Silk Road of China on the map. Russian experts are full of optimism. Kazakhstan: Astana - business card

A freight train carrying dozens of carriages arrives at Alashankou Station in China's Xinjiang Uyghur region. Here the locomotive and cars will be removed from the rails and moved to a wider platform. A few hours later, the train with different wheels, but the same cargo, ends up in the village of Dostyk in the Alma-Ata region of Kazakhstan.

From here the train will have to travel west for more than a week: through all of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, to eventually reach the European Union. This is what the New Silk Road looks like - a unique trade route that connected the western regions of China with Russia and Europe. Millennial trading history received its technological continuation.

By sea - cheaper, by land - faster

Since the time of Marco Polo, the bulk of goods from China to Europe have been transported by ship. The route through the Yellow Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea has proven its reliability and accessibility: Chinese entrepreneurs are accustomed to loading everything into containers that arrive in Europe a month and a half later.

The 21st century has given the system a real test of strength. Fast Internet, the development of aviation and other signs of the modern world have turned the 50-day delivery period from “quite normal” to “too slow”. People in Asia and Europe began to search alternative ways sending goods.

The obvious solution was the Great Silk Road - the historical route along which China and Europe exchanged knowledge and goods even before our era. Now the western regions of China, Kazakhstan and Russia are located on the site of the traditional nomadic road. All these countries are desperate to establish cooperation, which is hampered by poor regional connectivity and a lack of transport infrastructure.

In such conditions, the creation of one of the most large-scale projects of the 21st century began - the New Silk Road. These are roads and railways that unite the transport systems of several states into a common network. It turned out that delivery by land from Chinese Lianyungang to German Duisburg or Dutch Rotterdam takes only two weeks - three times shorter than the sea route.

The idea turned out to be so attractive that at the “One Belt, One Road” international summit, more than 30 heads of state, including Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev, came to visit Chinese leader Xi Jinping. At this forum, politicians agreed to build a global transport corridor that would connect China with Western countries. By 2030, China will invest $3 trillion in this project. It is expected that in a few years almost 100 Eurasian states will join the construction of the New Silk Road.

All roads lead to Kazakhstan

In Soviet times, the key transport artery for the Asian part of the country was the Trans-Siberian Railway - perhaps the most famous and longest railway on the planet. Cargo is still moving along this road, but the isolation of the Trans-Siberian Railway within Russia discourages Chinese partners. The main reason is the long length of the route. The Trans-Siberian Railway neatly skirts all border areas, which makes the journey along this route too long.

Calculations have shown that laying a route through Kazakhstan speeds up the delivery of goods by at least a third. In addition, China is actively developing its western provinces, which need new markets. The Trans-Siberian Railway is connected only to the eastern regions of China, which means that connecting the western regions to existing rails will still require a new road. And it also goes through Kazakhstan.

The strategic location of Kazakhstan between Europe and Asia predetermined the key role of this country in the New Silk Road project. Whatever route was discussed, Kazakhstan always remained in the spotlight - and as a result, it received two alternative roads through its territory. Distance of international rally raid " Silk Road" covers several options: participants in this race annually experience different ways transport links between Russia and China.

The southern route takes trains to the Caspian Sea, from where cargo is delivered to Baku via Aktau (formerly Aktyubinsk). There Chinese goods they are loaded back into the cars, and the train continues its march west through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. This branch of the New Silk Road is good for countries Southern Europe. However, dependence on sea crossings across the Caspian Sea makes the route vulnerable: too a large number of transfers have a negative impact on the commercial attractiveness of the project.

Russia closes the northern version of the New Silk Road: here cargo goes through Yekaterinburg, Moscow and further to the west. The system has been developed and is functioning successfully - cargo transportation turnover amounts to tens of thousands of tons. The main obstacle is the different train gauges in China and the CIS. The parties did not agree on the creation of identical rails for freight trains, and therefore, every time the border between China and Kazakhstan is crossed, the locomotive has to be moved from a narrow platform to a wide one.

However, there is another option for the overland route - along a regular asphalt road. The Russian part of such a route occupies 3.8 thousand km: especially for the New Silk Road in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and other regions through which the route passes, new road surface, resistant to regular heavy cargo flights.

Super-fast camels

Existing versions of the New Silk Road are far from the final point in the revival historical route. Right now, working groups in China, Kazakhstan and Russia are creating a project for high-speed communication between the three countries. Superfast trains already operate in all three countries, but for now they only operate on domestic passenger routes. For example, in China you can take an ultra-high-speed train from Beijing to Tianjin, and in Russia from Moscow to Nizhny Novgorod.

Such trains do not yet travel across the border - this requires large investments in the construction of new infrastructure. Perhaps this is the main difficulty that still helps sea transportation to maintain its dominance over land delivery methods. Ships from China continue to sail around the Arabian Peninsula and land at European ports. To defeat such a competitor, the New Silk Road will take time. The time it already saves at every stage of cargo transportation.

The New Silk Road will be paved with big money

The topic of the New Silk Road from the Middle Kingdom to Asia, Africa and Western Europe is now probably more of concern not to journalists, but to economists. Although for Russia and a number of other countries the idea of ​​​​becoming a global Chinese transit country warms the ears, it burns the pocket. The intercontinental superconstruction so far only promises boundless prospects, but it already requires almost astronomical expenses. At the same time, the project has quite enough risks. First of all, these are the risks of globalization and the question of whether China will remain the same “world factory” after a decade or whether production will be distributed in some other way, which, for example, is already observed in America, when Trump demands the return of jobs, technology and power back to their homeland. That is, it may turn out that there will suddenly be nothing special to transport along this “road”. I analyzed the financial and economic aspects of this project especially for FederalPress. CEO holding AsstrA-Associated Traffic AG Dmitry Lagun:

“The cost of Russian capital investments, as well as a forecast of their return, is currently impossible due to the fact that information on the volume of investments in this project by the Russian Federation is not published in the media. The main initiator and investor of the New Silk Road project is China. Some publications mention information that by 2030, investments will be made in the project three trillion US dollars. The Silk Road Fund is the main financing platform, with investments estimated at US$40 billion, focusing on infrastructure investments. The fund operates in accordance with Chinese law, and foreign investors can participate in its projects. The capital of the Asian Bank and the BRICS Bank can also be attracted to finance projects; the infrastructure investments of each of them will potentially amount to $100 billion.

Beijing says the project will build or network roads, railways, ports, oil and gas pipelines and power plants on routes that will link China with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, Africa and Europe. Along with the creation of a railway connection between China and Russia, an expressway project connecting Europe and Western China.

Infographics from the Kommersant newspaper

In Russia, the project is being implemented Rosavtodor. The section from St. Petersburg to Moscow (M-11 road) is estimated at 373 billion rubles. The section of the highway from M-11 to the Central Ring Road (TsKAD). Construction of two sections (1st and 5th) of the Central Ring Road is already underway, the rest will be awarded in concession competitions in October 2017. The expressway, which should run between the existing federal roads M-7 Volga and M-5 Ural through Gus-Khrustalny, Murom, Ardatov, south of Nizhny Novgorod, will cost about 400 billion rubles. In the territory Tatarstan The 297-kilometer Shali-Bavly highway is already under construction, and the section is about 40 km long. is already operational. The highway will connect the existing federal highways M-7 and M-5, thus increasing their connectivity. The cost of this project has not been announced.

In the Republic Bashkortostan They are going to build a 282-kilometer section of the international transport corridor (ITC) from the village of Bavly to the city of Kumertau, its cost is estimated at 156 billion rubles. IN Orenburg region, it is planned to build a 172-kilometer section bypassing Orenburg, Saraktash and to the borders with Kazakhstan– 84 billion rubles. Thus, the entire Russian section of the ITC from St. Petersburg to the borders with Kazakhstan should be ready by 2023, some of its sections will be launched by 2018. In addition, by 2020, the M-1 Belarus highway will be reconstructed, which should provide direct access for goods transported along the corridor to the Republic of Belarus and Western European countries.

Impact of the path on the regional economy

International transport corridors should serve not only the purposes of organizing transit and export transportation, but also become the basis for closer economic consolidation and economic development surrounding regions. Most of the areas through which the route runs are united primarily by their common feature, as an inland macro-position in the depths of the Eurasian continent at a great distance from sea and ocean routes. By optimizing economic relations, it is possible to reduce average range transportation and thereby reduce transport costs. Consequently, cross-border economic interaction based on a common transport and communication infrastructure can bring very great results.

The direct effects of the implementation of the international transport corridors under consideration include a sharp reduction in railway tariffs, to the level of sea transport freight rates and, possibly, lower. This will lead to a reduction in transport costs and transportation costs, and ultimately to the economic “bringing closer” of inland regions ( Siberia and the Urals of Russia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Shaanxi of China), and Central Asian countries And Kazakhstan to the leading centers of the world, sea and ocean ports and thereby eliminating one of the main inhibitors of development. There will be a significant increase in the capacity of highways, accompanied by an increase in traffic volumes, freight and passenger turnover, which is necessary for closer economic consolidation and economic recovery of the surrounding territories. Russia, China, Kazakhstan and other countries will be guaranteed to receive significant income from performing the functions of a transport bridge between Western Europe and East Asia.

The indirect effect of the implementation of these megaprojects is expected to be even more significant, which consists in the strongest multiplicative general economic and social impact of international corridors on the vast areas adjacent to them. Thus, within the influence zone of the Trans-Siberian Railway are located the most developed, inhabited and populated areas of Siberia, the conditions and capabilities of which are not fundamentally different from the average Russian ones. The construction of the superhighway will secure the southern part of Siberia, which has relatively comfortable natural and climatic conditions, as a territory of priority for powerful integrated development. The creation of the Great Silk Road on a modern railway basis will be effective option inclusion of the hitherto lagging inland northwestern and central parts of China into the zone of advanced development. The formation of the Northern Corridor of the Silk Road can bring a particularly noticeable effect to Kazakhstan, since rich resource areas and large urban agglomerations fall within the zone of its stimulating influence ( Astana And Karaganda) in the east and north of the country.

The creation of a highway in a new direction will ensure an increase in the density of the federal road network and will give a tremendous impetus to the development of at least eight Russian regions through whose territory this section of the corridor will pass: Moscow, Vladimir, Nizhny Novgorod, Chuvash Republic, Republic of Mordovia, Ulyanovsk, Samara Region, Republic of Tatarstan . We are talking about the formation of essentially a new belt of investment activity, within which a large number of industrial, logistics, and recreational facilities will appear and new jobs will be created.

Project difficulties

The main complaint about the project is vagueness of initiative. It is still unknown how many countries will become participants in the New Silk Road, and what targeted projects should be implemented within the framework of the initiative. Even the geographical scope of the Belt and Road project is not fully defined - all existing maps of transport corridors are unofficial. The project does not specify KPIs (key performance indicators), that is, it is not clear how many roads should be built, how many containers should be shipped, and so on.

The main difficulty of this project is its cost. The full implementation of the New Silk Road will require enormous costs, which can only be covered by investments from all countries whose interests are affected by this project.

Along with the big financial costs The difficulty of implementation also lies in the long period of implementation of the project. Thus, the media mentions that the project completion date is 2030.

Another issue is economic feasibility. Transporting goods by sea is much cheaper than by rail. In addition, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China, only 20% of trains from the EU to China are filled with goods, the rest return home empty. This is explained by the fact that one of the main items of Chinese imports from the EU country is mechanical engineering products. The Indian authorities criticize the Chinese project for the fact that with its loans China is dragging the countries participating in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) into debts that they cannot repay. The Chinese themselves Lately began to invest less in countries where the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” project has already begun. In 2016, the volume of foreign direct investment in these 53 countries decreased by 2%. Chinese bankers admit that many of the projects in which the state has asked them to invest are not profitable.

Infographics ria.ru

What will change

Freight flows are gradually changing. The main mode of transport in transit between East Asia and Western Europe, both previously and currently, is sea ​​transport, providing more than 90% of the corresponding cargo transportation. However, recently, the share of rail transportation is gradually increasing. Using railways, the delivery time of goods from China to Europe is significantly reduced. If the project continues to be implemented at a good pace, then cargo flows may shift towards Central Asia. The transport and logistics network of Central Asia will expand and become more attractive.”

"One Belt" and "Silk Road": at least two routes will pass through Russia

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BEIJING, May 13 - RIA Novosti, Zhanna Manukyan. More than three years have passed since Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at Nazarbayev University in Astana, first mentioned the idea of ​​​​creating the Silk Road Economic Belt. During this time, the concept, which is now called “one belt - one road”, became known and talked about in many countries. Moreover, in the coming two days, leaders of about 30 countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as more than a thousand experts and representatives of international organizations, will gather in Beijing for a special international forum to discuss ways to implement this idea.

The attitude towards the Chinese concept of building the Silk Road Economic Belt, which still remains quite vague, is ambiguous in the world. China is positioning it as a chance to advance global economic cooperation that will benefit all countries involved. Skeptics see hegemonic plans and a desire to increase their influence in the Chinese initiative, comparing it with the Marshall Plan.

The beginning of the way

In September 2013, when Xi Jinping in his speech, recalling the history of the ancient Silk Road, also spoke about the need to improve cross-border transport infrastructure, about China’s willingness to participate in the creation of transport networks connecting East, West and South Asia, which would create favorable conditions for economic development of the region. The President of the People's Republic of China also spoke about the advisability of simplifying trade and investment rules to eliminate trade barriers and increase the speed and quality of economic transactions in the region.

In general, the idea of ​​the “one belt and road” is to create infrastructure and establish relationships between the countries of Eurasia. It includes two key areas of development: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. We are talking about creating a trade corridor for direct supplies of goods from east to west on preferential terms. This economic corridor should connect the Asia-Pacific region in the east with developed European countries in the west. The countries involved have a population of over 3 billion and a total GDP of approximately $21 trillion.

The initiative involves the creation of six component economic corridors: Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Eurasian Land Bridge. This goal is expected to be achieved through the construction of roads, ports, bridges and other infrastructure facilities, as well as the conclusion of agreements on free trade zones.

In 2014, China announced that it would allocate $40 billion to create the Silk Road Fund, which would finance Belt and Road projects. In addition, in January 2016, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, initiated by China, began operating in Beijing.

According to Chinese media reports and estimates, since 2013, more than 100 countries and international organizations have responded positively to the initiative. Within its framework, about 50 intergovernmental cooperation agreements were signed. Chinese companies have invested about 50 billion and built 56 trade and economic cooperation zones in 20 Belt and Road countries, creating a total of 180 thousand jobs for residents of these countries.

Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the State Reform and Development Committee, said ahead of the forum that China's total overseas investment in the next five years will be about $600-800 billion. At the same time, the bulk of the investment will go to countries along the Belt and Road.

"Pros and cons"

Despite China's seemingly noble goals, some experts call China's Belt and Road Initiative a "modern version of America's Marshall Plan" aimed at spreading its influence and establishing hegemony.

The main publication of the Communist Party of China, the People's Daily, in a published commentary in response to this, stated that “Western commentators are looking at the initiative with Cold War prejudices.

“Focused on responsibility, win-win cooperation and sincere pursuit of common development, the Belt and Road Initiative has provided the world with China's answer to today's challenges—a balanced, fair and comprehensive development model...Openness, inclusiveness and mutual benefit are the features of the Belt and Road Initiative “Thanks to which she won the support of the international community,” the publication writes.

Many European countries have openly expressed support for the Belt and Road Initiative, including European diplomacy chief Federica Mogherini and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The UK became the first developed Western economy to express a desire to join the AIIB.

Leaders of several EU countries have confirmed their participation in the upcoming forum. However, as the South China Morning Post writes, citing European diplomats in Beijing, they have little idea what China’s idea means, and agreed to take part in order not to spoil relations and to get more information about the project. "It's been three years since Xi Jinping announced the initiative, but we are still trying to understand what it means and what should we do about it?" — the publication quotes a European diplomat who wished to remain anonymous.

European diplomats, as the publication writes, argue that the leaders of their countries do not have high expectations regarding the outcome of the upcoming summit. They just want to know more about this initiative.

The United States and its main ally in Asia, Japan, remain aloof from the Chinese project. Neither the US nor Japan have joined the AIIB and the leaders of these countries will also not attend the upcoming forum. Only on Friday it became known that the United States had finally decided to send a representative and that he would be a member of the Council national security, responsible for Asia, Matthew Pottinger.

Expert of the international discussion club "Valdai", director of the Institute of History, Archeology and Ethnography of Peoples Far East FEB RAS Viktor Larin believes that the “one belt, one road” project still has more geopolitics than economics.

“I believe that the One Belt, One Road project is, first of all, geopolitical, and only then economic. Secondly, as an economic project, it is aimed primarily at the development of the western regions of China. Thirdly, it is too early to wait for specific results, because very little time has passed. The fourth thesis: the project itself, if we take into account Chinese foreign policy concepts, is a continuation of the same policy: Deng Xiaoping’s policy of openness, Jiang Zemin’s policy of “going outward.” As China grows, he we need more and more markets, more and more raw materials. This is the same idea, which today has received a new, quite successful form - “one belt - one road,” Larin told RIA Novosti.

According to the expert, “the Chinese project has more geopolitics than economics, because the main idea of ​​China’s geopolitical doctrines is a peaceful environment, and a peaceful environment can be created primarily by economic methods - China is 100% sure of this.” According to Larin, Russia is also interested in this. This is the point of contact. When specific interests appear, they sometimes do not coincide and diverge greatly. However, they are agreed upon during the negotiation process.

Alexander Gabuev, head of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, in turn notes that China is not imposing its project on neighboring countries. “It is based on the fact that China has great economic power, huge capital reserves, vast experience in infrastructure construction, large markets, etc. And it is ready to provide this to the outside world in order to develop together,” he said in the conversation from RIA Novosti Gabuev.

Answering the question whether fears that only China would benefit from the Silk Road project were justified, he expressed the opinion that this would “depend on the skill of the negotiators and on how they know how to defend their economic interests.”

Russia on the Silk Road

In May 2015, the leaders of Russia and China adopted a joint statement on the combination of two concepts - the concept of building the Silk Road economic belt and the concept of developing the Eurasian Economic Union.

Gabuev notes that the Russian side’s expectations from the implementation of the Chinese Silk Road project have not yet been met. “Russia hasn’t seen much in the Belt and Road so far, since all expectations that a lot of cheap money or politically motivated money will come have not come true,” the RIA Novosti expert said.

According to Gabuev, “the only place where large investments came into Russia was the investment in Yamal LNG and Sibur through the Silk Road Fund, but rather China used the fund as a financial wallet, not connected with the global financial system and immune from American sanctions.” . He noted that negotiations are also underway to conclude an agreement to reduce non-tariff barriers between Eurasian Union and China, but “they (negotiations) will last for several years.”

As Larin in turn notes, Russia and China have general idea— cooperation within the framework of a single large Eurasia, but with specific projects it is “difficult.” “It’s harder with specific projects. There are regular, incessant attempts to find one, two, five, twentieth points of contact and through specific projects to move towards a greater goal,” he added.

Executive Secretary of the Business Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Sergei Kanavsky believes that the project to build a new Silk Road opens up great potential for Russia in the future.

“The potential is huge, the potential is great, interesting. It’s all a question of initiative, of elaboration, of protecting one’s own interests, of finding common ground for synergy and not for disunity,” he said in a conversation with RIA Novosti. At the same time, he recalled that the project is in the development stage, the main development paths are being determined.

In general, Kanavsky noted that the SCO Business Council considers the initiative to create the Silk Road Economic Belt as part of the general trends in Euro-Asian economic cooperation.

The past two decades of rapid economic growth in China have transformed it into a superpower. With the coming to power of a new leadership led by Xi Jinping, the PRC has stopped hiding its foreign policy ambitions. The project to create the New Silk Road is a logical continuation of China’s policy for last years. The first steps to realize the dream have already been taken: financial resources have been allocated and agreements have been developed with key countries. The plan also has several opponents from among the major world powers. By implementing the project, China will solve not only a number of internal problems, but will also have a global impact on the economic picture of the world. How will the New Silk Road go?

Grand plan

Not long ago, Foreign Minister Wang Yi defined the concept for foreign policy China's "One Belt - One Dream", according to which it is planned to build a New Silk Road from Asia to Europe. At the beginning of 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping presented a plan to create the Silk Road. As part of the project, it is planned to form a giant single economic belt consisting of infrastructure facilities in many countries. The New Silk Road will pass through Central Asia, Russia, Belarus, and Europe. The sea route will follow the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. An option with routes through African countries is being considered.

The PRC is going to invest more than $40 billion in the project from a special fund. $50 billion has already been allocated by the Asian Bank. The funds will be used for the construction of railways, ports and other facilities, and for the development of relations between the countries participating in the project. The Wantchinatimes resource estimated the total investments of the PRC at $22 trillion.

Attempts to revive the Silk Road have already been made by Europe and the United States. China was the last to address this idea, but has done much more to implement it. Thanks to impressive financial capabilities and “soft economic aggression,” it will be possible to create a safe transit that will be used by many states. Today, China is actively discussing infrastructure construction projects with participating countries. A more specific scheme for the new Silk Road and the results of lengthy negotiations will become known in late March at the Boao Forum (South Chinese province of Hainan).

Silk Road concept

Today, China supplies machine tools, equipment, electrical and high-tech products to the world market. In terms of length (16 thousand km), the country ranks first in the world. The ancient Silk Road was exclusively a Chinese transport corridor. Today, the PRC announces the creation of an international economic platform.

The initiative to unite the Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is being carried out within the framework of the One Belt, One Road program. The concept of the New Silk Road is to implement the plan through five interrelated elements:

• unified infrastructure;
• political coherence;
• monetary and financial flows;
• trade relations;
• humanitarian communication.

On this basis, full-scale cooperation is promoted, strengthening mutual trust between countries, developing economic integration and cultural tolerance. The implementation of the project as a whole was planned along three routes:

• "China - Central Asia - Russia - Europe".
• "China - Central and Western Asia".
• "China - Southeast Asia - South Asia".

New Silk Road. Route

The scale of the project is impressive not only in terms of investment, but also in terms of geography. The entire “path” is divided into two routes (by land and by sea). The land route begins in Xi'an (Shaanxi province), passing through the whole of China, follows to the city of Urumqi, crosses such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey. Then it goes through the Bosphorus Strait to Eastern Europe, to Russia. The New Silk Road, the route of which will pass through the territory of several European countries, will proceed from Rotterdam to Italy.

An equally grandiose sea route begins in the city of Quanzhou (Fuzzian Province), follows through large southern Chinese cities, through the Strait of Malacca, ending in Kuala Lumpur. Crossing the Indian Ocean, it stops in Colombo (Sri Lanka), in the Maldives, and reaches Nairobi (Kenya). Next, the route passes along the Red Sea through Djibouti, through the Suez Canal to Athens (Greece), to Venice (Italy) and connects with the land Silk Road.

Economic tasks of the “path”

As the largest exporter, China greatly influences world economy. According to forecasts, the Silk Road is expected to generate $21 trillion in trade turnover per year, which could increase China's share of global GDP to 50%.

It is assumed that the New Silk Road, the construction of which is already in full swing, will redirect the flow of exports of goods and capital to regions that until recently remained behind. international trade. In recent decades, China has been actively cooperating with Asian countries. Investments made by Chinese state-owned companies are for many developing countries perhaps the only opportunity to maintain independence among the great powers.

From an economic point of view, the benefit of the project for China lies in the reduction of logistics costs. For countries participating in the Silk Road - in attracting additional funds. An example of such cooperation based on Chinese investments is the iHavan project in the Maldives (in the future this will be one of the important points on the map of the maritime Silk Road).

Regional tasks

China's presence in Central Asia and Africa is not purely economic nature. At the regional level for China priority political and economic stability remains in the border regions: Eastern, Central and South-East Asia. The main barrier to the spread of the Chinese economic phenomenon was the “Chinese threat” factor. It is planned to reduce the threat to “no” using the strategy of “soft power” and strengthening the cultural influence of the PRC. The number of students from the Asian region studying at Chinese universities reflects the degree of penetration

China's energy security largely depends on its control over the sea and land Silk Road. As the world's largest importer of energy resources, China is 100% dependent on sea supplies. The threat of an “oil embargo” constantly hangs over the country. The US used this tactic against Japan before the war.

The New Silk Road will unite many countries, including opponents of the United States (Russia, Pakistan, Iran). The states participating in the path can become a significant political force. An important task associated with the creation of the Silk Road is the protection of Chinese investments. Through trading points controlled by the PRC, it is possible to implement not only commercial, but also anti-terrorist goals. From time to time, information appears in the media about the creation of a Chinese network of “String of Pearls” military bases in the Indian Ocean.

The impact of the project on the internal politics of the PRC

Large international projects are also becoming a priority in China’s domestic politics. The New Silk Road will help resolve several internal problems.

1. The Pro-China Economic Belt is a profitable investment project with high returns and long-term benefits.
2. Passing through Western China, the belt will help solve the problems of uneven development of the country, cultural and economic integration of the western regions.
3. The construction of infrastructure facilities is a source of new jobs for state-owned companies in China, which have solid human resources.

Central Asia and Russia

The territories of Russia and Central Asia, which unite the West and the East, are significant transit arteries for China. Today, China is the world's factory. They have been considering the idea of ​​using Central Asia for economic purposes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was then that systematic work began in in this direction: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, raising the issue of economic cooperation. It was important not only to level out the internal economic situation, but also to prepare a corridor to Europe through Central Asia and Russia.

It is not so important where the New Silk Road will take place: in any case, it will become a large-scale “shake-up” of the infrastructure of Central Asia and will significantly expand cargo flows from China. The success of the tactics of unification and stability, the only possible one on the Silk Road, has been proven historically. Revolutions and wars between nations led to its decline, and navigation to its lack of demand. Subsequent attempts to resume the route without unification at the regional level came to nothing.

Central Asia has always been a sphere of interest for Russia. Rapprochement between China and Russian Federation- quite a difficult question. It is not yet clear how the Silk Road will affect Customs Union and SCO. Much depends on the position of Kazakhstan, regional center

Russia's role in the project

On the ancient Silk Road, China was the only exporter. The modern path differs from its predecessor precisely in the desire for integration. At the negotiations in Moscow, China for the first time proposed to Russia to use the infrastructure of the economic corridor for trade purposes. Russia will apparently gain access to ports on the New Silk Road and take part in the transit of goods. Of course, in this way the PRC solves one of its important tasks - to give impetus to the development and inclusion of Western territories in the international economy.

Russia on the New Silk Road is so far only an accomplice, a supplier of raw materials, and a transit country. Development along the “path” requires a holistic strategy. Government and corporate plans of individual companies are not enough for this; a single one is required. Thanks to China, we have formed positive image this project, but there are not many really positive aspects for Russia.

After the collapse of the USSR, we left Central Asia and solved internal problems. China, for the purpose of integration, created Shanghai organization cooperation. Small states were afraid of the PRC, so security was the order of the day. China raised economic issues regarding free trade and opening borders. The SCO would have been a monopolist in the region if not for the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union, which showed that Russia has the will and strategic plans for Central Asia. Today, the SCO and the EAEU are the only projects in Central Asia, and the second has more prospects for development, so China is negotiating.

Xi Jinping voiced several proposals for uniting the future economic belt and the EAEU. The idea was supported by V. Putin. The President expressed the opinion that both projects together will become a powerful impetus for economic activity in Eurasia. The projects will be united on the basis of the SCO, which also puts China in the position of leader.

Prospects for the project in Russia

The New Silk Road project will help increase trade turnover and develop Russia’s own land and sea transport network. To do this, it is necessary to create an associated infrastructure. Today the Russian government is saving the budget, including cutting funds allocated for construction.

The connection of Russia to the route as a whole depends on the degree of development of the domestic railway infrastructure. It was planned that the New Silk Road through Russia would go along the Middle, Southern Urals and northern regional territories, where construction of the Northern Latitudinal Railway is underway. The possibility of extending the highway through the Polunochnoe - Obskaya line to Kazakhstan and China is being considered. The Northern Urals could be integrated into the “path” by sea or land, but only by fulfilling the conditions for modernizing the railway network.

Sokolov raised the issue of modernizing the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway, which would make it possible to create a high-speed railway line "Moscow - Beijing", but no money is expected. In 2015, according to the plan, funding for the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railways should have amounted to at least 21 billion rubles, but in fact 16 billion were allocated.

One of the options for including Russia in the New Silk Road was rejected along with the termination of the project to build a Crimean port. Crimea could become a strategic trading base and a new entry point for the trade route to Europe. In any case, the Silk Road by land will go through one of the European countries, where it is easy to provoke a change of power and block transit. For example, the South Stream stop in Bulgaria. The presence of a trading base in Crimea will allow redirecting the movement of goods through any of the countries.

New Silk Road bypassing Russia

Ukraine has announced its intention to take part in the Silk Road project as an intermediate link for cargo flows from China to Europe. According to Mikheil Saakashvili, it is more profitable to direct trade flows to the seaport of Ilyichevsk, since logistics through it will take no more than 9 days, and through Russia - 30 days. Saakashvili emphasized that work is already underway on the construction of roads in the EU, and a large bridge is being built across the Dniester estuary.

China has already made significant progress in implementing the basic version of the route: Kazakhstan - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey. The Nomadexpress test container train left China, bypassing Russian territory, traveling 3,500 km in five days - through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea to Kishly station (not far from Baku). The second route of the New Silk Road will pass through Iran, the third (through Russia to Moscow and St. Petersburg) is still being discussed. The last route is more profitable: it is shorter than the other two. In addition, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are members of the EAEU. The issue of Russian participation in the project took a long time to resolve; a declaration of consent was signed in May 2015.

The PRC considers the option of an “independence” to be quite acceptable. The Chinese ambassador announced that Chinese banks are ready to invest $20 billion in the infrastructure of Ukraine. Does this mean that a New Silk Road will appear, bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation? Wait and see. It is quite obvious that China is considering several route options at once, as in ancient times.

The direction “Kazakhstan - Russia - Belarus” is the most profitable for China, but Russia has not joined the concept of the “New Silk Road” and defends its own interests related to the EAEU. Ukraine is indeed convenient for organizing transportation, but is not suitable for large investments due to its instability. The PRC's play with the Square strengthens the Chinese position in negotiations with the Russian Federation. Of course, the route “Kazan - Moscow - St. Petersburg...” on the Silk Road will still be discussed.

The route should become fully operational after the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (Turkey) is put into operation. In mid-October, the head of Azerbaijan Railways CJSC, Javid Gurbanov, called the delivery date November 2016. For now, cargo containers from China delivered to the Kazakh port of Aktau and then on to Baku will proceed from there to the ports of Georgia, and then be transported by container ships to Turkey.

The trial launch of the route took place back in February 2015, Garibashvili spoke at the Tbilisi forum of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” in September. In July, the Nomadexpress test container train traveled along the route Shihezi (China) - Dostyk (Kazakhstan) - Aktau - Alyat (Azerbaijan), covering 3.5 thousand km through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea in five days. It delivered flat cars designed to transport 82 containers weighing 20 tons each.

“The Trans-Asian-Caucasian train can reduce travel time by five times compared to sea transportation. If, for example, sea transport from China requires 40-45 days, then along the new railway route cargo will arrive from China to Georgia within nine days,” he pointed out in his report “The Role of Transport and Transit Corridors in Ensuring international cooperation for sustainable development" (*.pdf) in September this year by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. In the document, he referred to data provided, among other things, by the Georgian government.

In November of this year, cooperation went further: in Istanbul, representatives of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China and Turkey established a joint consortium to transport goods from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. The enterprise included Mishgeng Logistics (China), the Kazakh subsidiary of KTZ Express (the Kazakhstan Temir Zholy railway company), the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company, the Azerbaijani Karvan Logistics and Trans Caucasus Terminals (a subsidiary of the Georgian Railway). Türkiye is represented in the consortium as an associate member. The train that arrived in Tbilisi from China on Sunday was the first test train; the railway operator was a consortium.

As Igbal Huseynov, deputy head of Azerbaijan Railways, suggests, up to 54 million tons of cargo per year can pass along the trans-Caspian route. By 2020, up to 300-400 thousand containers could be delivered to Turkey and Europe this way, he said at the beginning of December at a conference in Odessa. From 2016, the consortium expects to begin transporting goods through Ukraine to Northern and Eastern Europe - the governor of the Odessa region, Mikheil Saakashvili, insists on using the capacity of the Odessa port.

Silk nets

The Trans-Caspian route is not the only promising railway route from China to Europe in development. Since 2011, communication has been established between Chinese Chongqing and German Duisburg: the total length of the route is 11.2 thousand km, and before reaching Germany, chinese train passes through the territory of Kazakhstan, Russia and Poland. Since the launch of communication in this direction, China has transported goods worth a total of $2.5 billion along it. A total of 11 Chinese cities, the largest industrial hubs, have freight rail connections with Europe.

The impetus for the development of infrastructure projects was given by the ambitious concept of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, formulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 during his tour of the countries of Central Asia.

This concept involves the development of economic cooperation on the continent through the construction of transport infrastructure. Increasing its efficiency, coupled with the elimination of trade barriers, should lead to an increase in the volume of mutual trade in the region, as well as increase the role of national currencies, primarily the Chinese yuan, in mutual economic transactions. In addition, the implementation of infrastructure projects should give impetus to the development of China's sparsely populated and economically lagging inland provinces, from Inner Mongolia to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

To develop infrastructure projects, at the initiative of China, a $40 billion Silk Road Fund was established, co-founded by the Central Bank of China, other state banks and state corporations.

Beijing is placing its main bet on railway communication - this industry has been chosen as the main export industry. “It is expected that railways will be the locomotive for increasing the export of Chinese high-tech equipment,” wrote (*.pdf) Deputy Director of IMEMO RAS Vasily Mikheev, Sector Head of the same institute Sergei Lukonin and Korean researcher Jae Sung Hong.

Following the Chinese railway workers, equipment and software manufacturers, providers of engineering and other services, as well as banks, insurance and other companies should come to the regions, experts describe the PRC’s expansion strategy.

“The Silk Road strategy is a strategy to stimulate Chinese exports,” Jonathan Holslag, a professor at the Free University of Brussels, explained to RBC. — Most railways and infrastructure projects built with Chinese assistance serve integral part a trade model in which China has a trade surplus and other countries have trade deficits.” Beijing will work on this strategy for the next 10-15 years.

In addition, according to Mikheev and his colleagues, the tasks of the Silk Road also include ensuring China’s energy security - the country is highly dependent on energy supplies. Thus, in 2013, according to estimates of the Ministry of Land and natural resources China, China's dependence on oil supplies was 57%, and by 2020 this figure could rise to 66% with the prospect of further increase.

At the end of 2013, according to official data, China imported 280 million tons of oil. Of these, 10.17 million tons (86 million barrels) were in Kazakhstan. The raw materials were supplied through a pipeline connecting Central Kazakhstan and North-West China, its length is 745 km. In 2013, Turkmenistan provided 52% of China's gas needs. In 2014, China bought up to 100 billion cubic meters. m of gas from the Central Asian states. In the spring of 2014, it became known that the Chinese oil and gas company CNPC intends to invest $4 billion in an industrial zone in the south of Turkmenistan.

The Russian government this week approved an intergovernmental agreement with China on the purchase of a 9.9% stake in Yamal LNG from NOVATEK, said the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service Igor Artemyev. The buyer was the Silk Road Fund.

Together with Gazprom

In addition, China cooperates with the Russian Gazprom. In May, the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, and the vice-president of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Wang Dongjin, signed an agreement on the basic conditions for gas supplies from Russia to China via the western route.

The framework agreement on supplies via the western route was signed in November 2014 and provides for the annual supply of 30 billion cubic meters to China. m of gas from the fields of Western Siberia via the Altai gas pipeline.

Place of Russia

The Silk Road and the concept promoted by Russia Eurasian integration on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union, despite all the mutual assurances from Beijing and Moscow, can hardly be considered complementary. At the same time, the Chinese leadership constantly emphasizes that the project implies exclusively economic cooperation and does not aim at any political integration.

Economically, the interests of the two projects are already colliding. Thus, Beijing is concerned about the Customs Union created on the initiative of Moscow in the CIS space (the Customs Union, in addition to Russia, it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). The formation of uniform tariffs for the import of Chinese products into these countries may negatively affect the prospects for growth in the volume of mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan with China. As experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development calculated back in 2012, an increase in tariffs by 2% could lead to a reduction in Chinese imports to the CU countries by 2-3%.

As IMEMO notes, the CU is gradually tightening its trade regime with China. In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Commission has repeatedly launched investigations against Chinese manufacturers, imposing anti-dumping duties on them. In 2015 alone, the EEC introduced anti-dumping duties on, among other things, Chinese seamless steel pipes (used for drilling and operating oil and gas wells), truck tires, flat cold-rolled stainless steel products, crawler bulldozers and citric acid.

At the same time, Russia has been losing economic competition to China in Central Asia for several years now. The volume of bilateral trade between China and the countries of Central Asia in 2013 amounted to $50.3 billion, in 2014 against the backdrop of an economic slowdown - $46 billion. At the same time, last year Beijing approved the allocation of an investment package of $30 billion to Astana, Tashkent received a $15 billion deal , the total amount of economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan amounted to $3 billion.

The volume of Russian investments in the region in 2013-2014 amounted to only $15 billion, and the volume of trade turnover, according to Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service, was $30.5 billion in 2013 and $27.8 billion in 2014.

IMEMO experts believe that one of the challenges of the Chinese project is the final transformation of Russia into “player No. 2” in this region. “For the first time, Russia finds itself in the role of a follower player, that is, China will more firmly defend its economic interests,” they argue.

Even the very development of the region’s railway network in the forms in which Beijing sees it could significantly affect the prospects for including the Far Eastern regions of Russia in economic cooperation with Europe. “In the event of the likely passage of the main railway line of the Silk Road along Russian territory through Orenburg or Chelyabinsk, the rest of the Trans-Siberian and BAM will remain unused. Most Kazakhstan will receive transit payments,” IMEMO experts say.

One-man theater

But it is too early to talk about transport and infrastructure breakthroughs in China. In 2014, China's bilateral trade volume with the European Union, according to the European Commission, amounted to €466 billion ($619 billion at the average annual rate). Of this, rail transportation ordered by cargo owners, according to Chinese customs authorities, accounted for only $4.9 billion, The South China Morning Post indicated in November.

Due to many factors, rail communication along this route is unprofitable and inferior to sea transportation, says RBC Stapran. As The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) notes, railroads will never replace shipping. A train can carry at most several hundred containers, while container ships can carry a load of 18 thousand containers.

The maximum cargo weight of a regular 40-foot container is 9.6 tons. The cost of transporting such a container by rail is $8 thousand. Transporting the same container by sea would cost about $3 thousand, and delivery of an equivalent cargo by air would cost $37 thousand, calculated the specialized publication JOC.com.

“The tradeoff between price and speed makes rail shipments viable for high-value goods China exports to Europe, such as laptops, or imports from there, such as car components,” the WSJ noted. In the case of the Chongqing-Duisburg route, China, for example, supplies components for Hewlett Packard products.

Moreover, Stapran argues, if we take the Silk Wind project, then at present this direction is not equipped with the appropriate infrastructure, for example, unloading terminals. “A long road is only a hundredth part of what is needed for efficient and profitable transportation of goods. For now, this can only be considered as a pilot project,” the expert tells RBC.

SCMP concludes that the Silk Road has had a "slow start" so far. Logistics companies have faced difficulties in European cities filling empty containers with goods exported from EU countries. According to China Railways, in the first half of 2015, 200 trains were sent from China to Europe, and only 50 arrived back with cargo.

“Only a few containers are returned within a month, we can’t even fill the train,” the publication quotes Gong Qinghua, sales director of one of the freight carriers operating on the Yiwu (Zheqiang Province) - Madrid route. Eight full trains a month depart from this industrial city specializing in the production of souvenirs towards Spain. There is simply no demand for European products in Yiwu, says Gong.

Another factor is the structure of European imports to China: while it is easy to deliver consumer goods by rail to the EU, reverse direction deliveries of European heavy engineering products to railways cannot be carried out. According to European Commission(*.pdf), in the structure of Chinese exports to the EU in 2014, 12.3% were textile goods (second position after engineering products - 46.6%), and another 9.2% were “miscellaneous finished products.” The European Union exported primarily machinery and equipment (31.8%), and secondarily transport equipment (26.3%). The wariness of Europeans towards Chinese logistics companies also plays a role, SCMP cites the opinion of the head of the consulting company Silk Route Rail, Darryl Hadaway.

According to Li Gang, a fellow at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, rail travel between China and Europe will not be commercially profitable for at least the next three to four years. Until now, this mega-project has been a “one-man show” for Beijing, but the Silk Road is a long-term strategy for China, says Li Gang. According to him, the potential of China's railway connection with Europe is enormous, since relations between China and the EU are "entering a golden era."

With the participation of Alexander Ratnikov