three states - Great Britain, Russia and the USA - have undertaken to respect the independence and sovereignty of Belarus, including not to use measures of economic coercion," the Belarusian delegates stressed. And if there are sanctions, then western partners encroach on the independence of Belarus.

“A reasonable question arises why, despite the fixed and repeatedly confirmed commitments, some nuclear powers in practice ignore them, continuing to apply economic and political pressure. registered with the UN in November 2012 as international treaty. Violation of accepted legal obligations is an unacceptable norm of behavior of states from the point of view of international law", the Belarusian side emphasized.

The irritation of the official Minsk is understandable. The US and the EU apply to Belarus a whole range of political and economic sanctions. The EU black list currently includes 243 individuals and 32 companies supporting the "Lukashenko regime". The number of those on the "black list" of the United States is unknown, but it is possible that it is even higher. It's about about budget-forming companies - such as Belspetsexport, Belneftekhim, Belaruskali. They sell their products mainly in foreign countries. This means that sanctions are a direct blow to the country's budget.

Along the way, Belarus reached a new - almost Soviet - level of military integration with Russia. In May, the allies will hold large-scale exercises "West-2013", where they will work out a possible nuclear strike on Warsaw. The exercises will take place in close proximity to the Polish borders. In addition, Russia announced for the first time that it plans to permanently deploy its air regiment with fighter jets in Belarus by 2015. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the start of work on this project is scheduled for this year: Moscow will place an aviation commandant's office with its neighbors and put the first duty unit of combat fighters on duty. "We intend to continue to consider issues necessary to strengthen the defense capability of our Belarusian colleagues and brothers," Shoigu stressed.

Director of the Minsk Center for Problems European integration Yury Shevtsov believes that for the Belarusian foreign policy a momentous event took place. "To relocate an entire air regiment to Belarus in less than two years is very fast. And this reflects a high degree of military anxiety about NATO or individual NATO countries. Polish games of greatness have always ended badly for Poland," the expert explains. And he adds: “It is unlikely that the opposition to Polish activity regarding Belarus will be limited to one Russian air regiment. At a minimum, the saturation of the Belarusian army with new weapons and equipment will go faster now. will increase exponentially."

Of course, such activity on the part of the official Minsk will inevitably affect the eastern borders of the EU. Poland and Lithuania will begin to rapidly increase military spending. And if for Poland they are unlikely to become too strong an economic burden, then for Lithuania, geopolitical changes will definitely mean additional problems in terms of getting the country out of the economic crisis. Shevtsov also believes that Russia will increase pressure on Lithuania - both economic and informational. "The EU does not compensate Lithuania for these losses. There will still be no war between Russia and NATO, but, here, the losses from the current Polish activity in the east for Lithuania can be quite serious," the political scientist sums up.

Experts consider it quite likely that the threats of the Belarusians will not be empty air shaking, and that the country will respond to the sanctions by withdrawing from the Budapest Memorandum. "The United States has actually already withdrawn from it. Recently, it seems, there was a statement by the US embassy in Belarus that the United States does not consider this Memorandum as a binding document for them," Shevtsov comments.

All this means that Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are about to receive legal basis return to your nuclear status. And in the end, someone, and Belarus, will definitely be able to count on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory. Moreover, the Belarusian government already possesses approximately 2.5 tons nuclear materials, some of which have a high degree of enrichment, sufficient, for example, for the rapid manufacture of a "dirty" atomic "bomb".

In addition, “a number of threshold countries will receive an additional impetus to the creation of nuclear weapons, since will see the unreliability of US security guarantees. Most likely, Iran will officially try to become the first of these countries,” Shevtsov describes the more distant consequences of these changes.

All this, no doubt, plays into the hands of Lukashenka. Stanislav Shushkevich, the author of the Belarusian nuclear disarmament program, says that "Lukashenko will soon begin to blackmail the United States more actively with a return to nuclear status." He will do this in order to achieve the removal of economic sanctions from Belarus. And Old Man can return to him every time he doesn’t like something in the behavior of NATO member countries. Whether Lukashenka will receive nuclear weapons, which he has been dreaming of for a long time, will depend only on Russia in the next few years.

The United States, obviously, will have to somehow respond to this. An attempt to pacify the intractable Lukashenka may turn into new conflicts for NATO member countries. What is especially unsafe against the backdrop of growing military power China and angry rhetoric against the West from Russia.

Maxim Shveits

In the symbolic club of nuclear powers, modern Belarus existed for almost five years: from the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991 until November 27, 1996, when the last echelon with missiles filled with nuclear charges left the territory of the republic.

Since then, a number of politicians have more than once heard words about allegedly lost power for nothing, because a nuclear club is a convincing argument for countering the intrigues of external potential enemies that encroach on the sovereignty of a state. Then suddenly the ambassador Alexander Surikov on the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus "with a certain level of mutual trust and integration." That Alexander Lukashenko "the worst mistake" withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus, accusing "our nationalists and Shushkevich" for screwing up "the greatest asset and expensive commodity".

Occasionally, some anonymous sources from the Belarusian and Russian military departments declare their readiness to return nuclear missiles into the blue-eyed, provided that there will be "management decision made". It is noteworthy that Allied military experts note: “Belarusians have the entire military infrastructure of the Warsaw Pact era in perfect condition, up to launchers missiles with nuclear warheads that were taken to Russia after the collapse of the USSR".

As for the sites for launchers, their condition website already analyzed - in the publication. It is clear that it is unsafe, to put it mildly, to approach such facilities - still operating or mothballed - to put it mildly. However, some idea of state of the art, for example, bases capable of storing nuclear weapons can also be obtained from open sources. It should be emphasized that in a hypothetical return to Belarus "greatest asset" it is these bases that are of paramount strategic importance. Everything begins with them.

Our part of nuclear history

Data about total nuclear charges in the USSR were never published in the open press. By different estimates, in the Soviet Union there were from 20 to 45 thousand units. Some researchers point out that as of 1989, there were about 1,180 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads on the territory of the BSSR. Bases for their storage began to be built in the early 1950s. And they built, it must be said, for centuries: they did not spare high-quality cement, the storage facilities were buried in the ground to a depth of 10 meters.

Among the very first and largest military depots - nuclear bases designed for storage and preparation for use atomic bombs, a base was built at the long-range aviation airfield, located in Machulishchi, which is two dozen kilometers from Minsk. In the language of the military, it was called military unit No. 75367 and had the code name "repair and technical base."

Another base missile weapons strategic purpose (RVSN) was located near Gomel. Almost nothing is known about her, only the number - military unit 42654 - and the code name "Belar Arsenal".

The most famous object of this series was and remains the artillery arsenal, which began to be built in 1952 near the Kolosovo station of the Stolbtsy district of the Minsk region. Before the collapse of the USSR, the storage served military unit 25819, and it itself was called the 25th Arsenal of the Strategic Missile Forces. Officially, the unit was disbanded and withdrawn to Russia in 1996. However, later the unit was reanimated, and now it is listed as the 25th arsenal of rocket and artillery weapons in the Armed Forces of Belarus. It was here that the dismantling of nuclear warheads took place in the 1990s under the close supervision of NATO inspectors.

Noisy "Kamysh" and the commander disappeared

After the last nuclear warhead was removed from the arsenal to Russia, confusion and vacillation began in the unit. It was easy to get to the once-secret object, bypassing the checkpoint, simply by stepping over a fallen fence. By the way, the arsenal was essentially three objects: on the same territory in woodland there was a military camp and the actual administrative part of the unit with technical facilities. The ammunition storage base called "Kamysh" was located a few kilometers from the headquarters - also in the forest. In 1996, there was practically no security there anymore.

Pillars with shields with the inscription “No entry. We shoot without warning" were turned out. The premises of the checkpoint were plundered, the remains of the alarm were lying on the ground. The only thing that remained untouched was the territory itself, where there were warehouses with conventional ammunition. True, there were no people who wanted to go there. The seven-kilometer perimeter territory was fenced with two rows of barbed wire, which was under high voltage. Next to the locked gate stood a five-meter metal tower with loopholes. The sight is terrible...

The command of the arsenal and the officers who remained in the ranks and unnecessary to anyone were more concerned with the problem of their own survival than with service. The local authorities threatened to de-energize and deprive the military of heat for non-payment of accumulated debts. The situation was terrible, and each of the servicemen was spinning as best they could.

The commander of the arsenal, a colonel, simply solved the problem of his own survival. One day he just disappeared. As it turned out, he deserted, but not empty-handed. Along with him, a suitcase with very expensive "trophies" disappeared: the colonel stole 600 magnets with a high content of platinum on total amount about 100 thousand dollars. During the dismantling of missiles, non-ferrous and precious metals were collected in the unit.

How and at what cost the 25th arsenal was restored and, as they say, put into operation, we will not guess.

According to website, about ten years ago, this military facility was equipped with the latest integrated security system, which consists of several subsystems. The technical territory of the arsenal is a wire fence with a voltage between the lines of 3,000 volts. Even if you overcome this milestone, then inside you can run into electric shock traps with a voltage of under 6 thousand volts with three levels of operation: signal, warning and striking. A special video surveillance system also helps to protect the territory at any time of the day. Plus, the human factor in uniform and with a gun.

By all indications, the 25th arsenal is capable of protecting and maintaining not only weapons of the usual, let's say, explosive type. As the military say: "We carry out orders, but do not discuss!".

They recently received another such order. After their commander-in-chief on February 13, the Agreement between Belarus and Russia on the joint protection of the external border of the Union State in the airspace and the creation of a unified regional air defense system. What is not a reason to gossip about the once lost nuclear power and possible ways to acquire it?

Veterans-rocketmen told ZARYA.BY correspondent about the events of those years, their service in the Strategic Missile Forces.

Vladimir KORSAKOV, retired colonel, in the 90s chief engineer - deputy commander for weapons of the 31st missile division:

4 missile divisions were stationed in Soviet Belarus. Until the end of the 80s, they were armed with R-12, R-14 and RSD-10 missiles. It was the power of tremendous destructive power. For example, the RSD-10 rocket of the Pioneer mobile ground-based missile system carried a multiple reentry vehicle with three warheads with a capacity of 150 kt each with individual guidance to its own targets.

One launcher solved the tasks of the combined arms division of the Second World War. And there were eight of them in the missile regiment alone. The NATO leadership had to take into account the power, accuracy, and range of Soviet missile systems, and as a result, the West entered into negotiations with Soviet Union on the termination of the production of mobile SRKs and their complete elimination, which in itself was an indirect recognition of the military superiority of the USSR.

When, on December 8, 1987, the Treaty between the USSR and the USA on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles was signed in Washington. According to this document, missiles of these classes, which were stationed on the territory of Belarus, were to be destroyed. Very strict schedules were drawn up for their elimination. At the Lesnaya missile base from 1988 to 1991. 155 R-12 and R-14 missiles, 72 launchers, 60 warheads and 246 units were eliminated auxiliary equipment. Instead of medium-range and shorter-range missiles, the 32nd, 33rd and 49th missile divisions began to receive a new mobile ground complex "Topol", which was not equal in any of the most developed countries peace. It was armed with a three-stage solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of hitting enemy targets up to US territory, and created real threat NATO troops in Western Europe as well as overseas.

The rocket of the complex can be launched from any point of the route combat patrol. The preparation time for the launch is about two minutes. Already by 1991, the missile divisions near the cities of Lida, Mozyr and Postavy had the 81st such launcher. It seemed that world military parity had been achieved. But, as it turned out later, the most advanced Soviet weapons, new developments were frozen. The unrestrained multi-stage demilitarization of the USSR destroyed not only the arms race and iron curtain", but ruined the military-industrial complex, which was one of the foundations of the Soviet economy.

As a result of the collapse of the USSR, the number of nuclear powers increased, since at the time of the signing of the Belovezhskaya Accords, Soviet nuclear weapons were deployed on the territory of four union republics: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Through diplomatic efforts, Russia and the United States ensured that Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan renounced the status of nuclear powers, and transferred to Russia all the military nuclear potential that ended up on their territory. On August 13, 1993, the withdrawal of Topol strategic missile systems from Belarus to Russia began.

Valentin POPOV, retired colonel, commander of repair and technical bases in the 90s:

I had to command the repair and technical bases, which were special units for the operation of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons. It was a very dangerous and responsible work, which was performed only by highly qualified specialists. Our task was to receive, transport, unload, transfer to the highest degree of combat readiness, carry out regulations, store, and perform combat missions on combat duty using missile warheads. The content of the warhead ammunition required special measures to comply with the temperature and humidity conditions in the structures where they were located.

It was a whole range of activities. Each operation during the operation of the ammunition was performed by at least three people. The mistake of any soldier could lead to serious, and even catastrophic consequences. After all, only one thermonuclear charge carried the power of hundreds of atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki!

Before working with knots and the product itself, all performers wore special clothing and slippers with leather soles stitched with copper wire. It was necessary to remove static electricity to the ground loop, the resistance of which was systematically monitored. It was forbidden to work not in cotton clothes, without head caps, to carry combs, rings, watches and other items that could be electrified or pierce charge units and products.

Special security measures were taken during the elimination of launchers. They worked in winter, summer and in the heat, and in snow and rain, at night and during the day in any conditions, in rubberized protective equipment, in rubber boots and gloves, in gas masks. The missiles were delivered to the nearest regiment's location railway station, fuel components were drained from them, loaded with 8T26 cranes on the MoAZ-546 chassis into wagons that looked like postal cars, and taken to the Lesnaya missile base near Baranovichi, where the liquidation of the R-12 and R-14 was organized. RSD-10s were taken to the Kapustin Yar training ground, where they were destroyed by blowing up or launching.

The warheads were taken out to the place of loading with observance of even greater security measures in specially equipped heat-insulating rooms, providing temperature regime and the specified humidity in the bodies of Ural cars. The drivers of these vehicles were special training. Warheads were loaded into isolated wagons and sent partly for processing to specialized factories, partly to a central storage base.

Yuri KUZNETSOV, reserve major, in the 90s senior assistant to the head of the personnel department of the 32nd missile division:

Reduction, elimination of missiles, withdrawal missile troops from Belarus, this is a tragic event for many veterans. Imagine what it was like for rocket officers, who spent hundreds of hours day and night on combat duty, to drain fuel, cut off the nozzles of the rocket engine and cut the tanks of their rockets.

And what was it like in the prime of life to get laid off, to be out of work, to lose your favorite business, to break away from your acquired places or literally start life from scratch. But we coped with these difficulties, preserving the memory of combat way missile divisions groupings of the Strategic Missile Forces in Belarus.