Pakistan nuclear weapons. How Pakistan became a nuclear power. Nuclear arms race
While the world is focused on North Korea's ballistic missile tests, another potential conflict is raising concerns. In July, 11 people were killed and 18 were wounded in shootouts between Indian and Pakistani troops in Jammu and Kashmir, and 4,000 people were forced to flee their homes.
On Sunday former minister Information and Broadcasting Venkaiah Naidu, nominated by the National Democratic Alliance of India for the post of vice-president of the country, said that Pakistan must remember how the conflict ended in 1971, when Pakistan was defeated during the third Indo-Pakistani war and Bangladesh gained independence.
Former Indian Defense Minister and opposition leader Mulayam Singh Yadav said last week that China is using Pakistan to attack the country and the Chinese are preparing nuclear warheads in Pakistan to attack India.
Warheads and doctrines
India tested its first atomic bomb back in 1974. Today, the number of nuclear warheads in India is estimated at 100-120.
Pakistan, according to various assumptions, had the first bomb in its arsenal either in 1977 (according to Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2007) or in 1983. The first tests in Pakistan took place in 1998.
This spring, The New York Times reported that India was considering changes to the interpretation of its nuclear doctrine, which prohibits the first use of nuclear weapons. Previously, India only prescribed a massive retaliatory strike, which involved attacks on enemy cities.
A new approach could involve preemptive, limited nuclear strikes against Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in self-defense. Assumptions about changes in India's nuclear policy are made based on an analysis of statements by Indian high-ranking officials and are rather speculative.
But even assumptions about the possibility of a preventive nuclear strike, firstly, could push Pakistan to increase its nuclear capabilities and set off a chain reaction of a nuclear arms race between the two countries, and secondly, could force Pakistan to accept any escalation of the conflict as a reason for India to strike first. This lowers the critical threshold for deciding on nuclear war.
Just a few days after these assumptions were voiced, Pakistan accused India of accelerating its military nuclear program and preparing to produce 2,600 nuclear warheads. In a June report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted that India had added about 10 warheads to its arsenal over the year and was gradually expanding the infrastructure to develop its nuclear weapons.
Former Pakistani Brigadier General Feroz Khan, who after his retirement began writing books and articles on Pakistan's nuclear program and speaking at conferences, had previously said that Pakistan had up to 120 nuclear warheads.
Last week in Washington, the Pakistani expert also said that Islamabad's plans to use nuclear weapons are based on Cold War-era NATO doctrine, which envisioned the use of tactical nuclear strikes against advancing enemy forces. To this, however, critics of Pakistan objected that Islamabad was using its nuclear status as a cover for waging a terrorist war in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.
For India, the presence of Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons has become a problem. If Pakistan uses only tactical nuclear weapon and only on the battlefield, then India will look in a black light if it hits Pakistani cities in response. Hence the talk about changing interpretations of the doctrine, when it is necessary to have time to eliminate the Pakistani arsenals before they are put into operation.
Another reason is Trump’s rise to power in the United States. India believes that under Trump there will be no serious pressure on Indian decisions on the nuclear program from the United States and the world community, as happened after the tests in 1998, when the United States imposed sanctions against India and Pakistan economic sanctions. There has also been a deterioration in relations between the US and Pakistan under Trump. Pakistan is no longer considered by the Americans as a reliable ally in the fight against radicals in Afghanistan, which benefits India.
The scenario everyone is afraid of
There are essentially two possible scenarios.
In the first scenario, the escalation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir is misjudged by Pakistan, which will consider that India is moving to large-scale military action and is about to launch a preventive nuclear attack. Therefore, Pakistan will rush to attack with nuclear weapons itself.
In the second scenario, likely major terrorist attacks in India, like the 2008 Mumbai attack, would be perceived as an act of aggression by Pakistan. Indian Army raids or Indian Air Force air strikes against militants in Pakistan will be perceived as the beginning of an invasion and Islamabad will strike with nuclear weapons. Understanding this logic of the development of events, after a terrorist attack, India can immediately decide on a preventive nuclear strike, skipping the stage of retaliation using conventional methods.
Both scenarios are unlikely, but, as many situation analysts write, the main problem The point is that no one knows what the criteria are for the use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan and what exactly it might perceive as the start of a war on the part of India. The second problem is that terrorist attacks in India may not be related to Pakistan at all, but it will be difficult to convince the Indian side of this.
In 2008 it was published American study about the consequences nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The authors concluded that although the total charges of the two countries are not so great, their use will lead to a climate catastrophe, which will cause major agricultural problems and mass starvation. As a result, according to the report, about one billion people will die within ten years.
Ilya Plekhanov
Can Islamists Gain Access to Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons? Islamabad could become the third largest country in the world in terms of volume after Russia and the United States. This conclusion was made by American analysts in a report prepared for the Carnegie Endowment. According to experts, such a prospect is realistic if Pakistan maintains its current production rate of up to 20 nuclear warheads per year.
Currently, Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal, according to the Stockholm international institute World Problems Institute (SIPRI), is sixth in the world after the Russian Federation, USA, France, China and Great Britain.
According to the Financial Times, a senior Pakistani government official called for caution in the study's estimates.
These projections into the future are greatly exaggerated. Pakistan is a responsible nuclear power, not an adventurer state, he told the publication.
Pakistan joined the club of nuclear powers in 1998. This happened a few weeks after India, its main regional rival, tested its nuclear weapons. Both countries refused to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Let us remind you that, according to this Agreement, to have the means mass destruction Only five countries are allowed: Russia, USA, China, France and Great Britain.
How could Pakistan's nuclear push affect global security? Today, the answer to this question worries many.
In May 2015, the media reported that Saudi Arabia had decided to purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan. The reason is deals on Iran's nuclear program. It was then noted that over the past 30 years, Saudi Arabia has financed the Pakistani nuclear program, and now Islamabad will allegedly have to repay this debt - in the form of a finished product.
Note that in 2003, the CIA published data that Pakistan “pulled off” a similar deal with North Korea, exchanging their nuclear technology for North Korean missile technology. This was confirmed by a photograph from an American satellite, which was able to record the process of loading missiles onto a Pakistani Air Force plane near Pyongyang. At the time, Islamabad said it was a “regular purchase” and not an “exchange.”
Pakistan is pursuing a systematic policy to increase its nuclear potential. And this is one of the reasons why he is blocking consideration of the draft fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva,” notes former boss Directorate of the apparatus of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, ex-chief of the Main Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel General Viktor Esin. - Pakistan believes that they have not accumulated a sufficient number of nuclear weapons to ensure their national security.
Indeed, there are estimates that Pakistan produces between 15 and 20 nuclear weapons annually, while its main rival, India, is limited to 5-10. But I don’t believe that this country will become third in terms of the volume of nuclear weapons, since many centers incorrectly estimate nuclear potential China. SIPRI and others count about 300 ammunition in the PRC, but this figure does not correspond to reality - in fact, China has 700-900 of them. In addition, China, in response to the United States deploying a missile defense system, has moved to equipping its ballistic missiles with multiple warheads. Accordingly, the number of nuclear weapons will increase significantly.
According to my estimates, Pakistan can in the future reach the level of Great Britain, which officially has 165 deployed warheads, and with those in reserve - 180. Thus, by 2020, Pakistan can really reach the level of 180 ammunition.
“SP”: - American analysts agree with SIPRI and now place Pakistan in sixth place in terms of nuclear weapons in the world. But in 2008, SIPRI reported that Israel had twice as many nuclear weapons as India and Pakistan.
This was a wrong assessment. Nuclear reactor for the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Dimona is the only place for the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Israel. Considering that they usually always keep a certain amount nuclear materials Israel most likely has 80-90 nuclear weapons in stock. He, of course, could modernize the reactor and build more, but I don’t think he needs it.
“SP”: - Pakistan has been accused more than once of trading in nuclear technologies...
Yes, this was revealed in the early 2000s. The head of the country's nuclear program, nicknamed the “father of the Islamic nuclear bomb,” Abdul-Qadir Khan himself later admitted that he traded in nuclear technologies and devices - centrifuges, and transferred them to Iran, Libya and North Korea. After this became known, the Americans intervened and placed the capabilities of the country's nuclear industry under strict control. It is clear that the “black market” has existed for a long time and for a lot of money you can buy anything. But in relation to this area, we can only talk about the sale of technology, but not about the supply, as they say, of the nuclear materials themselves, much less ammunition.
“SP”: - It’s no secret that there are many different extremist groups in Pakistan. At one time there were even publications that they could come to power through legal means...
The military leadership in Pakistan has a strong position and guards strategic facilities. In addition, the United States largely controls Pakistan's nuclear policy. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that radical politicians may come to power in the country, but even if this happens, it is not at all a fact that they will decide to trade or even use nuclear warheads. After all, Pakistan’s existence depends not only on relations with the United States, but also with China, which helps it contain India.
Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin admits that in 10 years Pakistan will be able to surpass Great Britain and France in terms of nuclear weapons.
The British and French are not trying too hard to build up anything. But Pakistan has no chance of overtaking China. All standard estimates of the PRC's nuclear arsenal of 200-300 charges are an absurdity that is even difficult to explain. In addition, India's industrial potential is higher than that of Pakistan, and, of course, Delhi will not allow their main enemy to get ahead like that. This is completely out of the question.
In terms of carriers, it is believed that Pakistan has quite a lot of operational-tactical missiles (OTR Abdali, Ghaznavi, Shaheen-1 and Shaheen-1-1A) and intermediate-range ballistic missiles Shaheen-2. . And nuclear charges seem to be adapted to them.
Now regarding the use of Pakistan's nuclear potential by extremists. Even if the Islamists take over nuclear charge, then they are unlikely to be able to use it. Another thing is that if they come to power in the country, that is, they get the arsenal at their legal disposal, which cannot be ruled out - there is a possibility of this.
Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies and Central Asia Semyon Bagdasarov believes that Pakistan does not have the financial capacity to significantly change its position in the ranking of members of the nuclear club.
In my opinion, this report was made specifically against the backdrop of a possible worsening of relations between Pakistan and India in order to put pressure on Islamabad from the point of view of American interests.
Pakistan is doing well with carriers capable of delivering a nuclear warhead - according to some estimates, the Shaheen-1A missile is capable of hitting a target not only in India and China, but even in Western Europe. But as for the possible nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of extremists, the likelihood of this exists, but not very high yet. Yes, there has been no stability in the country for several decades, but still there are quite strong intelligence services and forces that are so far coping well with the terrorist threat.
Yes, in the north-west of the country - in the so-called tribal zone. The fact is that, historically, the Pakistani authorities have little control over this region. But this is a fairly local area, and its importance should not be greatly exaggerated.
Leading Researcher sector of regional security problems of RISI, candidate of military sciences Vladimir Karyakin draws attention to the paradoxical situation in which countries find themselves that have nuclear weapons, but have not acceded to the NPT.
As soon as India and Pakistan - these irreconcilable countries - acquired nuclear weapons, their policy became more cautious and balanced. The parties began to use even conventional weapons less frequently in their own.
Of course, there is always a risk that radical politicians may come to power in eastern countries. But the mechanism for using nuclear weapons is quite complex. As a rule, in order to give a command to launch a missile with a nuclear warhead, three signals must be given simultaneously from different points. That is, the decision to attack is made by consensus.
With regard to nuclear terrorism, even if extremists were able to infiltrate a nuclear program facility, they would only be able to obtain individual elements weapons. Because with the exception of ICBMs and SLBMs, nuclear warheads are not installed directly on the carrier, but are located in special storage facilities. Assembly requires a special team, for example, from a repair and technical center, whose people know, roughly speaking, how to connect connectors, the procedure for testing the entire unit, etc. In a tactical nuclear charge - an aircraft bomb - there are also a bunch of different fuses and sensors.
So, the threat of terrorists using nuclear weapons is in reality extremely low. Another thing is radiological terrorism, the use of the so-called “dirty bomb”, which involves radiation contamination of objects and territories. Here the risk is significantly higher.
I have been asking myself for a long time about Pakistan's nuclear weapons. How did it get there? Have you ever thought? Did anyone counteract this (as the US is now countering Iran) and why little is heard about this, although Bin Laden did entrench himself in Pakistan at one time. I have always been interested in the question, why is India allowed, China is allowed, Pakistan is allowed, but Iran, for example, is not allowed? And then there’s the news today:
By developing tactical nuclear weapons, Pakistan has practically entered the closed club of countries possessing such weapons, which now includes the United States, Russia, France and China. At the same time, Pakistan, like France, gives tactical nuclear weapons the functions that nuclear weapons perform in Russia and the United States strategic purpose, American experts note. We are talking about the Nasr mobile short-range missile, the first tests of which took place in Pakistan in April 2011.
According to Pakistani open sources, it is designed to destroy objects with great precision at a distance of 60 kv from the launch site. Nasr refers to dual-use missiles capable of delivering both nuclear warheads and conventional warheads. In Pakistan, it is being created as a “quick reaction weapon” for nuclear deterrence sudden threats from a potential enemy."
According to available official data, the following countries currently possess nuclear weapons: (according to the year of the first nuclear test) USA (since 1945), Russia (initially Soviet Union, 1949), Great Britain (1952), France (1960), China (1964), India (1974), Pakistan (1998) and DPRK (2012). Israel is also considered to have nuclear weapons.
How did you end up in this company? Muslim country Pakistan working closely with terrorists? Let's try to find answers to these questions and study the course of history in more detail... -
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The presence of nuclear forces in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a fundamental moment in the development of world history. This is a completely logical and natural step for a country that, despite its rather low standard of living population brings to the fore the priorities of protecting their national sovereignty. The reasons for this programmed phenomenon lie in the very history of the emergence of Pakistan, its current situation on political map peace. The fact is that the presence in British India, which organically included modern territories Pakistan, India and Ceylon, the largest religious communities - Hindu and Muslim - should sooner or later lead to this political situation, when each of them would require complete independence both in public administration and, even more so, in representation at international arena. After the 1857 uprising against the British, who defeated the rebels, the most authoritative leader of the Muslim population of the then unified country was Sayyid Ahmad Shah, who preached Western values and advocated close political and economic ties with England.
The importance of British India for England was so great both strategically and even more so in economically that the Viceroy of India, Lord Curzon, said: “If we lose India, the sun of the British Empire will set.” And in order to prevent all the consequences of such a division in the future, even then a policy of confrontation between religious communities began to be laid down - their internecine war will always distract attention from foreign policy interests of industrial developed countries. That is why, already in 1883, Ahmad Shah managed to implement the rule of separate voting for Muslims and Hindus, and in 1885 a university was founded where only Muslims were admitted. Moreover, it was at his instigation that in 1887 Muslims began to leave the Indian National Congress, which was formed in 1885. After the death of Ahamd Shah in Dhaka in 1906, the All-India Muslim League was formed, which declared its goal to create an exclusively independent Islamic state in India called Pakistan, which translates as “the land of the pure.” However, Mahatma Gandhi appeared on the political scene of British India, who, thanks to his religious tolerance, managed to become the recognized leader of virtually all political forces in the country. But at the same time, personalities such as Muhammad Ali Jinnah and the poet-philosopher Muhammad Iqbal, who wrote incendiary sermons to fellow believers, managed to almost completely persuade Muslims to create the state of Pakistan.
At the end of December 1930, at the congress of the Muslim League, M. Iqbal spoke in favor of a categorical separation from British India into a completely independent Islamic state. And in March 1940, the Muslim League, led by Jinnah, proclaimed its main goal - the creation of Pakistan. Interesting fact: The name Pakistan was suggested by Chaudhuri Rahmat Ali, who lived in England and studied at Cambridge. As we see, the origins of the creation of the new state were educated and literate people who managed to lead millions of backward and unenlightened people. There is a lot to learn from British diplomacy, its politicians and education system. In order to constitutionally legitimize the independence of Muslims in the territorial regions of India, a declaration was adopted in Lahore in 1940, which spoke of “areas in which Muslims constitute a numerical majority. They should unite to constitute independent states in which the territorial units should have autonomy and sovereignty." Then the chronology of events went as follows. On August 15, 1947, at midnight, the independence of India was proclaimed, but already on August 14, the state of Pakistan appeared on the political map of the world. And immediately religious pogroms began, leading to the displacement of millions of refugees. The death toll, according to some sources, exceeded 300 thousand people. And in October 1947, hostilities began between two state formations over the territory of Kashmir, three-quarters of which are Muslim, but power belongs to the leaders of the Hindu community.
Until January 1, 1949, there were bloody battles; the territorial and, especially, religious problems were never resolved. Moreover, even today it does not seem appropriate to talk about a peaceful solution to all disputes between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the United States of India. Now it is difficult to even imagine all the consequences that may arise between the two countries in the future. The armed confrontation between the two countries will continue for quite a long time, reminiscent of the situation of the absence of any peace treaty between Israel and Palestine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the one hand, and Georgia, on the other. That is why “nuclear potential has become the main force of deterrence and helped establish peace in the region,” said Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz. He further states that “in 2002, when India deployed a million-strong army on our borders, ... it was only the fact that Pakistan had nuclear weapons that forced the Indians to abandon plans for an invasion.”
Looking ahead, we note that a completely predictable conflict between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the United States of India could lead to the use of nuclear weapons by the parties. The war for Kashmir in the future is real, as is the sabotage activity on both sides, which has taken place, is taking place and will take place without time limits. The confrontation is so great that everyone's decision controversial issues peaceful means is very problematic, and that is why such a tough factor as nuclear weapons appears on the scene. As numerous experts have noted, it is almost impossible to estimate the number and types of nuclear weapons in Pakistan's arsenal. Everything is surrounded by secrecy and suspicion.
General history of creation atomic weapons Pakistan is a very fascinating description of its action. According to some experts, Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, after the defeat by India in the war for the eastern provinces, on January 24, 1972, gathered leading nuclear physicists. According to American journalist Tim Weiner, Pakistan managed to create a smuggling network that allowed it to steal and buy technology for the production of atomic weapons. However, in reality things were somewhat different. First of all, we should note the participation of mainland China. It was so large that the participation of Saudi Arabia and Libya in this program was purely financial, especially in 1973 and 1974. True, some American journalists It is believed that the United States is also involved in Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons. At least this weapon was created with their tacit consent. Skipping numerous details of the history of the formation of Pakistan's nuclear program, we note that countries such as Holland, Belgium, Germany, France and Switzerland played a role in the supply of equipment for the enrichment of nuclear ore and the creation of individual components. After Bhutto was overthrown as a result of a coup d'etat and then executed, the creation of nuclear weapons proceeded exclusively under the control of the ISI military intelligence.
Pakistan tested its first nuclear bomb in 1998, literally two weeks after India conducted similar tests. Thus, when the Islamic Republic of Pakistan declared itself as a country with a nuclear force, global community was confronted with a fact. This was only possible by the USA, USSR, mainland China and the United States of India, whose atomic component in their weapons is a completely independent structural unit. It is now known that it was Abdul Qadeer Khan who managed to create an atomic bomb for his country at his research laboratory in Kahuta in northern Pakistan. This center operated more than 1,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment. Pakistan has produced enough fissile material for 30–52 nuclear warheads. About two months ago, an investigation was launched in Pakistan against Abdul Qadir Khan, the country's top nuclear scientist. During the investigation, Khan admitted that he transferred nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya. The CIA and the IAEA established that he created an entire trafficking network nuclear secrets. In early February 2006, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf granted Khan's request for clemency. At the same time, Musharraf said that he would not allow independent investigation Khan's activities and will not open the country's nuclear facilities to international inspectors. Nuclear explosive devices are believed to be based on a so-called implosion design, which allows the use of a solid core of highly enriched uranium at a cost of approximately 15–20 kilograms per warhead. Let us recall that the solution to the problem of converging spherical shock and detonation waves served as the theoretical basis the principle of "implosion". It is implosion that makes it possible not only to form a critical mass much faster, but also to make do with a smaller mass of nuclear explosives. Experts explain the participation of mainland China in the creation of nuclear weapons in Pakistan by the following fact.
Seismic measurements of tests conducted on 28 and 30 May 1998 by Islamabad suggest that the results were at levels of 9–12 and 4–6 kilotons, respectively. Since similar designs were used during Chinese tests in the 1960s, it is concluded that Beijing assisted Pakistan in the 1970s and 1980s. However main principle the presence of Chinese nuclear specialists in the nuclear centers of Pakistan is that armed clashes between mainland China and the United States of India took on such a local character, the expansion of which could be very costly for both countries. Since the conduct of military operations by Beijing simultaneously against island China and Delhi is a more than dangerous option (in this case, the US Navy will be involved), China’s strategic plan is quite natural, according to which it is planned to create and use Pakistan’s nuclear forces to divert the armed forces India from the border with mainland China and their relocation to the west, to the borders of Pakistan. Moreover, it is Islamabad’s presence of effective nuclear forces that will serve as the basis for strategic security for mainland China. Analyzing the qualitative component of Pakistan's atomic weapons, experts note that there is no accurate data on what type of uranium is used and in what quantity. For two decades, Pakistan has used the gas centrifuge method of uranium enrichment to produce fission material for its own nuclear weapons. Independent nuclear weapons experts estimate that Islamabad has between 24 and 48 nuclear warheads.
Islamabad, comparing itself with countries that have nuclear weapons, believes that it lags significantly behind them in the field of modernization. Therefore, he is dissatisfied with his first generation weapons and continues to develop other projects in the field of uranium enrichment.
It is believed that the Khushab reactor in Joharabad, in the Punjab region, can produce weapons-grade plutonium. The presence of lithium-6 allows “Pakistani” scientists to obtain tritium. The fact is that next to the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi there is a processing plant where tritium can be produced. Let us remind you: tritium is used in the thermonuclear reaction of boosting (strengthening) the primary assembly of a nuclear warhead.
A thermonuclear charge is a multi-stage explosive device, the power of the explosion is achieved due to sequential processes: the explosion of a plutonium charge, and then due to the created reaction temperature - the synthesis of tritium nuclei with the release of even more energy, which can be used to “ignite” the charge of the third stage. more power, etc. The power of an explosive device designed in this way can be arbitrarily large. The traditional method of producing tritium is its production in reactors by irradiating targets from the lithium-6 isotope with neutrons. During warhead storage, tritium losses due to natural decay are approximately 5.5% per year. As tritium decays, it turns into helium. Therefore, tritium undergoes periodic purification from helium.
All these efforts allow Pakistan not only to increase the power of its nuclear forces, but also to begin developing thermonuclear weapons. The acceleration of this process can be attributed to the fact that Pakistan's nuclear committee decided on an adequate response from India to its decision to create a comprehensive nuclear triad: air - land - sea. It was the strengthening of nuclear power that allowed Islamabad to begin its nuclear exports. Thus, in particular, Pakistan is ready to provide military assistance to Nigeria and turn this country into a nuclear power. According to the Nigerian Ministry of Defense, the proposal was made by General Muhammad Aziz Khan, head of the Pakistani Joint Committee of Staff, at a meeting with the Nigerian Minister of Defense in 2004. Khan said that the Pakistani military is developing an entire cooperation program that includes assistance to Nigeria in the nuclear field. It is not specified which weapons, materials or technologies can be transferred within the framework of this program.
At the end of January this year, a representative of the Nigerian government announced the preparation of a preliminary agreement with North Korea, under the terms of which Nigeria would receive North Korean missile technology. This report was subsequently denied in Pyongyang, and the spokesman for the Nigerian president said that no agreements had been signed yet. He added that Nigeria is not trying to obtain weapons of mass destruction, and plans to use missiles exclusively for “peacekeeping” purposes and to protect its own territory. To summarize, we note that Scientific research Pakistan has advanced in the field of nuclear weapons to the point where it is able to develop thermonuclear weapons. As for Pakistan's nuclear forces, they have real effectiveness and in the event of an armed conflict with India, if a more than unfavorable situation arises in the defense capability of their country, they will be used to the fullest extent.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, simultaneously with the creation of nuclear weapons, planned to use them in various combat conditions and to destroy enemy targets in different distances. Taking into account the solution to these problems, Islamabad also developed various options for means of delivering nuclear warheads - from aircraft to ballistic missiles.
Among the means of delivering nuclear weapons, the F-16 aircraft manufactured in the United States should be considered. Although the Pakistani Air Force will be able to use French Mirage V or Chinese A-5 aircraft in this case. Twenty-eight F-16A (single-seat) and 12 F-16B (two-seat) were delivered between 1983 and 1987. At least eight of them are no longer in service.
In 1985, the US Congress passed the Pressler Amendment, aimed at prohibiting the creation by Pakistan atomic bomb. Under this amendment, Pakistan could not receive economic and military assistance unless the US President could verify that Islamabad did not have nuclear device. This also applied to possible means of delivering nuclear weapons. However, although there was ample evidence indicating that nuclear weapons were being developed in Pakistan, Presidents Reagan and Bush Sr. turned a blind eye to this mainly in order to intensify activities against the USSR in the Afghan conflict. After the war in Afghanistan ended, sanctions were finally imposed on Pakistan. This happened on October 6, 1990. In March 2005, George W. Bush agreed to the sale of F-16s to Pakistan. At the first stage, these deliveries included 24 F-16 aircraft.
It should also be noted that, according to Press trust of India, in March 2005, production of the joint Pakistani-Chinese fighter JF-17 officially began in Pakistan. At the aviation enterprise in the city of Kamra, where the aircraft will be produced, a solemn ceremony was held to mark this event. The country's President Pervez Musharraf took part in it.
With the help of Chinese specialists, the F-16 will be modernized for use as a carrier of nuclear weapons. First of all, they will be equipped with squadrons 9 and 11 at the Sargodha airbase, 160 km northwest of Lahore.
The F-16 has a range of more than 1,600 km and can be increased further if upgraded fuel tanks. Given the weight and payload size limitations of the F-16, the bomb likely weighs approximately 1,000 kg, and it is most likely that the nuclear warhead is suspended in full operational readiness at one or even several Pakistani air bases.
Note that, in principle, the collected nuclear bombs or their components specifically for such aircraft may be stored at an ammunition depot near Sargodha.
Alternatively, nuclear weapons could be stored near the Afghan border. This option is also possible, but for specialists this information is a kind of distraction, because there are clear obligations of the Pakistani authorities to the United States about the non-deployment of nuclear components in the territories adjacent to Afghanistan.
Pakistan's nuclear delivery vehicle is the Ghauri missile, although other missiles in the Pakistani military could be upgraded to carry a nuclear warhead. Ghauri-1 was successfully tested on April 6, 1998, over a distance of 1,100 km, probably with a payload of up to 700 kg. Experts said the missile was launched near the town of Jhelum in northeastern Pakistan, 100 km southeast of Islamabad, and hit its intended target near Quetta in the southwest.
The Ghauri-2 two-stage ballistic missile was tested on April 14, 1999, three days after the Indian Agni-2 missile was tested. The launch was carried out from a mobile launcher at Dina, near Jhelum, and the rocket landed at Jiwani, near the southwest coast, after an eight-minute flight.
A third version of the Ghauri, with an unconfirmed range of 2500–3000 km, is in development, but was already tested on August 15, 2000.
There is information that there is also a Khataf-V Ghauri missile, the test of which was allegedly carried out in early June 2004. It is said to have a flight range of 1.5 thousand km and can deliver any charge weighing up to 800 kg. The location of the trial was not disclosed. It was as if Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf was present. This was the second test of such a missile in a week(1).
The choice of the name "Ghauri" (2) is very symbolic. The Muslim Sultan Mahammad Ghauri defeated the Hindu ruler Praitvi Chauhan in 1192. Moreover, "Praithvi" is the name that India gave to its short-range ballistic missile.
Using its political intrigue with Beijing against India, Islamabad managed to obtain not just M-11 missiles, but also documentation for their production and maintenance. Since 1992, 30 or more M-11 missiles have been delivered to Pakistan from China. Subsequently, Beijing's assistance also manifested itself in the construction of missile maintenance and storage facilities. Therefore, Pakistan can produce its own Tarmuk missile, based on the M-11, which it has done quite successfully.
The war with India is a more than real factor, which is the highest priority of the entire economic and political life of Pakistan. This thought occupied and occupies the heads of the generals of Islamabad, Delhi and Beijing. That is why billions of dollars are spent on the production of already technically developed delivery vehicles and the same amount of money is spent on the creation of new missile systems. In particular, the Chinese M-9 Shaheen-1 (Eagle) missile, redesigned in Pakistan, has a flight range of 700 km and can carry a payload of 1000 kg. Pakistan conducted the initial flight test of the Shaheen from the coastal town of Sonmiani on April 15, 1999.
At the March 23 parade in 2000, Islamabad displayed the Shaheen-2, a two-stage medium-range missile, as well as a missile with a range of 2,500 km capable of carrying a 1,000-kg payload. The missile was transported on a mobile launcher with 16 wheels. It is possible that both missiles could carry nuclear warheads.
In November 2000, Pakistan decided to place its key nuclear institutions under the control of the National Nuclear Weapons Control Committee. The new government, installed in February 2000, set as its goal the creation of an effective nuclear command and control system.
The events of September 11, 2000 served as a reason to strengthen measures against the use of nuclear weapons by terrorists. Pakistan, as a loyal and more than devoted ally of the United States, immediately strengthened the security of storage facilities with nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles.
According to press reports, Pakistan's military moved nuclear weapons components to new secret sites within two days of September 11, 2000. General Pervez Musharraf took several active measures to organize the security of maintaining the country's nuclear arsenal. Thus, in particular, six new secret storage and storage facilities for nuclear weapons components were installed.
In early March 2004, Pakistan tested a medium-range ballistic missile that could easily hit any Indian city.
In a statement, the Pakistani Ministry of Defense said that the tests of the two-stage Shaheen-2 missile were successful. According to Reuters, the creation of Pakistani science and engineering may carry nuclear warhead over a distance of up to 2000 km(3). Pakistan said it considered the missile test sufficient to deter aggression and “prevent military pressure.”
India was warned about the tests in advance. Note that at the beginning of March 2004, India entered into an agreement with Israel on the purchase of airborne radar station"-Falcon"-. The system can detect aircraft from several kilometers away and intercept radio transmissions over large parts of Pakistan, including the disputed state of Kashmir.
In the first ten days of October 2004, tests of Hatf-5 (Ghauri) medium-range ballistic missiles were carried out, during which all the conditional targets of the alleged enemy were successfully hit.
This rocket runs on liquid fuel and, as some agencies note, was developed based on Korean technology (4). This missile is capable of carrying a nuclear charge and covering a distance of up to 1,500 km.
In April 2006, it was reported that Islamabad had conducted new tests ballistic missile medium-range "-Hatf-6" - with an increased range of up to 2500 km. These tests, according to the Pakistani military, were successful. As noted in one of the messages, “the tests were carried out to confirm a number of additional technical parameters, in addition to those that were verified during the last launch, carried out in March 2005” (5).
conclusions
In Pakistan, the means of delivering nuclear weapons, unlike India, are limited air force and missiles, the improvement of which continues with the help of China.
In his technical equipment The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has reached full parity with the United States, India, and is already ahead of its neighbor in some types of delivery.
The expected evolution of the technical development of Pakistan's rocket industry allows us to conclude that intercontinental ballistic missiles will appear in its arsenal in the very near future.
A.M. Tronov, A.K. Lukoyanov«- Pakistan Nuclear Forces" -
The formation of Pakistan's nuclear program took place in the context of a prolonged military confrontation with India and difficult political relations from the USA. The beginning of Pakistan's nuclear program dates back to 1965. In the same year, the Atomic Energy Commission was established by the decision of the President of Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear program from the very beginning had a military orientation and was not aimed at peaceful nuclear energy. Its implementation was accelerated from 1972, shortly after the defeat in the war with India and especially after India carried out its first nuclear explosion in 1974. Pakistan has declared at the state level that it must have its own nuclear weapons. An important incentive for acquiring nuclear weapons, in addition to the “Indian factor,” was Pakistan’s desire to strengthen its position in the Muslim world, becoming the first owner of nuclear weapons there. US pressure (pre-1979) to slow down Pakistan's nuclear program and tighten export controls Western countries prompted Pakistan to conclude a China-Pakistan agreement on cooperation in the field of nuclear technology. During the period of the USSR's military presence in Afghanistan, the United States of America, trying to attract Pakistan to its side, resorted to multi-billion dollar economic and military assistance to it. In 1989, Pakistan announced its possession of nuclear weapons. Thus, we can say with a high degree of confidence that it was the inconsistent US policy that significantly contributed to the implementation of the Pakistani nuclear program.
Pakistan has not acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Comprehensive Ban Treaty nuclear tests.
On May 28, 1998 (two weeks after India conducted nuclear tests), Pakistan announced the successful conduct of five underground nuclear explosions at the Chagai test site in Balochistan (their total energy release is 40-45 kt), and on May 30, 1998, another explosion took place with an energy release of 15-18 kt.
Pakistan's nuclear weapons. There are very rough estimates of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Presumably, the country has nuclear weapons in quantities of up to 30-50 units, although estimates of reserves of fissile materials make it possible to assume the presence of larger quantities. Possible carriers of nuclear weapons in Pakistan could be tactical aircraft and ballistic missiles. Presumably, in peacetime, nuclear warheads are not installed on carriers, but are kept in a reduced technical readiness separately from them.
Carrier aircraft. The Pakistani Air Force is armed with aircraft that can carry nuclear bombs: the American F-16 and the French-made Mirage-5. The most likely carrier is the F-16 fighter (tactical
115 radius – up to 1100 km). There are no more than 32 F-16 aircraft in service (out of 40 delivered
USA in 1983-1987). In 1988-1989 Another 71 units were ordered, of which 28 aircraft were manufactured, but were not delivered due to the US imposition of an arms embargo on Pakistan in 1990. In March 2005, the United States lifted the ban on weapons supplies and one can expect that in the near future the fleet of nuclear weapons carrier aircraft will be replenished with several dozen F16s.
Ballistic missiles. Pakistan's ballistic missile program has been underway since the early 1980s. and has two areas of work: liquid and solid fuel rockets. In most cases, their design is based on foreign developments - the PRC and the DPRK. Ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads:
short-range - "Hatf-3" (another name - " Ghaznavi"), as well as "Hatf-4" (" Shahin-1»);
medium range - “Hatf-5” (“ Gauri-1"), "Hatf-5A" (" Gauri-2"), "Hatf-6" (" Shahin-2"). The main characteristics of the missiles are given in table. 4.16.
BR "Ghaznavi"
BR "Gauri"
BR "Shahin"
BR "Shahin"
BR "Gauri"
Table 4.16 Characteristics of Pakistani ballistic missiles
The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, simultaneously with the creation of nuclear weapons, planned to use them in various combat conditions and to destroy enemy targets at various distances. Taking into account the solution to these problems, Islamabad also developed various options for means of delivering nuclear warheads - from aircraft to ballistic missiles.
Among the means of delivering nuclear weapons, the F-16 aircraft manufactured in the United States should be considered. Although the Pakistani Air Force will be able to use French Mirage V or Chinese A-5 aircraft in this case. Twenty-eight F-16A (single-seat) and 12 F-16B (two-seat) were delivered between 1983 and 1987. At least eight of them are no longer in service.
In 1985, the US Congress passed the Pressler Amendment, aimed at prohibiting Pakistan from building an atomic bomb. Under this amendment, Pakistan could not receive economic and military assistance unless the US President could certify that Islamabad did not possess a nuclear device. This also applied to possible means of delivering nuclear weapons. However, although there was ample evidence indicating that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapons, Presidents Reagan and Bush Sr. turned a blind eye to it, mainly to increase activity against the USSR in the Afghan conflict. After the war in Afghanistan ended, sanctions were finally imposed on Pakistan. This happened on October 6, 1990. In March 2005, George W. Bush agreed to the sale of F-16s to Pakistan. At the first stage, these deliveries included 24 F-16 aircraft.
It should also be noted that, according to Press trust of India, in March 2005, production of the joint Pakistani-Chinese fighter JF-17 officially began in Pakistan. At the aviation enterprise in the city of Kamra, where the aircraft will be produced, a solemn ceremony was held to mark this event. The country's President Pervez Musharraf took part in it.
With the help of Chinese specialists, the F-16 will be modernized for use as a carrier of nuclear weapons. First of all, they will be equipped with squadrons 9 and 11 at the Sargodha airbase, 160 km northwest of Lahore.
The F-16 has a range of more than 1,600 km and can be increased further by upgrading its fuel tanks. Given the weight and payload size limitations of the F-16, the bomb likely weighs approximately 1,000 kg, and it is most likely that the nuclear warhead is suspended in full operational readiness at one or even several Pakistani air bases.
Note that, in principle, assembled nuclear bombs or their components specifically for such aircraft can be stored in an ammunition depot near Sargodha.
Alternatively, nuclear weapons could be stored near the Afghan border. This option is also possible, but for specialists this information is a kind of distraction, because there are clear obligations of the Pakistani authorities to the United States about the non-deployment of nuclear components in the territories adjacent to Afghanistan.
Pakistan's nuclear delivery vehicle is the Ghauri missile, although other missiles in the Pakistani military could be upgraded to carry a nuclear warhead. Ghauri-1 was successfully tested on April 6, 1998, over a distance of 1,100 km, probably with a payload of up to 700 kg. Experts said the missile was launched near the town of Jhelum in northeastern Pakistan, 100 km southeast of Islamabad, and hit its intended target near Quetta in the southwest.
The Ghauri-2 two-stage ballistic missile was tested on April 14, 1999, three days after the Indian Agni-2 missile was tested. The launch was carried out from a mobile launcher at Dina, near Jhelum, and the rocket landed at Jiwani, near the southwest coast, after an eight-minute flight.
A third version of the Ghauri, with an unconfirmed range of 2500–3000 km, is in development, but was already tested on August 15, 2000.
There is information that there is also a Khataf-V Ghauri missile, the test of which was allegedly carried out in early June 2004. It is said to have a flight range of 1.5 thousand km and can deliver any charge weighing up to 800 kg. The location of the trial was not disclosed. It was as if Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf was present. This was the second test of such a missile in a week(1).
The choice of the name "Ghauri" (2) is very symbolic. The Muslim Sultan Mahammad Ghauri defeated the Hindu ruler Praitvi Chauhan in 1192. Moreover, "Praithvi" is the name that India gave to its short-range ballistic missile.
Using its political intrigue with Beijing against India, Islamabad managed to obtain not just M-11 missiles, but also documentation for their production and maintenance. Since 1992, 30 or more M-11 missiles have been delivered to Pakistan from China. Subsequently, Beijing's assistance also manifested itself in the construction of missile maintenance and storage facilities. Therefore, Pakistan can produce its own Tarmuk missile, based on the M-11, which it has done quite successfully.
The war with India is a more than real factor, which is the highest priority of the entire economic and political life of Pakistan. This thought occupied and occupies the heads of the generals of Islamabad, Delhi and Beijing. That is why billions of dollars are spent on the production of already technically developed delivery vehicles and the same amount of money is spent on the creation of new missile systems. In particular, the Chinese M-9 Shaheen-1 (Eagle) missile, redesigned in Pakistan, has a flight range of 700 km and can carry a payload of 1000 kg. Pakistan conducted the initial flight test of the Shaheen from the coastal town of Sonmiani on April 15, 1999.
At the March 23 parade in 2000, Islamabad displayed the Shaheen-2, a two-stage medium-range missile, as well as a missile with a range of 2,500 km capable of carrying a 1,000-kg payload. The missile was transported on a mobile launcher with 16 wheels. It is possible that both missiles could carry nuclear warheads.
In November 2000, Pakistan decided to place its key nuclear institutions under the control of the National Nuclear Weapons Control Committee. The new government, installed in February 2000, set as its goal the creation of an effective nuclear command and control system.
The events of September 11, 2000 served as a reason to strengthen measures against the use of nuclear weapons by terrorists. Pakistan, as a loyal and more than devoted ally of the United States, immediately strengthened the security of storage facilities with nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles.
According to press reports, Pakistan's military moved nuclear weapons components to new secret sites within two days of September 11, 2000. General Pervez Musharraf took several active measures to organize the security of maintaining the country's nuclear arsenal. Thus, in particular, six new secret storage and storage facilities for nuclear weapons components were installed.
In early March 2004, Pakistan tested a medium-range ballistic missile that could easily hit any Indian city.
Pakistan's Ministry of Defense said in a statement that the test of the Shaheen-2 two-stage missile was successful. According to Reuters, the creation of Pakistani science and engineering can carry a nuclear warhead at a distance of up to 2,000 km(3). Pakistan said it considered the missile test sufficient to deter aggression and "prevent military pressure."
India was warned about the tests in advance. Let us note that at the beginning of March 2004, India entered into an agreement with Israel to purchase the Falcon airborne radar station. The system can detect aircraft from several kilometers away and intercept radio transmissions over large parts of Pakistan, including the disputed state of Kashmir.
In the first ten days of October 2004, tests of Hatf-5 (Ghauri) medium-range ballistic missiles were carried out, during which all the conditional targets of the alleged enemy were successfully hit.
This rocket runs on liquid fuel and, as some agencies note, was developed based on Korean technology (4). This missile is capable of carrying a nuclear charge and covering a distance of up to 1,500 km.
In April 2006, it was reported that Islamabad had conducted new tests of the Hatf-6 medium-range ballistic missile with an increased range of up to 2,500 km. These tests, according to the Pakistani military, were successful. As noted in one of the reports, “the tests were carried out to confirm a number of additional technical parameters, in addition to those that were verified during the last launch, carried out in March 2005”(5).
In Pakistan, the means of delivering nuclear weapons, unlike India, are limited to the air force and missiles, which continue to be improved with the help of China.
In its technical equipment, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has reached full parity with the United States of India and is already ahead of its neighbor in some types of delivery.
The expected evolution of the technical development of Pakistan's rocket industry allows us to conclude that intercontinental ballistic missiles will appear in its arsenal in the very near future.